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Breakfast Cereals - UK - August 2014

“While manufacturers have reformulated their cereal recipes over the years, only three in 10 users think cold breakfast cereals are healthier than they used to be. This may reflect companies being wary of a consumer backlash against any changes to the taste profile of their products.”

– Emma Clifford, Senior Food Analyst

This report covers the following issues:

  • Alternative sweeteners provide a route to overcoming negative perceptions of flavoured cereals in terms of their high sugar content
  • Innovation can attract more young people to the porridge market
  • Innovation in breakfast cereal packaging and formats can help to add value to the category

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: UK retail value sales of the total breakfast cereals market, 2009-19
            • Market factors
              • Busy lifestyles are shaping demand for breakfast products
                • Health concerns heightened by the high-profile sugar debate
                  • Demographic changes are set to impact the breakfast market
                    • Companies, brands and innovation
                      • Volume and value losses for Kellogg’s
                        • Figure 2: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the UK RTE breakfast cereals market, by value, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                      • Upsurge in hot cereals NPD in 2013
                        • An uptick in adspend in 2013
                          • The consumer
                            • Breakfast cereals enjoy high penetration
                              • Figure 3: Types of breakfast cereal eaten in the past six months, May 2014
                            • Porridge stands out on health grounds
                              • Figure 4: Attributes most commonly associated with breakfast cereals, May 2014
                              • Figure 5: Other attributes associated with breakfast cereals, May 2014
                            • Consumers are undecided about the healthiness of cold cereals
                              • Figure 6: Attitudes towards cold breakfast cereals, May 2014
                            • 45% of parents want cereals to please the whole family
                              • Figure 7: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, May 2014
                            • What we think
                            • Issues and Insights

                                • Alternative sweeteners provide a route to overcoming negative perceptions of flavoured cereals in terms of their high sugar content
                                  • The facts
                                    • The implications
                                      • Innovation can attract more young people to the porridge market
                                        • The facts
                                          • The implications
                                            • Innovation in breakfast cereal packaging and formats can help to add value to the category
                                              • The facts
                                                • The implications
                                                • Trend Application

                                                    • Trend: Mood to Order
                                                      • Trend: Make it Mine
                                                        • Mintel Futures: East Meets West
                                                        • Market Drivers

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Busy lifestyles are shaping the breakfast market…
                                                              • Figure 8: Consumers who ever eat breakfast out of home, by age and working status, April 2014
                                                            • …with strong demand for on-the-go options
                                                              • The sugar debate is likely to have damaged the appeal of flavoured cereals
                                                                • Ageing population set to hinder RTE cereals but to boost porridge
                                                                  • Figure 9: Forecast trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2014-19
                                                                • Growth in 25-34s to benefit cold cereals and portable formats
                                                                • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                  • Strengths
                                                                    • Weaknesses
                                                                    • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Upsurge in hot cereals NPD in 2013
                                                                          • Figure 10: New product development in the UK cereals market as a share of total food NPD, 2010-14
                                                                          • Figure 11: New product development in the UK cereals market, by category, 2010-14
                                                                        • Kellogg’s remains the leader in innovation
                                                                          • Figure 12: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top 10 companies in 2013, 2010-14
                                                                        • Limited innovation in low-sugar cereals
                                                                          • Figure 13: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top 10 claims in 2013, 2010-14
                                                                        • Growing availability of Bircher muesli
                                                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Value sales expected to slip in 2014
                                                                              • Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of the total breakfast cereals market, 2009-19
                                                                            • Forecast
                                                                              • Figure 15: UK retail value sales of the total breakfast cereals market, 2009-19
                                                                              • Figure 16: UK retail volume sales of the total breakfast cereals market, 2009-19
                                                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                            • Segment Performance

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Value sales of cold cereal forecast to fall 2% in 2014
                                                                                  • Figure 17: UK retail value and volume sales of RTE cereals, 2009-19
                                                                                • The hot cereals market loses momentum
                                                                                  • Figure 18: UK retail value and volume sales of hot cereals, 2009-19
                                                                              • Market Share

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Volume and value losses for Kellogg’s
                                                                                    • Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales in the UK RTE breakfast cereals market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                    • Figure 20: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the UK RTE breakfast cereals market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                  • Mornflake and Dorset buck the downward trend
                                                                                    • Oat So Simple is stable at the top
                                                                                      • Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales in the UK hot breakfast cereals market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                      • Figure 22: Leading manufacturers in the UK hot breakfast cereals market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                  • Companies and Products

                                                                                      • Figure 23: Selected leading companies in the breakfast cereals market in the UK and their brands, 2014
                                                                                    • Cereal Partners UK
                                                                                      • Background
                                                                                        • Product range and innovation
                                                                                          • Recent activity and promotion
                                                                                            • Dorset Cereals
                                                                                              • Background
                                                                                                • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                  • Recent activity and promotion
                                                                                                    • Jordans & Ryvita Company
                                                                                                      • Background
                                                                                                        • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                          • Recent activity and promotion
                                                                                                            • Kellogg’s
                                                                                                              • Background
                                                                                                                • Product range
                                                                                                                  • Innovation
                                                                                                                    • Recent activity and promotion – Special K
                                                                                                                      • Recent activity and promotion – Other brands
                                                                                                                        • PepsiCo
                                                                                                                          • Background
                                                                                                                            • Product range
                                                                                                                              • Innovation
                                                                                                                                • Recent activity and promotion
                                                                                                                                  • Weetabix
                                                                                                                                    • Background
                                                                                                                                      • Product range
                                                                                                                                        • Innovation
                                                                                                                                          • Recent activity and promotion
                                                                                                                                          • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • An uptick in adspend in 2013
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 24: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK breakfast cereals market, by segment, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                              • Kellogg’s captures half of adspend
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 25: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top 10 advertisers in 2013, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 26: Share of total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top 10 advertisers in 2013, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                              • Kellogg’s targets social media
                                                                                                                                                • Nestlé and Jordans step up adspend in 2013
                                                                                                                                                  • Debut TV ad campaign from Mornflake
                                                                                                                                                  • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                    • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 27: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the breakfast cereal sector, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                      • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                                                        • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Attitudes, by breakfast cereal brand, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                        • Brand personality
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Breakfast cereal brand personality – Macro image, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Breakfast cereal brand personality – Micro image, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                        • Brand experience
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Breakfast cereal brand usage, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Satisfaction with various breakfast cereal brands, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 33: Consideration of breakfast cereal brands, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Consumer perceptions of current breakfast cereal’ brand performance, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                        • Brand recommendation
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Recommendation of selected breakfast cereal brands, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Usage of Breakfast Cereals

                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                          • Breakfast cereals enjoy high penetration
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Types of breakfast cereal eaten in the past six months, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 37: Types of breakfast cereal eaten in the past six months, June 2013 and May 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Families are most likely to cold eat cereals
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 38: Types of cold breakfast cereal eaten in the past six months, by presence of children, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Porridge attracts over-45s
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 39: Consumers who have eaten porridge in the last six months, by gender and age, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                            • Cold cereals also enjoy the highest usage frequency
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 40: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals in the past six months, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Perceptions of Different Types of Breakfast Cereals

                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                              • Porridge stands out on health grounds…
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 41: Attributes most commonly associated with breakfast cereals, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 42: Other attributes associated with breakfast cereals, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                • …but also benefits from its fillingness
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Consumers who perceive porridge to be filling, contain natural ingredients and to provide long-lasting energy, by age, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Porridge falls down on convenience
                                                                                                                                                                    • Half of adults think flavoured cereals are too high in sugar
                                                                                                                                                                      • A poor image of naturalness may also be a concern
                                                                                                                                                                        • Cereals bars/breakfast biscuits score highest on convenience
                                                                                                                                                                        • The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cold Breakfast Cereals

                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                            • Consumers are undecided about the healthiness of cold cereals
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Attitudes towards cold breakfast cereals, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                              • Low levels of awareness of reformulations
                                                                                                                                                                                • Over-55s steer towards low-sugar cereals
                                                                                                                                                                                  • One in five are open to cold cereals with natural sweeteners
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Under-25s are most interested in satiation
                                                                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Breakfast Cereals

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                        • 45% of parents want cereals to please the whole family
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 45: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                          • One in three would like to see more resealable packaging
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Under-35s are most interested in on-the-go convenience
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Convenience proposition of cold cereals splits views
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Breakfast cereal drinks appeal to one in five under-25s
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: New product development in the UK cereals market, branded vs private label, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK breakfast cereals market, by value, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK breakfast cereals market, by volume, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Segment Performance

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK RTE breakfast cereals market, by value, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK RTE breakfast cereals market, by volume, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK hot cereals market, by value, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK hot cereals market, by value, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Brand usage, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Brand commitment, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 55: Brand momentum, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Brand diversity, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Brand satisfaction, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Brand recommendation, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Brand attitude, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Brand image – Macro image, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 61: Brand image – Micro image, June 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Usage of Breakfast Cereals

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 62: Types of breakfast cereal eaten in the past six months, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Most popular types of breakfast cereal eaten in the past six months, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 64: Next most popular types of breakfast cereal eaten in the past six months, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Repertoire of usage of breakfast cereals
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 65: Repertoire of types of breakfast cereal eaten in the past six months, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 66: Repertoire of types of breakfast cereal eaten in the past six months, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Frequency of eating breakfast cereals
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 67: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals in the past six months, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 68: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals in the past six months – Cereals, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 69: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals in the past six months – Cereals, by demographics, May 2014 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 70: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals in the past six months – Porridge/oats, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 71: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals in the past six months – Porridge/oats, by demographics, May 2014 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Perceptions of Different Types of Breakfast Cereals

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 72: Attributes associated with breakfast cereals, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 73: Most popular attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Plain cereal, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 74: Next most popular attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Plain cereal, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 75: Other attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Plain cereal, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 76: Most popular attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Flavoured cereal, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 77: Next most popular attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Flavoured cereal, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 78: Other attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Flavoured cereal, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 79: Most popular attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Porridge/oats, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 80: Next most popular attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Porridge/oats, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 81: Other attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Porridge/oats, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 82: Most popular attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Muesli/granola, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 83: Next most popular attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Muesli/granola, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 84: Other attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Muesli/granola, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 85: Most popular attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Cereal bars/breakfast biscuits, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 86: Next most popular attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Cereal bars/breakfast biscuits, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 87: Other attributes associated with breakfast cereals – Cereal bars/breakfast biscuits, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cold Breakfast Cereals

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 88: Attitudes towards cold breakfast cereals, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 89: Most popular attitudes towards cold breakfast cereals, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 90: Next most popular attitudes towards cold breakfast cereals, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 91: Other attitudes towards cold breakfast cereals, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Breakfast Cereals

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 92: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 93: Most popular attitudes towards breakfast cereals, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 94: Next most popular attitudes towards breakfast cereals, by demographics, May 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 95: Other attitudes towards breakfast cereals, by demographics, May 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Advertising Standards Authority
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Alton Towers
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Associated British Foods Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Cereal Partners Worldwide
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Dorset Cereals
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Doves Farm Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                • ITV plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Kallo Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Kellogg Company of GB Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Lion Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Mornflake Oats
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Nestlé UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ofcom
                                                                                                                                                                                                • PepsiCo Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Quaker
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Ryvita Company Ltd (The)
                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Woodland Trust
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Thorpe Park
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Walt Disney Company, The
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Weetabix Ltd.
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Whole Earth Foods

                                                                                                                                                                                                Breakfast Cereals - UK - August 2014

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