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Baking and Dessert Mixes - US - August 2014

“The US baking and dessert mixes category experienced flat sales in 2013 and 2014 at $2.7 billion. Sales are forecast to remain flat in 2015 and decline to $2.5 billion by 2019. Concerns about the health impact of eating too many baked goods are negatively impacting sales. Additionally, recovering consumer confidence means more people will spend on dining out rather than cooking and baking at home. When marketing to families brands must focus on providing more products using premium, natural, and BFY (better-for-you) ingredients. Emphasizing premium ingredients will also appeal to the 44% of respondents who say they buy mixes because they taste good.”
- Amy Kraushaar, US Category Manager, Food & Drink

This report answers the following questions:

  • What consumer groups are most likely to use baking/dessert mixes?
  • Can mix brands overcome perceptions of unhealthiness?
  • How can mix brands compete with RTE, packaged brands?

 

The US baking and dessert mixes category experienced flat sales in 2013 and 2014, when it reached $2.7 billion. Flat sales are forecasted for 2015, and by 2019 sales are projected to decline to $2.5 billion.
 
Poor sales performance is driven mostly by health concerns; more than a quarter of consumers say they are using less mixes or none at all compared to a year ago because they are unhealthy. Further, recovering consumer confidence is spurring some consumers to spend more on dining out and on packaged baked goods, which negatively impacts sales of baking/dessert mixes.
 
Additionally, an overall lack of innovation leaves consumers with few reasons to increase interest in the category. However, data from Mintel’s custom online survey seems to contradict sluggish sales, reporting a higher likelihood for households with children to use some types of baking/dessert mixes and a wide variety of them.
 
This indicates that brands must focus on families and the product attributes they perceive as important to slow down forecasted sales declines. This includes occasion-specific products, natural and premium ingredients, reduced fat/sugar/calories, and a number of different recipes provided on packaging.
 
This report features analysis of these factors, as well as examination of the following:
  • The competitive threat represented by packaged baked good/dessert brands and baking from scratch 
  • Why pancake and other mixes manage growth as all other segments decline 
  • Company and brand analysis and why the three leading companies are all declining 
  • Analysis of consumer behaviors and attitudes toward baking/dessert mixes, including usage compared to a year ago, reasons for using/buying, important purchase factors, and reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes. 
For the purposes of this report, baking and dessert mixes are covered as per the following definitions:
  • Cake/pie mixes 
  • Pudding/gelatin mixes 
  • Brownie mixes 
  • Bread/muffin mixes 
  • Pancake mixes 
  • Prepared pie crusts 
  • Other mixes

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                • Executive Summary

                  • Overview
                    • Flat category in 2014
                      • Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
                    • Cake/pie mixes lead segments; most segments decline
                      • Figure 2: MULO sales of baking and dessert mixes at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks, 2014
                    • Key players
                      • The consumer
                        • Respondents most apt to use pancake, cake, and brownie mix once a month or more
                          • Figure 3: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – once a month or more, June 2014
                        • Respondents very likely to be baking from scratch, using RTE items the same amount or more than last year
                          • Figure 4: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – any same amount or more often, June 2014
                        • Most use mixes for taste and convenience
                          • Figure 5: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, June 2014
                        • Most say preferred brand is important; premium, BFY attributes also important
                          • Figure 6: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, June 2014
                        • What we think
                        • Issues and Insights

                            • What consumer groups are most likely to use baking/dessert mixes?
                              • Insight: Brands must target specific demographics
                                • Can mix brands overcome perceptions of unhealthiness?
                                  • Insight: BFY versions will help overcome unhealthy perceptions
                                    • How can mix brands compete with RTE, packaged brands?
                                      • Insight: Mix brands should focus on freshness, flavor
                                      • Trend Applications

                                          • Trend: Minimize Me
                                            • Trend: Non-Standard Society
                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                              • Key points
                                                • Sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes
                                                  • Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                  • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                • Flat sales as consumers bake at home less
                                                  • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                • Forecast methodology
                                                • Market Drivers

                                                  • Key points
                                                    • Health considerations limit usage
                                                      • Figure 10: Reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes or using less frequently, June 2014
                                                    • Obesity epidemic likely factors into declining sales
                                                      • Figure 11: Percentage of men aged 20 or older who are obese, 2001-04, 2005-08, 2009-12
                                                      • Figure 12: Percentage of women aged 20 or older who are obese, 2001-04, 2005-08, 2009-12
                                                    • Recovering consumer confidence spurs more dining out, packaged purchases
                                                      • Figure 13: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2004-14
                                                      • Figure 14: U.S. unemployment rate, 2004-14
                                                    • Presence of children drives usage; parents prefer natural, low sugar/fat
                                                      • Figure 15: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – once a month or more, by presence of children in household, June 2014
                                                    • Moms likely do most of the household baking
                                                      • Figure 16: Household usage of store-bought dry pancake and waffle, cake (not cake flour), brownie, and other mixes (including bread mixes), by moms with children in household, January 2013-March 2014
                                                  • Competitive Context

                                                    • Packaged pudding, gelatin, baked goods pose a threat for mix brands
                                                      • Figure 17: Household consumption of packaged pudding; flavored gelatin desserts; snack cakes (ready-to-eat); and frozen dessert cakes, muffins, pastries, and pies, by age, January 2013-March 2014
                                                      • Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                    • Less-affluent respondents most likely to eat RTE snack cakes and frozen baked goods
                                                      • Figure 19: Household consumption of snack cakes (ready-to-eat), by household income, January 2013-March 2014
                                                    • Packaged vs. mix product household consumption frequency
                                                      • Figure 20: Number of individual servings of snacks cakes (ready-to-eat) eaten in household last 30 days, January 2013-March 2014
                                                    • In-store bakeries take sales away from mix brands
                                                      • Figure 21: Total US sales and forecast of in-store bakery items, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                  • Segment Performance

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • Most segments decline
                                                        • Sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment
                                                          • Figure 22: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
                                                        • Sales and forecast of cake/pie mixes
                                                          • Figure 23: Total US retail sales and forecast of cake/pie mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                        • Sales and forecast of pudding/gelatin mixes
                                                          • Figure 24: Total US retail sales and forecast of pudding/gelatin mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                        • Sales and forecast of pancake/waffle/French toast mixes
                                                          • Figure 25: Total US retail sales and forecast of pancake/waffle/French toast mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                        • Sales and forecast of bread/muffin mixes
                                                          • Figure 26: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread/muffin mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                        • Sales and forecast of brownie mixes
                                                          • Figure 27: Total US retail sales and forecast of brownie mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                        • Sales and forecast of other mixes
                                                          • Figure 28: Total US retail sales and forecast of other mixes*, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                      • Retail Channels

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Supermarkets comprise 67% share of baking/dessert mix sales
                                                            • Sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel
                                                              • Figure 29: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
                                                            • Supermarkets lead but decline as mass merchandisers offer better value
                                                              • Figure 30: US supermarket sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                            • Other channels register solid growth between 2011 and 2014
                                                              • Figure 31: U.S. other channel sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                          • Leading Companies

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • Three leading companies all decline through MULO channels in 2014
                                                                • Manufacturer sales of baking and dessert mixes
                                                                  • Figure 32: MULO sales of baking and dessert mixes at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks, 2013 and 2014
                                                              • Brand Share – Cake/Pie Mixes

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Betty Crocker, Pillsbury decline; Duncan Hines increases 3.6%
                                                                    • Manufacturer sales of cake/pie mixes
                                                                      • Figure 33: MULO sales of cake/pie mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                    • Brand loyalty highest for Betty Crocker, but private label rivals all brands
                                                                      • Figure 34: Key purchase measures for top cake/cupcake/pie mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
                                                                  • Brand Share – Pudding/Gelatin Mixes

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • JELL-O leads segment by a wide margin but declines more than 3%
                                                                        • Manufacturer sales of pudding/gelatin mixes
                                                                          • Figure 35: MULO sales of pudding/gelatin mixes, 2013 and 2014
                                                                        • JELL-O has most brand loyalty but private label loyalty also high
                                                                          • Figure 36: Key purchase measures for top pudding/pie filling/mousse mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
                                                                      • Brand Share – Pancake/Waffle/French Toast Mixes

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Krusteaz, Hungry Jack grow as other brands flatline or decline
                                                                            • Manufacturer sales of pancake/waffle/French toast mixes
                                                                              • Figure 37: MULO sales of pancake/waffle/French toast mixes, 2013 and 2014
                                                                          • Brand Share – Brownie Mixes

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • All leading MULO brands decline
                                                                                • Manufacturer sales of brownie mixes
                                                                                  • Figure 38: MULO sales of brownie mixes, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                • Despite not being a leading brand, Ghirardelli maintains most brand loyalty
                                                                                  • Figure 39: Key purchase measures for top brownie mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
                                                                              • Brand Share – Bread/Muffin Mixes

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Flat to declining sales for most brands
                                                                                    • Manufacturer sales of bread/muffin mixes
                                                                                      • Figure 40: MULO sales of bread/muffin mixes, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                    • Jiffy experiences highest level of brand loyalty
                                                                                      • Figure 41: Key purchase measures for top bread/muffin mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
                                                                                  • Brand Share – Other Mixes

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Betty Crocker comprises more than half of the segment but declines 5%
                                                                                        • Manufacturer sales of other mixes
                                                                                          • Figure 42: MULO sales of other mixes, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                        • Buyers most loyal to Betty Crocker baking mixes
                                                                                          • Figure 43: Key purchase measures for top other mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
                                                                                      • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                        • Environmentally friendly packaging, ease of use, lead claims
                                                                                          • Figure 44: Top 10 baking ingredients and mixes claims, by percentage of total claims, 2009-13
                                                                                        • Ease of use likely to attract consumers looking for convenience
                                                                                          • Premium ingredients important to a majority of buyers
                                                                                            • Gluten-free claims increase significantly between 2012 and 2013
                                                                                            • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                              • Overview of the brand landscape
                                                                                                • Theme: Brands use social media to foster community of home bakers
                                                                                                  • Brand example: Betty Crocker
                                                                                                    • Brand example: Duncan Hines
                                                                                                      • Brand example: Pillsbury
                                                                                                      • Types of Baking and Dessert Mixes Used

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Most use pancake mix frequently
                                                                                                            • Figure 45: Types of baking/dessert mixes used, June 2014
                                                                                                          • 25-34 most likely to use monthly or more; monthly usage declines with age
                                                                                                            • Figure 46: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – Once a month or more, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                          • Less than $25K report least likelihood to use monthly or more
                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – Once a month or more, by household income, June 2014
                                                                                                        • Usage and Purchases of Baked Goods/Mixes Compared to a Year Ago

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Respondents most likely to be baking from scratch more than a year ago
                                                                                                                • Figure 48: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago, June 2014
                                                                                                              • 18-44 most likely to report more/same usage compared to a year ago
                                                                                                                • Figure 49: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – same amount or more often, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                              • Presence of children means more baking, baked good usage
                                                                                                                • Figure 50: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – same amount or more often, by presence of children in household, June 2014
                                                                                                            • Reasons for Using Baking/Dessert Mixes

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Flavor, convenience leading reasons for using baking/dessert mixes
                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by gender, June 2014
                                                                                                                  • 55+ most focused on convenience
                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                  • Households with kids most likely to use mixes because they like to bake
                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by presence of children in household, June 2014
                                                                                                                • Reasons for Buying Baking/Dessert Mixes

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Respondents most likely to buy favorite flavor, preferred brand
                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Reasons for buying baking/dessert mixes, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                    • Households with kids most likely to buy for special occasions
                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Reasons for buying baking/dessert mixes, by presence of children in household, June 2014
                                                                                                                    • Important Factors in Buying Baking/Dessert Mixes

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Preferred brand, occasion suitability most important purchase factors
                                                                                                                            • Figure 56: Important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, June 2014
                                                                                                                          • 25-34 most likely to cite healthy attributes as important
                                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                          • Households with kids most likely to cite numerous attributes as important
                                                                                                                            • Figure 58: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, by presence of children in household, June 2014
                                                                                                                        • Reasons for Not Using Baking/Dessert Mixes or Using Them Less Frequently

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Three in 10 are cutting back on baked goods/desserts
                                                                                                                              • Figure 59: Reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes or using less frequently, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                          • Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Blacks, Asians, Hispanics most likely to use mixes monthly or more
                                                                                                                                • Figure 60: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – once a month or more, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                              • Hispanics most likely to be using same amount/more competing products
                                                                                                                                • Figure 61: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – same amount or more often, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                              • Blacks, Hispanics most apt to say premium ingredients are important
                                                                                                                                • Figure 62: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                              • Types of baking and dessert mixes used
                                                                                                                                • Figure 63: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – once a month or more, by gender, June 2014
                                                                                                                              • Brands used
                                                                                                                                • Figure 64: Brands of dry pancake and waffle mixes used in household, January 2013-March 2014
                                                                                                                                • Figure 65: Brands of dry cake mixes used in household, January 2013-March 2014
                                                                                                                                • Figure 66: Brands of dry brownie mixes used in household, January 2013-March 2014
                                                                                                                                • Figure 67: Brands of other baking mixes used in the household, January 2013-March 2014
                                                                                                                              • Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago
                                                                                                                                • Figure 68: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – same amount or more often, by household income, June 2014
                                                                                                                              • Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes
                                                                                                                                • Figure 69: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                              • Reasons for buying baking/dessert mixes
                                                                                                                                • Figure 70: Reasons for buying baking/dessert mixes, by household income, June 2014
                                                                                                                              • Important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes
                                                                                                                                • Figure 71: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, by household income, June 2014
                                                                                                                              • Reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes or using them less frequently
                                                                                                                                • Figure 72: Reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes or using less frequently, by gender, June 2014
                                                                                                                              • Race/Hispanic origin
                                                                                                                                • Figure 73: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions

                                                                                                                                • Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                  • Continental Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                  • Darden Restaurants Inc.
                                                                                                                                  • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                  • Kraft Foods Inc. (U.S.A.)
                                                                                                                                  • Pillsbury
                                                                                                                                  • Pinnacle Foods Group Inc.
                                                                                                                                  • The J. M. Smucker Company

                                                                                                                                  Baking and Dessert Mixes - US - August 2014

                                                                                                                                  £3,174.67 (Excl.Tax)