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Breakfast Entrees and Sandwiches - US - November 2010

The market for frozen and refrigerated breakfast entrées and sandwiches showed impressive growth in 2006, but the rate of growth decelerated in 2007 and then again in 2008 and 2009, as recession gripped the nation. Like many other sectors, this is a category that is faced with the challenge of frugal and often fickle consumers who continue to look far and wide for low prices on products that fit their preferences and needs. Mintel expects that growth will accelerate considerably through the end of 2010 as a result of a slight uptick in consumer confidence and the introduction of better-for-you (BFY) products designed to satisfy demands for breakfasts that are quick, easy to prepare and tasty, but also less than 300 calories.

While this is a challenging environment, there are significant opportunities for companies that develop products that are an ideal fit with consumer preferences, as well as messaging that resonates with high demand segments. As such, Mintel has prepared this report, which provides a comprehensive analysis of the category with a focus on the breakfast consumer, addressing the following questions:

  • How have sales of frozen and refrigerated breakfast entrées and sandwiches fluctuated in recent years and how are they likely to change in the future?
  • What segments of the category are performing well and which are displaying lackluster performance?
  • How are macroeconomic and health-related trends impacting sales and how do they appear to be influencing product development and marketing efforts?
  • What are the primary competitive threats to the category?
  • How is the breakfast offering at the nation’s restaurants changing and how might this impact the competitive environment and sales in retail?
  • Which segments of the population have concentrations of category users and which are less valuable to marketers of frozen and refrigerated breakfast products?

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer data
              • Advertising clips
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                    • Terms
                    • Executive Summary

                      • The breakfast entrées and sandwiches sector is back on track
                        • BFY formulations driving growth at some firms
                          • Cereal and QSRs represent primary competitive threats
                            • Segment performance driven by breakfast sandwiches
                              • Supermarkets dominate, but other channel sales growing quickly
                                • Fast and healthy options pique consumer interest and drive innovation
                                  • Most Americans eat breakfast—but not entrées and sandwiches
                                    • Growth may be hampered by lack of marketing attention
                                    • Insights and Opportunities

                                      • Consider introducing more BFY and premium options to attract foodies, affluents and over-55s
                                          • Figure 1: Attributes diet watchers look for in food, 2006/07 and 2008/09
                                        • Use social media and apps to get parents and kids involved in brands
                                        • Inspire Insights

                                            • Trend: Tug of War
                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                              • Key points
                                                • Sales growth expected to pick up in 2010 after decelerating during recession
                                                  • “Classic” microwaveable, inexpensive products will drive growth
                                                    • Figure 2: FDMx sales of breakfast entrées and sandwiches, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                    • Figure 3: FDMx sales of breakfast entrées and sandwiches, at inflation-adjusted prices*, 2005-15
                                                  • Fan-chart forecast
                                                      • Figure 4: FDMx sales of breakfast entrées and sandwiches, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                    • Walmart sales
                                                    • Market Drivers

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • High unemployment and declines in household earnings drive demand for inexpensive breakfast foods
                                                          • Figure 5: U.S. unemployment and underemployment rates, June 2007-September, 2010
                                                        • Recession drove down median household incomes, which drives up price sensitivity
                                                          • Figure 6: Median household income in inflation-adjusted dollars, 1999-2009
                                                        • Low consumer confidence drives widespread frugality
                                                          • Figure 7: Consumer sentiment index, June 2007-September, 2010
                                                        • Weak economic conditions and frugality put pressure on manufacturers to keep prices very low
                                                          • Figure 8: Consumer Price Index: all food, food at home and food away from home, 2007-11
                                                        • Cooking at home trend drives demand for easy-to-prepare breakfast foods
                                                          • Figure 9: Incidence of cooking more at home to save money and improve nutrition, by age, July 2010
                                                        • Slow decline in households with children could undermine long-term growth
                                                          • Figure 10: Households, by presence of children, 1999-2009
                                                        • Demand for BFY options likely to play key role in driving growth when economy strengthens
                                                          • Figure 11: Incidence of presently watching/controlling diet, 2004/05-2008/09
                                                      • Competitive Context

                                                        • Key points
                                                            • Figure 12: Household usage of various breakfast foods, by age, February 2009-March 2010
                                                            • Figure 13: U.S. FDMx sales of cereal, 2004-14
                                                          • New breakfast items including coffee and smoothie drinks help position QSRs as a key competitive threat
                                                            • Figure 14: Subway Breakfast Combo, November 2010
                                                        • Segment Performance

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Sandwiches and frozen entrées drive growth as refrigerated entrées lose ground
                                                              • Figure 15: FDMx sales of breakfast entrées and sandwiches, by segment, 2008-10
                                                          • Segment Performance—Frozen Breakfast Entrées

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • Frozen breakfast entrée segment struggles to achieve pre-recession growth rates
                                                                • Figure 16: FDMx sales of frozen breakfast entrées, 2005-15
                                                            • Segment Performance—Frozen Breakfast Sandwiches

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Sandwiches key driver of growth
                                                                  • Figure 17: FDMx sales and forecast of frozen breakfast sandwiches, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                              • Segment Performance—Refrigerated Breakfast Entrées

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Refrigerated entrées drag down overall growth; premium options could revive the category
                                                                    • Figure 18: FDMx sales and forecast of refrigerated breakfast entrées, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                                • Retail Channels

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Supermarkets remain dominant but growth in other channels rising quickly
                                                                      • Figure 19: FDMx sales of breakfast entrées and sandwiches, by channel, 2008 and 2010
                                                                    • FDMx sales growth at food stores accelerates in 2010
                                                                      • Figure 20: FDMx sales of breakfast entrées and sandwiches in supermarket/food stores, at current prices, 2005-10
                                                                    • Sales growth accelerates as drug stores offer more frozen and private label options
                                                                      • Figure 21: FDMx sales of breakfast entrées and sandwiches in other retailers, at current prices, 2005-10
                                                                  • Leading Companies

                                                                    • Sara Lee and private label show significant gains as some other companies struggle
                                                                      • Pinnacle Foods Corp
                                                                        • Figure 22: Aunt Jemima Eggs and Sausage Frozen Entrée, November 2010
                                                                      • Kellogg Co.
                                                                        • Private label sales growing quickly
                                                                          • Figure 23: Manufacturer FDMx sales of breakfast entrées and sandwiches in the U.S., 2009 and 2010
                                                                      • Brand Share—Frozen Breakfast Entrées

                                                                        • Key point
                                                                          • Sara Lee maintains dominance with Jimmy Dean breakfast bowls and D-Lights
                                                                              • Figure 24: Selected FDMx brand sales of frozen breakfast entrées, 2009 and 2010
                                                                          • Brand Share—Frozen Breakfast Sandwiches

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Jimmy Dean also achieves growth in sandwiches with BFY options
                                                                                  • Figure 25: Selected FDMx brand sales of frozen breakfast sandwiches, 2009 and 2010
                                                                              • Brand Share—Refrigerated Breakfast Entrées

                                                                                • Key point
                                                                                  • FDMx sales of refrigerated options continue downward trend
                                                                                    • Figure 26: Selected FDMx brand sales of refrigerated breakfast entrées, 2009* and 2010*
                                                                                • Innovations and Innovators

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Manufacturers continue to focus on convenience and health when introducing new products
                                                                                      • Figure 27: Top 10 product claims across breakfast prepared meals, sandwiches/wraps, 2005-10
                                                                                    • Despite growth of private label, name brands continue to make up majority of new product introductions
                                                                                      • Figure 28: Private label launches vs. name brands, across breakfast prepared meals, sandwiches/wraps, 2005-10
                                                                                      • Figure 29: Top companies and brands with product launches across breakfast prepared meals, sandwiches/wraps, 2005-10
                                                                                    • Some companies introducing BFY options to capitalize on growing demand
                                                                                      • Private label products another important area of innovation
                                                                                      • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                        • Overview
                                                                                          • Jimmy Dean
                                                                                            • Television ads
                                                                                              • Figure 30: Jimmy Dean D-Lights television ad, 2009
                                                                                              • Figure 31: Jimmy Dean Breakfast Bowls television ad, 2010
                                                                                            • Website
                                                                                              • Figure 32: Quantcast estimates for jimmydean.com, March-August 2010
                                                                                            • Social media
                                                                                              • Facebook
                                                                                                • YouTube
                                                                                                  • In-store marketing
                                                                                                    • Hot Pockets website and social media
                                                                                                      • Breakfastpockets.com
                                                                                                        • Facebook
                                                                                                        • Breakfast Trends in Restaurants

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • QSRs and sandwich shops expanding breakfast lines to drive sales growth
                                                                                                                • Breakfast sandwiches lead the pack on menus
                                                                                                                  • Figure 33: Top breakfast dishes on menus, 2007-10
                                                                                                                  • Figure 34: Top 20 breakfast dishes on menus, by protein source, 2007-10
                                                                                                                • Manufacturers may gain an edge if restaurants do not introduce more BFY options
                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Top 10 breakfast dishes on menus, by nutritional claims, 2007-10
                                                                                                              • Breakfast Consumption

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • The average consumer eats breakfast on most days
                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Frequency of consumption during the week—weekdays and weekends, by gender, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                  • Over-55 segment more likely than younger adults to eat breakfast every day
                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Frequency of consumption during the week—weekdays and weekends, by age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                  • Most prepare and consume breakfast at home but portability important on weekdays
                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Locales where breakfast is prepared/bought—weekdays and weekends, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Locales where breakfast is consumed—weekdays and weekends, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                  • Young adults (18-34s) more likely to need portable products that can be consumed on the go
                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Locales where breakfast is prepared/bought—weekdays, by age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Locales where breakfast is consumed—weekdays and weekends, by age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                  • Sandwiches more popular than entrées
                                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Household usage of frozen breakfast entrées and sandwiches, by age, February 2009-March 2010
                                                                                                                • Types of Breakfast Foods Eaten

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Speed and convenience critical on weekdays while weekends are more a time for indulgent and leisurely options
                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Types of breakfast foods eaten—weekdays and weekends, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Breakfast entrée and sandwich usage during the week—weekdays and weekends, by presence of children, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                    • Minorities somewhat more likely to use the products
                                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Breakfast entrée and sandwich usage during the week—weekdays and weekends, by race/Hispanic origin, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                  • Attitudes Toward Breakfast Foods Eaten at Home

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Women are more likely than men to view breakfast as most important
                                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Beliefs about breakfast versus other meals, by gender, February 2009-March 2010
                                                                                                                      • Women tend to hold more pro-breakfast attitudes than men
                                                                                                                        • Figure 47: Attitudes toward breakfast foods eaten at home, by gender, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                      • Individuals from households with children are much more likely to have pro-breakfast attitudes
                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Attitudes toward breakfast foods eaten at home, by presence of children, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                      • Affluents more likely to read nutritional labels than the rest of the population
                                                                                                                        • Figure 49: Health, variety, brand and outlet preferences, by household income, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                    • Kid and Teen Usage of Breakfast Foods

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Large proportions of kids aged 6-11 report eating breakfast at fast food restaurants
                                                                                                                          • Figure 50: Kids’ usage of various breakfast foods, by gender and age, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                        • Sandwiches are more popular than entrées with kids, especially boys
                                                                                                                          • Figure 51: Kids’ usage of frozen breakfast entrées and sandwiches, by gender and age, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                        • Among teens, males prefer breakfast sandwiches and both genders show less interest in frozen breakfast entrées
                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: Teens’ usage of frozen breakfast entrées and sandwiches, by gender and age, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                      • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                          • Breakfasteers
                                                                                                                            • Demographics
                                                                                                                              • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                  • Indulgers
                                                                                                                                    • Demographics
                                                                                                                                      • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                        • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                          • Consisters
                                                                                                                                            • Demographics
                                                                                                                                              • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                                • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Breakfast entrée clusters, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Attributes that matter most to breakfast foods—weekdays, by breakfast entrée clusters, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 55: Attributes that matter most to breakfast foods—weekends, by breakfast entrée clusters, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Health, variety, brand and outlet preferences, by breakfast entrée clusters, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Attitudes toward breakfast foods eaten at home, by breakfast entrée clusters, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Breakfast entrée clusters, by gender, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Breakfast entrée clusters, by age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Breakfast entrée clusters, by household income, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 61: Breakfast entrée clusters, by race, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 62: Breakfast entrée clusters, by Hispanic origin, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                  • Custom Consumer Groups

                                                                                                                                                    • Over-55 men and women more likely to eat at home than 18-34s
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: Locales where breakfast is prepared/bought—weekdays, by gender and age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 64: Locales where breakfast is consumed—weekdays and weekends, by gender and age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                      • Mature women most likely to seek BFY products
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 65: Claims and positioning of importance—weekdays, by gender and age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Mature women driven to eat breakfast due to several factors
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 66: Attitudes toward breakfast foods eaten at home, by gender and age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                          • Women more likely to read nutritional labels and shop at mass outlets
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Health, variety, brand and outlet preferences, by gender and age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                          • IRI/Builders—Key Household Purchase Measures

                                                                                                                                                              • Overview of frozen breakfast food
                                                                                                                                                                • Frozen breakfast entrées
                                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen breakfast entrées
                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Brand map, selected brands of frozen breakfast entrées buying rate, by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                      • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 69: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen breakfast entrées, by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                      • Frozen breakfast (handheld)
                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen breakfast (handheld)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 70: Brand map, selected brands of frozen breakfast (handheld) buying rate, by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                          • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                            • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen breakfast (handheld), by household penetration, 2009*
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix—Additional Consumer Tables

                                                                                                                                                                            • Teens
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 72: Teens’ usage of various breakfast foods, by gender and age, November 2008-December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                            • Age
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 73: Locales where breakfast is prepared/bought—weekends, by age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 74: Claims and positioning of importance—weekdays, by age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 75: Attributes that matter most to breakfast foods consumers—weekdays and weekends, by age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 76: Breakfast entrée and sandwich usage during the week—weekdays and weekends, by age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 77: Beliefs about breakfast versus other meals, by age, February 2009-March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 78: Health, variety, brand and outlet preferences, by age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 79: Attitudes toward breakfast foods eaten at home, by age, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                            • Household income
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 80: Beliefs about breakfast versus other meals, by household income, February 2009-March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 81: Household usage of frozen breakfast entrées and sandwiches, by household income, February 2009-March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 82: Breakfast entrée and sandwich usage during the week—weekdays and weekends, by household income, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 83: Attitudes toward breakfast foods eaten at home, by household income, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                            • Race/Hispanic origin
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 84: Health, variety, brand and outlet preferences, by race/Hispanic origin, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 85: Frequency of consumption during the week, by race/Hispanic origin, July/August 2010
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix—Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                            • American Dietetic Association (ADA)
                                                                                                                                                                            • American Frozen Food Institute
                                                                                                                                                                            • American Institute of Food Distribution
                                                                                                                                                                            • Arby's Restaurant Group
                                                                                                                                                                            • Birds Eye Foods
                                                                                                                                                                            • Bob Evans Farms Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                            • Bureau of Economic Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                            • Burger King Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                            • Caribou Coffee Company Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                            • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
                                                                                                                                                                            • Costco Wholesale Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                            • CVS Caremark Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                            • Dell Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                            • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                            • Food Marketing Institute
                                                                                                                                                                            • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                                            • Giant Eagle
                                                                                                                                                                            • Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA)
                                                                                                                                                                            • Grocery Manufacturers of America
                                                                                                                                                                            • HJ Heinz Company
                                                                                                                                                                            • Kellogg Company
                                                                                                                                                                            • McDonald's U.S.A.
                                                                                                                                                                            • Morningstar, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                            • National Frozen and Refrigerated Food Association
                                                                                                                                                                            • Nestlé USA
                                                                                                                                                                            • Pillsbury
                                                                                                                                                                            • Pinnacle Foods Group Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                            • Ruiz Foods, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                            • Safeway Inc
                                                                                                                                                                            • Sara Lee Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                            • Starbucks Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                            • Stop & Shop
                                                                                                                                                                            • Subway
                                                                                                                                                                            • Target Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                            • The New York Times Company
                                                                                                                                                                            • The Quiznos Master LLC
                                                                                                                                                                            • The Wendy's Company
                                                                                                                                                                            • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                            • U.S. Bureau of the Census
                                                                                                                                                                            • U.S. Department of Agriculture
                                                                                                                                                                            • University of Michigan, The
                                                                                                                                                                            • US Department of Commerce
                                                                                                                                                                            • Walgreen Co
                                                                                                                                                                            • Walmart Stores (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                            • Weight Watchers International Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                            • Whole Foods Market Inc
                                                                                                                                                                            • YouTube, Inc.

                                                                                                                                                                            Breakfast Entrees and Sandwiches - US - November 2010

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