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Bacon and Lunch Meat - US - October 2016

"Over the past five years, bacon and lunch meat managed growth, and it should match that performance through 2021. However, when accounting for inflation, sales are largely stagnant, as health concerns appear to be prompting consumers to avoid much of the category. An influx of lower-sodium and more-flavorful options across the category should help the category boost sales."
- Billy Roberts, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

  • Stagnating sales expected to increase
  • Slower DPI growth could to lead to less dining out
  • Consumers seek lower-sodium options

For the purposes of this report, the bacon and lunch meat market has been segmented as follows:

  • refrigerated, packaged sliced lunch meat including, but not limited to: ham, turkey, salami, pastrami, bologna, chicken, corned beef. Used primarily for everyday consumption.
  • refrigerated non-sliced lunch meat including, but not limited to: specialty salami, ham, wursts, and turkey. Generally, more premium specialty products, potentially more consumed for special occasions such as holidays. Generally, more limited selection than sliced meat.
  • refrigerated bacon and bacon bits.
  • deli counter lunch meat sold in a supermarket’s deli department.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Stagnating sales expected to increase
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of bacon and lunch meat, at current prices, 2011-21
          • Slower DPI growth could to lead to less dining out
            • Figure 2: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, August 2014-July 2016
          • Consumers seek lower-sodium options
            • Figure 3: Interest in low-sodium options, by generation, July 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Quality proves key
              • Figure 4: Important attributes, July 2016
            • Diverse flavors appeal
              • Figure 5: Increasing purchase, July 2016
            • Price impacting Hispanic lunch meat choice
              • Figure 6: Opinions of lunch meat, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Category sales to jump in latter half of decade
                • Deli-counter lunch meat leveraging fresh appeal
                  • Less dining out could impact category
                    • Brown-bagging lunch may boost meats
                    • Market Size and Forecast

                      • Historic and projected sales performance
                        • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of bacon and lunch meat, at current prices, 2011-21
                        • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2011-21
                    • Market Breakdown

                      • Deli-counter lunch meat to pace the category
                        • Figure 9: Sales of bacon and lunch meat, by segment, 2011-21
                        • Figure 10: Sales of bacon and lunch meat, by segment, 2011-21
                      • Slow sales for bacon should be short-lived
                        • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated bacon, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Refrigerated non-sliced lunch meat sales to slow
                        • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated non-sliced lunch meat, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Refrigerated sliced lunch meat largely stagnant
                        • Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated sliced lunch meat, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Shelf-stable lunch meat to grow but slowly
                        • Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable lunch meats, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Deli-counter lunch meat leveraging fresh appeal
                        • Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of deli-counter lunch meat, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Sales growth consistent among retail channels
                        • Figure 16: Total US retail sales of bacon and lunch meat, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
                        • Figure 17: Total US retail sales of bacon and lunch meat, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
                    • Market Perspective

                      • Lower prices across the grocery aisles
                        • Lower DPI likely to lead to less dining out
                          • Figure 18: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, August 2014-July 2016
                        • Snacking culture eats into lunch meat usage
                        • Market Factors

                          • Taking lunch should boost category
                            • Figure 19: Typical lunch, July 2016
                          • Youth movement could lead to more demand
                            • Figure 20: US population by generation, 2010-20
                            • Figure 21: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                          • Looking for healthier lunch meat options
                            • Figure 22: Interest in low-sodium options, by generation, July 2016
                          • Hispanics more likely to use lunch meat and bacon
                            • Figure 23: US population by race and Hispanic origin, 2009, 2014, and 2019
                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                          • Sales drops for leading brands
                            • Bacon on track to eclipse $5 billion mark by 2020
                              • Slowing lunch meat sales
                                • Breaking free
                                • Brand Sales of Bacon and Lunch Meat

                                  • Kraft dominates market share, though leading brands see sales drops
                                    • Brand sales of bacon and lunch meat
                                      • Figure 24: MULO sales of bacon and lunch meat, by leading companies, 52-weeks ending May 16, 2015
                                      • Figure 25: Manufacturer sales of bacon and lunch meat, 2015-16
                                    • Private-label options not resonating
                                      • Figure 26: US introductions of processed meats, branded versus private label, 2011-16
                                  • What’s Working?

                                    • Better days for bacon
                                      • Figure 27: Tyson Refrigerated Processed Meats' Bacon
                                      • Figure 28: Smithfield Foods' Bacon
                                      • Figure 29: Bacon as a component of new products
                                  • What’s Struggling?

                                    • Lunch meat sales stagnate
                                      • Figure 30: Kraft Foods's Oscar Mayer
                                      • Figure 31: New processed meat introductions, branded versus private label, 2011-16
                                  • What’s Next?

                                    • Free market
                                      • Figure 32: Lunch meat options bearing free-from claims
                                      • Figure 33: Processed meat launches by claim category, 2011-15
                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                    • Expanding lunch meat usage
                                      • Fresh bacon lags packaged options
                                        • Parents notably more interested in gluten-free lunch meat/bacon
                                          • Flavor trumps healthy attributes
                                            • Millennials seek more options to use lunch meat
                                              • Hispanics less likely to skip lunch
                                              • Usage of Lunch Meat

                                                • Lunch meat typically on a sandwich
                                                  • Figure 34: Usage of lunch meat, July 2016
                                                • Consumption of lunch meat declines with age
                                                  • Figure 35: Usage of lunch meat, by generations, July 2016
                                                • Expanding lunch meats’ usage options
                                                  • Figure 36: Usage of lunch meat, by household income, July 2016
                                                • Larger households turn to convenience of lunch meat
                                                  • Figure 37: Usage of lunch meat, by presence of children in household, July 2016
                                                • Hispanics using lunch meat in sandwiches, salads
                                                  • Figure 38: Usage of lunch meat, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
                                              • Usage of Bacon

                                                • Fresh bacon usage lags other category segments
                                                  • Figure 39: Usage of bacon, July 2016
                                                • Younger generations notably more likely to use bacon
                                                  • Figure 40: Usage of bacon, by generation, July 2016
                                                • Fresh options resonate strongly with Hispanics
                                                  • Figure 41: Usage of bacon, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
                                              • Important Attributes

                                                • Quality impacts purchase nearly as much as health
                                                  • Figure 42: Important attributes, July 2016
                                                • Strongest interest in gluten-free among parents
                                                  • Figure 43: Important attributes, July 2016
                                                • Low-sodium lunch meats have room to grow sales
                                                  • Figure 44: Important attributes of prepackaged/deli lunch meat, by race, July 2016
                                                • Low-sodium, low-fat bacon options resonate
                                                  • Figure 45: Important attributes of bacon (prepackaged or freshly sliced), by generation, July 2016
                                              • Purchase Interest

                                                • Diverse flavors may lure adventurous consumers
                                                  • Figure 46: Increasing purchase, July 2016
                                                • Allergen-free options resonate with Millennials
                                                  • Figure 47: Increasing purchase, by generations, July 2016
                                                • Uniquely flavored bacons have widespread appeal
                                                  • Figure 48: Increasing purchase, by household income, July 2016
                                              • Opinions of Lunch Meat

                                                • Fresh perception of key importance to lunch meat shoppers
                                                    • Figure 49: Opinions of lunch meat, July 2016
                                                  • Millennials seeking more possibilities with lunch meat
                                                    • Figure 50: Opinions of lunch meat, by generation, July 2016
                                                  • Price could be guiding Hispanic lunch meat choice
                                                    • Figure 51: Opinions of lunch meat, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
                                                • Opinions of Bacon

                                                  • Consumer concern about preparing bacon
                                                    • Figure 52: Opinions of bacon, July 2016
                                                  • Packaging could guide consumer usage as snacks
                                                    • Figure 53: Opinions of bacon, by generation, July 2016
                                                  • Value a key motivator
                                                    • Figure 54: Opinions of bacon, by household income, July 2016
                                                  • Origin of particular importance to parents
                                                    • Figure 55: Opinions of bacon, by parental status by gender with children in household, July 2016
                                                  • Hispanics may accept diverse applications for bacon
                                                    • Figure 56: Opinions of bacon, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
                                                • Typical Lunch

                                                  • Leftovers lead typical lunch, sandwiches a close second
                                                    • Figure 57: Typical lunch, July 2016
                                                  • Millennials more likely to dine out for lunch
                                                    • Figure 58: Typical lunch, by generation, July 2016
                                                  • Lower-income consumers more likely to skip lunch
                                                    • Figure 59: Typical lunch, by household income, July 2016
                                                  • Potential for salad-ready cuts
                                                    • Figure 60: Typical lunch, by parental status, by gender, July 2016
                                                  • Hispanics less likely to skip lunch
                                                    • Figure 61: Typical lunch, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
                                                • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                  • Data sources
                                                    • Sales data
                                                      • Fan chart forecast
                                                        • Consumer survey data
                                                          • Abbreviations and terms
                                                            • Abbreviations
                                                            • Appendix – Market

                                                                • Figure 62: Total US sales and forecast of bacon and lunch meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of bacon and lunch meat, by segment at current prices, 2014 and 2016
                                                                • Figure 64: Total US retail sales of bacon and lunch meat, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
                                                                • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated bacon, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated non-sliced lunch meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated sliced lunch meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable lunch meats, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of deli-counter lunch meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                • Figure 70: US supermarket sales of bacon and lunch meat, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                                • Figure 71: US sales of bacon and lunch meat through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
                                                            • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                • Figure 72: MULO sales of refrigerated bacon, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                • Figure 73: MULO sales of refrigerated non-sliced lunch meat, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                • Figure 74: MULO sales of refrigerated sliced lunch meat, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                                • Figure 75: MULO sales of shelf stable lunch meats, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
                                                            • Correspondence Analysis – Bacon and Lunch Meat – October 2016

                                                              • Methodology
                                                                • Figure 76: Usage of lunch meat, hot dogs, sausage, and bacon and lunch meat, July 2016

                                                            Bacon and Lunch Meat - US - October 2016

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