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Airlines - UK - July 2012

Following an 11.2% drop in the number of passengers uplifted at UK airports between 2007 and 2010, 2011 saw some recovery in the UK airlines market with a 4.5% rise (although this was in comparison to 2010, which was affected by the Icelandic ash-cloud crisis), and Mintel expects further modest growth of 1.5% for 2012.

However, a combination of weak leisure travel demand, high fuel prices and air taxes continues to spell difficulty for the industry, and although the budget sector continues to be the main motor of growth, there are growing consumer and media concerns over ‘stealth pricing’.

This report analyses market trends, consumer preferences and attitudes towards air travel, investigating the core market factors, key players, products and innovations in the industry.

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Issues in the Market

            • To what extent has the low cost model permeated consumer travel attitudes?
              • What is the potential impact of fare increases on people’s flying behaviour?
                • Will aviation lose market share to other travel modes?
                  • Are environmental concerns likely to have any effect on consumer flying behaviour?
                  • Executive Summary

                      • The market
                        • Figure 1: Volume forecast of all passengers uplifted, 2007-17
                      • Uplift in volume
                        • Market factors
                          • Figure 2: Visits abroad by UK residents (000s), 2006-11
                        • Regional troubles
                          • Kerosene concerns
                            • Figure 3: Kerosene-type jet fuel monthly average spot price and USD: GBP monthly average spot exchange rate, Jan 2006-Mar 2012
                          • Charging controversy
                            • Companies, brands and innovation
                              • Budget carriers lead market
                                • Full-service consolidation
                                  • Jet2.com/BA Cityflyer growing fastest
                                    • Low cost reservations
                                      • Virgin gets touchy-feely
                                        • No kids all the way to Kuala
                                          • In the zone
                                            • High tech
                                              • The consumer
                                                • Figure 4: Flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
                                              • Two thirds have flown in past three years
                                                • Figure 5: Type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
                                              • The right to choose
                                                • Figure 6: Most important extras when flying on journeys under four hours, April 2012
                                                • Figure 7: Most important extras when flying on journeys over four hours, April 2012
                                              • Price must be right
                                                • Figure 8: Most important factors in choosing an airline, April 2012
                                              • A quarter have cut back
                                                • Figure 9: Changes in air travel behaviour, April 2012
                                              • Consumers divided over frills
                                                • Figure 10: Attitudes towards air travel, April 2012
                                              • Hassled over-55s
                                                • What we think
                                                • Future Opportunities

                                                    • Trend: Many Mes
                                                      • Trend: Life Hacking
                                                        • 2015 East Meets West
                                                        • Internal Market Environment

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Holiday travel still in doldrums
                                                              • Figure 11: Visits abroad by UK residents, 2006-11
                                                              • Figure 12: Air travel in the last 12 months, 2007-11
                                                            • Frequent fliers take larger share
                                                              • Figure 13: Number of air journeys per year, 2007-11
                                                            • Big two airports bounce back
                                                              • Figure 14: Passenger traffic, by airport, 2006-11
                                                            • Regional decline
                                                              • Airport future uncertain
                                                                • Long-haul slump
                                                                  • Figure 15: Overseas journeys (all purposes), by region, 2006-11
                                                                  • Figure 16: Most popular overseas travel destinations for UK residents, 2006-11
                                                                • Taxing matters
                                                                  • Figure 17: Air Passenger Duty, as of April 2012
                                                                • Hedging bets
                                                                  • Figure 18: Kerosene-type jet fuel monthly average spot price and USD:GBP monthly average spot exchange rate, Jan 2006-Mar 2012
                                                                • Dream on
                                                                  • Carbon trading
                                                                    • Ancillary affairs
                                                                      • Super complaint
                                                                      • Broader Market Environment

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Household consumption falls
                                                                            • Figure 19: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2004-Q1 2012
                                                                            • Figure 20: UK Consumer Confidence Index, July 2011-June 2012
                                                                          • Age polarisation
                                                                            • Figure 21: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-17
                                                                          • C2 growth may help charter
                                                                            • Figure 22: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2007-17
                                                                          • Pound stages partial recovery
                                                                            • Figure 23: Annual average exchange rates for Sterling against other currencies, 2007 -12
                                                                        • Competitive Context

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Sea/tunnel share rises
                                                                              • Figure 24: All overseas visits by air, sea and tunnel – volume, 2006-11
                                                                              • Figure 25: Percentage share of all overseas visits, by travel mode, 2006-11
                                                                            • Tunnel boost
                                                                              • Megabus move
                                                                                • Domestic niche
                                                                                  • Figure 26: Main method of transport used for overnight trips in Great Britain, 2010-11
                                                                                  • Figure 27: Transport used on longest part of journey in UK, 2006-10
                                                                              • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • No kidding
                                                                                    • In the mood
                                                                                      • Olympian heights
                                                                                        • Live telly in the sky
                                                                                          • Nervous disposition discounts
                                                                                            • Carbon reduction
                                                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Return to growth
                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Passengers uplifted, 2007-17
                                                                                                • Forecast
                                                                                                  • Figure 29: Volume forecast of all passengers uplifted, 2007-17
                                                                                                  • Figure 30: Volume forecast of all passengers uplifted – international, 2007-17
                                                                                                  • Figure 31: Volume forecast of all passengers uplifted – domestic, 2007-17
                                                                                                • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                • Segment Performance

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Hols account for two thirds of air trips
                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Volume of UK residents’ air trips abroad, by purpose, 2006-11
                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Volume of UK resident’s air trips abroad, by purpose, % breakdown, 2006-11
                                                                                                    • Heavy charter decline
                                                                                                      • Figure 34: Passengers uplifted, scheduled vs. non-scheduled flights, 2006-11
                                                                                                    • Budget sector outperforms market
                                                                                                      • Figure 35: Total passengers uplifted by UK airlines, low cost and full-service, 2006-11
                                                                                                  • Market Share

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • easyJet is largest UK airline…
                                                                                                        • Figure 36: Top 10 UK-based airlines, by passengers uplifted globally, 2006-11
                                                                                                      • … but Ryanair carries most UK passengers
                                                                                                        • Expansion plans
                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Number of active aircraft, by airline, 2010-11
                                                                                                      • Companies and Products

                                                                                                          • Ryanair
                                                                                                            • Figure 38: Key financials for Ryanair, 2011-12
                                                                                                          • easyJet
                                                                                                            • Figure 39: Key financials for easyJet PLC, 2010-11
                                                                                                          • British Airways
                                                                                                              • Figure 40: Key financials for IAG – British Airways (British Airways), 2010-11
                                                                                                            • Thomson Airways
                                                                                                              • Figure 41: Key financials for TUI PLC (Thomson Airways), 2010-11
                                                                                                            • Thomas Cook Airlines
                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Key financials for Thomas Cook Group Plc – UK & Ireland, India and Middle East segment, 2010-11
                                                                                                            • Flybe
                                                                                                              • Figure 43: Key financials for Flybe, 2010-11
                                                                                                            • Monarch Airlines
                                                                                                              • Figure 44: Key financials for Monarch Airlines, 2009-10
                                                                                                            • British Midland International
                                                                                                                • Figure 45: Key financials for Lufthansa – British Midland (British Midland International), 2010-11
                                                                                                              • Virgin Atlantic Airways
                                                                                                                • Figure 46: Key financials for Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd, 2010-11
                                                                                                              • Jet2.com
                                                                                                                • Figure 47: Key financials for Dart Group PLC (Jet Group), 2010-11
                                                                                                            • Brand Research

                                                                                                              • Brand map
                                                                                                                  • Figure 48: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the airline sector, May 2012
                                                                                                                • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                  • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Attitudes, by airline brand, May 2012
                                                                                                                  • Brand personality
                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Airline brand personality – macro image, May 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Airline brand personality – micro image, May 2012
                                                                                                                  • Brand experience
                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Airline brand usage, May 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Satisfaction with various airline brands, May 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Consideration of airline brands, May 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 55: Consumer perceptions of current airline brand performance, May 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Airline brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, May 2012
                                                                                                                  • Brand index
                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Airline brand index, May 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Airline brand index vs. recommendation, May 2012
                                                                                                                  • Brand target group analysis
                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Brand target groups, May 2012
                                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Airline brand usage, by target groups, May 2012
                                                                                                                  • Group One – Conformists
                                                                                                                    • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                                      • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                                        • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                                          • Group Five – Individualists
                                                                                                                          • Experience of Flying

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
                                                                                                                            • Income is main factor
                                                                                                                            • Type of Flight Taken

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • Four in ten fliers flew budget on last trip
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
                                                                                                                              • Optional Extras

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Seat selection rises in popularity
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Most important extras when flying, April 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 64: Most important extras when flying for under four hours, December 2009-April 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 65: Most important extras when flying for over four hours, December 2009-April 2012
                                                                                                                                  • Over-55s crave more space
                                                                                                                                  • Reasons for Selecting Airline

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • Three quarters of fliers select on price
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 66: Most important factors in choosing an airline, April 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Reputation important for long-haul
                                                                                                                                      • Changes in Air Travel Behaviour

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • A quarter of fliers have cut back
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 67: Changes in air travel behaviour, April 2012
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 68: Changes in air travel behaviour, by flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Empty nesters have cut back the least
                                                                                                                                          • Anticipated Impact of Fare Increases on Flying

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Rises may be last straw for disgruntled fliers
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 69: Expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 70: Expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
                                                                                                                                            • Attitudes Towards Flying

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Price is key but experience still matters
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Attitudes towards air travel, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Age splits
                                                                                                                                                  • Green gap
                                                                                                                                                    • Lapsed fliers go slow
                                                                                                                                                    • Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • Target groups
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 72: Airlines target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                        • Budget Babes
                                                                                                                                                          • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                            • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                              • Thrills And Frills
                                                                                                                                                                • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                                  • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                    • Fear Of Flying
                                                                                                                                                                      • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                                        • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                          • Necessary Evil
                                                                                                                                                                            • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                                              • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                                • The Unconcerned
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Demographic profile
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Marketing message
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 73: All passengers uplifted, market volume and forecast, best and worst case scenarios, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 74: All passengers uplifted – international, market volume and forecast, best and worst case scenarios, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 75: All passengers uplifted – domestic, market volume and forecast, best and worst case scenarios, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 76: Brand usage, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 77: Brand commitment, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 78: Brand momentum, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 79: Brand diversity, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 80: Brand satisfaction, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 81: Brand recommendation, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 82: Brand attitude, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 83: Brand image – macro image, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 84: Brand image – micro image, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 85: Profile of brand target groups, by demographics, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 86: Psychographic segmentation by target group, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 87: Brand usage, by target group, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand index
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 88: Brand index, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Experience of Flying

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 89: Flights taken in the past three years, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Type of Flight Taken

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 90: Type of flight taken for last trip, by flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 91: type of flight taken for last trip, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 92: type of flight taken for last trip, by demographics, April 2012 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Optional Extras

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 93: Most important extras when flying, by flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 94: Most important extras when flying, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 95: Most important extras when flying, by type of flight taken for last trip (cont.), April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 96: Most popular extras when flying less than four hours, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 97: Next most popular extras when flying less than four hours, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 98: Other extras when flying less than four hours, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 99: Most popular extras when flying more than four hours, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 100: Next most popular extras when flying more than four hours, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 101: Other extras when flying more than four hours, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Reasons for Selecting Airline

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 102: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 103: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 104: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by type of flight taken for last trip (cont.), April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 105: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by most popular extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 106: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by next most popular extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 107: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by other extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 108: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by most popular extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 109: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by next most popular extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 110: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by other extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 111: Most popular factors in choosing an airline, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 112: Next most popular factors in choosing an airline, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Changes in Air Travel Behaviour

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 113: Changes in air travel behaviour, by flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 114: Changes in air travel behaviour, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 115: Changes in air travel behaviour, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 116: Changes in air travel behaviour, by most popular extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 117: Changes in air travel behaviour, by next most popular extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 118: Changes in air travel behaviour, by other extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 119: Changes in air travel behaviour, by most popular extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 120: Changes in air travel behaviour, by next most popular extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 121: Changes in air travel behaviour, by other extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 122: Most popular changes in air travel behaviour, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 123: Next most popular changes in air travel behaviour, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Anticipated Impact of Fare Increases on Flying

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 124: Expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, by type of flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 125: Expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 126: Expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 127: Expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Attitudes Towards Flying

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 128: Attitudes towards air travel, by flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 129: Attitudes towards air travel, by flights taken in the past three years, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 130: Attitudes towards air travel, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 131: Attitudes towards air travel, by type of flight taken for last trip, April 2012 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 132: Attitudes towards air travel, by most popular extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 133: Attitudes towards air travel, by next most popular extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 134: Attitudes towards air travel, by other extras when flying less than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 135: Attitudes towards air travel, by most popular extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 136: Attitudes towards air travel, by next most popular extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 137: Attitudes towards air travel, by other extras when flying more than four hours, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 138: Attitudes towards air travel, by most popular factors in choosing an airline, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 139: Attitudes towards air travel, by next most popular factors in choosing an airline, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 140: Attitudes towards air travel, by changes in air travel behaviour, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 141: Attitudes towards air travel, by changes in air travel behaviour, April 2012 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 142: Attitudes towards air travel, by expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 143: Agreement with most popular statements, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 144: Agreement with next most popular statements, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 145: Agreement with next most popular statements, by demographics, April 2012 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 146: Flights taken in the past three years, by target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 147: Type of flight taken for last trip, by target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 148: Most important extras when flying, by target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 149: Most important factors in choosing an airline, by target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 150: Changes in air travel behaviour, by target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 151: Expected impact of cost increases on flying behaviour, by target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 152: Attitudes towards air travel, by target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 153: Target groups, by demographics, April 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Aer Lingus Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Amadeus Global Travel Distribution S.A.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • AMR Corporation (American Airlines)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Archers Direct
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Avro plc
                                                                                                                                                                                    • British Airways Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                    • British Midland Airways Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cathay Pacific Airways Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Competition Commission
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cosmos Group (Globus group of companies)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Dart Group PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Deutsche Lufthansa AG
                                                                                                                                                                                    • easyJet Airline Company Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Elemis Ltd.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Finnair Oyj
                                                                                                                                                                                    • FlyBE
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Iberia, Líneas Aéreas de España SA
                                                                                                                                                                                    • isango!
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Japan Airlines Corporation [JAL]
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Jersey European Airways (UK) Ltd.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Jet2.com
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Jet2Holidays Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Lan Airlines S.A.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • London Stock Exchange plc
                                                                                                                                                                                    • LOT Polish Airlines
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Monarch Airlines
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Qantas Airways Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Ryanair Holdings plc
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sabre Holdings Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Singapore Airlines Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Star Alliance
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Thomas Cook Airlines
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Thomas Cook Group PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Thomson Holidays
                                                                                                                                                                                    • TUI Travel PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Virgin Atlantic Airways Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Virgin Group Ltd.

                                                                                                                                                                                    Airlines - UK - July 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                    US $2,648.76 (Excl.Tax)