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Bread - Ireland - April 2016

“The bread market has enjoyed growth between 2014 and 2015, but deep discounting in the packaged bread sector of the market will inhibit future growth. However, with growing consumer confidence seeing more consumers splashing out on morning goods and specialist breads, this will help to sustain value growth.”
– Brian O’Connor, Senior Consumer Analyst

With price competition between discounters and traditional supermarkets continuing to increase, this has driven down the cost of bread products to consumers; however, the value of the market is expected to continue to grow in 2016 with improved usage of speciality bread and morning goods among NI and RoI consumers.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Issues covered in this report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Figure 1: Estimated value of the total bread and bread products market, by segment, NI and RoI, 2014 and 2015
          • Forecast
            • Figure 2: Indexed estimated value of the total bread/bread products market, NI and RoI, 2010-21
          • Market factors
            • Costs of bread and baked goods fall
              • One in five RoI consumers bake at home
                • Authenticity and artisan trend helping to drive growth
                  • Room for innovation in salt-free alternatives
                    • The consumer
                      • Sliced loaves most popular pre-packaged options
                        • Figure 3: Types of pre-packaged bread bought in the last three months, NI and RoI, February 2016
                        • Figure 4: Types of bread bought from in-store bakeries/traditional bakeries in the last three months, NI and RoI, February 2016
                      • Pancakes and scones favoured baked goods
                        • Figure 5: Types of pre-packaged baked goods bought in the last three months, NI and RoI, February 2016
                        • Figure 6: Types of baked goods bought from in-store bakeries/traditional bakeries in the last three months, NI and RoI, February 2016
                      • Irish consumers want fresh packaging
                        • Figure 7: Types of bread Irish consumers are interested in trying, NI and RoI, January 2016
                      • Salt and sugar key concerns for Irish consumers
                        • Figure 8: Agreement with statements relating to bread and baked products, NI and RoI, February 2016
                    • The Market – What You Need to Know

                      • Slow but steady growth in bread market
                        • Bread and baked good prices fall
                          • Baking at home remains popular
                            • Artisan trend helping to boost speciality bread market
                              • Salt levels a growing concern
                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                  • Bread market value improves despite falling consumer prices
                                    • Figure 9: Estimated value of the total bread/bread products market, NI and RoI, 2010-21
                                  • Growth in morning goods while pre-packaged bread value declines
                                    • Figure 10: Estimated value of the total bread and bread products market, by segment, NI and RoI, 2014 and 2015
                                  • Speciality bread sales grow
                                    • Figure 11: Estimated value of the speciality bread segment, NI and RoI, 2014 and 2015
                                    • Figure 12: Indexed speciality food sales versus all grocery sales, by value, IoI, NI and RoI, 2010-20
                                • Market Drivers

                                  • Bread prices decline
                                    • Figure 13: Consumer Price Indices of bread and other bakery products, RoI, March 2011-March 2016
                                    • Figure 14: Consumer Price Indices of cereal bread and other bakery products, UK (including NI), April 2011-February 2016
                                    • Figure 15: Types of food and drink grocery products bought at Aldi and Lidl in the last three months, NI and RoI, September 2015
                                  • RoI consumers more likely to bake from scratch compared to GB
                                    • Figure 16: How often consumers bake from scratch at home, RoI and GB, 2011 and 2015
                                  • The drive for authenticity and naturalness boosting artisan bread usage
                                    • Figure 17: Top five specialist/artisan food and drink retailers that consumers have shopped at in the last three months, NI and RoI, March 2015
                                  • Salt levels in bread a concern
                                    • Three quarters want less salt
                                      • Figure 18: Agreement with the statement ‘Companies should do more to reduce the salt content in bread/baked goods ’, NI and RoI, January 2016
                                      • Figure 19: New bread products launched claiming to be low in sodium/salt, UK and Ireland, 2007-15
                                  • Companies and Innovations – What You Need to Know

                                    • Allied Bakeries set to increase pancake production
                                      • Genius Foods reformulates bread with vitamins and minerals
                                        • Pat the Baker acquires Irish Pride assets
                                          • Premier Foods partners with Paul Hollywood
                                            • Tesco and Asda pioneer private-label launches
                                              • Manufacturers use ancient grains
                                                • Thinner and smaller formats target snacking occasions
                                                • Who’s Innovating?

                                                  • Private label regains share in NPD
                                                    • Figure 20: Number of new product launches in the bread market, by private label vs. branded, UK and Ireland, 2011-15
                                                  • Vegetarian remains top claim
                                                    • Figure 21: Top five claims on new product launches in the bread market, UK and Ireland, 2011-16
                                                  • Smaller formats tap into snack occasions
                                                  • Companies and Brands

                                                      • Allied Bakeries
                                                        • Key facts
                                                          • Product range
                                                            • Brand NPD
                                                              • Recent developments
                                                                • Aryzta
                                                                  • Key facts
                                                                    • Product range
                                                                      • Recent developments
                                                                        • BFree
                                                                          • Key facts
                                                                            • Product portfolio
                                                                              • Brand NPD
                                                                                • Recent developments
                                                                                  • Genesis Crafty
                                                                                    • Key facts
                                                                                      • Product portfolio
                                                                                        • Recent developments
                                                                                          • Genius Foods
                                                                                            • Key facts
                                                                                              • Product portfolio
                                                                                                • Brand NPD
                                                                                                  • Recent developments
                                                                                                    • WHW Bakeries (Irish Pride)
                                                                                                      • Key facts
                                                                                                        • Product portfolio
                                                                                                          • Brand NPD
                                                                                                            • Recent developments
                                                                                                              • Irwin’s Bakery
                                                                                                                • Key facts
                                                                                                                  • Product portfolio
                                                                                                                    • Brand NPD
                                                                                                                      • Recent developments
                                                                                                                        • Joseph Brennan Bakeries
                                                                                                                          • Key facts
                                                                                                                            • Product portfolio
                                                                                                                              • Brand NPD
                                                                                                                                • Recent developments
                                                                                                                                  • Pat the Baker
                                                                                                                                    • Key facts
                                                                                                                                      • Product portfolio
                                                                                                                                        • Brand NPD
                                                                                                                                          • Recent developments
                                                                                                                                            • Premier Foods
                                                                                                                                              • Key facts
                                                                                                                                                • Product portfolio
                                                                                                                                                  • Brand NPD
                                                                                                                                                    • Recent developments
                                                                                                                                                      • Kelkin
                                                                                                                                                        • Key facts
                                                                                                                                                          • Product portfolio
                                                                                                                                                            • Brand NPD
                                                                                                                                                              • Udi’s
                                                                                                                                                                • Key facts
                                                                                                                                                                  • Product portfolio
                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand NPD
                                                                                                                                                                      • Recent developments
                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                                        • Sliced white loaf and wraps top used pre-packaged bread
                                                                                                                                                                          • Pancakes and scones top pre-packaged baked goods
                                                                                                                                                                            • Irish consumers want fresh packaging
                                                                                                                                                                              • Strong demand for more action on salt
                                                                                                                                                                              • The Consumer – Usage of Bread Products

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Sliced white loaf most used type of pre-packaged bread
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 22: Types of pre-packaged bread bought in the last three months, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                  • White bread comes out on top of wholemeal and granary bread
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 23: Types of sliced pre-packaged bread bought in the last three months, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 24: Types of sliced pre-packaged bread bought in the last three months, by age, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Wraps see strong usage
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 25: Consumers who bought pre-packaged wraps, by gender and social class, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                  • NI consumers have a greater appetite for buns/rolls/baps
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Consumers who have bought pre-packaged savoury buns/rolls/baps vs those bought via in-store/traditional bakeries, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Baguettes top type of fresh bread from bakeries
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 27: Types of bread bought from in-store bakeries/traditional bakeries in the last three months, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cost and shelf life holding back higher usage of fresh baked bread
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Fresh baguettes show strongest usage among
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 28: Consumers who bought baguettes from in-store bakeries/traditional bakeries in the last three months, by age, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Traditional Irish breads see lower usage via in-store/traditional bakeries
                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Usage of Baked Goods

                                                                                                                                                                                          • NI consumers twice as likely to have bought pre-packaged pancakes
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 29: Types of pre-packaged baked goods bought in the last three months, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Men more likely to buy pre-packaged scones
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 30: Consumers who bought pre-packaged scones, by gender, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Scones and pastries top fresh baked goods
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 31: Types of bread bought from in-store bakeries/traditional bakeries in the last three months, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Pastries most likely to be bought by women in RoI
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 32: Consumers who bought pastries from in-store bakeries/traditional bakeries, by gender and social class, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Consumer – Interest in Bread Innovations

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Keeping bread fresh for longer a priority
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 33: Types of bread Irish consumers are interested in trying, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 34: Interest in trying bread in packaging that keeps it fresher for longer, by age, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Ready-made bread dough appeals to women
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Interest in trying ready-made bread dough, by presence of children in household, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Women more interested in doughs
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Savoury bread rolls with baked-in fillings appeal to Millennials
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 36: Interest in trying savoury bread rolls with packed in fillings, by age, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Affluent consumers want more exotic types of bread
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 37: Interest in trying more exotic types of bread (eg Focaccia Ligure, Focaccia al Pomodoro), by social class, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Attitudes towards Bread

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Strong demand for more action on salt
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Agreement with statements relating to bread and baked products, NI and RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Salt a key issue to mature RoI consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 39: Agreement with the statement ‘Companies should do more to reduce the salt content in bread/baked goods ’, by age, NI and RoI, January 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Sugar content worrying to Irish consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 40: Agreement with statements relating to sugar in bread and baked goods, NI and RoI, January 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 41: Agreement with statements relating to sugar in bread and baked goods, by gender, NI and RoI, January 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Two thirds of Irish consumers prefer NI/RoI-branded bread
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer to buy Northern Ireland /Irish-branded packaged sliced bread (eg Brennans, Irwin’s)’, by gender, NI and RoI, January 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Market size rationale
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Data sources
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Consumer data sources
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Generational cohort definitions
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • NI Toluna data
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 43: Types of pre-packaged bread products bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 44: Types of pre-packaged bread products bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, NI, February 2016 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Types of pre-packaged bread products bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, NI, February 2016 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 46: Types of fresh bread products from in-store/traditional bakeries bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 47: Types of fresh bread products from in-store/traditional bakeries bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, NI, February 2016 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 48: Types of pre-packaged baked products bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 49: Types of pre-packaged baked products bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, NI, February 2016 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Types of fresh baked products from in-store/traditional bakeries bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: Types of fresh baked products from in-store/traditional bakeries bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, NI, February 2016 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 52: Types of bread products that consumers would be interested in trying, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Types of bread products that consumers would be interested in trying, by demographics, NI, February 2016 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: Agreement with the statement ‘Bread is not a good option for those trying to lose weight’, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 55: Agreement with the statement ‘Frozen/ready-to-bake breads/baked goods (eg baguettes) are just as good as buying bread/baked goods from a bakery fresh’, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Agreement with the statement ‘Sliced bread contains too many artificial preservatives’, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 57: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer to buy Northern Ireland /Irish-branded packaged sliced bread (eg Brennans, Irwin’s)’, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 58: Agreement with the statement ‘Companies should do more to reduce the salt content in bread/baked goods ’, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 59: Agreement with the statement ‘It’s easy to get bored with homemade sandwiches’, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Agreement with the statement ‘It is worthwhile buying bread to put in the freezer’, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Agreement with the statement ‘I am more likely to buy own-label breads or baked goods compared to 12 months ago’, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 62: Agreement with the statement ‘I’m concerned about the sugar content in bread’, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 63: Agreement with the statement ‘I’m concerned about the sugar content in baked goods’, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Agreement with the statement ‘I only buy pre-packaged breads when fresh options aren’t available’, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Agreement with the statement ‘I would like to be able to pre-order/reserve fresh bread to pick up in-store’, by demographics, NI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • RoI Toluna data
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Types of pre-packaged bread products bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Types of pre-packaged bread products bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, February 2016 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: Types of pre-packaged bread products bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, February 2016 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Types of fresh bread products from in-store/traditional bakeries bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Types of fresh bread products from in-store/traditional bakeries bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, February 2016 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Types of pre-packaged baked products bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 72: Types of pre-packaged baked products bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, February 2016 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 73: Types of fresh baked products from in-store/traditional bakeries bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 74: Types of fresh baked products from in-store/traditional bakeries bought by consumers in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, February 2016 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 75: Types of bread products that consumers would be interested in trying, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 76: Types of bread products that consumers would be interested in trying, by demographics, RoI, February 2016 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 77: Agreement with the statement ‘Bread is not a good option for those trying to lose weight’, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 78: Agreement with the statement ‘Frozen/ready-to-bake breads/baked goods (eg baguettes) are just as good as buying bread/baked goods from a bakery fresh’, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 79: Agreement with the statement ‘Sliced bread contains too many artificial preservatives’, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 80: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer to buy Northern Ireland /Irish-branded packaged sliced bread (eg Brennans, Irwin’s)’, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 81: Agreement with the statement ‘Companies should do more to reduce the salt content in bread/baked goods ’, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 82: Agreement with the statement ‘It’s easy to get bored with homemade sandwiches’, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 83: Agreement with the statement ‘It is worthwhile buying bread to put in the freezer’, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 84: Agreement with the statement ‘I am more likely to buy own-label breads or baked goods compared to 12 months ago’, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 85: Agreement with the statement ‘I’m concerned about the sugar content in bread’, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 86: Agreement with the statement ‘I’m concerned about the sugar content in baked goods’, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 87: Agreement with the statement ‘I only buy pre-packaged breads when fresh options aren’t available’, by demographics, RoI, February 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 88: Agreement with the statement ‘I would like to be able to pre-order/reserve fresh bread to pick up in-store’, by demographics, RoI, February 2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                          To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Bread - Ireland - April 2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                          £1,095.00 (Excl.Tax)