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Bread and Baked Goods - UK - October 2017

“In terms of health, the very strong performance of the ‘bread with bits’ segment provides cause for optimism, with these products aligning well with both positive nutrition and ‘foodie’ trends. Health-boosting herbs and spices can also play in both these spaces and – as yet largely unexplored in this market - offer lots of potential for development.”
– Emma Clifford, Associate Director, Food and Drink

This Report looks at the following areas:

  • Inspiration would be welcomed to make bread-based packed lunches more interesting
  • More support for British farmers is wanted in bread - the milk market can offer cues
  • Herbs and spices can boost health credentials and excitement

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
        • Bread
          • Speciality bread
            • Sweet baked goods
            • Executive Summary

                • The market
                  • Rising prices stem the rate of decline in value sales
                    • Volume sales fall 2% year on year in 2017
                      • Figure 1: UK retail value sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2012-22
                    • Volume sales set to stabilise over 2017-22
                      • Market factors
                        • Mounting competition from foodservice…
                          • …but this trend could be reversed
                            • Frugality can favour bread/baked goods
                              • Companies and brands
                                • Warburtons loses share in pre-packed bread
                                  • A turnaround in fortunes for Hovis
                                    • Jacksons is the rising star
                                      • More NPD activity in high-protein bread
                                        • Adspend slumps 41% year on year in 2016
                                          • The consumer
                                            • Near universal purchasing of bread endures
                                              • Families, people who are struggling financially and over-55s are biggest users of sliced bread
                                                • Figure 2: Types of bread bought in the past month, August 2017
                                                • Figure 3: Types of baked goods bought in the past month, August 2017
                                                • Figure 4: Frequency of eating bread and baked goods in the past month, August 2017
                                              • Sliced bread relies heavily on breakfast and lunchtime usage
                                                • Surprisingly low usage of non-sliced bread with meals
                                                  • Baked goods are most commonly eaten between meals
                                                    • Figure 5: Usage occasions for bread and baked goods, August 2017
                                                  • More support for British farmers would be welcomed
                                                    • The appeal of herbs and spices can be two-fold
                                                      • Figure 6: Innovation in bread and baked goods that consumers would like to see more of, August 2017
                                                    • Pressure on real incomes can support more lunchtime usage of bread
                                                      • Figure 7: Attitudes towards bread and baked goods, August 2017
                                                    • What we think
                                                    • Issues and Insights

                                                      • Inspiration would be welcomed to make bread-based packed lunches more interesting
                                                        • The facts
                                                          • The implications
                                                            • More support for British farmers is wanted in bread - the milk market can offer cues
                                                              • The facts
                                                                • The implications
                                                                  • Herbs and spices can boost health credentials and excitement
                                                                    • The facts
                                                                      • The implications
                                                                      • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                                        • Rising prices stem the rate of decline in value sales
                                                                          • Volume sales fall 2% year on year in 2017
                                                                            • Volume sales set to stabilise over 2017-22
                                                                              • Growth in the appetite for craft bread and baked goods
                                                                                • Pre-packed bread returns to value growth as price rises set in
                                                                                  • White bread is the nation’s favourite, with volume sales stabilising
                                                                                    • Bread with bits enjoys double-digit value growth in 2017
                                                                                      • Mounting competition from foodservice…
                                                                                        • …but this trend could be reversed
                                                                                          • Frugality can favour bread/baked goods
                                                                                          • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                            • Rising prices stem the rate of decline in value sales
                                                                                              • Volume sales fall 2% year on year in 2017
                                                                                                • Figure 8: UK retail value and volume sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2012-22
                                                                                              • Volume sales set to stabilise over 2017-22
                                                                                                • Figure 9: UK retail volume sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2012-22
                                                                                                • Figure 10: UK retail value sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2012-22
                                                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                                                              • Market Segmentation

                                                                                                • Growth in the appetite for craft bread and baked goods
                                                                                                  • Figure 11: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods, by segment, 2016-17
                                                                                                • Pre-packed bread returns to value growth as price rises set in
                                                                                                  • White bread is the nation’s favourite, with volume sales stabilising
                                                                                                    • Bread with bits enjoys double-digit value growth in 2017
                                                                                                      • Figure 12: UK retail value and volume sales of pre-packed bread, by types, 2015-17
                                                                                                    • Chilled garlic bread and wraps grow share in speciality bread
                                                                                                      • Dramatic losses for sandwich thins
                                                                                                        • Figure 13: UK retail value sales of rolls and speciality bread, by types, 2015-17
                                                                                                      • Sales of sweet baked goods estimated to fall 4% in 2017
                                                                                                        • Figure 14: UK retail value sales of pre-packed sweet baked goods, by types, 2015-17
                                                                                                    • Market Drivers

                                                                                                      • Mounting competition from foodservice
                                                                                                        • Figure 15: Frequency of purchasing lunch out of home, July 2017
                                                                                                      • The income squeeze impacts consumer spending
                                                                                                        • Figure 16: Annual percentage change in CPI and AWE (regular pay), monthly basis, January 2012-June 2017
                                                                                                      • Frugality can favour bread/baked goods
                                                                                                        • A shift away from foodservice is likely…
                                                                                                          • …helping to spark a lunchbox effect
                                                                                                            • Rising costs put pressure on manufacturers
                                                                                                              • No end to robust growth in free-from
                                                                                                                • Concerns over a lack of fibre
                                                                                                                • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                  • Warburtons loses share in pre-packed bread
                                                                                                                    • A turnaround in fortunes for Hovis
                                                                                                                      • Jacksons is the rising star
                                                                                                                        • Adspend slumps 41% year on year in 2016
                                                                                                                          • More NPD activity in high-protein bread
                                                                                                                          • Market Share

                                                                                                                            • Warburtons loses share in pre-packed bread
                                                                                                                              • A lacklustre performance from Kingsmill despite rebrand
                                                                                                                                • A turnaround in fortunes for Hovis
                                                                                                                                  • Own-label steadily steals share
                                                                                                                                    • Jacksons is the rising star
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 17: Leading brands in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15-2016/17
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 18: Leading companies in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15-2016/17
                                                                                                                                    • Old El Paso and Pataks are success stories in speciality bread
                                                                                                                                      • Warburtons and New York Bakery retain top positions
                                                                                                                                        • The specialist free-from brands battle it out
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 19: Leading brands in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2014/15-2016/17
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 20: Leading companies in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2014/15-2016/17
                                                                                                                                        • Warburtons extends lead in sweet baked goods
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 21: Leading brands in the UK sweet baked goods retail market, by value, 2014/15-2016/17
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 22: Leading manufacturers in the UK sweet baked goods retail market, by value, 2014/15-2016/17
                                                                                                                                      • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                        • Own-label dominates NPD activity in 2017
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 23: New product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by top 10 companies, 2013-17
                                                                                                                                        • A rise in high-fibre claims
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 24: New product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by selected claims, 2013-17
                                                                                                                                        • More activity in high-protein bread
                                                                                                                                          • Hovis partners high-protein with low-carb in latest launch
                                                                                                                                            • Ancient grains and seeds are still a hotbed of activity
                                                                                                                                              • An uptick in free-from launches in 2016
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 25: New product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by L/N/R allergen and gluten-free claims, 2013-17
                                                                                                                                              • Lots of positive nutrition innovation in gluten-free
                                                                                                                                                • Gluten-free NPD in “foodie” territory
                                                                                                                                                  • A rise in innovation with artisan cues
                                                                                                                                                    • Most exciting innovation happening in flatbread
                                                                                                                                                      • Flavour NPD beginning to extend into other types of bread/baked goods
                                                                                                                                                        • Spices make their way beyond flatbread
                                                                                                                                                          • Bake at home products are well-suited for more exciting ingredients
                                                                                                                                                            • Kingsmill hopes to inject excitement into toast
                                                                                                                                                              • Toasties feature inbuilt ingredients
                                                                                                                                                                • Super Toasty loaf focuses on texture
                                                                                                                                                                  • Warburtons launches hot-serve Toastie Pockets
                                                                                                                                                                    • Bimbo unveils family-oriented baked snacks
                                                                                                                                                                      • New twists to seasonal baked goods
                                                                                                                                                                      • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                                                        • Adspend slumps 41% year on year in 2016
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 26: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread and baked goods, by product type, 2013-17
                                                                                                                                                                        • Warburtons is unrivalled as top spender, despite cutbacks
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 27: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread and baked goods, by advertiser, 2013-17
                                                                                                                                                                        • Morrisons jumps up the ranks to become biggest spending supermarket
                                                                                                                                                                          • Bread features in Tesco’s Food Love Stories campaign
                                                                                                                                                                            • New York Bakery unveils biggest ever advertising campaign
                                                                                                                                                                              • Genius invests in cinema advertising
                                                                                                                                                                                • Hovis looks to experiential advertising
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 28: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 29: Key metrics for selected brands, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand attitudes: Hovis and Warburtons have strong reputations
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 30: Attitudes, by brand, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand personality: New York Bakery Co stands out on the fun factor
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 31: Brand personality – Macro image, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Hovis is seen as the most traditional, wholesome and healthy brand
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Brand personality – Micro image, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Warburtons has the fun factor more than Hovis or Kingsmill
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 33: User profile of Warburtons, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Hovis has the most solid reputation
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: User profile of Hovis, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                      • New York Bakery Co enjoys a fun and vibrant brand image
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 35: User profile of New York Bakery Co, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brioche Pasquier stands out on indulgence
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 36: User profile of Brioche Pasquier, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Kingsmill has a weaker brand identity than its rivals
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 37: User profile of Kingsmill, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Roberts Bakery lacks brand engagement
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 38: User profile of Roberts Bakery, September 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Near universal purchasing of bread endures
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Families, people who are struggling financially and over-55s are biggest users of sliced bread
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Sliced bread relies heavily on breakfast and lunchtime usage
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Surprisingly low usage of non-sliced bread with meals
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Baked goods are most commonly eaten between meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                • More support for British farmers would be welcomed
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The appeal of herbs and spices can be two-fold
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Pressure on real incomes can support more lunchtime usage of bread
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Purchase and Usage of Bread and Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Near universal purchasing of bread
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Types of bread bought in the past month, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Over two thirds still eat sliced bread daily…
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • ...peaking among parents, large households, those struggling financially and over-55s
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Frequency of eating bread and baked goods in the past month, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Other types of bread are eaten by the majority
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • “Foodie” consumers are the core users of other types of bread
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Less regular usage of baked goods
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 41: Types of baked goods bought in the past month, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Consumers enjoy the variety of products in the bread aisle
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Repertoire of different types of bread and baked goods eaten in the past month. August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Usage Occasions for Bread and Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Sliced bread relies heavily on breakfast and lunchtime usage
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 43: Usage occasions for bread and baked goods, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Wholemeal bread ticks a lot of boxes for breakfast
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Competition from other products looks to be abating
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Pressure on real incomes can support more lunchtime usage of bread
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • More inspiration would be welcomed by many
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Surprisingly low usage of non-sliced bread with meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Reminders that meals can be improved by pairing with bread would be useful
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Baked goods are most commonly eaten between meals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Bread is rarely eaten as a snack
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Innovation in Bread and Baked Goods That Consumers Would Like to See More Of

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • More support for British farmers would be welcomed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Bread can take cues from the milk market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Innovation in bread and baked goods that consumers would like to see more of, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Regional provenance attracts interest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • A quarter of buyers want to see more global bread/baked goods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • The appeal of herbs and spices can be two-fold
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Attitudes towards Bread and Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Wholemeal bread is widely seen as a good source of fibre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Products need to go beyond high-fibre to stand out on health
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 45: Attitudes towards bread and baked goods, August 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Should bread be looking to pizza for inspiration?
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Flatbreads can provide an interesting alternative pizza base…
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …as can naan bread!
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Dough from ISBs has strong appeal to parents
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Other definitions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Bread
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Sweet baked goods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Speciality bread
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK bread and baked goods market, by value, 2017-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 47: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK bread and baked goods market, by volume, 2017-22
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Forecast methodology

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Bread and Baked Goods - UK - October 2017

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