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Baby Food and Drink - UK - April 2017

“Seeds of change – which could revolutionise the baby food and drink retail landscape – have been planted by the discounters. 2016 saw Aldi extend its offering dramatically and Lidl make its first venture into this category. If this evolving presence is well-received by parents this could curb future price inflation and put brands under real pressure from private label for the first time.”

–    Emma Clifford, Senior Food and Drink Analyst

This report will cover the following areas:

Targeting the on-the-go market can build on growth in baby snacks
The health halo of plant proteins is igniting demand for these ingredients in baby food
Could the discounters change the retail landscape in baby food and drink as they have done in babycare?

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • After years of strong growth, value sales slip in 2016
              • Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of baby food, drink and milk, 2011-21
            • Companies and brands
              • Ella’s Kitchen pulls away from the pack
                • Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares of sales in the UK wet and dry baby food market, by value, 2016*
              • Strong performances in snacks from Organix, Kiddylicious and Bear
                • Aptamil steals share from Cow & Gate in baby milk despite sales losses
                  • Driven by baby milk, 2016 sees a rise in launch activity
                    • Premiumisation, exciting flavours and positive nutrition emerge as key trends
                      • Adspend slumps to five-year low
                        • The consumer
                          • Homemade is preferred, but most parents use manufactured baby meals
                            • Figure 3: Frequency of usage of baby food and drink, by type, February 2017
                          • Supermarkets are the favoured channel
                            • Figure 4: Retailers from which baby/toddler food and drink is purchased, February 2017
                          • Contributing to babies’ five-a-day holds strong appeal
                            • Figure 5: Factors which would make parents pick one baby/toddler food and drink product over another, February 2017
                          • On-the-go snacking presents opportunities
                            • Figure 6: Interest in products and in-store solutions, February 2017
                          • Vegetable-based weaning is seen in a very positive light
                            • A third of parents prefer vegetarian baby/toddler meals
                              • Figure 7: Attitudes towards baby food and drink, February 2017
                            • What we think
                            • Issues and Insights

                              • Targeting the on-the-go market can build on growth in baby snacks
                                • The facts
                                  • The implications
                                    • The health halo of plant proteins is igniting demand for these ingredients in baby food
                                      • The facts
                                        • The implications
                                          • Could the discounters change the retail landscape in baby food and drink as they have done in babycare?
                                            • The facts
                                              • The implications
                                              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                • After years of strong growth, value sales slip in 2016
                                                  • Volume sales expected to benefit from rising birth rates
                                                    • Baby milk responsible for decline in 2016
                                                      • Value growth in baby food and snacks
                                                        • Birth rate edges up in 2015
                                                          • Sugar remains in the spotlight
                                                          • Market Size and Forecast

                                                            • After years of strong growth, value sales slip in 2016
                                                              • Figure 8: Total UK retail volume and value sales of baby food, drink and milk, 2011-21
                                                            • The future
                                                              • Figure 9: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of baby food, drink and milk, 2011-21
                                                              • Figure 10: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of baby food, drink and milk, 2011-21
                                                            • Forecast methodology
                                                            • Market Segmentation

                                                              • Baby milk falls into decline in 2016
                                                                • Value sales of baby food up 3% year on year
                                                                  • Figure 11: UK retail value and volume sales of baby food, drink and milk, by segment, 2013-16
                                                                • Booming sales of baby snacks
                                                                  • No end to the decline in baby drinks
                                                                  • Market Drivers

                                                                    • Birth rate edges up in 2015
                                                                      • Figure 12: Live births in England and Wales, 2010-15
                                                                      • Figure 13: Live births in England and Wales, by area of residence of mother, 2015
                                                                    • Decline predicted in number of 0-4s over 2016-21 poses a challenge
                                                                      • Figure 14: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-21
                                                                    • Breastfeeding rates appear to be falling
                                                                      • Figure 15: Percentage of mothers initiating breastfeeding, 2008/09-2015/16
                                                                    • Rise in working mothers bodes well for the market
                                                                      • Health remains a focus for parents
                                                                        • Sugar remains in the spotlight
                                                                          • Positive nutrition appeals to parents
                                                                            • Household budgets to come under pressure
                                                                              • NPD looks to appeal to savvy shoppers
                                                                              • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                • Ella’s Kitchen pulls away from the pack …
                                                                                  • Own-label gains share, but still plays a minority role
                                                                                    • Strong performances in snacks from Organix, Kiddylicious and Bear
                                                                                      • Aptamil steals share from Cow & Gate despite sales losses
                                                                                        • Driven by baby milk, 2016 sees a rise in launch activity
                                                                                          • Premiumisation and positive nutrition emerge as key trends
                                                                                            • Adspend slumps to five-year low
                                                                                            • Market Share

                                                                                              • Ella’s Kitchen pulls away from the pack
                                                                                                • Trading up also benefited Little Dish
                                                                                                  • Smaller brands made progress in 2016
                                                                                                    • Mid-priced ranges are squeezed …
                                                                                                      • … while own-label gains share, but still plays a minority role
                                                                                                        • Figure 16: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK wet and dry baby food market, by value and volume, 2014-16
                                                                                                        • Figure 17: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK wet and dry baby food market, by value and volume, 2014-16
                                                                                                      • Strong performances from Organix, Kiddylicious and Bear
                                                                                                        • Farley’s rusks fall out of favour
                                                                                                          • Figure 18: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK baby snacks market, by value and volume, 2014-16
                                                                                                          • Figure 19: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK baby snacks market, by value and volume, 2014-16
                                                                                                        • Aptamil steals share from Cow & Gate despite sales losses
                                                                                                          • Figure 20: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK baby milk market, by value and volume, 2014-16
                                                                                                          • Figure 21: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK baby milk market, by value and volume, 2014-16
                                                                                                        • Sales of Heinz baby drinks continue to tumble
                                                                                                          • Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK baby milk market, by value and volume, 2014-16
                                                                                                      • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                        • Driven by baby milk, 2016 sees a rise in launch activity
                                                                                                          • Launch activity in baby meals stabilises
                                                                                                            • Premiumisation, exciting flavours and positive nutrition emerge as key trends
                                                                                                              • Figure 23: Share of new product launches within the UK baby food, drink and milk market, by sub-category, 2012-16
                                                                                                            • Little Dish storms up the NPD ranks
                                                                                                              • Piccolo looks to NPD to build on its early success
                                                                                                                • Annabel Karmel ventures into the frozen aisle
                                                                                                                  • Aldi branches out into baby food, drink and milk
                                                                                                                    • Figure 24: Share of new product launches within the UK baby food, drink and milk market, by brands vs own-label, 2013-16
                                                                                                                    • Figure 25: Share of new product launches within the UK baby food, drink and milk market, by company, 2012-16
                                                                                                                  • Superfood ingredients are a focus of NPD in snacks
                                                                                                                    • Kiddylicious and Little Dish look to plant proteins
                                                                                                                      • Heinz makes its first foray into biscuits
                                                                                                                        • Jump in L/N/R innovation in 2016
                                                                                                                          • Figure 26: Share of new product launches within the UK baby food market, by selected nutritional claims, 2012-17*
                                                                                                                        • A big rise in the five-a-day claim in 2016
                                                                                                                          • Figure 27: Share of new product launches within the UK baby food market which contribute to at least one portion of babies’ recommended five-a-day, by sub-category, 2012-16
                                                                                                                        • Launches of baby formula/milk products rocket in 2016
                                                                                                                          • Kendamil brings newness to the baby milk category
                                                                                                                            • Hipp Organic launches first specialist milk
                                                                                                                            • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                              • Adspend slumps to five-year low
                                                                                                                                • Figure 28: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on baby food and drink, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on baby food and drink, by category, 2012-16
                                                                                                                              • Danone grows its share of adspend
                                                                                                                                • Cow & Gate supports visibility of its Baby Club
                                                                                                                                  • Aptamil pushes follow-on milk and Profutura range
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on baby food and drink, by advertiser, (sorted by total in 2016), 2012-16
                                                                                                                                  • Ella’s Kitchen promotes weaning with veg
                                                                                                                                    • Petits Filous uses social media to crowdsource new flavour ideas
                                                                                                                                      • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                        • Homemade is preferred, but most parents use manufactured baby meals
                                                                                                                                          • Supermarkets are the favoured channel
                                                                                                                                            • Contributing to babies’ five-a-day holds strong appeal
                                                                                                                                              • On-the-go snacking presents opportunities
                                                                                                                                                • Vegetable-based weaning is seen in a very positive light
                                                                                                                                                  • A third of parents prefer vegetarian baby/toddler meals
                                                                                                                                                  • Usage of Baby Food and Drink

                                                                                                                                                    • Homemade baby food is a daily staple for the majority …
                                                                                                                                                      • … yet still over half of parents use manufactured baby food
                                                                                                                                                        • Young and wealthy parents are key users of bought baby food
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Usage of baby food and drink, by type, December 2015 and February 2017
                                                                                                                                                        • Growing user base for baby snacks
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Frequency of usage of baby food and drink, by type, February 2017
                                                                                                                                                        • Usage of baby milk geared towards men and young parents
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 33: Repertoire of different types of baby food and drink used, February 2017
                                                                                                                                                      • Where Baby Food and Drink is Purchased

                                                                                                                                                        • Supermarkets remain the favoured channel …
                                                                                                                                                          • … but baby food and drink ranges may be squeezed
                                                                                                                                                            • A third of parents buy baby food/drink from discounters
                                                                                                                                                              • Aldi and Lidl develop their private label offering
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Retailers from which baby/toddler food and drink is purchased, February 2017
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Retailers from which baby/toddler food and drink is purchased, by product type, February 2017
                                                                                                                                                              • Purchasing at convenience stores peaks at 43% of Londoners
                                                                                                                                                                • The convenience channel offers growth potential
                                                                                                                                                                • Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                                                  • Contributing to babies’ five-a-day holds strong appeal
                                                                                                                                                                    • Strong interest from parents…
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Factors which would make parents pick one baby/toddler food and drink product over another, February 2017
                                                                                                                                                                    • …and from brands
                                                                                                                                                                      • Untapped opportunities in snacks
                                                                                                                                                                        • Cold-pressed can give differentiation
                                                                                                                                                                          • Providing help in achieving the five-a-day
                                                                                                                                                                            • Non-digital solutions can appeal
                                                                                                                                                                              • Superfoods hold most sway among young parents and ABs
                                                                                                                                                                                • Overall interest in superfoods fuels interest in baby food
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Superfoods must cut through the hype
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Scope to put the focus on good fats
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Being approved by nutritionists provides a mark that elicits trust
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Interest in Products and In-store Solutions

                                                                                                                                                                                        • On-the-go snacking presents opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Grab-and-go sections
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Single-portion packs
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 37: Interest in products and in-store solutions, February 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Snacks for older children appeal to a third of parents
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Image of toddler snacks as healthy fuels interest
                                                                                                                                                                                                • ‘Green’ products are a good fit for baby food/drink
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Debate over pouches
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Offsetting environmental impact
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Attitudes towards Baby Food and Drink

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Vegetable-based weaning is seen in a very positive light …
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Lifestyle positioning can build trust
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Attitudes towards baby food and drink, February 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • … as are savoury snacks
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • A third of parents prefer vegetarian baby/toddler meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Plant protein can leverage green, safe and health credentials in baby food
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • A third of savoury baby meals feature vegetarian claim
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The perceived benefits of spices are two-fold
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • ‘Foodie’ trend drives interest in adventurous baby food
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Herbs and spices have a place in sweet as well as savoury dishes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brands can build loyalty by supporting flavour exploration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumers are switched onto the health-boosting potential of spices
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Forecast Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of baby food, drink and milk, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of baby food, drink and milk, 2016-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Baby Food and Drink - UK - April 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                US $2,570.96 (Excl.Tax)