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Bread and Baked Goods - UK - January 2011

When Mintel last examined the market for Bread and Baked Goods in February 2009, rising wheat prices and the economic downturn were proving challenging for the category. Since then, penetration of bread has remained high at over 95%; however, frequency of bread consumption has continued to decrease.

  • Freshness is the top consideration for consumers buying bread, with 78% citing it above type and price.
  • With price featuring as only the third consideration for consumers, and with a substantial 38% explicitly expressing a willingness to pay more for a premium variety of loaf, there is scope for brands to achieve differentiation with an ethical stance.
  • Bread and baked goods face increasing competition from breakfast cereals for the all important breakfast occasion. This is one of the key reasons that while penetration of bread has remained high at over 95%, frequency of consumption is still in decline.
  • The increased innovation in healthier bread ranges has provided consumers with more choice, dampening the demand for white bread. While white bread remains the largest segment brown bread has seen faster growth and presents greater opportunities for premiumisation.
  • Own-label lost market share in 2010 as it failed to keep pace with the rest of the market even though just under half of all consumers claim they can taste the difference between branded and own-label bread ranges, with just over a half buying the same brand of bread for day-to-day use.
  • The demand for more natural products has been driven by a number of factors, including concerns about food safety and consumers’ greater scrutiny of food labels.

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Table of contents

  1. Issues in the Market

      • Key themes
        • Definitions
          • Bread
            • Baked goods
              • Excluded
                • Abbreviations
                • Future Opportunities

                    • A fresh aroma
                      • Bread for all
                      • Market in Brief

                        • Rising commodity prices push up price of bread
                          • Consumer health and eating habits
                            • Ongoing new product innovation
                              • Top bread and baked good choices
                                • Consumer attitudes and motivations
                                • Internal Market Environment

                                  • Key points
                                    • Breakfast eating habits
                                      • Figure 1: Attitudes towards breakfast, December 2009
                                    • Consumer eating habits
                                      • Figure 2: Agreement with attitudinal statements about food, 2006-10
                                    • Responding to food allergies
                                      • Obesity concerns prevail
                                        • Figure 3: Prevalence of obesity in adults, by gender, 2003 and 2010
                                      • Snacking trends
                                        • Figure 4: Agreement with lifestyle statement “I often eat between meals, I keep eating snacks”, 2005-10
                                    • Broader Market Environment

                                      • Key points
                                        • Unstable wheat prices
                                          • Figure 5: UK commodity price of cereals, January 2004-November 2010
                                        • Population change effects on baked goods
                                          • Figure 6: Percentage change in the UK population, by age group, 2010-15
                                        • Changing UK population profile
                                          • An increase in single-person households
                                            • Figure 7: UK households, by size, 2005-15
                                        • Competitive Context

                                          • Key points
                                            • Breakfast choices
                                              • Steady growth in breakfast cereals
                                                • Figure 8: UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals and cereal bars, at current prices, 2005-10
                                            • Who’s Innovating?

                                              • Key points
                                                • Own-label products dominate launches
                                                  • Figure 9: New product launches in bread and baked goods – own-label vs brands, 2008-10*
                                                • A drive for more natural products
                                                    • Figure 10: Top positioning claim for bread and baked goods launches – UK, 2008-10*
                                                  • Range extensions to expand product range
                                                    • Figure 11: NPD activity, by launch type within the bread and baked goods market – UK, 2008-10*
                                                  • More pack sizes
                                                    • Figure 12: NPD activity, by pack size, within the bread and baked goods market – UK, 2008-10*
                                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                                  • Key points
                                                    • Fluctuating costs puts pressure on bread producers
                                                      • Figure 13: UK value sales of bread and bakery goods, 2005-15
                                                    • Baked goods become more popular
                                                      • Figure 14: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods, by sector, 2005-15
                                                    • The future of the market
                                                      • Market size forecast
                                                        • Figure 15: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods, 2005-15
                                                      • Forecast methodology
                                                      • Segment Performance – Bread

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Volume sales of bread hold firm
                                                            • Figure 16: UK retail volume and value sales of bread, 2005-15
                                                          • Healthier bread options receive a boost
                                                            • Figure 17: UK retail volume sales of breads, by type, 2008-10
                                                          • Premium products perform well
                                                            • Figure 18: UK retail value sales of breads, by type, 2008-10
                                                          • Plant bakeries essential in building awareness
                                                            • Figure 19: UK retail value sales of wrapped bread, by type, 2008-10
                                                          • Speciality bread continues to be popular
                                                            • Figure 20: UK retail value sales of speciality bread, by type, 2008-10
                                                        • Segment Performance – Baked Goods

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Steady growth in baked goods sales
                                                              • Figure 21: UK retail value of baked goods, 2005-15
                                                            • Plant bakeries diversify further in baked goods
                                                              • Figure 22: UK retail value sales of baked goods, by source, 2008-10
                                                            • Bread rolls prove their position
                                                              • Figure 23: UK retail value sales of rolls, bakery snacks and foreign recipe products, 2008-10
                                                            • Indulgence and comfort foods perform best
                                                              • Figure 24: UK retail value sales of bakery snacks and foreign recipe products, by type, 2008-10
                                                          • Market Share

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • Warburtons maintain market lead
                                                                • Figure 25: Manufacturers’ shares in (wrapped) plant-produced breads, 2008-10
                                                              • Hovis bread ranges delisted
                                                                • Kingsmill keep up the competition
                                                                  • Own label sales falter in the face of branded competition
                                                                    • Baked goods
                                                                      • Own label holds the lead in baked goods
                                                                        • Figure 26: Brand shares in plant-produced baked goods, UK, 2008-10
                                                                    • Companies and Products

                                                                        • Figure 27: Key brands and manufacturers in the bread and baked goods category, 2010
                                                                      • Allied Bakeries Ltd
                                                                          • Figure 28: New product launches in the UK by Allied Bakeries Ltd, January 2008-September 2010
                                                                        • Brace’s Bakery Limited
                                                                          • Cuisine de France
                                                                            • Greggs plc
                                                                              • Inter Link Foods/McCambridge Foods Limited
                                                                                  • Figure 29: New product launches in the UK by McCambridge Foods Ltd, January 2008-september 2010
                                                                                • Warburtons Ltd
                                                                                    • Figure 30: Examples of New product launches in the uk by Warburtons Ltd, January 2008-September 2010
                                                                                  • Premier Foods
                                                                                      • Figure 31: New product launches in the uk by Premier Foods, January 2008-September 2010
                                                                                  • Brand Elements

                                                                                    • Brand map
                                                                                        • Figure 32: Attitudes towards and purchase of bread and baked goods brands, December 2010
                                                                                      • Brand attitudes
                                                                                        • Figure 33: Attitudes by bread and baked goods brand, December 2010
                                                                                      • Brand personality
                                                                                        • Figure 34: Bread and baked goods brand personality – macro image, December 2010
                                                                                        • Figure 35: Bread and baked goods brand personality – micro image, December 2010
                                                                                      • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                        • Brand experience
                                                                                          • Figure 36: Bread and baked goods brand purchase, December 2010
                                                                                          • Figure 37: Satisfaction with various Bread and baked goods brands, February 2010
                                                                                          • Figure 38: Consideration of bread and baked goods brands, December 2010
                                                                                          • Figure 39: Consumer perceptions of current bread and baked goods brand performance, December 2010
                                                                                          • Figure 40: Bread and baked goods brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, December 2010
                                                                                        • Brand index
                                                                                          • Figure 41: Bread and baked goods brand index, December 2010
                                                                                          • Figure 42: Bread and baked goods brand index vs. recommendation, December 2010
                                                                                        • Target group analysis
                                                                                          • Figure 43: Target groups, December 2010
                                                                                          • Figure 44: Bread and baked goods brand usage, by target groups, December 2010
                                                                                        • Group One – The Conformists
                                                                                          • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                            • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                              • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                • Group Five – The Individualists
                                                                                                • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Defending market share with ad spend
                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Main monitored media advertising spend on bread and bakeries, 2007-10
                                                                                                    • Brands invest larger share of spend on press and radio
                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Adspend by media type, 2006-08
                                                                                                    • Allied Bakeries leads spend
                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Main monitored media advertising spend on bread and bakeries, by advertiser, 2007-10
                                                                                                    • Broadening brand appeal
                                                                                                    • Channels to Market

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • Grocery multiples affirm their position
                                                                                                          • Figure 48: Retail distribution of bread and baked goods, 2008-10
                                                                                                        • Exploiting opportunities in convenience stores
                                                                                                        • The Consumer – Bread and Baked Goods Consumption

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Bread eaten less frequently
                                                                                                              • Consumers opt for healthier options
                                                                                                                • Figure 49: Types of bread eaten most often, 2006-09
                                                                                                              • French bread top choice for consumer
                                                                                                                • Figure 50: Types of bread eaten and/or bought in the last six months, November 2010
                                                                                                                • Figure 52: Types of bakery goods (excluding bread/rolls) eaten in the last six months, November 2010
                                                                                                              • Crumpets are the top choice
                                                                                                                  • Figure 53: Types of baked good eaten by men and women in the last six months, November 2010
                                                                                                              • The Consumer – Attitudes towards Bread

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • The freshness factor
                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Factors influencing the choice of bread bought, November 2010
                                                                                                                    • Figure 55: Key priorities when buying bread, by demographic groups, November 2010
                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Agreement or disagreements with statements about bread, November 2010
                                                                                                                • Targeting Opportunities for Bread Products

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Target groups for bread products, November 2010
                                                                                                                    • Price Focused
                                                                                                                      • Brand Value Seekers
                                                                                                                        • Premium Home Bakers
                                                                                                                          • Own-label Switchers
                                                                                                                          • Appendix

                                                                                                                            • Consumer research
                                                                                                                              • Advertising data
                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                  • Figure 58: Agreement with selected lifestyle statement “I often eat between meals, I keep eating snacks “, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                  • Figure 59: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2005-15
                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                                                                  • Figure 60: Top positioning claim for bread and baked goods by manufacturer, 2008-10
                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Segment Performance

                                                                                                                                  • Figure 61: NPD in bread and bread products, % by company 2008-10
                                                                                                                              • Appendix – The Consumer – Bread and Baked Goods Consumption

                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Frequency of bread consumption, 2006-08
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 63: Frequency of bread consumption, 2009
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 64: Agreement with the statement ‘I eat a lot of bread’, 2006-10
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 65: Agreement with the statement ‘I eat a lot of bread’, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 66: Types of bread eaten and/or bought in the last six months, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 67: Types of bread eaten in the last six months, by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 68: Types of bread eaten in the last six months, by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Types of bread eaten in the last six months, by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Types of bread bought in the last six months, by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Types of bread bought in the last six months, by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Types of bread bought in the last six months, by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 73: Types of bakery goods (excluding bread/rolls) eaten in the last six months, by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 74: Types of bakery goods (excluding bread/rolls) eaten in the last six months, by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 75: Types of bakery goods (excluding bread/rolls) eaten in the last six months, by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 76: Types of bakery goods (excluding bread/rolls) eaten in the last six months, by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 77: Types of bakery goods (excluding bread/rolls) eaten in the last six months, by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 78: Types of bakery goods (excluding bread/rolls) eaten in the last six months, by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Attitudes towards Bread

                                                                                                                                  • Figure 80: Factors influencing the choice of bread bought, by most popular types of bread bought in the last six months, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 81: Factors influencing the choice of bread bought, by next most popular types of bread bought in the last six months, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 82: Factors influencing the choice of bread bought, by other types of bread bought in the last six months, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 83: Factors influencing the choice of bread bought, by least popular types of bread bought in the last six months, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 84: Types of bread bought in the last six months, by most popular factors influencing the choice of bread bought, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 85: Types of bread bought in the last six months, by next most popular factors influencing the choice of bread bought, November 2010
                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Targeting Opportunities for Bread Products

                                                                                                                                  • Figure 97: Target groups for bread, by demographics, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 98: Types of bread eaten in the last six months, by target groups, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 99: Types of bread bought in the last six months, by target groups, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 100: Repertoire of types of bread bought in the last six months, by target groups, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 101: Agreement or disagreements with statements about bread, by target groups, November 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 102: Factors influencing the choice of bread bought, by target groups, November 2010

                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                              • Allied Bakeries Ltd
                                                                                                                              • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                              • Associated British Foods Plc
                                                                                                                              • Bank of England
                                                                                                                              • Brace's Bakery Ltd
                                                                                                                              • British Nutrition Foundation
                                                                                                                              • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                              • Council of Mortgage Lenders
                                                                                                                              • Duchy Originals
                                                                                                                              • Government Actuary's Department (GAD)
                                                                                                                              • Inter Link Foods Plc
                                                                                                                              • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                              • Kantar Media
                                                                                                                              • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                              • Nestlé UK Ltd
                                                                                                                              • Ofcom
                                                                                                                              • Premier Foods plc
                                                                                                                              • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                              • Waitrose Ltd
                                                                                                                              • Weight Watchers Ltd. (UK)
                                                                                                                              • Wm Morrison Supermarkets

                                                                                                                              Bread and Baked Goods - UK - January 2011

                                                                                                                              £1,750.00 (Excl.Tax)