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Beer - UK - December 2015

“That only 29% of beer drinkers are prepared to spend more than £4 per pint reflects the enduring price-sensitivity of the out-of-home beer market.”

– Chris Wisson, Senior Drinks Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Finding selling space for smaller beer brands
  • The importance of ‘craft’ and contract brewing
  • Cross-category promotions can boost beer and cider sales
  • How could the AB InBev acquisition of SABMiller alter the UK market?

 

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Covered in the report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Beer volumes stagnate while values make minor progress
              • Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of beer, 2010-20
              • Figure 2: Forecast of UK volume sales of beer, 2010-20
            • Lager’s fortunes dictate the market
              • Companies, brands and innovation
                • Stella holds off Foster’s challenge for top spot in lager
                  • Figure 3: Retail value sales of the top 10 beer brands in the UK, 2014/15*
                • Adspend plateaus in 2014
                  • The consumer
                    • 63% of adults drink beer
                      • Figure 4: Usage of types of beer, October 2015
                    • Supermarkets remain the most popular place to buy beer
                      • Only 29% of beer drinkers are prepared to spend more than £4 per pint
                        • ‘Classic’ pint glasses remain most popular
                          • 47% of beer drinkers think that beer marketing/advertising is too heavily aimed at men
                            • Figure 5: Attitudes towards beer, October 2015
                          • Low prices and recommendations key to trying something new
                            • Figure 6: Factors for encouraging trialling of new beers, October 2015
                          • What we think
                          • Issues and Insights

                            • Finding selling space for smaller beer brands
                              • The facts
                                • The implications
                                  • The importance of ‘craft’ and contract brewing
                                    • The facts
                                      • The implications
                                        • Cross-category promotions can boost beer and cider sales
                                          • The facts
                                            • The implications
                                              • How could the AB InBev acquisition of SABMiller alter the UK market?
                                                • The facts
                                                  • The implications
                                                  • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                    • Beer volumes stagnate
                                                      • Lager’s fortunes dictate the market
                                                        • The off-trade outperforms the on-trade
                                                        • Market Size and Segmentation

                                                          • Beer volumes stagnate while values make minor progress
                                                            • Figure 7: Total value and volume sales of beer, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 8: Forecast of UK value sales of beer, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 9: Forecast of UK volume sales of beer, 2010-20
                                                          • Lager’s fortunes dictate the market
                                                            • Figure 10: Total value and volume sales of lager, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 11: Forecast of UK value sales of lager, 2010-20
                                                          • Ales continue to achieve encouraging growth
                                                            • Figure 12: Total value and volume sales of ale/bitter, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 13: Forecast of UK value sales of ale/bitter, 2010-20
                                                          • Stout’s decline slows
                                                            • Figure 14: Total value and volume sales of stout/porter, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 15: Forecast of UK value sales of stout/porter, 2010-20
                                                        • Channels to Market

                                                          • The off-trade outperforms the on-trade
                                                              • Figure 16: Value and volume sales of beer, by channel, 2010-15
                                                          • Market Drivers

                                                            • Alcoholic drink prices continue to rise
                                                              • Figure 17: UK excise duty rates for selected alcoholic drinks, 2005-15
                                                            • UK consumers continue to cut back on alcohol
                                                              • The continued rise of craft
                                                                • An embattled on-trade industry
                                                                  • Bridging occasions and the gender divide
                                                                    • Population changes could also impact the market
                                                                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                                                      • The UK market set for notable change
                                                                        • Stella holds off Foster’s challenge for top spot in lager
                                                                          • Traditional canned ales under pressure
                                                                            • Little change in the stout/porter segment
                                                                              • Adspend plateaus in 2014
                                                                                • High-profile innovation remains commonplace
                                                                                • Market Share

                                                                                  • The UK market set for notable change
                                                                                      • Figure 18: Leading manufacturers’ shares of beer sales in the UK off-trade, 2014/15*
                                                                                    • Stella holds off Foster’s challenge for top spot in lager
                                                                                      • Figure 19: Retail value sales of the leading lager brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                    • Budweiser and Corona drive AB InBev’s strong performance
                                                                                      • Molson Coors also sees a mixed performance
                                                                                        • Heineken on the march
                                                                                          • Traditional canned ales under pressure
                                                                                            • Figure 20: Retail value sales of the leading ale/bitter brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                          • A number of big winners
                                                                                            • Little change in the stout/porter segment
                                                                                              • Figure 21: Retail value sales of the leading stout/porter brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                          • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                            • Beer adspend plateaus in 2014
                                                                                              • Figure 22: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on beer, 2012-15
                                                                                              • Figure 23: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on beer, by category, 2012-15
                                                                                            • Heineken leads the way in beer advertising
                                                                                              • AB InBev and Diageo also invest in their leading brands
                                                                                                • Figure 24: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on beer, by advertiser, 2014
                                                                                                • Figure 25: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on beer, by top 15 highest-spending brands, 2012-15
                                                                                              • Other selected lager campaigns
                                                                                                • Other selected ale/bitter campaigns
                                                                                                  • TV remains the most popular channel for advertisers
                                                                                                  • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                      • Guinness pushes innovation
                                                                                                        • Innovation in low- and non-alcoholic beer
                                                                                                          • Innovation in spirit beers (‘speers’)
                                                                                                            • Other selected NPD activity
                                                                                                            • Brand Research

                                                                                                                • What you need to know
                                                                                                                  • Brand map
                                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Attitudes towards and usage of selected beer brands, October 2015
                                                                                                                  • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                    • Figure 27: Key metrics for selected beer brands, October 2015
                                                                                                                  • Foster’s has perceived value advantage
                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Attitudes, by beer brand, October 2015
                                                                                                                  • Heineken most likely to be associated with being boring and tired
                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Brand personality – Macro image, October 2015
                                                                                                                  • Peroni offers a stylish option
                                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Brand personality – micro image, October 2015
                                                                                                                  • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                    • Peroni enjoys a premium sophisticated and stylish image
                                                                                                                      • Figure 31: User profile of Peroni, October 2015
                                                                                                                    • London Pride has a traditional and authentic image
                                                                                                                      • Figure 32: User profile of London Pride, October 2015
                                                                                                                    • Doom Bar has potential for further growth
                                                                                                                      • Figure 33: User profile of Doom Bar, October 2015
                                                                                                                    • Stella Artois scores highly on usage and trust
                                                                                                                      • Figure 34: User profile of Stella Artois, October 2015
                                                                                                                    • Coors Light seen as cool and refreshing, but lacks trust among consumers
                                                                                                                      • Figure 35: User profile of Coors Light, October 2015
                                                                                                                    • Foster’s value and convenience offsets negative perceptions
                                                                                                                      • Figure 36: User profile of Foster’s, October 2015
                                                                                                                    • Heineken could be vulnerable to competitors
                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: User profile of Heineken, October 2015
                                                                                                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                    • 63% of adults drink beer
                                                                                                                      • Supermarkets remain the most popular place to buy beer
                                                                                                                        • Only 29% of beer drinkers are prepared to go over £4 per pint
                                                                                                                          • ‘Classic’ pint glasses remain most popular
                                                                                                                            • 47% of beer drinkers think that beer marketing/advertising is too heavily aimed at men
                                                                                                                              • Low prices and recommendations key to trying something new
                                                                                                                              • Usage of Beer

                                                                                                                                • Beer penetration dips to 63%
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Usage of types of beer, October 2015
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Usage of types of beer, by location, October 2015
                                                                                                                                • Ale on the rise
                                                                                                                                  • Craft beer penetration remains at 20%
                                                                                                                                    • Under-35s drive usage in more niche segments
                                                                                                                                      • 62% of beer drinkers do so at least once a week
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Frequency of drinking beer, October 2015
                                                                                                                                    • Locations for Buying Beer

                                                                                                                                      • Supermarkets remain the most popular place to buy beer
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Locations for buying beer, October 2015
                                                                                                                                        • Online opportunities
                                                                                                                                          • 64% of beer drinkers buy beer from pubs/bars
                                                                                                                                          • On-trade Spending

                                                                                                                                            • Only 29% of beer drinkers are prepared to spend more than £4 per pint
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Amount willing to spend on a pint of beer, October 2015
                                                                                                                                            • £2-2.49 can be a lucrative bracket for half pints
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 43: Amount willing to spend on a half pint of beer, October 2015
                                                                                                                                          • Glassware Preferences

                                                                                                                                            • ‘Classic’ pint glasses remain most popular
                                                                                                                                              • Tulip glasses fall some way behind the nonic in popularity
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Glassware preferences when drinking beer, October 2015
                                                                                                                                              • Women are drawn to feminine glasses
                                                                                                                                              • Attitudes towards Beer

                                                                                                                                                • Attitudes towards buying beer
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Attitudes towards beer, October 2015
                                                                                                                                                  • Buying online and in person
                                                                                                                                                    • Many beer drinkers still look for the familiar in the on-trade
                                                                                                                                                      • Attitudes towards craft beer
                                                                                                                                                        • Attitudes towards the positioning of beer
                                                                                                                                                        • Enticements to Try New Beers

                                                                                                                                                          • Low prices key to trying something new…
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 46: Factors for encouraging trialling of new beers, October 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • …along with recommendations
                                                                                                                                                            • Various other factors can also be strong enticements
                                                                                                                                                              • Other factors only have limited resonance
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                                                                                                • Data sources
                                                                                                                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                    • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand research
                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Market Size and Segmentation

                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total beer market, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total beer market, by volume, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the lager market, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the lager market, by volume, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 51: Forecast of UK volume sales of lager, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the ale/bitter market, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the ale/bitter market, by volume, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 54: Forecast of UK volume sales of ale/bitter, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the stout/porter market, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the stout/porter market, by volume, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Forecast of UK volume sales of stout/porter, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Market Share

                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 58: Manufacturers’ shares of beer sales in the UK off-trade, 2014/15*
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 59: Retail volume sales of the leading lager brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 60: Retail volume sales of the leading ale/bitter brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 61: Retail volume sales of the leading stout/porter brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15

                                                                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                        To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                        Beer - UK - December 2015

                                                                                                                                                                        £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)