Sorry for interrupting, this website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Learn more
Accept & Close

Bread and Baked Goods - UK - January 2012

“To more effectively compete with own-label, brands need to emotionally engage with consumers, extolling the virtues of their expertise and – in the case of the older bakeries – heritage. But they are likely to struggle to achieve this without a stronger media presence.”

– Alex Beckett, Senior Food Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How can bread brands win back share from own-label?
  • How can the bread market re-engage with the ABs?
  • How can manufacturers entice more 16-24s into the wrapped sliced bread market?
  • Which bakery areas should branded manufacturers venture into?

What you get

What's included

Why buy from us?

Succeed

Our reports will provide you with market data, consumer research and competitive intelligence to succeed in your market.

Instant Access

Buy now and you'll have instant access to the information you need to make the right decisions.

Opportunities

Find out what's next in the markets that matter to you: where opportunities lie and what challenges you will face.

Trusted

A business Superbrand, Mintel is a source you can trust. We have been defining and refining the Market Intelligence mix since 1972.

Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definitions
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods, by sector, 2011
            • Forecast
              • Figure 2: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods*, 2006-16
            • Market factors
              • Bread strikes a chord with consumers at breakfast and lunchtime
                • Figure 3: Eating occasions for bread and baked goods, October 2011
              • Inflation in bread-making wheat dips in mid-2011 although the long-term outlook remains volatile
                • Figure 4: Monthly prices of breadmaking wheat, Jan 2006-Jul 2011
              • Ageing population bodes well for sliced bread
                • Companies, brands and innovation
                  • Share of own-label NPD overtakes branded
                    • Advertising support nosedives in 2010
                      • Figure 5: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on bread and baked goods, 2007-11
                    • Warburtons leads a concentrated market
                      • Figure 6: Brand shares in wrapped plant-produced bread, 2011
                      • Figure 7: Brand shares and value sales in wrapped plant-produced breads, 2009-11
                    • The consumer
                      • Fewer adults are eating sliced bread daily
                        • Figure 8: Usage of bread in the last 12 months, 2010-11
                      • Attitudes towards bread and bakery goods
                        • Figure 9: Attitudes towards bread, October 2011
                      • Healthier recipes can be a draw for over half of bread eaters
                        • Issues considered important when choosing a bread product
                          • Bread users prioritise freshness above all other factors
                            • Figure 10: Issues considered important when choosing a bread product, October 2011
                          • Use of British ingredients is only a minor concern for most
                            • What we think
                            • Issues in the Market

                                • How can bread brands win back share from own-label?
                                  • How can the bread market re-engage with the ABs?
                                    • How can manufacturers entice more 16-24s into the wrapped sliced bread market?
                                      • Which bakery areas should branded manufacturers venture into?
                                      • Future Opportunities

                                          • Trend: A Simple Balance for Health
                                            • Trend: Hungry Planet
                                            • Internal Market Environment

                                              • Key points
                                                • Bakery products are popular breakfast choices
                                                  • Figure 11: Breakfast items eaten in the home, June 2011
                                                • Free-from sales are soaring
                                                  • Figure 12: Estimated UK retail sales* of free-from foods, by value, 2006-11
                                                  • Figure 13: Estimated value of leading UK gluten/wheat-free brands in the free-from foods sector, 2009 and 2010
                                                • Low interest in fibre and health could hamper sector growth
                                                  • Figure 14: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2007-11
                                                • Price conscious consumers make more sandwiches at home
                                                  • Figure 15: Sandwich and bread eating habit trends, November 2010-September 2011
                                              • Broader Market Environment

                                                • Key points
                                                  • Breadmaking wheat prices remain volatile
                                                    • Figure 16: Monthly prices of breadmaking wheat in the UK, January 2006-July 2011
                                                  • Older population set for growth
                                                    • Figure 17: Projected trends in population growth, by age, 2011-16
                                                  • Bread could benefit from fragile consumer outlook
                                                    • Figure 18: Monthly consumer confidence index, January 2007-December 2011
                                                • Competitive Context

                                                  • Key points
                                                    • Breakfast cereal sales plateau
                                                      • Figure 19: Selected breakfast items eaten in the home, by gender and age, June 2011
                                                      • Figure 20: UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals, 2006-11
                                                    • Shop-bought sandwiches feel the pinch
                                                      • Figure 21: UK retail value sales of sandwiches, 2005-10
                                                  • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                    • Strengths
                                                      • Weaknesses
                                                      • Who’s Innovating?

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • NPD levels remain fairly static
                                                            • Figure 22: Share of bread and baked goods NPD within the total UK food market, 2007-11
                                                          • Own-label increases share of NPD
                                                            • Figure 23: Share of branded and own-label NPD in the UK bread and baked goods market, 2007-11*
                                                          • Warburtons dominates NPD activity
                                                            • Figure 24: Share of brands in NPD in the UK bread and baked goods market, 2007-11*
                                                          • Warburtons leads in NPD
                                                            • Major grocers enter free-from market
                                                              • Bread alternatives get the big brand treatment
                                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Sales growth stumbles
                                                                    • Figure 25: Value sales for bread and baked goods*, 2006-16
                                                                  • The future of the market
                                                                    • Value growth is expected to rally
                                                                      • Bread and baked goods market forecast
                                                                        • Figure 26: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods*, 2006-16
                                                                      • Forecast methodology
                                                                      • Segment Performance

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Sales by key sector
                                                                            • Figure 27: UK retail value sales of key bread and bakery sectors, 2010-11
                                                                          • Pre-packed bread
                                                                            • Figure 28: UK retail volume sales of pre-packed bread, 2006-11
                                                                            • Figure 29: UK retail value sales of key wrapped bread sectors, 2010-11
                                                                          • Morning goods
                                                                            • Figure 30: UK retail value sales of key morning goods sectors, 2010-11
                                                                          • Speciality bread
                                                                            • Figure 31: UK retail value shares of key speciality bread sectors, 2010-11
                                                                          • In-store bakeries
                                                                            • Figure 32: Total retail value sales of bread and baked goods baked in in-store bakeries, 2010-11
                                                                        • Market Share

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Warburtons leads a concentrated market
                                                                              • Figure 33: Brand shares in wrapped plant-produced bread, 2011
                                                                              • Figure 34: Brand shares and value sales in wrapped plant-produced breads, 2009-11
                                                                            • Kingsmill enjoys growth ahead of the wider segment
                                                                              • Health-led brands fare well
                                                                              • Companies and Products

                                                                                • Allied Bakeries Ltd
                                                                                    • Figure 35: Selected product launches in the UK by Allied Bakeries Ltd between November 2010 and October 2011
                                                                                  • Aryzta
                                                                                    • Brace’s Bakery Limited
                                                                                      • Greggs plc
                                                                                        • McCambridge Foods Limited
                                                                                          • Premier Foods
                                                                                              • Figure 36: Selected products launched in the UK by Premier Foods Limited between January 2010 and October 2011
                                                                                            • Warburtons Ltd
                                                                                                • Figure 37: Selected product launches in the UK by Warburtons Ltd between January 2010 and September 2011
                                                                                            • Brand Research

                                                                                              • Brand map
                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the bread sector, November 2011
                                                                                                • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                  • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Attitudes by bread brand, November 2011
                                                                                                  • Brand personality
                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Bread brand personality – macro image, November 2011
                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Bread brand personality – micro image, November 2011
                                                                                                  • Brand experience
                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Bread brand usage, November 2011
                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Satisfaction with various bread brands, November 2011
                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Consideration of bread brands, November 2011
                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Consumer perceptions of current bread brand performance, November 2011
                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Bread brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, November 2011
                                                                                                  • Brand index
                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Bread brand index, November 2011
                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Bread brand index vs. recommendation, November 2011
                                                                                                  • Target group analysis
                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Target groups, November 2011
                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Bread brand usage, by target groups, November 2011
                                                                                                  • Group One – Conformists
                                                                                                    • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                      • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                        • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                          • Group Five – Individualists
                                                                                                          • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Ad spend slumps in 2010, falling further in 2011
                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on bread and baked goods, 2007-10
                                                                                                              • Warburtons is the biggest advertiser
                                                                                                                • Figure 52: Advertising expenditure in the UK bread and baked goods market, by top 10 companies, 2007-11
                                                                                                            • Channels to Market

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Multiples dominate bakery
                                                                                                                  • Figure 53: Estimated retail distribution of bread and baked goods, 2008-11
                                                                                                                • Craft Bakers
                                                                                                                • Consumer – Usage of Bread

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Bread is a family favourite
                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Usage of bread, all users, 2011
                                                                                                                    • Daily bread usage dips
                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Usage of bread in the last 12 months, 2010-11
                                                                                                                    • Alternative types of bread attract more medium users
                                                                                                                    • Consumer – Types of Bread Products Used Most Often

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Frequent usage of sliced bread increases among users
                                                                                                                          • Figure 56: Types of breads used most often in the last 12 months, 2010-11
                                                                                                                        • Pricier, speciality bread types record slight declines in usage as most often used bread
                                                                                                                        • Consumer – Eating Occasions for Bread and Baked Goods

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Figure 57: Eating occasions for bread and baked goods, October 2011
                                                                                                                            • Bread is just as likely to be eaten for dinner than as a snack
                                                                                                                              • Figure 58: Usage of bread and baked goods as a snack in between meals, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                          • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Bread

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • In-store bakery has the taste advantage
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 59: Attitudes towards bread, October 2011
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 60: Agreement with the statements ‘Bread baked in in-store bakeries tastes better than wrapped bread,’ and ‘I would pay more for a bread if I knew it was recently baked,’ by gender and age, October 2011.
                                                                                                                                • Further potential for healthy breads, especially among younger bread users…
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 61: Agreement with the statement: ‘I would eat healthier/low-fat bread more often if it were less expensive,’ by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                                • … although consumer trust in bread’s healthiness is not a guarantee of sales growth
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Agreement with the statement: ‘I would buy more bread if I was convinced it was good for me,’ by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                                • Thrifty behaviour: one in two users now freezes bread
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 63: Agreement with the statement: ‘I am freezing bread more often to make it last longer,’ by age and socio-economic group, October 2011
                                                                                                                                • Home-made bread remains rare
                                                                                                                                  • Young and old have polarised views on brand loyalty
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 64: Agreement with the statement ‘I usually buy whatever brand of bread is on promotion,’ by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                                  • Consumers unconvinced about branded superiority over own-label
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 65: agreement with the statement ‘Branded bread tastes better than own-label bread,’ October 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 66: agreement with the statement ‘I have switched to buying own-label bread,’ by age group, October 2011
                                                                                                                                  • Nearly three in ten would like to see a wider variety of flavours in sliced bread
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 67: agreement with the statement ‘I would like to see a wider variety of flavours (eg honey) in sliced, wrapped bread,’ October 2011
                                                                                                                                • Consumer – Issues Considered Important When Choosing a Bread Product

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • Bread users prioritise freshness above all other factors
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 68: Issues considered important when choosing a bread product, October 2011
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 69: Selected issues considered important when choosing a bread product, by age, October 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Best before/use by dates
                                                                                                                                        • 16-24s and Ds place the most importance on price
                                                                                                                                        • Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Four target groups
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Target groups, October 2011
                                                                                                                                            • Brand Loyalists (27%)
                                                                                                                                              • Home Bakers (19%)
                                                                                                                                                • Big Potentials (22%)
                                                                                                                                                  • The Price-Leds (32%)
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Most popular items eaten for breakfast in the home, by demographics, June 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 72: Next most popular items eaten for breakfast in the home, by demographics, June 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Eating habit trends, by demographics, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 75: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 76: Product launches within the UK bread and baked goods market, by private label, 2007-11*
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 77: Additional best case/worst case forecast for bread and baked goods, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 78: Brand usage, November 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 79: Brand commitment, November 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 80: Brand momentum, November 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 81: Brand diversity, November 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 82: Brand satisfaction, November 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 83: Brand recommendation, November 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 84: Brand attitude, November 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 85: Brand image – macro image, November 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 86: Brand image – micro image, November 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 87: Profile of target groups, by demographic, November 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 88: Psychographic segmentation, by target group, November 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 89: Brand usage, by target group, November 2011
                                                                                                                                                    • Brand index
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 90: Brand index, November 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Bread

                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 91: Usage of packaged sliced bread, by demographics, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Types of Bread Products Used Most Often

                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 92: Usage of other types of bread, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 93: Types of breads used most often in the last 12 months, 2010-11
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer – Eating Occasions for Bread and Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 94: Eating occasions for bread and baked goods, by demographics, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Bread

                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 95: Agreement with statements ‘I would eat healthier/low-fat bread more often if it were less expensive’ and ‘I would buy more bread if i was convinced it was good for me’, by demographics, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 96: Agreement with statements ‘Branded bread tastes better than own-label bread’ and ‘I usually buy whatever brand of bread is on promotion’, by demographics, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 97: Agreement with statements ‘I am freezing bread more often to make it keep longer’ and ‘I have switched to buying own-label bread’, by demographics, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 98: Agreement with statements ‘I would pay more for a bread if i knew it was recently baked’ and ‘I regularly make my own bread’, by demographics, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 99: Agreement with statements ‘Bread baked in in-store bakeries tastes better than wrapped bread’ and ‘Toast is a healthier breakfast option than most cereals’, by demographics, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 100: Agreement with statement ‘I would like to see a wider variety of flavours’, by demographics, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer – Issues Considered Important When Choosing a Bread Product

                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 101: Most popular issues considered important when choosing a bread product, by demography, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 102: Next most popular issues considered important when choosing a bread product, by demography, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 103: Consumer target group, by demographics, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 104: Attitudes towards bread, by consumer target group, October 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 105: Issues considered important when choosing a bread product, by target group, October 2011

                                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                  • Aldi Stores Ltd (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                  • Allied Bakeries Ltd
                                                                                                                                                  • Amazon.co.uk
                                                                                                                                                  • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                  • ASOS (UK retail sales)
                                                                                                                                                  • Associated British Foods Plc
                                                                                                                                                  • Bank of England
                                                                                                                                                  • Bebo Inc
                                                                                                                                                  • Brace's Bakery Ltd
                                                                                                                                                  • British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC)
                                                                                                                                                  • British Sky Broadcasting Group plc (BSkyB)
                                                                                                                                                  • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                  • Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
                                                                                                                                                  • Discovery Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                  • Dr Schär Deutschland GmbH
                                                                                                                                                  • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                  • Finsbury Food Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                  • Freshway Foods
                                                                                                                                                  • FriendsReunited
                                                                                                                                                  • Genius Foods
                                                                                                                                                  • Gfk NOP
                                                                                                                                                  • Google UK
                                                                                                                                                  • Government Actuary's Department (GAD)
                                                                                                                                                  • Greggs Plc
                                                                                                                                                  • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                  • Kantar Media
                                                                                                                                                  • Kelkoo S.A.
                                                                                                                                                  • Krispy Kreme UK
                                                                                                                                                  • La Brea Holdings, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                  • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                                                                  • LinkedIn
                                                                                                                                                  • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                  • McCambridge Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                  • McDonald's Restaurants Limited (UK)
                                                                                                                                                  • Mission Foods Europe
                                                                                                                                                  • mmO2 plc
                                                                                                                                                  • Moto
                                                                                                                                                  • MySpace.com
                                                                                                                                                  • Netto Foodstores Ltd
                                                                                                                                                  • Ocado
                                                                                                                                                  • Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                                                                  • Panini UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                  • Premier Foods plc
                                                                                                                                                  • Pret A Manger
                                                                                                                                                  • T-Mobile (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                  • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                  • Trufree
                                                                                                                                                  • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                  • United Nations
                                                                                                                                                  • Virgin Media Ltd
                                                                                                                                                  • Virgin Mobile
                                                                                                                                                  • Vodafone Group Plc (UK)
                                                                                                                                                  • Waitrose Ltd
                                                                                                                                                  • Warburtons
                                                                                                                                                  • Weight Watchers Ltd. (UK)
                                                                                                                                                  • Western Morning News
                                                                                                                                                  • Wm Morrison Supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                  • YouTube, Inc.

                                                                                                                                                  Bread and Baked Goods - UK - January 2012

                                                                                                                                                  £1,750.00 (Excl.Tax)