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Baking Mixes - US - January 2016

"Total US sales of baking mixes declined in 2015 by 3.4% to $4.1 billion and are forecast to continue declining at this pace into 2020. Consumers are migrating away from packaged foods that contain artificial ingredients and preservatives and toward fresh alternatives found at in-store bakeries and specialty pastry shops. Millennials are very likely to use baking mixes but also very likely to bake from scratch and use ready-made products."

This report covers the following areas:

  • Sales declines projected
  • Consumers shifting away from packaged, processed foods
  • Convenience not necessarily important to key users

For the purposes of this report, Mintel defines baking mixes as:

  • Cake and pastry mixes – includes mixes for cakes, cupcakes, coffee cake, gingerbread, and pastries
  • Frosting – includes ready-to-use frosting, frosting mixes, and edible decorations
  • Bread and cookie mixes – includes mixes for brownies, cookies, cookie bars, muffins, and breads
  • Baking supplies – includes baking powder/soda, chips/baking chocolate/cocoa, coconut, graham cracker crumbs, marshmallow crème, baking cups/paper
  • Pancake/waffle/French toast mixes
  • Other baking mixes – all other baking mixes (principally all-purpose mix, such as Bisquick)

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Sales declines projected
            • Figure 1: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2010-20
          • Consumers shifting away from packaged, processed foods
            • Figure 2: Baking habits, September 2015
          • Convenience not necessarily important to key users
            • Figure 3: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Faster and easier, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
          • The opportunities
            • Capitalizing on the fun, social aspects of baking, especially among Millennials
              • Figure 4: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Enjoyment, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
            • Healthier, less-processed products likely to attract users shifting to fresh foods
              • Figure 5: Changes in healthier baking mix usage, September 2015
            • Natural channel sales of organic products provide example for mainstream brands
              • Figure 6: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Changing consumer eating/grocery shopping habits lead to decline
                • Baking supplies lead among segments, but all segments decline
                  • Overcoming preference for scratch baking, ready-made baked goods
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Sales decline due to shift in grocery shopping and eating habits
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baking mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of baking mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Baking supplies lead among segments
                      • Figure 9: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2015
                    • Declines forecasted for all segments
                      • Figure 10: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2010-20
                      • Figure 11: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2010-20
                    • Natural sales driven by organic, non-GMO products
                      • Figure 12: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
                      • Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
                  • Market Perspective

                    • Many key consumers prefer scratch baking, ready-made products
                      • Figure 14: Change in baking habits – Baking from scratch – CHAID – Tree output, September 2015
                      • Figure 15: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Scratch versus mix versus ready-made, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
                      • Figure 16: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Scratch versus mix versus ready-made, by presence of children, September 2015
                    • Changing eating/grocery shopping habits negatively impact mixes sales
                      • Figure 17: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Factors

                    • Increased consumer confidence means less home cooking
                      • Figure 18: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-November 2015
                    • Millennials, households with children represent opportunity
                      • Figure 19: US population by generation, 2010-20
                      • Figure 20: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                  • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                    • Most leading brands decline as more consumers avoid processed foods
                      • Premium brands, packaging overhauls, and organic intros spur growth
                        • On the horizon: less artificial ingredients, more organic and premium
                        • Manufacturer Sales of Baking Mixes

                          • General Mills leads but declines most
                            • Manufacturer sales of baking mixes
                              • Figure 21: Manufacturer sales of baking mixes, 2014 and 2015
                          • What’s Working?

                            • Ghirardelli leverages premium niche
                              • Figure 22: Ghirardelli YouTube promotional video, 2015
                              • Figure 23: MULO sales of Ghirardelli baking supplies, 2014 and 2015
                            • Aunt Jemima grows despite consumer ambivalence toward mixes
                              • Figure 24: MULO sales of Aunt Jemima pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, 2014 and 2015
                            • Krusteaz brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes also grows, offers organic
                              • Figure 25: Krusteaz YouTube channel video, 2015
                              • Figure 26: MULO sales of Krusteaz brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes, 2014 and 2015
                            • Private label increases sales as store brands focus on quality
                              • Figure 27: MULO sales of private label baking mixes, 2014 and 2015
                          • What’s Struggling?

                            • Many everyday brands drop as consumers bypass processed products
                              • Figure 28: MULO sales of select brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mix brands, 2014 and 2015
                              • Figure 29: MULO sales of select cake/cupcake/coffee cake/gingerbread/pastry mix brands, 2014 and 2015
                              • Figure 30: MULO sales of leading pancake/French toast/waffle mix brands, 2014 and 2015
                              • Figure 31: MULO sales of select frosting/frosting mixes/edible decorations brands, 2014 and 2015
                          • What’s Next?

                            • New product launches simplify ingredients, increase quality
                              • New organic breakfast mix brands provide examples for larger brands
                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                • Mix use threatened by scratch baking, ready-made products
                                  • Consumers shifting toward healthier foods, including mixes
                                    • Convenience is only part of the picture
                                      • Millennial pancake mix users interested in premium/healthy ingredients
                                        • Brands must do more to approximate homemade, scratch baking
                                        • Baking Habits

                                          • Ready-made baked goods, baking from scratch threaten mixes
                                            • Figure 32: Baking habits, September 2015
                                          • Catering to Millennial interest in baking
                                            • Figure 33: Baking habits, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
                                          • Families represent potential for mix brands, scratch baking, and ready-made
                                            • Figure 34: Baking habits, by presence of children, September 2015
                                          • Hispanics more likely than others to buy ready-made
                                            • Figure 35: Baking habits, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2015
                                          • Premium mixes may resonate with busy parents who still want to bake
                                            • Figure 36: Change in baking habits – CHAID – Table output, September 2015
                                        • Changes in Baking Mix Usage

                                          • Using healthier mixes
                                            • Figure 37: Changes in baking mix usage, September 2015
                                          • Millennials ahead of the curve on healthier mixes
                                            • Figure 38: Changes in baking mix usage, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
                                          • Special occasions, health considerations likely important to parents
                                            • Figure 39: Changes in baking mix usage, by presence of children, September 2015
                                          • Hispanics much more apt to use healthier mixes than non-Hispanics
                                            • Figure 40: Changes in baking mix usage, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2015
                                        • Baking Mix Usage Frequency

                                          • Most use baking mixes less than once a month or not at all
                                            • Figure 41: Baking mix usage frequency, September 2015
                                          • Older Millennials very likely to frequently use mixes
                                            • Figure 42: Baking mix usage frequency, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
                                          • Hispanics who do use mixes very likely to use them frequently
                                            • Figure 43: Baking mix usage frequency, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
                                        • Benefits of and Motivation for Using Baking Mixes

                                          • Convenience motivates many to use mixes
                                            • Figure 44: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes, September 2015
                                          • Millennials not necessarily swayed by baking mix convenience
                                            • Figure 45: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Convenience and enjoyment, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
                                          • Family households view baking as fun, less concerned with convenience
                                            • Figure 46: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Convenience, enjoyment, and household use, by presence of children, September 2015
                                          • Hispanics more likely to be motivated by enjoyment
                                            • Figure 47: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Convenience and enjoyment, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
                                        • Baking Mix Purchase Reasons

                                          • Brand loyalty appears relatively low
                                              • Figure 48: Baking mix purchase reasons, September 2015
                                            • Flavor key for Millennials
                                              • Figure 49: Baking mix purchase reasons – Flavor and appearance, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
                                          • Pancake/Waffle Mix Purchase Reasons

                                            • Preferred brands likely to motivate pancake/waffle mix purchases
                                              • Figure 50: Pancake/waffle mix purchase reasons – Ingredients and brand, September 2015
                                            • Millennials motivated by premium ingredients, healthy, organic
                                              • Figure 51: Pancake/waffle mix purchase reasons – Health-related, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
                                            • Premium, healthy products likely to appeal to Hispanics
                                              • Figure 52: Pancake/waffle mix purchase reasons – Health-related, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
                                          • Attitudes and Behaviors toward Baking Mixes

                                            • Scratch/homemade appeals for a range of reasons
                                              • Figure 53: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes, September 2015
                                            • Millennials focus on social/fun aspect of baking but may opt for scratch
                                              • Figure 54: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Social/enjoyment, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
                                            • Despite enjoying baking, many Hispanics may find reasons not to
                                              • Figure 55: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Taste, time, and guilt, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
                                          • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                            • Data sources
                                              • Sales data
                                                • Fan chart forecast
                                                  • Consumer survey data
                                                    • Abbreviations and terms
                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                      • Appendix – Market

                                                          • Figure 56: Total US sales and forecast of baking mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Market breakdown
                                                          • Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking mixes, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                                                          • Figure 58: Total US sales and forecast of baking supplies, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                          • Figure 59: Total US sales and forecast bread and cookie mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                          • Figure 60: Total US sales and forecast of cake and pastry mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                          • Figure 61: Total US sales and forecast of frosting, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                          • Figure 62: Total US sales and forecast of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                          • Figure 63: Total US sales and forecast of other baking mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                        • Retail channels
                                                          • Figure 64: Total US retail sales of baking mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                          • Figure 65: Total US retail sales of baking mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                                                        • Natural supermarket sales
                                                          • Figure 66: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks Oct. 6, 2013-Oct. 4, 2015
                                                          • Figure 67: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
                                                          • Figure 68: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by segment and organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
                                                          • Figure 69: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by brand positioning, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
                                                          • Figure 70: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by type*, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
                                                      • Appendix – Key Players

                                                        • Baking supplies
                                                          • Figure 71: MULO sales of baking supplies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                        • Bread and cookie mixes
                                                          • Figure 72: MULO sales of brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                        • Cake and pastry mixes
                                                          • Figure 73: MULO sales of cake/cupcake/coffee cake/gingerbread/pastry mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                        • Frosting
                                                          • Figure 74: MULO sales of frosting/frosting mixes/edible decorations, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                        • Pancake/French toast/waffle mixes
                                                          • Figure 75: MULO sales of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                        • Other baking mixes
                                                          • Figure 76: MULO sales of other baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                      • Appendix – Consumer

                                                        • CHAID Analysis methodology
                                                          • Figure 77: Change in baking habits – CHAID – Table output, September 2015
                                                        • Experian Simmons analysis
                                                          • Pancake/waffle mixes
                                                            • Figure 78: Household use of dry pancake/waffle mixes, July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 79: Brands of dry pancake/waffle mixes used, July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 80: Number of packages of dry pancake/waffle mix used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
                                                          • Dry cake mix
                                                            • Figure 81: Household use of dry cake mix, July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 82: Brands of dry cake mix used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 83: Brands of dry cake mix used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 84: Number of packages of dry cake mix used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
                                                          • Dry brownie mixes
                                                            • Figure 85: Household use of dry brownie mixes, July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 86: Brands of dry brownie mix used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 87: Brands of dry brownie mix used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 88: Number of packages of dry brownie mix used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
                                                          • Other baking mixes
                                                            • Figure 89: Household use of other baking mixes (including bread mixes), July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 90: What other baking mixes are used for, July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 91: Brands of other baking mixes used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 92: Brands of other baking mixes used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 93: Number of packages of other baking mixes used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
                                                          • Baking chips and pieces
                                                            • Figure 94: Household use of baking chips and pieces, July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 95: Flavors of baking chips and pieces used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 96: Brands of baking chips and pieces used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 97: Brands of baking chips and pieces used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 98: Number of packages of baking chips and pieces used by entire household in last 12 months, July 2014-September 2015
                                                          • Frosting
                                                            • Figure 99: Household use of frosting (store-bought), July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 100: Types of frosting used in household, July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 101: Brands of frosting used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
                                                            • Figure 102: Number of cans/packages of frosting used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015

                                                        Companies Covered

                                                        • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                        Baking Mixes - US - January 2016

                                                        £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)