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Breakfast Cereals - UK - August 2016

“RTE cereals have suffered from the negative media focus on sugar and competition from other products for the breakfast occasion. Given strong consumer interest, launches tapping into current healthy eating trends like ‘positive nutrition’ show potential going forward. Further development in low sugar should help brands to stand out in a crowded market.”
– Anita Winther, Research Analyst

This report examines the following issues:

  • Low sugar continues to warrant focus – control appeals to users
  • ‘Positive nutrition’ resonates with consumers – natural has an edge over fortified
  • Opportunities are ripe for high-protein cereals

This Report examines the UK retail market for breakfast cereals and excludes sales through foodservice channels.

For the purposes of this Report, breakfast cereals are segmented into RTE cereals and hot cereal products. The former comprises any cereals that are served without heating them, such as Corn Flakes or muesli and include ready-to-serve snack packs such as Rumblers and Kellogg’s To Go. The hot cereal segment consists of porridge, oatmeal and instant hot oat products.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Values and volumes continue to decline in 2015
              • Value growth predicted for the future
                • Figure 1: UK retail sales of breakfast cereals, by value, 2011-21
              • RTE cereals continue to struggle
                • Hot cereals’ growth grinds to a halt
                  • Sugar remains on the agenda
                    • Competition for the breakfast occasion
                      • Companies and brands
                        • Market leader Kellogg’s continues to see falling RTE cereal sales
                          • Figure 2: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by value, 2015/16*
                        • Quaker continues to dominate hot cereals
                          • Figure 3: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK hot cereals market, by value, 2015/16*
                        • Cereal launches hit four-year high in 2015
                          • Kellogg’s and Quaker Oats target wellness trend with positive nutrition
                            • Protein trend gathers momentum, low/no/reduced sugar remains niche
                              • Advertising spend plateaus as focus turns to positive nutrition
                                • Weetabix enjoys the highest brand commitment
                                  • The consumer
                                    • RTE cereals are eaten by 83%
                                      • Figure 4: Usage of breakfast cereals, by type, June 2016
                                    • Breakfast continues to be the main occasion for eating cereals
                                      • High fibre is a key factor
                                        • Figure 5: Nutritional factors deemed important when buying breakfast cereals, June 2016
                                      • Strong associations between fibre and digestive health
                                        • Figure 6: Behaviours relating to breakfast cereals, June 2016
                                      • ‘Positive nutrition’ resonates
                                        • Figure 7: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, June 2016
                                      • What we think
                                      • Issues and Insights

                                        • Low sugar continues to warrant focus – control appeals to users
                                          • The facts
                                            • The implications
                                              • ‘Positive nutrition’ resonates with consumers – natural has an edge over fortified
                                                • The facts
                                                  • The implications
                                                    • Opportunities are ripe for high-protein cereals
                                                      • The facts
                                                        • The implications
                                                        • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                          • Values and volumes continue to decline in 2015
                                                            • Value growth predicted for the future
                                                              • RTE cereals continue to struggle
                                                                • Inflation to prop up RTE value sales
                                                                  • Hot cereals’ growth grinds to a halt
                                                                    • Growth expected to return to hot cereals
                                                                      • Sugar remains on the agenda
                                                                        • Competition for the breakfast occasion
                                                                        • Market Size, Forecast and Segmentation

                                                                          • Values and volumes continue to decline in 2015
                                                                            • Figure 8: UK retail sales of breakfast cereals, by value and volume, 2011-21
                                                                          • Value growth predicted for the future
                                                                            • Figure 9: UK retail sales of breakfast cereals, by value, 2011-21
                                                                            • Figure 10: UK retail sales of breakfast cereals, by volume, 2011-21
                                                                          • RTE cereals continue to struggle
                                                                            • Inflation to prop up value sales
                                                                              • Figure 11: UK retail sales of RTE cereals, by value and volume, 2011-21
                                                                              • Figure 12: UK retail sales of RTE cereals, by value, 2011-21
                                                                              • Figure 13: UK retail sales of RTE cereals, by volume, 2011-21
                                                                            • Hot cereals’ growth grinds to a halt
                                                                              • Growth expected to return
                                                                                • Figure 14: UK retail sales of hot cereals, by value and volume, 2011-21
                                                                                • Figure 15: UK retail sales of hot cereals, by value, 2011-21
                                                                                • Figure 16: UK retail sales of hot cereals, by volume, 2011-21
                                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                                • Sugar remains on the agenda
                                                                                  • Competition for the breakfast occasion
                                                                                    • Ageing population should benefit porridge
                                                                                      • Figure 17: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-16 and 2016-21
                                                                                    • Weakening Pound poses risk of rising prices
                                                                                    • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                      • Market leader Kellogg’s continues to see falling RTE cereal sales
                                                                                        • Weetabix extends lead, Nestlé’s sales fall
                                                                                          • Quaker continues to dominate hot cereals
                                                                                            • Cereal launches hit four-year high in 2015
                                                                                              • Kellogg’s and Quaker Oats target wellness trend with positive nutrition
                                                                                                • Protein trend gathers momentum, L/N/R sugar remains niche
                                                                                                  • Advertising spend plateaus as focus turns to positive nutrition
                                                                                                    • Weetabix enjoys the highest brand commitment
                                                                                                    • Market Share

                                                                                                      • Market leader Kellogg’s continues to see falling RTE cereal sales
                                                                                                        • Chocolate cereals buck health trend
                                                                                                          • Figure 18: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                          • Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                        • Growth extends Weetabix’s lead as biggest RTE brand
                                                                                                          • Nestlé’s sales fall, ABF sees mixed results
                                                                                                            • Figure 20: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                          • Quaker continues to dominate hot cereals
                                                                                                            • Kellogg’s sees porridge sales fall as Special K struggles
                                                                                                              • Own-label grows ahead of market
                                                                                                                • Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK hot cereals market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                                • Figure 22: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK hot cereals market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                            • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                              • Cereal launches hit four-year high in 2015
                                                                                                                • Figure 23: Share of NPD in the UK breakfast cereals market, by sub-category, 2012-16
                                                                                                              • Kellogg’s targets wellness trend with positive nutrition
                                                                                                                  • Figure 24: Share of NPD in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
                                                                                                                • Quaker Oats launches Super Goodness range
                                                                                                                  • Protein trend gathers momentum
                                                                                                                    • L/N/R sugar claims grow but remain niche
                                                                                                                      • Gluten-free continues to receive growing attention
                                                                                                                        • Figure 25: Share of NPD in the UK breakfast cereals market, by selected health claims, 2012-16
                                                                                                                      • Sown & Grown launch in disruptive packaging
                                                                                                                      • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                        • Advertising spend plateaus in 2015
                                                                                                                          • Figure 26: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by category, 2012-16
                                                                                                                        • Kellogg’s continues repositioning of Special K
                                                                                                                          • Kellogg’s supports Ancient Legends launch with VR experience
                                                                                                                            • Weetabix and Quaker focus on positive nutrition and wholesomeness
                                                                                                                              • Weetabix shifts focus to nutritional benefits
                                                                                                                                • Quaker ups spend to support granola launch
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by top 5 advertisers (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
                                                                                                                                • Alpen and Quaker focus on the breakfast occasion
                                                                                                                                  • Customisation and creativity take centre stage
                                                                                                                                    • Nestlé opens Aisle of Wonder pop-up cereal store
                                                                                                                                      • Brands look to promote sports and activity
                                                                                                                                        • Kellogg’s goes for gold with Team GB Olympic sponsorship…
                                                                                                                                          • …while Weetabix launches Summer of Sport
                                                                                                                                            • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                            • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                • What you need to know
                                                                                                                                                  • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Key metrics for selected brands, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • Brand attitudes: Weetabix and Kellogg’s Corn Flakes excel on trust, quality and reputation
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Attitudes, by brand, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • Brand personality – macro: Krave stands out as fun and vibrant
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Brand personality – macro image, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • Brand personality – micro: Weetabix and Kellogg’s Corn Flakes share a traditional, family image
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Brand personality – micro image, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                                    • Quaker Oat So Simple stands out as moving forward
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 33: User profile of Quaker Oat So Simple, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                    • Weetabix is the most trusted and reputable brand
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 34: User profile of Weetabix, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                    • Jordans enjoys a strong ethical image
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 35: User profile of Jordans, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                    • Kellogg’s Corn Flakes has the strongest image as traditional and family
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 36: User profile of Kellogg’s Corn Flakes, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                    • Healthy image remains Special K’s key strength
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: User profile of Special K, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                    • Alpen challenges competitors on health and naturalness
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: User profile of Alpen, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                    • Shreddies lacks momentum
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: User profile of Shreddies, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                    • Krave has the fun factor, but loses out on healthiness
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: User profile of Krave, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                                    • RTE cereals are eaten by 83%
                                                                                                                                                      • Two in five eat porridge oats
                                                                                                                                                        • Breakfast continues to be the main occasion for eating cereals
                                                                                                                                                          • High fibre is a key factor
                                                                                                                                                            • Demand for low-sugar cereals
                                                                                                                                                              • Young men value high protein most
                                                                                                                                                                • Strong associations between fibre and digestive health
                                                                                                                                                                  • ‘Positive nutrition’ resonates
                                                                                                                                                                    • Cereal and yogurt pots attract interest
                                                                                                                                                                      • Parents struggle to find healthy and tasty kids’ cereals
                                                                                                                                                                        • Taste trumps healthiness for many
                                                                                                                                                                        • Breakfast Cereal Usage

                                                                                                                                                                          • RTE cereals are eaten by 83%
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Frequency of eating breakfast cereals, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                          • Two in five eat porridge oats
                                                                                                                                                                            • Plain cereals are most popular type
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Usage of breakfast cereals, by type, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                            • Families are core eaters of RTE cereals
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 43: Usage of RTE breakfast cereals, by type, by the presence of children, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                            • Flavoured cereals are popular with 16-24-year-olds
                                                                                                                                                                              • Use of granola and muesli skewed towards higher earners
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Usage of granola and muesli, by gross annual household income, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                            • Occasions for Eating Breakfast Cereals

                                                                                                                                                                              • Breakfast continues to be the main occasion for eating cereals
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 45: Occasions for eating breakfast cereals, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                              • Under-45s are main users beyond breakfast
                                                                                                                                                                              • Nutritional Factors Deemed Important when Buying Breakfast Cereals

                                                                                                                                                                                • High fibre is a key factor
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 46: Nutritional factors deemed important when buying breakfast cereals, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                • Wholegrain is important to 47%
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Demand for low-sugar cereals
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Naturalness appeals to 56%
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Young men value high protein most
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Behaviours Relating to Breakfast Cereals

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Strong associations between fibre and digestive health
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 47: Behaviours relating to breakfast cereals, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Tailoring sugar contents appeals
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Toppings are popular
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Attitudes towards Breakfast Cereals

                                                                                                                                                                                            • ‘Positive nutrition’ resonates
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 48: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, June 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Cereal and yogurt pots attract interest
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Parents struggle to find healthy and tasty kids’ cereals
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Taste trumps healthiness for many
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Forecast Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 49: Total UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Total UK retail volume sales of breakfast cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: UK retail value sales of RTE breakfast cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 52: UK retail volume sales of RTE breakfast cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: UK retail value sales of hot breakfast cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: UK retail volume sales of RTE breakfast cereals, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                          To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Breakfast Cereals - UK - August 2016

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