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Breakfast Restaurant Trends - US - February 2011

Breakfast at restaurants has fared better than other dayparts in the down economy, helped along by it being a relatively inexpensive way to still have a restaurant meal and the constant need for a morning meal for harried on-the-go consumers, as well as the new influx of restaurant chains now serving breakfast.

Restaurants have been stepping up to the plate to meet this demand, and are responding as well, albeit somewhat slowly, to the rallying cry for healthier options on breakfast menus. A greater number of artisanal ingredients are working their way into traditional menu items, such as the ever-popular handheld breakfast sandwich.

This report explores these topics in depth along with the following, and more:

  • Ways that menus can easily incorporate healthier menu items to meet consumer demand
  • The importance of value pricing and why it’s here to stay (at least for the near term)
  • Why limited-time offers (LTOs) are essential, and how operators can best take advantage of these items
  • What breakfast foods are ordered most both during the week and on weekends, and who is ordering them
  • What the different generations are most likely to look for when choosing a restaurant for breakfast and what type of restaurant they are heading for most often
  • How the face of advertising is changing as television, web and social media efforts coexist

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Mintel Menu Insights
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising creative
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                    • Terms
                    • Executive Summary

                        • Restaurant sales and consumer sentiment see boosts
                          • BFY, LTO, and techno drive breakfast trends
                            • Competition comes from CPG and nontraditional outlets
                              • Trends are seen across the segments
                                • Television, internet, and social media band together for advertising efforts
                                  • Breakfast usage
                                    • Restaurant breakfast spending trends
                                      • Restaurant selection factors for breakfast
                                        • Menu items ordered for breakfast
                                          • Attitudes toward restaurant breakfasts
                                          • Insights and Opportunities

                                            • Key points
                                              • Setting the stage with a healthy breakfast
                                                • Kids’ meals
                                                  • There’s an “app” for that
                                                    • Using LTOs to enhance menu staples
                                                      • Humane sourcing of ingredients
                                                      • Inspire Insights

                                                          • Trend—Premiumization and Indulgence
                                                              • Figure 1: Restaurant selection criteria on the weekend, by household income, October 2010
                                                            • Consider this
                                                              • Bottom line
                                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Breakfast sales rebounding
                                                                    • Sales and forecast of breakfast at restaurants
                                                                      • Figure 2: U.S. breakfast restaurant sales, at current prices, 2005-15
                                                                      • Figure 3: U.S. breakfast restaurant sales, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
                                                                    • Fan-chart forecast
                                                                        • Figure 4: U.S. breakfast restaurant sales, fan forecast, 2005-15
                                                                    • Competitive Context

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • CPG breakfasts hold the convenience and health trump cards
                                                                          • Breakfast out from nontraditional sources
                                                                          • Market Drivers

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Economic factors
                                                                                • Figure 5: Adjusted foodservice and drinking place sales, January 2008-December 2010
                                                                                • Figure 6: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-January 2011
                                                                                • Figure 7: U.S. real disposable personal income growth, January 2007-October 2010
                                                                              • Attitudes and behaviors
                                                                                • Figure 8: NRA Performance Indices, January 2009-December 2010
                                                                                • Figure 9: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007-January 2011
                                                                              • Demographic factors
                                                                                  • Figure 10: Population, by age, 2006-16
                                                                              • Restaurant Analysis: Quick Service

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • QSR: An overview
                                                                                      • Figure 11: Average number times visited fast food restaurant, summer 2010
                                                                                      • Figure 12: Who breakfast diners eat with at fast food restaurants, summer 2010
                                                                                      • Figure 13: Fast food restaurants most visited, summer 2010
                                                                                      • Figure 14: Top 10 breakfast items on the QSR menu, by incidence, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
                                                                                  • Restaurant Analysis: Fast Casual

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Fast casual: An overview
                                                                                          • Figure 15: Fast casual chains visited by those who eat breakfast, summer 2010
                                                                                          • Figure 16: Top 10 breakfast items on the menu, by incidence, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
                                                                                      • Restaurant Analysis: Family Midscale

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Family midscale: An overview
                                                                                              • Figure 17: Average number of visits to family midscale restaurants, summer 2010
                                                                                              • Figure 18: Who breakfast diners eat with at family midscale restaurants, summer 2010
                                                                                              • Figure 19: Family midscale restaurants most visited, summer 2010
                                                                                              • Figure 20: Top 10 breakfast items on the family/midscale menu, by incidence, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
                                                                                          • Restaurant Analysis: Beverage

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Beverage: An overview
                                                                                                  • Figure 21: Beverage restaurants visited, Summer 2010
                                                                                              • Marketing Strategies

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Television ads
                                                                                                    • Figure 22: Burger King television ad, 2010
                                                                                                    • Figure 23: Burger King television ad, 2010
                                                                                                    • Figure 24: Caribou television ad, 2010
                                                                                                    • Figure 25: Denny’s television ad, 2010
                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Denny’s television ad, 2010
                                                                                                  • Websites
                                                                                                    • Figure 27: BK.com monthly visitors, May 2010-November 2010
                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Au Bon Pain’s monthly visitors, May 2010-November 2010
                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Denny’s monthly visitors, May 2010-November 2010
                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Denny’s monthly visitors, May 2010-November 2010
                                                                                                  • Social media
                                                                                                    • Burger King
                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Burger King Twitter page, January 2011
                                                                                                    • Caribou Coffee
                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Caribou’s Facebook page, January 2011
                                                                                                    • Au Bon Pain
                                                                                                      • Figure 33: Au Bon Pain Facebook page, January 2011
                                                                                                    • Denny’s
                                                                                                      • Figure 34: Denny’s Facebook Page, January 2011
                                                                                                  • Menu Insights Analysis: The Breakfast Menu

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Overview
                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Breakfast items on the menu, by incidence and restaurant segment, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
                                                                                                        • Figure 36: Breakfast items on the menu, by incidence, price, and restaurant segment, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
                                                                                                        • Figure 37: Top 10 breakfast items on the menu, by incidence, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
                                                                                                        • Figure 38: Top 10 breakfast items on the menu, by incidence and price, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Top 10 breakfast ingredients on the menu, by incidence, Q3 2007-Q3 2010
                                                                                                    • Breakfast Usage

                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                        • Restaurant segment usage
                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Types of restaurant used for breakfast, October 2010
                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Types of restaurant used for breakfast on weekdays or weekends, October 2010
                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Types of restaurant used for breakfast on weekdays, by age, October 2010
                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Types of restaurant used for breakfast on weekdays, by presence of children, October 2010
                                                                                                        • Use on weekends
                                                                                                          • Figure 44: Types of restaurant used for breakfast on weekends, by household income, October 2010
                                                                                                          • Figure 45: Types of restaurant used for breakfast on weekends, by presence of children, October 2010
                                                                                                      • Restaurant Breakfast Spending Trends

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Weekday spending
                                                                                                            • Figure 46: Restaurant breakfast spending habits on weekdays and weekends, October 2010
                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Restaurant breakfast weekday spending habits, by gender, October 2010
                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Restaurant breakfast weekday spending habits, by household income, October 2010
                                                                                                          • Weekends
                                                                                                            • Figure 49: Restaurant breakfast weekend spending habits, by gender, October 2010
                                                                                                            • Figure 50: Restaurant breakfast weekend spending habits, by gender, October 2010
                                                                                                            • Figure 51: Breakfast spending mean at restaurants, weekday versus weekend, October 2010
                                                                                                            • Figure 52: Breakfast spending at restaurants, weekday versus weekend, October 2010
                                                                                                            • Figure 53: Breakfast weekday spending at restaurants, by age, October 2010
                                                                                                            • Figure 54: Breakfast weekday spending at restaurants, by household income, October 2010
                                                                                                          • Weekend
                                                                                                            • Figure 55: Breakfast weekend spending at restaurants, by gender, October 2010
                                                                                                            • Figure 56: Breakfast weekend spending at restaurants, by household income, October 2010
                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Change in breakfast spending next year, October 2010
                                                                                                            • Figure 58: Change in breakfast spending next year, by household income, October 2010
                                                                                                        • Restaurant Selection Factors for Breakfast

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Cost continues to be top-of-mind
                                                                                                              • Figure 59: Restaurant selection criteria on weekdays and on the weekend, November 2009 and October 2010
                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Restaurant selection criteria on weekdays and on the weekend, October 2010
                                                                                                            • Weekdays
                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Restaurant selection criteria on weekdays, by age, October 2010
                                                                                                              • Figure 62: Restaurant selection criteria on weekdays, by household income, October 2010
                                                                                                            • Weekend
                                                                                                              • Figure 63: Restaurant selection criteria on the weekend, by age, October 2010
                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Restaurant selection criteria on the weekend, by household income, October 2010
                                                                                                          • Menu Items Ordered For Breakfast

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Coffee a constant
                                                                                                                • Figure 65: Breakfast menu selections on weekdays and on the weekend, October 2010
                                                                                                              • Weekdays
                                                                                                                • Figure 66: Breakfast menu selections on weekdays, by age, October 2010
                                                                                                                • Figure 67: Breakfast menu selections on weekdays, by race/ethnicity, October 2010
                                                                                                              • Weekend
                                                                                                                • Figure 68: Breakfast menu selections on the weekend, by gender, October 2010
                                                                                                            • Attitudes Toward Restaurant Breakfasts

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Rallying cry for healthy breakfast continues
                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Attitudes toward restaurant breakfasts, October 2010
                                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Attitudes toward restaurant breakfasts, by gender, October 2010
                                                                                                              • Kids Breakfast at Restaurant Usage

                                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Kids aged 6-11 use of fast food and family restaurants, April 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Fast food usage by eating occasion among kids aged 6-11, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                                  • Figure 73: Top fast food chains visited by children aged 6-11, April 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                                  • Figure 74: Top family restaurants that serve breakfast visited by children aged 6-11, April 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                                  • Figure 75: Teens aged 12-17 visits to fast food restaurants, by dining partners, April 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                                  • Figure 76: top fast food chains most visited by teens aged 12-17, April 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                                  • Figure 77: Teens aged 12-17 visits to family restaurants, by dining partners, April 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                                  • Figure 78: Top family style restaurant chains most visited by teens aged 12-17, April 2009-June 2010
                                                                                                              • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                  • Frequents
                                                                                                                    • Demographics
                                                                                                                      • Characteristics
                                                                                                                        • Opportunity
                                                                                                                          • Relaxers
                                                                                                                            • Demographics
                                                                                                                              • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                  • Thrifties
                                                                                                                                    • Demographics
                                                                                                                                      • Characteristics
                                                                                                                                        • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                          • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 79: Breakfast trends clusters, December 2010
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 80: Restaurant selection criteria, by breakfast trends clusters, December 2010
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 81: Types of restaurant used for breakfast, by breakfast trends clusters, December 2010
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 82: Attitudes toward restaurant breakfast, by breakfast trends clusters, December 2010
                                                                                                                                          • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 83: Breakfast trends clusters, by gender, December 2010
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 84: Breakfast trends clusters, by age group, December 2010
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 85: Breakfast trends clusters, by household income, December 2010
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 86: Breakfast trends clusters, by race, December 2010
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 87: Breakfast trends clusters, by Hispanic origin, December 2010
                                                                                                                                          • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                          • Custom Consumer Tables: Light, Medium, and Heavy Usage

                                                                                                                                            • Usage frequency
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 88: Usage frequency, October 2010
                                                                                                                                              • Restaurant selection factors for breakfast
                                                                                                                                                • Weekdays
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 89: Restaurant selection criteria on weekdays, by frequency of use, October 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Weekends
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 90: Restaurant selection criteria on the weekend, by frequency of use, October 2010
                                                                                                                                                • Menu items ordered for breakfast
                                                                                                                                                  • Weekdays
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 91: Breakfast menu selections on weekdays and on the weekend, by frequency of use, October 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • Weekends
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 92: Breakfast menu selections on the weekend, by frequency of use, October 2010
                                                                                                                                                  • Restaurant breakfast spending trends
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 93: Restaurant breakfast spending habits on weekdays, by frequency of use, October 2010
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 94: Breakfast spending mean at restaurants, weekday versus weekend, October 2010
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 95: Change in breakfast spending next year, by frequency of use, October 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Attitudes toward restaurant breakfasts
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 96: Attitudes toward restaurant breakfasts, by frequency of use, October 2010
                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                      • Bureau of Economic Analysis
                                                                                                                                                      • Burger King Corporation
                                                                                                                                                      • Caribou Coffee Company Inc.
                                                                                                                                                      • Dunkin' Brands
                                                                                                                                                      • Einstein Noah Restaurant Group Inc.
                                                                                                                                                      • Food and Drug Administration
                                                                                                                                                      • Food Distributors International
                                                                                                                                                      • International Food Service Executives Association (IFSEA)
                                                                                                                                                      • International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA)
                                                                                                                                                      • International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA)
                                                                                                                                                      • International Franchise Association (IFA)
                                                                                                                                                      • International Hotel and Restaurants Association (IH&RA)
                                                                                                                                                      • KFC Corporation
                                                                                                                                                      • McDonald's Corporation
                                                                                                                                                      • National Council of Chain Restaurants (NCCR)
                                                                                                                                                      • National Restaurant Association (NRA)
                                                                                                                                                      • National Retail Federation (NRF)
                                                                                                                                                      • Panera Bread Company
                                                                                                                                                      • Pizza Hut Inc
                                                                                                                                                      • Starbucks Corporation
                                                                                                                                                      • Taco Bell Corp.
                                                                                                                                                      • Taco John's International, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                      • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                      • U.S. Department of Agriculture

                                                                                                                                                      Breakfast Restaurant Trends - US - February 2011

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