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Bread and Baked Goods - UK - October 2015

"Health-related concerns are amongst the key barriers to more frequent usage of packaged sliced bread among infrequent users. Among these concerns, carbohydrates and calorie content are on a par."
- Amy Price, Senior Food and Drink Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

  • Interest in healthier varieties of bread could help to alleviate concerns 
  • Pushing indulgence could help to position bread as more of a treat
  • NPD offers a route to stand out in a crowded and declining market

Total sales of bread and baked goods grew by almost 8% over 2010-15, with volumes seeing a 0.7% fall over this period.

Eight in 10 UK adults buy packaged sliced loaves of bread and nine in 10 eat it, demonstrating the popularity of the product as a household staple. Value sales saw a decline over 2014-15, however, impacting sales in the overall market, prepacked bread accounting for more than two fifths of the bread and baked goods market.

Health-related concerns are amongst the key barriers to more frequent usage of packaged sliced bread among infrequent users. Among these concerns, carbohydrates and calorie content are on a par. This report examines the retail market for bread and baked goods in the UK.

This report examines the retail market for bread and baked goods in the UK. For the purpose of this report the market is classified as follows

Bread:

  • Mintel’s definition follows the classification used in the baking industry, and includes a wide variety of both traditional British products and other breads not of UK origin.
  • Traditional British breads include: white, brown and wholemeal, which may be sliced or unsliced, wrapped or unwrapped. A distinction is drawn between bread that is baked by plant/factory bakeries and stocked on grocery shelves (also called prepacked bread), and bread that is baked by in-store bakers. Part-baked products are also included. 

Sweet Baked Goods:

  • The sweet baked goods market can be subdivided into: brioche loaves and rolls, croissants, crumpets, English muffins, farls, fruit loaves, hot cross buns, Irish bread, malt loaves, pains au chocolat and raisins, pikelets, potato cakes, scones, teacakes, American muffins, fruit buns and iced buns.
  • Doughnuts are also included in the market value as they are stocked with other baked goods.
  • Please note that the market size for this report differs from the Mintel Market Sizes Sweet Bakery market size because MMS Sweet Bakery includes other products such as chilled cakes, pies and tarts, which are outside the scope of this report, and outside the scope of the market size for this report.
  • The market size for this report differs from the MMS Bread and Bread Products market size because MMS Bread and Bread Products includes savoury pastries and pies (eg meat pies/quiche) which are outside the scope of this report. MMS Bread and Bread Products also exclude unpackaged/unwrapped products and sweet baked goods such as croissants and fruit loaf, which are included within the market size for this report.

Speciality Bread:

  • For the purposes of this report, the speciality bread market is taken to include: bagels, baguettes, pittas, wraps, chapattis, naan breads, panini and garlic bread (brown, seeded and white, but excluding chilled garlic bread).
 

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this report
        • Bread
          • Sweet baked goods
            • Speciality bread
            • Executive Summary

              • The market
                • Figure 1: UK retail value sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2010-20
              • Bread’s health credentials remain under scrutiny
                • Supermarket price war hits the prepacked sliced loaf
                  • Increased incomes should support sales
                    • Companies, brands and innovation
                      • Brand revamps from leading players
                        • Warburtons loses sales and reduces spend
                          • Warburtons and Hovis lead on levels of trust and differentiation
                            • The consumer
                              • The packaged sliced loaf sees declining usage
                                • Figure 2: Types of bread bought in the past three months, June 2013, May 2014 and May 2015
                              • Sliced bread remains an everyday option
                                • Figure 3: Occasions when bread/baked goods are eaten, by type of product, May 2015
                              • Health concerns curb bread intake of 31% of infrequent users
                                • Figure 4: Reasons for not eating packaged sliced bread more often, May 2015
                              • Shoppers welcome brands to ISB
                                • Figure 5: Interest in bread/bread product concepts, May 2015
                            • Issues and Insights

                              • Interest in healthier varieties of bread could help to alleviate concerns
                                • The facts
                                  • The implications
                                    • Pushing indulgence could help to position bread as more of a treat
                                      • The facts
                                        • The implications
                                          • NPD offers a route to stand out in a crowded and declining market
                                            • The facts
                                              • The implications
                                              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                • Values and volumes decline in 2015
                                                  • Bread and baked goods are expected to see a drop over 2015-20
                                                    • Bread’s health credentials remain under scrutiny
                                                      • Supermarket price war hits the prepacked sliced loaf
                                                        • Increased incomes should support sales
                                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                                          • Values and volumes decline in 2015
                                                            • Figure 6: UK retail value and volume sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2010-20
                                                          • Forecast
                                                            • Figure 7: UK retail value sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2010-20
                                                            • Figure 8: UK retail value volume sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2010-20
                                                        • Segment Performance

                                                          • Prepacked bread suffers fall in value sales and share
                                                            • Figure 9: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods, 2013-15
                                                            • Figure 10: UK retail volume sales of prepacked bread, 2010-15
                                                          • White bread maintains share despite sales fall
                                                            • Figure 11: UK retail sales of prepacked bread, by types, 2014 and 2015
                                                          • Sweet baked goods are estimated to see value growth in 2015
                                                            • Figure 12: UK retail sales of sweet baked goods, by type, 2013-15
                                                          • Speciality bread sees ongoing rise in sales
                                                            • Figure 13: UK retail value sales of speciality bread, by type, 2013-15
                                                        • Market Drivers

                                                          • Bread’s health credentials remain under scrutiny
                                                            • PM reports cutting out bread to lose weight
                                                              • Popularity of gluten avoidance affects bread
                                                                • SACN recommends starchy carbs and fibre
                                                                  • Pesticides attract headlines
                                                                    • Supermarket price war hits the prepacked sliced loaf
                                                                      • Competition from other products
                                                                        • Bread loses out on health at breakfast
                                                                          • Packed lunches under pressure
                                                                            • Free school lunches for 1.55 million children
                                                                              • Improving economy should benefit added-value formats
                                                                                • Figure 14: Trends in consumers’ current financial situation compared to a year ago, net of “better off” and “worse off”, July 2011-July 2015
                                                                            • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                                                              • Warburtons loses sales and reduces spend
                                                                                • Kingsmill suffers sales decline following delisting
                                                                                  • Sweet baked goods and speciality provide a boost
                                                                                    • Warburtons and Hovis lead on levels of trust and differentiation
                                                                                    • Brand Research

                                                                                      • What you need to know
                                                                                        • Brand map
                                                                                          • Figure 15: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, June 2015
                                                                                        • Key brand metrics
                                                                                          • Figure 16: Key metrics for selected brands, June 2015
                                                                                        • Brand attitudes: Warburtons is seen to offer consistently high quality
                                                                                          • Figure 17: Attitudes, by brand, June 2015
                                                                                        • Brand personality: Accessibility is key to Warburtons, Kingsmill and Hovis
                                                                                          • Figure 18: Brand personality – Macro image, June 2015
                                                                                        • Genius and New York Bakery Co stand apart from the other brands
                                                                                          • Figure 19: Brand personality – Micro image, June 2015
                                                                                        • Brand analysis
                                                                                          • Warburtons is seen to be moving forward by the majority
                                                                                            • Figure 20: User profile of Warburtons, June 2015
                                                                                          • New York Bakery Co attracts an affluent and urban user base
                                                                                            • Figure 21: User profile of New York Bakery Co, June 2015
                                                                                          • Hovis has the strongest reputation but is seen to be standing still
                                                                                            • Figure 22: User profile of Hovis, June 2015
                                                                                          • Kingsmill achieves the highest awareness levels
                                                                                            • Figure 23: User profile of Kingsmill, June 2015
                                                                                          • Genius stands out as being healthy but also bland
                                                                                            • Figure 24: User profile of Genius, June 2015
                                                                                        • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                          • Brand revamps from leading players
                                                                                            • Figure 25: UK new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by branded vs private label, 2011-15
                                                                                          • Grocers dominate NPD
                                                                                            • Figure 26: UK new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by top 10 companies, 2011-15
                                                                                          • Gluten-free launches leap ahead in 2014
                                                                                            • Figure 27: New product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by the gluten-free claim, 2011-15
                                                                                          • Shaped baked goods target parents and seasonal occasions
                                                                                            • Thin and smaller formats look to snack occasions
                                                                                              • Efforts to make bread a ‘positive health choice’
                                                                                                • Flavour innovation adds excitement to the category
                                                                                                • Market Share

                                                                                                  • Warburtons leads prepacked bread
                                                                                                    • Kingsmill suffers a heavy slump
                                                                                                      • Figure 28: Leading brands in the UK prepacked bread retail market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                                    • Warburtons the only brand to see a decline in sweet baked goods
                                                                                                      • Figure 29: Leading brands in the UK sweet baked goods retail market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                                    • Investment in speciality lines boosts brand sales
                                                                                                      • Figure 30: Leading brands in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                                  • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                    • Bread leads in adspend, pancake and hot cross buns gaining
                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on bread and baked goods, by product category, 2012-15
                                                                                                    • Adspend depends on leading manufacturers
                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on bread and baked goods, by advertiser, top 10, 2012-15
                                                                                                    • Warburtons changes tack in marketing
                                                                                                      • Kingsmill continues with the ‘Kingsmill family’
                                                                                                        • Hovis plans to step up activity in late 2015
                                                                                                          • New York Bakery Co looks to authenticity
                                                                                                            • Federation of Bakers ‘hearts’ bread
                                                                                                              • Genius goes online
                                                                                                              • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                • Purchasing of packaged sliced loaves stands at 80%
                                                                                                                  • Sliced loaves remain popular for breakfast/lunch
                                                                                                                    • Health concerns curb bread intake of 31% of infrequent users
                                                                                                                      • Shoppers welcome brands to ISB
                                                                                                                      • Purchase and Usage of Bread and Baked Goods

                                                                                                                        • The packaged sliced loaf sees declining usage
                                                                                                                          • Figure 33: Types of bread bought in the past three months, 2013-15
                                                                                                                        • Crumpets remain the most popular within baked goods
                                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Types of baked goods bought in the past three months, June 2013, May 2014 and May 2015
                                                                                                                        • Daily usage of packaged sliced bread and baked goods drops
                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Frequency of eating bread and baked goods in the past three months, June 2013, May 2014 and May 2015
                                                                                                                      • Bread and Baked Goods Occasions

                                                                                                                        • Sliced bread remains an everyday option
                                                                                                                          • Figure 36: Occasions when bread/baked goods are eaten, by type of product, May 2015
                                                                                                                        • Baked goods are most popular as a treat/snack
                                                                                                                          • Associations with meals drive usage of other types of bread such as baguettes
                                                                                                                          • Barriers to Eating Packaged Sliced Bread More Often

                                                                                                                            • Health concerns curb bread intake of 31% of infrequent users
                                                                                                                              • Role for smaller formats, education and low-carb bread
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Reasons for not eating packaged sliced bread more often, May 2015
                                                                                                                                • Wheat/gluten avoidance curbs bread intake
                                                                                                                                  • One in four see bread as processed
                                                                                                                                  • Interest in Bread/Bread Product Concepts

                                                                                                                                    • Shoppers welcome brands to ISB
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Interest in bread/bread product concepts, May 2015
                                                                                                                                    • Superfood ingredients offer positive nutrition
                                                                                                                                      • Packaging solutions look to cater to consumer needs
                                                                                                                                        • On-the-go and smaller packs appeal to three in 10
                                                                                                                                          • NPD fails to cater to interest in high-protein bread/baked products
                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                              • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                • Other definitions
                                                                                                                                                  • Bread
                                                                                                                                                    • Sweet baked goods
                                                                                                                                                      • Speciality bread
                                                                                                                                                        • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast and Segment Performance

                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK bread and baked goods market, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK bread and baked goods market, by volume, 2015-20

                                                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                        To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                        Bread and Baked Goods - UK - October 2015

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