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Brexit - One Year Later - Ireland - October 2017

“The depreciation of Sterling since the UK’s vote to leave the EU provides significant growth opportunities for the NI tourism sector post-Brexit.  Operators could therefore look to invest in growing their capacity and developing their offering to attract more visitors from RoI and key overseas markets.  Value-for-money messaging will be key for RoI operators to attract visitors, particularly from its key source market of Great Britain.”

– James Wilson, Research Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • NI, RoI and GB are dependent on trade with each other
  • Farmers expect Brexit to impact their businesses
  • UK business confidence sees significant fall
  • Demand for Irish passports high in GB and NI

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Issues covered in the Report
      • Executive Summary

          • Market factors
            • NI, RoI and GB are dependent on trade with each other
              • Farmers expect Brexit to impact their businesses
                • UK business confidence sees significant fall
                  • Demand for Irish passports high in GB and NI
                    • The consumer
                      • Most consumers’ finances the same compared to a year ago
                        • Figure 1: How consumers describe their finances compared to a year ago, NI and RoI, September 2017
                      • Irish consumers unsure about Brexit impact
                        • Figure 2: How consumers feel Brexit will impact their future personal situation, NI and RoI, September 2017
                      • Consumers uncertain about Brexit impact on economy
                        • Figure 3: What effect consumers think Brexit will have on the economy, NI and RoI, September 2017
                      • Little increase in cross-border activity
                        • Figure 4: Cross-border activities undertaken by consumers in the last 12 months, NI and RoI, September 2017
                      • Clothing a key past and future spending intention
                        • Figure 5: Areas where consumers have spent money in the last three months, and future spending intentions, NI and RoI, September 2017
                      • Consumers want greater availability of local products
                        • Figure 6: Agreement with statements relating to Brexit, NI and RoI, September 2017
                      • What we think
                      • The Market – What You Need to Know

                        • Brexit impact on Sterling has potential to benefit NI
                          • Trade between GB, NI and RoI is important for all regions
                            • Agri-food sector expects Brexit impact
                              • Dublin seeking to benefit from UK’s EU departure
                                • RoI consumers see future as positive, NI consumers pessimistic
                                • Market Drivers

                                  • Brexit: key dates so far
                                    • Figure 7: Breakdown of EU referendum results, UK, by region, June 2016
                                  • NI exports rise in 2016
                                    • Figure 8: Total value of exports, NI, 2015 and 2016
                                  • RoI is NI’s main export market
                                    • Figure 9: Top five export markets, NI, 2016
                                  • RoI exports exceed imports
                                    • Figure 10: Total value of imports and exports, RoI, 2015 and 2016
                                  • US top export market for RoI, GB third
                                    • Figure 11: Top export markets, RoI, 2015 and 2016
                                    • Figure 12: Top import markets, RoI, 2015 and 2016
                                  • Most farmers think Brexit will impact their businesses
                                    • Figure 13: Will Brexit have an impact on Irish farming, IoI, September 2017
                                  • RoI optimistic on Brexit
                                    • Figure 14: Positive sentiment of agri-food industry related to Brexit, RoI, 2016 and 2017
                                    • Figure 15: Reasons RoI agri-food sector believes Brexit could offer positive opportunity, RoI, July 2017
                                  • UK sees largest fall in business confidence
                                    • Figure 16: Global business activity expectations in selected markets, March 2017 and June 2017
                                  • Brexit uncertainty driving Sterling weakness against the euro
                                    • Figure 17: Exchange rates involving Sterling and the euro, January 2016-September 2017
                                  • Weaker Pound an opportunity for NI tourism
                                    • Brexit concerns boosting Irish passport applications in GB and NI
                                      • Figure 18: Number of Irish passport applications from consumers in Great Britain, January-August 2016 and 2017
                                      • Figure 19: Number of Irish passport applications from consumers in NI, January-August 2016 and 2017
                                    • RoI consumers expect economic growth to continue
                                      • Figure 20: How consumers think the general economic condition of the country will change over the next 12 months, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                    • Personal finances improving in RoI, mixed picture in NI
                                      • Figure 21: Financial health of Irish consumers, RoI, August 2016 and September 2017
                                      • Figure 22: Financial health of Irish consumers, NI, August 2016 and September 2017
                                    • Consumers in RoI expect personal finances to improve
                                      • Figure 23: Thinking specifically about your own personal financial situation, do you think that it will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                    • Inflation remains low in RoI…
                                      • Figure 24: Consumer price index vs food inflation, RoI, January 2016-August 2017
                                    • …but rising in the UK and NI
                                      • Figure 25: Consumer price index vs food inflation and average earnings, UK (including NI), January 2016-September 2017
                                    • Hard Brexit provides job opportunities for Dublin
                                      • Dublin bidding to host EU agencies leaving UK post-Brexit
                                        • EU ends roaming charges but Brexit has implications for mobile use in Ireland
                                          • GDPR and the UK’s Data Protection Bill
                                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                            • NI consumers worse off financially
                                              • Most consumers unsure about Brexit, NI most likely to be worried
                                                • Cost of living the main Brexit concern for consumers
                                                  • Few consumers taking advantage of cross-border opportunities
                                                    • Spending on clothes still important despite Brexit uncertainty
                                                      • Local food and drink important post-Brexit
                                                      • The Consumer – Financial Situation

                                                          • Most consumers’ finances remain the same over the last year
                                                            • Figure 26: How consumers describe their finances compared to a year ago, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                          • Gen-Xers’ finances most likely to be the same
                                                            • Figure 27: Consumers who think that their finances are the same compared to a year ago, by gender and age, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                          • Lower-income households feeling the squeeze
                                                            • Figure 28: Consumers who think that they are a little bit worse off financially compared to a year ago, by gross annual household income, RoI, September 2017
                                                            • Figure 29: Consumers who think that they are financially worse off compared to a year ago, by gross annual household income, NI, September 2017
                                                        • The Consumer – Personal Situation

                                                            • Irish consumers not sure how Brexit will impact them in the future
                                                              • Figure 30: How consumers feel Brexit will impact their future personal situation, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                            • Men unchanged in their view of Brexit’s impact on their lives
                                                              • Figure 31: Consumers who are unchanged about how they feel Brexit will impact their future personal situation, by gender, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                            • Working and unemployed consumers worried about Brexit
                                                              • Figure 32: Consumers who are worried about how Brexit will impact their future personal situation, by working status, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                            • Parents unsure about Brexit implications
                                                              • Figure 33: Consumers who are unsure about how Brexit will impact their future personal situation, by presence of children in the household, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                          • The Consumer – Impact on the Economy

                                                              • Most consumers neither positive nor negative on Brexit impact
                                                                • Figure 34: What effect consumers think Brexit will have on the economy, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                              • Students least likely to think Brexit will have no career impact
                                                                • Figure 35: Consumers who think Brexit will have neither a positive nor a negative impact on their career prospects, by working status, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                              • Heavy internet users least concerned about negative cost of living impact
                                                                • Figure 36: Consumers who think Brexit will have a somewhat negative impact on the cost of living, by daily internet usage, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                              • Young consumers positive on Brexit impact on unemployment
                                                                • Figure 37: Consumers who think Brexit will have a somewhat positive impact on unemployment, by age, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                            • The Consumer – Cross-border Activities

                                                                • Exchange rate changes have caused little increase in cross-border activity
                                                                  • Figure 38: Cross-border activities undertaken by consumers in the last 12 months, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                • Cross-border short breaks
                                                                  • Figure 39: If consumers have taken more or fewer cross-border short breaks in the last 12 months, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                • Grocery shopping more likely with consumers along the border
                                                                  • Figure 40: Consumers who have shopped for groceries more in NI in the last 12 months, by region, RoI, September 2017
                                                                • Mobile data usage highest among younger consumers
                                                                  • Figure 41: If consumers have used their mobile data more when crossing the border in the last 12 months, by gender and age, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                              • The Consumer – Spending Intentions

                                                                  • Clothing a key spending area
                                                                    • Figure 42: Areas where consumers have spent money in the last three months, and future spending intentions, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                  • Clothing a key priority for women
                                                                    • Figure 43: Consumers who have spent money on clothing in the last three months, by gender, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                  • A third of consumers have added to their savings
                                                                    • Figure 44: Consumers who have added to their savings in the last three months, by socio-economic class, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                  • NI consumers less likely to be booking future holidays
                                                                    • Figure 45: Consumers who have booked a holiday in the last three months and plan to do so in the next three months, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                    • Figure 46: Locations visited by consumers for their last short break overseas, NI and RoI, September 2015
                                                                  • A quarter of consumers planning to buy expensive meals in the near future
                                                                    • Figure 47: Consumers who have gone out for an expensive meal in the last three months and plan to do so in the next three months, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                • The Consumer – Attitudes towards Brexit

                                                                    • Local goods important to consumers post-Brexit
                                                                      • Figure 48: Agreement with statements relating to Brexit, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                    • More local products in supermarkets appeals to women
                                                                      • Figure 49: Agreement with the statement ‘I think more locally sourced products from the UK/Ireland should be available in supermarkets’, by gender, NI and RoI, September 2017
                                                                    • Supporting local food and drink industry post-Brexit important to rural communities
                                                                      • Figure 50: Agreement with the statement ‘It will be more important to support local food/drink producers after Brexit’, by location, NI, September 2017
                                                                      • Figure 51: Agreement with the statement ‘It will be more important to support local food/drink producers after Brexit’, by location, RoI, September 2017
                                                                    • Weak Pound will see consumers from RoI border counties visit NI for groceries
                                                                      • Figure 52: Agreement with the statement ‘If the Pound continues to be weak then I will shop in NI for groceries’, by location, RoI, September 2017
                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                    • Data sources
                                                                      • Generational cohort definitions
                                                                        • Abbreviations

                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                        To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                        Brexit - One Year Later - Ireland - October 2017

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