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The US Bread Market - September 2012

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the bread market in the U.S and addresses the following questions.

  • How have sales fluctuated in recent years and how are they likely to change between 2012 and 2017?
  • What types of products are driving growth for manufacturers?
  • What types of new products have manufacturers introduced in recent years?
  • Which bread and bread products tend to be most popular with consumers and why?
  • How much influence do nutrition-related attributes have on consumer decision-making when compared with taste and price?
  • Which consumer segments over-index on bread use and which were most likely to report an increase in spending within specific categories during the last year?

What's in the US bread market report?

For the purposes of this report, bread is defined as including the following: 

  • Fresh loaf, including white, brown, and whole-grain, which may be sliced or unsliced, wrapped or unwrapped
  • Fresh rolls, buns, and croissants
  • Tortillas, taco shells, and tostadas
  • Fresh bagels, bialys, and English muffins
  • Refrigerated or frozen bread, bagels/bialys, and English muffins. 

Baked goods such as muffins, scones, sticky buns, and sweet rolls are excluded, as are home baking products, such as flour, yeast, and bread mixes and cake mixes. Tortilla chips and tostada chips are also excluded.

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What's included

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising creative
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                    • Terms
                    • Executive Summary

                        • The market
                          • Sales growth remains flat after 2008 spike
                            • Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, in millions at current prices, 2007-12
                          • Fan chart forecast
                            • Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales and fan chart forecast of bread, at current prices, 2007-17
                          • Fresh loaf bread remains the dominant category
                            • Figure 3: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, segmented by type, in millions, 2010-12
                          • Market factors
                            • Health and wellness trend driving demand for BFY options
                              • Figure 4: Reasons for “watching diet” among the 52% doing so, October 2009-December 2010
                            • Low consumer confidence undermining growth
                              • Figure 5: Consumer confidence trends, 2007-12
                            • Companies, brands, and innovation
                              • Figure 6: FDMx sales of bread in the U.S., in millions, 2011 and 2012
                            • Group Bimbo realizes some gains with Mrs. Baird’s and Bimbo
                              • The consumer
                                • Buns and BFY options among most popular categories in the U.S.
                                  • Figure 7: Types of bread purchased in last year, May 2012
                                • Incidence of use and changes in spending
                                  • Figure 8: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, May 2012
                                • Taste and texture can trump price
                                  • Figure 9: Factors considered “very important” or “somewhat important” in bread purchase decision, May 2012
                                • What we think
                                • Issues in the Market

                                    • What types of products are likely to drive future gains?
                                      • Which attributes tend to have the most influence on consumers?
                                        • Which consumer segments tend to use the most bread?
                                        • Insights and Opportunities

                                          • Gluten-free products could drive significant gains for some manufacturers
                                            • Ethnic breads could drive growth
                                              • Work to create loyalty among parents and kids
                                              • Trend Applications

                                                  • Trend: Make it Mine
                                                    • Trend: Survival Skills
                                                      • 2015 Trend: Old Gold
                                                      • Market Size and Forecast

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Sales remain largely unchanged in 2012
                                                            • Niche markets offer growth opportunities
                                                              • Figure 10: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                              • Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
                                                            • Fan chart forecast
                                                                • Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales and fan chart forecast of bread, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                              • Walmart sales
                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Most “watching” their diet
                                                                    • Figure 13: Watching diet and reasons for doing so, by gender, October 2009-December 2010
                                                                    • Figure 14: Incidence of being overweight or obese in the U.S. among adults aged 18+, 2005-10
                                                                  • Growth of 25-34 segment will drive long-term demand
                                                                    • Figure 15: U.S. population, by age, 2006-16
                                                                  • Parents and kids a key segment for marketers
                                                                    • Figure 16: Households, by presence and ages of children, 2011
                                                                    • Figure 17: Households, by presence of children, 2001-11
                                                                  • Rapid growth of minority segments will drive demand
                                                                    • Figure 18: Bread, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2011-March 2012
                                                                    • Figure 19: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2006-16
                                                                  • Pricing a key consideration when targeting minorities
                                                                    • Figure 20: Median household income, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2010
                                                                  • Languishing recovery could undermine sales growth
                                                                    • Figure 21: Unemployment trends, 2007-12
                                                                    • Figure 22: Consumer confidence trends, 2007-12
                                                                  • 2012 summer drought likely to result in higher bread prices
                                                                  • Competitive Context

                                                                    • Restaurants could pose an important competitive threat in the future
                                                                      • Figure 23: Adjusted foodservice and drinking places sales, in millions, January 2008-July 2011
                                                                  • Segment Performance

                                                                    • Tortillas and refrigerated category growing faster than overall sales
                                                                      • Figure 24: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, segmented by type, 2010-12
                                                                  • Segment Performance—Fresh Loaf Bread

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Retail sales slightly above 2008 levels in current terms
                                                                        • Figure 25: Total U.S. retail sales of fresh loaf bread, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                                    • Segment Performance—Fresh Rolls, Buns, and Croissants

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Rolls, buns, and croissants growing slightly faster than overall market
                                                                          • Figure 26: Total U.S. retail sales of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                                      • Segment Performance—Tortillas

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Tortilla sales expected to increase slightly in 2012
                                                                            • Figure 27: Total U.S. retail sales of tortillas, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                                        • Segment Performance—In-store Baked Breads

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • 2012 sales expected to remain flat
                                                                              • Figure 28: Total U.S. retail sales of in-store baked breads, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                                          • Segment Performance—Fresh Bagels, Bialys, English Muffins

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Sales reflect general trend seen in other categories
                                                                                • Figure 29: Total U.S. retail sales of fresh bagels, bialys, and English muffins, at current prices, 2007-17
                                                                            • Segment Performance—Refrigerated/frozen Bread, Bagels, Bialys, and English Muffins

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Sales expected to increase considerably in 2012
                                                                                  • Figure 30: Total U.S. retail sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, bagels, bialys, and English muffins, at current prices, 2007-12
                                                                              • Retail Channels

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Most sales made in supermarkets
                                                                                    • Figure 31: Total U.S. retail sales of bread and bread products, by channel, 2010 and 2012
                                                                                    • Figure 32: Total U.S. retail sales of bread in supermarkets, at current prices, 2007-12
                                                                                    • Figure 33: Total U.S. retail sales of bread in other channels, at current prices, 2007-12
                                                                                  • A majority purchases all types of bread at grocery
                                                                                    • Figure 34: Outlets where bread is purchased, by bread type, May 2012
                                                                                • Retail Channels—Natural Supermarkets

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Insights
                                                                                      • Sales of bread in the natural channel
                                                                                        • Figure 35: Natural supermarket sales of bread, at current prices, 2009-11*
                                                                                        • Figure 36: Natural supermarket sales of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-11*
                                                                                      • Natural channel sales of bread by segment
                                                                                        • Figure 37: Natural supermarket sales of bread and bread products, by segment, 2009 and 2011*
                                                                                      • Natural channel sales of organic bread
                                                                                        • Figure 38: Natural supermarket sales of bread, organic vs. non-organic, 2009 and 2011*
                                                                                      • Brands of note
                                                                                        • Natural channel sales of gluten-free bread
                                                                                          • Figure 39: Natural supermarket sales of gluten-free bread, 2009 and 2011*
                                                                                          • Figure 40: Natural supermarket sales of bread loaves segment, by gluten free and organic, 2009 and 2011*
                                                                                      • Leading Companies

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Grupo Bimbo remains dominant
                                                                                            • Private label sales up 0.5% as others report losses
                                                                                                • Figure 41: FDMx sales of bread among leading manufacturers in the U.S., 2011 and 2012
                                                                                            • Brand Share—Fresh Loaf Bread

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Gains driven largely by brands with diverse offerings
                                                                                                  • Merita wins with BFY offering
                                                                                                    • Bimbo positioned to appeal to value-oriented shoppers
                                                                                                      • Figure 42: FDMx sales of fresh loaf bread, by leading companies, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                  • Brand Share—Fresh Rolls, Buns, and Croissants

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Ball Park drives some gains for Sara Lee
                                                                                                        • Martin’s realizes gains with bun offering
                                                                                                          • Sweet gains for King’s Hawaiian
                                                                                                            • Figure 43: FDMx sales of fresh rolls/buns/croissants, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                        • Brand Share—Tortillas

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Gruma S.A. makes some inroads with Carb Balance product
                                                                                                              • La Banderita drives gains for Ole Mexican with authentic offering
                                                                                                                • Figure 44: FDMx sales of tortillas, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                            • Brand Share—Bagels, Bialys, and English Muffins

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Thomas’ remains dominant, continues to grow with mainstream offerings
                                                                                                                  • Private label driving gains
                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: FDMx sales of bagels, bialys, and English muffins, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                                • Brand Share—Refrigerated/frozen Bread, Bagels, Bialys, and English Muffins

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Lancaster Colony Corp. posts gains with Sister Schubert’s
                                                                                                                      • Udi’s wins with gluten-free offering
                                                                                                                        • Whole-grain
                                                                                                                          • Figure 46: FDMx sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, bagels, bialys, and English muffins, rolling 52 weeks 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                                      • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Bimbo’s innovation slows considerably in 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: New bread and bread products launches among top 10 firms, 2007-12
                                                                                                                          • BFY claims often associated with new launches
                                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Top 10 claims most commonly associated with product launches, 2007-12
                                                                                                                          • Premium private label products help retailers drive gains
                                                                                                                            • BFY dessert breads could drive future gains
                                                                                                                            • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                                              • Overview of the brand landscape
                                                                                                                                • Sara Lee
                                                                                                                                  • Television advertising
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Sara Lee television ad, 2012
                                                                                                                                  • Website
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Sara Lee website, 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Sara Lee website, 2012
                                                                                                                                  • Mission Foods
                                                                                                                                    • Television advertising
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Mission Foods tortilla ad, 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Mission Foods tortilla ad, 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Website
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Mission Foods website, 2012
                                                                                                                                  • Incidence of Use and Changes in Spending

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • Young adults are a key segment for bread brands
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Bread, by age, January 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Heaviest users tend to come from low- and middle-income households
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Bread, by household income, January 2011-March 2012
                                                                                                                                      • More than one in four report spending more on whole-grain and wheat
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, May 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Buns, whole-grain, wheat are the most popular types of bread in the U.S.
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 58: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Young adults more likely to report increased spending across categories
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 59: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Households with kids more likely to report increased spending
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 60: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by presence of children in household, May 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by presence of children in household, May 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Brand Usage Trends

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Sara Lee usage trends up as Grupo Bimbo takes control of the brand
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 62: Bread, February 2007-March 2012
                                                                                                                                        • Use of Bimbo brand bagels trending up
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 63: Bagels, February 2007-March 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Grains, Sweetener, Calories, Fat, Local, Premium

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • A majority of shoppers are influenced by “whole-grain”
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 64: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by gender, May 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Few differences between age segments in demand for whole-grain
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 65: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Sweeteners and fat tend to be less influential than grain content
                                                                                                                                            • Local, organic, and reduced calorie more likely to drive purchase among 18-34s
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Influence of BFY Attributes vs. Price

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • “High in fiber” claims often drive purchase decisions
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 67: Influence of health and price-related attributes, May 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Price another key consideration, especially for young adults
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 68: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Low-sodium claims, vitamin fortification more important in lower-income households
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 69: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by household income, May 2012
                                                                                                                                            • Taste, Texture, and Brand vs. Price, Labels

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Taste, texture, brand, and nutritional labels especially important to women
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by gender, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Nutritional labeling particularly important to upper-income consumers
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Other factors that impact the purchase decision, by household income, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Taste perceptions less likely to be “very important” to young adults
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Price and texture tend to be more important to parents
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 73: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by presence of children in household, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 74: Other factors that impact the purchase decision, by gender, May 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Bread-related Attitudes—Taste and Quality

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                  • Most prefer taste of whole-grain; buy higher-quality breads
                                                                                                                                                    • Most like to experiment and try breads from other cultures
                                                                                                                                                      • Most report buying higher-quality breads
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 75: Taste and quality-related attitudes, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                      • Young adults more likely to experiment and try breads from other cultures
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 76: Taste and quality-related attitudes, by age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                      • Upper-income households more likely to experiment
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 77: Taste and quality-related attitudes, by household income, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                    • Bread-related attitudes—Health, Price, Shopping

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • Most think whole-grain breads and those high in fiber are healthier
                                                                                                                                                          • Many want coupons and tend to shop for discounts
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 78: Health, price, and shopping-related perceptions, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Women more likely to view whole-grain as “healthier than white bread”
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 79: Health, price, and shopping-related perceptions, by gender, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                        • Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                            • Hispanics somewhat more likely to report spending more on whole-grain
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 80: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Demand for flatbreads and gluten-free products high among Asians
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 81: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Minorities more likely than whites to frequently purchase BFY options
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 82: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Asians, blacks, and Hispanics more likely to report buying higher quality
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 83: Bread-related behavior and attitudes, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Custom Consumer Groups—Gender and Age

                                                                                                                                                            • Young men and women aged 55+ more likely to be influenced by fiber
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 84: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by gender and age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Young men more likely to be influenced by BFY attributes
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 85: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by gender and age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Young men and women both more likely to be influenced by low price
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 86: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by gender and age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • Young men somewhat more likely to report buying higher quality
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 87: Taste and quality-related attitudes and behaviors, by gender and age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                • IRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures

                                                                                                                                                                  • Fresh bread and rolls—U.S.
                                                                                                                                                                    • Overview of fresh bread and rolls
                                                                                                                                                                      • Fresh bread
                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—fresh bread
                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 88: Brand map, selected brands of fresh bread buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                            • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 89: Key purchase measures for the top brands of fresh bread, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                                            • All other fresh rolls/buns/croissants
                                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants
                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 90: Brand map, selected brands of all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 91: Key purchase measures for the top brands of all other fresh rolls/buns/croissants, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Bagels/bialys
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—bagels/bialys
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 92: Brand map, selected brands of bagels/bialys buying rate, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 93: Key purchase measures for the top brands of bagels/bialys, by household penetration, 2011*
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 94: Outlets where bread is purchased, by age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 95: Outlets where bread is purchased, by household income, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 96: Outlets where bread is purchased, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 97: Outlets where bread is purchased, by gender and age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 98: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by household income, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 99: Shifts in bread purchase behavior in last year, by household income, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 100: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by household income, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 101: Influence of bread attributes on purchase behavior, by household income, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 102: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by household income, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 103: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 104: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by household income, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 105: Health, price, and shopping-related perceptions, by age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 106: Health, price, and shopping-related perceptions, by household income, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 107: Bread usage behavior and attitudes (b), by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 108: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 109: Influence of health and price-related attributes, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 110: Influence of taste, texture, brand, and price on purchase decisions, by race/Hispanic origin, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 111: Outlets where bread is purchased, by gender and age, May 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Campbell Soup Company
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Flowers Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Grupo Bimbo S.A.
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Sara Lee Bakery Group
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Sara Lee Food & Beverage

                                                                                                                                                                                        The US Bread Market - September 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                        £3,277.28 (Excl.Tax)