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Airlines in Russia - April 2016

“Aeroflot is clearly benefiting from the retrenchment and/or bankruptcy of competing airlines – both domestic and foreign. From early September 2014 to early 2016, Russian airlines grounded or returned to lessors a total of 254 aircraft, which is 34% of the total fleet operated in 2014. By segments, the entire Russian short-haul fleet was reduced by 27%, the regional fleet by 42% and the long-haul fleet by 55%.”

- Jessica Kelly, Senior Tourism Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • What has been the impact of Russia’s deteriorating economy and geopolitical isolation on the country’s air-transport sector?
  • Who are the key players in the Russian aviation market?
  • How is the LCC sector developing in Russia?
  • What is the outlook for growth in the Russian aviation market?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

    • Data Sources

      • Overview

        • Demographic trend
          • Figure 1: Projected trend in Russia’s population, 2015-2100
          • Figure 2: Airline passengers per capita by selected country/region, 2013 & 2025
        • Economic growth
          • Figure 3: Outlook for GDP growth in Russia, 2014-17
        • Russia’s economy hostage to the oil price
          • Figure 4: Commodity futures price for crude oil Brent, 21 February 2014-19 February 2016
        • Exchange rate
          • Outlook
            • Figure 5: Forecast for US$/RUB exchange rate, 22.02.16
          • Spending on travel and tourism
            • Figure 6: Spending on travel & tourism in Russia, 2014 & 2025
          • Tourist arrivals
            • Figure 7: Tourist arrivals* in Russia, 2010-19
            • Figure 8: Tourist arrivals* in Russia by segment, 2008-14
          • Trend in air passengers
            • Figure 9: Air passengers in Russia, 2008-18
            • Figure 10: Air passenger numbers in Russia by segment, 2009-15
          • Russian airline traffic
            • Sharp drop in November
              • December figures showed a continuing year-on-year decline
                • Figure 11: Trend in domestic Russian air-passenger traffic, December 2015 vs. December 2014
              • Russian airline passenger traffic down by 1.2% in 2015
                • Three out of five carriers grew in 2015
                  • Figure 12: Top 5 Russian airlines, by passengers carried, 2014-15
              • Leading Airports and Airline Market Shares

                  • Figure 13: Top 20 Russian airports for passenger movements in 2015
                • High concentration in Moscow
                  • Seasonality
                    • Holiday traffic down slightly
                      • Figure 14: Russian holidays, January 2016
                    • Sheremetyevo inches past Domodedovo
                      • Figure 15: Annual passengers at Moscow Sheremetyevo and year-on-year growth, 2006-15
                      • Figure 16: Weekly seats by the top 12 airlines at Sheremetyevo for the week commencing 19 November 2015
                    • Tel Aviv tops growth ranking
                      • Figure 17: Weekly seats for the top 12 destinations from Sheremetyevo for the week commencing 19 November 2015
                    • Domodedovo
                      • Figure 18: Weekly seats by the top 12 airlines at Domodedovo for the week commencing 17 July 2015
                    • Vnukovo going private
                      • A fourth airport for Moscow
                        • 20-million capacity by 2020
                          • Share of foreign carriers down to 9.4%
                          • Top 20 Airports for Cargo Traffic

                              • Figure 19: Top 20 airports for cargo transport, 2014-15
                          • Current Market for Airlines in Russia

                            • Foreign airlines deserting the country …
                              • easyJet pulls out of Moscow
                                • Lufthansa cuts back
                                  • SAS and Air Berlin too
                                    • Russia excludes Ukrainian airlines
                                      • Ban on Turkish charter flights
                                        • … but some carriers increasing flights
                                          • Increasing demand from Asia
                                            • Transaero ceases operations
                                              • Figure 20: Transaero’s revenue & debt, 2007- H1/15
                                              • Figure 21: Transaero’s passenger growth (millions), 2002-14
                                            • Purchase offers fell through
                                              • Russian lessors to write down over US$1 billion
                                                • Aeroflot Group
                                                  • Figure 22: Passenger contribution & growth by Aeroflot subsidiary, first 6 months of 2015
                                                  • Figure 23: Aeroflot group operating results, 2014-15
                                                • Fleet
                                                  • Figure 24: Aeroflot Group fleet at 30 June 1015
                                                • Rossiya Airlines gets ex-Transaero fleet and staff
                                                  • Fleet outlook
                                                    • Figure 25: Aircraft delivery schedule according to existing contracts, 30 June 2015
                                                    • Figure 26: Aircraft phase-out schedule in accordance with existing contracts, 30 June 2015
                                                  • S7 Group
                                                    • Figure 27: S7’s code-sharing partner airlines, 2016
                                                  • A technology leader
                                                    • Recent performance
                                                      • Flights from Domodedovo have doubled in eight years
                                                        • Figure 28: S7 Airlines’ weekly departures & non-stop destinations in summer at Moscow Domodedovo, 2006-15
                                                      • Irkutsk tops the list of S7 destinations for ASKs
                                                        • Figure 29: One-way ASKs for S7’s top-12 destinations from Domodedovo for the week commencing 17 July 2015
                                                      • Fleet
                                                        • Figure 30: S7 Group’s aircraft fleet, December 2015
                                                      • UTair Aviation
                                                        • Hard hit by recession and sanctions
                                                          • Kremlin bailout for UTair
                                                            • Fleet reduced
                                                              • Figure 31: UTair fleet*, November 2015
                                                            • Ural Airlines
                                                              • Fleet
                                                                • Figure 32: Ural Airlines fleet, April 2015
                                                              • Nordwind Airlines
                                                                • Fleet
                                                                  • Figure 33: Nordwind Airlines’ fleet, December 2015
                                                                • VIM Airlines
                                                                    • Figure 34: VIM Airlines’ fleet, December 2015
                                                                • What Next?

                                                                    • Aeroflot to consolidate its leading position
                                                                      • Figure 35: Aeroflot Group results for 2014-15*
                                                                    • LCCs to finally get off the ground
                                                                      • Aeroflot’s Pobeda reaches 3 million passengers
                                                                        • A shift in focus towards revenue and profitability
                                                                          • Cyprus to grow in importance
                                                                            • S7 to set up an airline in Cyprus

                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                            To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                            Airlines in Russia - April 2016

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