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Attitudes to Seasonal Celebrations Foods - UK - September 2015

“Indulgence tends to take centre stage within seasonal celebration foods, with these occasions providing an excuse for people to focus on taste rather than healthiness, even if they are typically diet-conscious. However, that one in four seasonal food shoppers would be interested in purchasing healthier versions of food for seasonal occasions indicates that this could be a lucrative area for operators to explore.”
– Emma Clifford, Senior Food Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Operators can create a USP through a healthier positioning
  • Premiumisation can help to stop people drop out of the Halloween food market as they age
  • A need for products that reduce the stress of cooking without losing the scratch-cook feel

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

      • Covered in this report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Figure 1: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by value, 2010-20
          • Growth in 25-34s and under-15s will support the market
            • Rising consumer spending to benefit the market
              • Companies, brands and innovation
                • One in 20 food launches are for seasonal occasions
                  • Supermarkets dominate adspend at Christmas
                    • The consumer
                      • Christmas drives more food purchasing than other occasions
                        • Figure 2: Types of food typically purchased for seasonal occasions, by occasion, July 2015
                      • Many people are buying more food for seasonal occasions
                        • Figure 3: Trends in the amount of food purchased for Halloween 2014, Christmas 2014 and Easter 2015, December 2014, January 2015 and April 2015
                      • Traditional and indulgent products are winners for seasonal occasions
                        • Figure 4: Factors looked for when buying food for seasonal occasions, July 2015
                      • Seasonal occasions prompt impulse buys and trading up
                        • Figure 5: Food habits on seasonal occasions, July 2015
                      • High levels of treating for seasonal occasions
                        • Figure 6: Reasons for buying food products for Halloween 2014, Christmas 2014 and Easter 2015, December 2014, January 2015 and April 2015
                      • Food is integral to seasonal celebrations
                        • Figure 7: Attitudes towards food for seasonal occasions, July 2015
                      • Regional seasonal celebration products attract most interest
                        • Figure 8: Interest in buying food/drink products for seasonal occasions, July 2015
                      • Preparing meals for seasonal occasions more likely to be stressful than fun
                        • Figure 9: Attitudes towards meals for seasonal occasions, July 2015
                      • What we think
                      • Issues and Insights

                        • Operators can create a USP through a healthier positioning
                          • The facts
                            • The implications
                              • Premiumisation can help to stop people drop out of the Halloween food market as they age
                                • The facts
                                  • The implications
                                    • A need for products that reduce the stress of cooking without losing the scratch-cook feel
                                      • The facts
                                        • The implications
                                        • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                          • Growth in 25-34s and under-15s to provide a boost
                                            • Rising consumer spending to benefit the market
                                              • Sales of seasonal-specific treats stand at £827 million
                                                • Deflation in the Easter egg market
                                                  • Volume sales of hot cross buns have plummeted
                                                  • Market Size and Segmentation

                                                    • Volume sales of selected seasonal celebration foods in decline
                                                      • Figure 10: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by value, 2010-20
                                                      • Figure 11: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by volume and value, 2010-20
                                                      • Figure 12: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by value, 2010-20
                                                      • Figure 13: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by volume, 2010-20
                                                      • Figure 14: Leading grocers’ retail sales* of selected seasonal celebration foods, by value and volume, 2010-15
                                                    • Volume sales of hot cross buns have plummeted
                                                      • Lower prices help to buoy sales of Easter confectionery
                                                        • Volume sales of confectionery have been stable
                                                          • The value of the seasonal biscuits market crumbles
                                                            • Seasonal cakes on the rise
                                                            • Market Drivers

                                                              • Grocers’ sales peak at key seasonal times
                                                                • Figure 15: Total monthly retail sales of predominantly food retailers, January 2013-July 2015
                                                              • Ageing population presents a challenge
                                                                • Figure 16: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2010-15 and 2015-20
                                                              • Growing multiculturalism in the UK
                                                                • The growth in consumer spending should benefit the market
                                                                  • Figure 17: Annual percentage change in CPI and AWE (regular pay), monthly basis, January 2012-June 2015
                                                              • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                                                • Seasonal peaks in adspend
                                                                  • Supermarkets dominate adspend at Christmas
                                                                    • 5% of food launches are specifically for seasonal occasions
                                                                      • Less obvious brands tap into seasonal occasions
                                                                      • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                          • Figure 18: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on food, by month, January 2011-July 2015
                                                                        • Supermarkets dominate adspend at Christmas
                                                                          • Figure 19: Share of total adspend on food from the UK’s leading supermarkets*, January 2011-December 2014
                                                                        • Seasonal occasions are important for brands too
                                                                        • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                          • Methodology
                                                                            • One in 20 food launches are for seasonal occasions
                                                                              • Figure 20: Launches of food specifically for annual seasonal occasions* as a share of all food NPD, 2009/10-2014/15
                                                                            • Chocolate and baked goods lead seasonal NPD
                                                                              • Figure 21: Share of food launches specifically for annual seasonal occasions, by category, 2009/10-2014/15
                                                                            • Less obvious brands tap into seasonal occasions
                                                                              • Launches for lesser seasonal occasions remain rare
                                                                                • Free-from launches reach a five-year high
                                                                                  • Better-for-you products remain rare
                                                                                    • Standout packaging taps into more impulsive shopping habits
                                                                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                      • Seasonal occasions drive high levels of food purchasing
                                                                                        • Under-35s and families are the core buyers
                                                                                          • Traditional and indulgent products are most attractive
                                                                                            • Seasonal food shopping is less restrained than everyday
                                                                                              • Notable interest in different types of seasonal food products
                                                                                                • Taste tests are an attractive proposition
                                                                                                  • Food waste can be a problem
                                                                                                    • Preparing meals for seasonal occasion can be stressful
                                                                                                    • Purchasing of Food for Seasonal Occasions

                                                                                                      • Food plays an integral role in seasonal celebrations
                                                                                                        • Figure 22: Types of food typically purchased for seasonal occasions, by occasion, July 2015
                                                                                                      • Christmas drives more food purchasing than other occasions
                                                                                                        • Young people are the key audience for Halloween and Valentine’s Day
                                                                                                          • Figure 23: Consumers who buy food for Easter, Halloween and Valentine’s Day, by age, July 2015
                                                                                                        • Many people are buying more food for seasonal occasions
                                                                                                          • Figure 24: Trends in the amount of food purchased for Halloween 2014, Christmas 2014 and Easter 2015, December 2014, January 2015 and April 2015
                                                                                                        • Many shoppers are drawn to foods they wouldn’t normally buy
                                                                                                          • Figure 25: Food purchases made for seasonal occasions compared to typical food purchasing, by seasonal occasion, December 2014, January 2015 and April 2015
                                                                                                      • Choice Factors for Buying Food for Seasonal Occasions

                                                                                                        • Traditional products are the winners for seasonal occasions…
                                                                                                          • Figure 26: Factors looked for when buying food for seasonal occasions, July 2015
                                                                                                        • …but something unusual also appeals
                                                                                                          • Indulgence is key
                                                                                                            • Under-35s look for the fun factor
                                                                                                            • Food Habits on Seasonal Occasions

                                                                                                              • Seasonal occasions prompt impulse buys
                                                                                                                • Figure 27: Food habits on seasonal occasions, July 2015
                                                                                                              • Seasonal occasions can prompt trading up
                                                                                                                • Opportunities for more adult-oriented seasonal-themed products
                                                                                                                  • High levels of treating for seasonal occasions
                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Reasons for buying food products for Halloween 2014, Christmas 2014 and Easter 2015, December 2014, January 2015 and April 2015
                                                                                                                • Attitudes towards Food for Seasonal Occasions

                                                                                                                  • Food is integral to seasonal celebrations
                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Attitudes towards food for seasonal occasions, July 2015
                                                                                                                  • Taste tests are an attractive proposition for risk-averse shoppers
                                                                                                                    • A shorter lead time to seasonal occasions could be beneficial
                                                                                                                      • Food waste can be an issue around seasonal occasions
                                                                                                                      • Interest in Food Products for Seasonal Occasions

                                                                                                                        • Regional products attract interest…
                                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Interest in buying food/drink products for seasonal occasions, July 2015
                                                                                                                        • …as do world seasonal celebration foods
                                                                                                                          • Scope to expand celebration foods into other categories
                                                                                                                            • More companies could provide a helping hand in baking
                                                                                                                              • Room to develop better-for-you options
                                                                                                                              • Attitudes towards Meals for Seasonal Occasions

                                                                                                                                • Preparing meals for seasonal occasions more likely to be stressful than fun
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 31: Attitudes towards meals for seasonal occasions, July 2015
                                                                                                                                • Young women are most interested in eating healthily on seasonal occasions
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                  • Data sources
                                                                                                                                    • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                        • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                          • Total market
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 32: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of selected seasonal foods**, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 33: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of selected seasonal foods**, by volume, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                          • Seasonal Celebration Confectionery
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 34: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration confectionery, by volume and value, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 35: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration confectionery, by value, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration confectionery, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 37: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration confectionery, by volume, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 38: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration confectionery, by volume, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                          • Seasonal Celebration Cakes
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 39: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration cakes, by volume and value, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration cakes, by value, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration cakes, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration cakes, by volume, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration cakes, by volume, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                          • Seasonal Celebration Biscuits
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration biscuits, by volume and value, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 45: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration biscuits, by value, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration biscuits, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration biscuits*, by volume, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration biscuits, by volume, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                          • Hot Cross Buns
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 49: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of hot cross buns, by volume and value, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 50: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of hot cross buns, by value, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of hot cross buns, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 52: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of hot cross buns, by volume, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts* for hot cross buns, by volume, 2015-20

                                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

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                                                                                                                                        Attitudes to Seasonal Celebrations Foods - UK - September 2015

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