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Bread and Bread Products - US - September 2014

“The US bread and bread products market is experiencing slow growth in 2014 and is expected to continue this pattern into 2019. Many consumers perceive bread as too high in carbohydrates and calories. Low-carb, low-calorie, and generally healthier breads (such as high fiber brands) are likely to help sales, as nearly half of consumers surveyed by Mintel say healthful eating motivates them to select the bread they buy most over the last six months.”
- Amy Kraushaar, US Category Manager, Food and Drink

This report answers the following questions:

  • How can brands overcome nutritional concerns?
  • How can brands attract Millennials?
  • Can brands encourage more snacking, appetizers?

 

Slow growth in the bread category is largely due to consumer concern about the health implications of eating too much bread; many feel bread is too high in carbohydrates and calories. Brands are challenged to provide a greater variety of products that feature BFY ingredients as well as flavor. For example, brands should strive to equate all-natural ingredients (cited by a third of respondents as a factor in product selection) with freshness and better flavor.
 
Insights:
  • Roughly a third of bread buyers say they are eating less bread because it is too high in carbohydrates and calories, and nearly two in 10 say it has too much sugar. Some 11% say bread lacks adequate nutrients.
  • Some 45% of buyers cite eating more healthfully as a reason for buying the breads they did buy most often in the last six months.
  • The high rate of adult obesity in the US likely factors into buyers’ decision to eat less bread.
  • While many brands offer BFY varieties such as whole grain, light, and high fiber, brands still have an opportunity to better reach those buyers who are eating less bread due to nutritional considerations.

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Abbreviations and terms
                • Abbreviations
                • Executive Summary

                  • Overview
                    • Slowly growing category
                      • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of bread and bread products, at current prices, 2009-19
                    • Key players
                        • Figure 2: MULO share of bread and bread products at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014
                      • The consumer
                        • Nearly eight in 10 report buying packaged, branded, sliced bread in last six months
                          • Figure 3: Bread purchases in the last six months, June 2014
                        • Nearly two thirds buy Hispanic breads; more than a third buy other nontraditional loaves
                          • Figure 4: Nontraditional loaves and ethnic bread purchases in the last six months, June 2014
                        • Some 45% cite healthier eating a reason for choosing bread they buy most often
                          • Figure 5: Reasons for selecting bread purchased most often in last six months, June 2014
                        • Health considerations factor into less bread consumption
                          • Figure 6: Reasons for eating bread less often, June 2014
                        • What we think
                        • Issues and Insights

                            • How can brands overcome nutritional concerns?
                              • Insight: Show how BFY ingredients taste good
                                • How can brands attract Millennials?
                                  • Insight: Nontraditional bread brands should target Millennials
                                    • Can brands encourage more snacking, appetizers?
                                      • Insight: Variety of shapes/sizes/styles; partnering with spread brands
                                      • Trend Application

                                          • Trend: Transumer
                                            • Trend: The Real Thing
                                              • Trend: Objectify
                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                • Key points
                                                  • Sales and forecast of bread and bread products
                                                    • Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread and bread products, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                    • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread and bread products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
                                                  • Fan chart forecast
                                                    • Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of bread and bread products, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                  • Health concerns lead to less frequent bread use
                                                    • Households with kids should be a focus for marketers
                                                      • Fan chart methodology
                                                      • Market Drivers

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Health considerations lead many to eat bread less often
                                                            • Figure 10: Reasons for eating bread less often, June 2014
                                                            • Figure 11: Bread purchases in the last six months, June 2014
                                                            • Figure 12: Nontraditional loaves and ethnic bread purchases in the last six months, June 2014
                                                          • Obesity epidemic likely factors into slow growth
                                                            • Figure 13: Percentage of men aged 20 or older who are obese, 2001-04, 2005-08 and 2009-12
                                                            • Figure 14: Percentage of women aged 20 or older who are obese, 2001-04, 2005-08 and 2009-12
                                                          • Presence of children factors into bread consumption
                                                            • Figure 15: Household croissant consumption, by presence of children in household, January 2013-March 2014
                                                        • Segment Performance

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Packaged bread products account for nearly two thirds of the category
                                                              • Sales of bread and bread products, by segment
                                                                • Figure 16: Total US retail sales of bread and bread products, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
                                                              • Sales and forecast of packaged bread and bread products
                                                                • Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged bread and bread products, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                              • Sales and forecast of in-store baked breads
                                                                • Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store baked breads, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                              • Sales and forecast of tortillas/taco shells
                                                                • Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortillas/taco shells, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                              • Sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread and bread products
                                                                • Figure 20: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen bread and bread products, at current prices, 2009-19
                                                            • Retail Channels

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Supermarkets comprise half of the category
                                                                  • Sales of bread and bread products, by channel
                                                                    • Figure 21: Total US retail sales of bread and bread products, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
                                                                    • Figure 22: US supermarket sales of bread and bread products, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                                    • Figure 23: Bread purchases by purchase location (by any more or same amount of purchases), by gender, June 2014
                                                                    • Figure 24: US other channel sales of bread and bread products, at current prices, 2009-14
                                                                • Leading Companies

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Grupo Bimbo leads MULO category with $4.4 billion in sales and a 26.4% share
                                                                      • Other companies account for smaller share but manage growth
                                                                        • MULO sales of bread and bread products
                                                                          • Figure 25: MULO sales of bread and bread products at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                      • Brand Share – Fresh Loaf Bread

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Nature’s Own leads among brands; Sara Lee declines 10.5%
                                                                            • Private label claims higher share than any single name brand
                                                                              • MULO sales of fresh loaf bread
                                                                                • Figure 26: MULO sales of fresh loaf bread at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                            • Brand Share – Fresh Rolls, Buns, and Croissants

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Oroweat gains 42.5% based on sales of Sandwich Thins
                                                                                  • MULO sales of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants
                                                                                    • Figure 27: MULO sales of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                • Brand Share – Tortillas and Taco Shells

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Gruma SA’s Mission and Guerrero brands lead segment
                                                                                      • MULO sales of tortillas and taco shells
                                                                                        • Figure 28: MULO sales of tortillas and taco shells at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                    • Brand Share – Bagels/Bialys

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Thomas’ grows 3.1% as other leading brands decline
                                                                                          • MULO sales of bagels/bialys
                                                                                            • Figure 29: MULO sales of bagels/bialys at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                        • Brand Share – English Muffins

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Thomas’ also leads the MULO English muffins segment
                                                                                              • MULO sales of English muffins
                                                                                                • Figure 30: MULO sales of English muffins at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                            • Brand Share – Frozen and Refrigerated Bread

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Lender’s leads with 41.8% share
                                                                                                  • MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated bread
                                                                                                    • Figure 31: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated bread at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                  • Low/no/reduced trans fat, no additives/preservatives lead claims
                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Top 10 bread and bread product claims, by percentage of total claims, 2009-13
                                                                                                  • Nontraditional and ethnic loaves gain popularity
                                                                                                    • BFY attributes cater to demand for healthier foods
                                                                                                      • Expanding palates mean wider range of flavors
                                                                                                      • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                        • Overview of the brand landscape
                                                                                                          • Theme: Nutrition
                                                                                                            • Brownberry
                                                                                                              • Brownberry TV ad
                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Brownberry Bread television ad, 2013
                                                                                                              • Nature’s Own
                                                                                                                • Pepperidge Farm
                                                                                                                • Bread Purchases

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Eight in 10 bought packaged bread in last six months; men most likely
                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by gender, June 2014
                                                                                                                      • Purchases decline significantly among those aged 55 and older
                                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                      • Households with kids more likely to purchase the same amount/more often
                                                                                                                        • Figure 36: Bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by presence of children in household, June 2014
                                                                                                                      • Brands should show how their products can be eaten plain
                                                                                                                        • Figure 37: Bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by ways bread is eaten/used, June 2014
                                                                                                                      • Snack or appetizer positioning may encourage more to buy
                                                                                                                        • Figure 38: Bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by ways bread is eaten/used, June 2014
                                                                                                                      • New bread shapes are likely to spur sales
                                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by reasons for selecting one bread type over another, June 2014
                                                                                                                    • Nontraditional Loaves and Ethnic Bread Purchases

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Nearly two thirds are buying the same amount/more Hispanic breads
                                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Nontraditional loaves and ethnic bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by gender, June 2014
                                                                                                                          • Consumers aged 25-34 most likely to be buying same amount/more nontraditional loaves
                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Nontraditional loaves and ethnic bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                          • Households with kids more likely to buy same amount/more ethnic bread
                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Nontraditional loaves and ethnic bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by presence of children in household, June 2014
                                                                                                                          • Brands can show how their products are flavorful eaten plain
                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Nontraditional loaves and ethnic bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by ways bread is eaten/used, June 2014
                                                                                                                          • Positioning nontraditional loaves as appetizers could spur sales
                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Nontraditional loaves and ethnic bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by ways bread is eaten/used, June 2014
                                                                                                                          • New shapes may encourage more purchases
                                                                                                                            • Figure 45: Nontraditional loaves and ethnic bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by reasons for selecting one bread type over another, June 2014
                                                                                                                          • Focusing on different flour types or gluten-free may increase purchases
                                                                                                                            • Figure 46: Nontraditional loaves and ethnic bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by reasons for selecting one bread type over another, June 2014
                                                                                                                        • Reasons for Selecting Bread Purchased Most Often

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Healthier eating influences product selection
                                                                                                                                • Figure 47: Reasons for selecting bread purchased most often in last six months, by gender, June 2014
                                                                                                                            • Ways Bread Is Eaten/Used

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • Most eat bread as part of an everyday sandwich, heated, or with a spread
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Ways bread is eaten/used, by gender, June 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Those aged 18-34 most likely to eat bread as a snack, appetizer
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Ways bread is eaten/used, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                                • Reasons for Selecting One Bread Type Over Another

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • Nutritional attributes significantly influential in product selection
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Reasons for selecting one bread type over another, by gender, June 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Seniors most influenced by high fiber, packaging that keeps bread fresh
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 51: Reasons for selecting one bread type over another, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                                    • Reasons for Eating Bread Less Often

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Buyers significantly likely to eat less bread for health reasons
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: Reasons for eating bread less often, by gender, June 2014
                                                                                                                                        • Almost half of 18-24s say they do not think about buying bread
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: Reasons for eating bread less often, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                                      • Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Hispanics very likely to be buying the same amount or more of a range of bread types
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 54: Bread purchases (any more or same amount), by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Hispanics, Asians most apt to buy fresh-baked bread at a range of retailers
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 55: Bread purchases by purchase location (any more or same amount), by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Hispanics, Asians very apt to be buying the same amount/more of a range of nontraditional loaves
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 56: Nontraditional loaves and ethnic bread purchases compared to a year ago (any more or same amount), by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                          • Bread purchases and purchases vs a year ago
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Bread purchases (any more or same amount of purchases in last six months), by household income, June 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 58: Bread purchases (any more or same amount of purchases in last six months), by reasons for selecting one bread type over another, June 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 59: Bread purchases (any more or same amount of purchases in last six months), by reasons for selecting one bread type over another, June 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Nontraditional loaves and ethnic bread purchases
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 60: Nontraditional loaves and ethnic bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by household income, June 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 61: Nontraditional loaves and ethnic bread purchases (any more or same amount in last six months), by reasons for selecting one bread type over another, June 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Reasons for selecting bread purchased most often
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 62: Reasons for selecting bread purchased most often in last six months, by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 63: Reasons for selecting bread purchased most often in last six months, by household income, June 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Ways bread is eaten/used
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 64: Ways bread is eaten/used, by household income, June 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 65: Ways bread is eaten/used, by presence of children in household, June 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Reasons for selecting one bread type over another
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 66: Reasons for selecting one bread type over another, by household income, June 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Reasons for buying bread less often
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 67: Reasons for eating bread less often, by household income, June 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 68: Reasons for eating bread less often, by presence of children in household, June 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Race and Hispanic origin
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 69: Reasons for selecting bread purchased most often in last six months, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 70: Ways bread is eaten/used, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 71: Reasons for selecting one bread type over another, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 72: Reasons for eating bread less often, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
                                                                                                                                          • Where fresh-baked bread is purchased
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 73: Bread purchases by purchase location (by any more or same amount of purchases), by gender, June 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 74: Bread purchases by purchase location (by any more or same amount of purchases), by age, June 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 75: Bread purchases by purchase location (by any more or same amount of purchases), by household income, June 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 76: Bread purchases by purchase location (by any more or same amount of purchases), by presence of children in household, June 2014
                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions

                                                                                                                                            • Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                              • Campbell Soup Company
                                                                                                                                              • Family Dollar Stores, Inc
                                                                                                                                              • Flowers Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                              • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                              • Gruma S.A. de C.V.
                                                                                                                                              • Grupo Bimbo S.A.
                                                                                                                                              • Interstate Bakeries Corporation
                                                                                                                                              • Martin's Famous Pastry Shoppe, Inc
                                                                                                                                              • Mission Foods (USA)
                                                                                                                                              • Ole Mexican Foods, Inc.
                                                                                                                                              • Pepperidge Farm Inc.
                                                                                                                                              • Sara Lee Corporation
                                                                                                                                              • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                                                                              Bread and Bread Products - US - September 2014

                                                                                                                                              £3,277.28 (Excl.Tax)