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Cake and Cake Bars - UK - June 2012

“There are opportunities for cake manufacturers and particularly those within the smaller cakes segment to boost their suitability for sharing by launching products in sharing bags or pouches, which would also improve cakes’ portability and convenience for on-the-go eating.”

– Chris Wisson, Senior Food Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How can cake operators balance the demand for health and indulgence?
  • Should cake operators be looking to tap into kids’ snacking?
  • Can cake brands follow the example of other snacking markets?
  • What opportunities exist for cakes and cake bars in terms of shareability?
  • Can in-store bakeries (ISBs) provide additional avenues for growth?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: UK retail sales of cakes and cake bars, by segment, 2009-12
            • Forecast
              • Figure 2: Forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2007-17
            • Market factors
              • Cakes and cake bars gain users despite falling numbers of snackers
                • Health becomes an issue to take note of
                  • Low consumer confidence sees consumers making concession
                    • Operators under pressure from rising production costs
                      • Home baking represents a threat to the take-home market
                        • Population changes present both opportunities and threats
                          • Companies, brands and innovation
                            • Own-labels dominate market sales
                              • Figure 3: Estimated brand shares in the cakes and cake bars market, 2011
                            • Brands continue to struggle to assert themselves
                              • Own-labels also driving the market in terms of NPD
                                • Adspend reaches new heights in 2011
                                  • The consumer
                                    • User numbers on the rise
                                      • Small cakes vs large cakes
                                        • Price is the most important consideration when buying cakes
                                          • Figure 4: Choice factors when buying cakes and cake bars, April 2012
                                        • The majority of users prioritise flavour over calorie content
                                          • Figure 5: Users' attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, April 2012
                                        • What we think
                                        • Issues in the Market

                                            • How can cake operators balance the demand for health and indulgence?
                                              • Should cake operators be looking to tap into kids’ snacking?
                                                • Can cake brands follow the example of other snacking markets?
                                                  • What opportunities exist for cakes and cake bars in terms of shareability?
                                                    • Can in-store bakeries (ISBs) provide additional avenues for growth?
                                                    • Future Opportunities

                                                        • A Simple Balance for Health
                                                          • Make it Mine
                                                            • 2015: Brand Intervention
                                                            • Internal Market Environment

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Falling numbers of Brits claim to snack
                                                                  • Figure 6: Snacking between meals, 2009-11
                                                                • Satisfying hunger is the most popular reason to snack
                                                                  • Figure 7: Reasons for snacking – weekdays and weekends, 2011
                                                                • Large numbers of adults continue to treat themselves
                                                                    • Figure 8: Trends in agreement with statements on the enjoyment of food, 2007-11
                                                                  • Growing public focus on health…
                                                                    • …with obesity now a notable problem
                                                                      • Figure 9: Trends in Body Mass Index segments, 2007-11
                                                                      • Figure 10: Agreement with statements regarding diet and health, 2011
                                                                      • Figure 11: Trends in agreement with statements on checking food labels, 2007-11
                                                                  • Broader Market Environment

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • No improvements to consumer confidence in sight
                                                                        • Figure 12: Consumer Confidence Index, monthly, January 2007-April 2012
                                                                        • Figure 13: RPI, detailed indices for food and cake/biscuits, January 2011- April 2012
                                                                      • Rising commodity prices impacting upon retail prices
                                                                        • Figure 14: Consumer price indices – CPI annual % change, 1997-2012
                                                                      • Demographic changes create opportunities and threats
                                                                        • Figure 15: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2012-17
                                                                      • Socio-economic group E may hold the key to sustained growth
                                                                        • Figure 16: Changes in the adult socio-economic structure of the UK population, 2012-17
                                                                    • Competitive Context

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Cakes and cake bars one of the few snack markets to struggle in recent years…
                                                                          • Figure 17: Performance of selected markets competing with cakes and cake bars, 2007-11
                                                                        • …despite user numbers rising
                                                                          • Figure 18: Trends in usage of selected foods competing with cakes and cake bars, 2007-11
                                                                        • Home baking also proving to be a growing threat
                                                                        • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                          • Strengths
                                                                            • Weaknesses
                                                                            • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Supermarkets are drivers of NPD in a fragmented market environment
                                                                                  • Figure 19: Product launches within the UK cakes and cake bars market, by manufacturer, 2011
                                                                                • Brands come under increasing pressure from the private labels
                                                                                  • Figure 20: Product launches within the UK cakes and cake bars market, own-label vs brands, 2008-12
                                                                                • Operators polish their ethical credentials
                                                                                  • Figure 21: Product launches within the UK cakes and cake bars market, by leading claims, 2011
                                                                                • Chocolate remains the flavour of choice
                                                                                  • Figure 22: Product launches within the UK cakes and cake bars market, by flavour, 2011
                                                                                • Key themes
                                                                                  • Seasonality continues to play an important role
                                                                                    • Premium cakes look to appeal to consumers looking to indulge
                                                                                      • Vegetable cakes such as carrot cake continue to grow
                                                                                        • Companies use more ethical and environmentally friendly packaging for their products
                                                                                          • Operators look to promote their British credentials
                                                                                          • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • The cakes and cake bars market shows signs of recovery
                                                                                                • Figure 23: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
                                                                                              • Forecast
                                                                                                • Figure 24: Forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2007-17
                                                                                              • Small cakes and cake bars
                                                                                                • Figure 25: Forecast of UK retail value sales of small cakes and cake bars, 2007-17
                                                                                              • Large/occasion cakes
                                                                                                • Figure 26: Forecast of UK retail value sales of large/occasion cakes, 2007-17
                                                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                                                              • Segment Performance

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Small cakes and cake bars account for 60% of market sales
                                                                                                    • Figure 27: UK retail sales of cakes and cake bars, by segment, 2009-12
                                                                                                  • Small cakes/cake bars halts its sales decline
                                                                                                    • Figure 28: UK retail value sales of small cakes, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
                                                                                                    • Figure 29: UK retail value sales of small cakes, by type, 2010-12
                                                                                                  • Large/occasion cakes achieve minor growth in 2012
                                                                                                    • Figure 30: UK retail value sales of large cakes, at current and constant prices, 2007-17
                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Estimated UK retail value sales of large cakes, by type, 2010-12
                                                                                                  • Gluten-free shows signs of growth
                                                                                                  • Market Share

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Own-labels continue to dominate the cakes and cake bars market
                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Estimated brand shares in the cakes and cake bars market, 2010-12
                                                                                                      • Brands continue to struggle
                                                                                                      • Companies and Products

                                                                                                        • United Biscuits (UB)
                                                                                                          • Premier Foods
                                                                                                            • McCambridge Group
                                                                                                              • Finsbury Food Group
                                                                                                                • The Fabulous Bakin’ Boys (FBB)
                                                                                                                  • Greencore
                                                                                                                  • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Adspend jumps up in 2011
                                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Main monitored media advertising spend in the UK cakes and cake bars market, 2008-12
                                                                                                                      • Own-labels dominate the advertising landscape
                                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Leading advertisers in the UK cakes and cake bars market, 2008-12
                                                                                                                        • Mr Kipling comes to the fore
                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Leading brands advertised in the UK cakes and cake bars market, 2011
                                                                                                                        • TV advertising dominates
                                                                                                                            • Figure 36: Main monitored media advertising spend in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by media type, 2008-12
                                                                                                                        • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Supermarkets dominate sales within the cakes market
                                                                                                                              • Figure 37: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, by outlet type, 2009-11
                                                                                                                            • Discounters achieve steady growth…
                                                                                                                              • …while independents come under increasing pressure
                                                                                                                              • Consumer – Trends in Usage

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • The market continues to attract new users
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Usage of fresh and packeted cakes, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Trends in frequency of eating fresh or packeted cakes, 2009-11
                                                                                                                                    • Cake consumers adopt wide repertoires
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: Repertoire of types of cakes and cake bars eaten, April 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Afternoon and evening usage grows in popularity
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Trends in time of snacking on cakes and biscuits, 2010 and 2011
                                                                                                                                  • Consumer – Usage of Small Cakes

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • Small cakes eaten weekly by three in ten adults
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 42: Types of small cakes and cake bars eaten, April 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Cake bars/slices are the most popular type of small cakes
                                                                                                                                        • Snacking at home is the most popular occasion for eating small cakes
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Occasions for eating small cakes within the last six months, April 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Consumer – Usage of Large Cakes

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Large cakes are a less frequent purchase
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Types of large cakes and cake bars eaten, April 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Whole cakes and sponge rolls face challenges in boosting usage
                                                                                                                                            • Large cakes are popular for special occasions but also as desserts
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Occasions for eating large cakes within the last six months, April 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Consumer – Increasing Usage

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Better-for-you cakes provide the best route for increasing usage
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 46: Factors that would encourage usage of cakes and cake bars, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Cost also acts as a notable deterrent
                                                                                                                                                  • Taste and freshness are additional means of boosting usage
                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • Price is the most important factor when buying cakes and cake bars
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 47: Choice factors when buying cakes and cake bars, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                        • Flavour and freshness also play notable roles
                                                                                                                                                          • Brand name and health are minority considerations
                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                              • The majority of users prioritise flavour over calorie content
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 48: Users' attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Flavour is of highest importance but health also plays a role
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 49: Users' attitudes towards flavour and health in cakes and cake bars, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Majority prioritise taste over health
                                                                                                                                                                • Poor taste perception curbs interest in healthier cakes
                                                                                                                                                                  • Small size makes for easy calorie control in cakes
                                                                                                                                                                    • The market is well positioned to tap into kids’ snacking and sharing
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Users' attitudes towards moderating consumption of cakes and cake bars, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Cakes and cake bars suffer from a poor value-for-money image
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Users' attitudes towards the cost of cakes and cake bars, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                      • Five target groups
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 52: Target groups for cakes and cake bars, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Enthusiasts (17%)
                                                                                                                                                                        • Price-conscious (18%)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Traditionalists (18%)
                                                                                                                                                                            • Health-aware (20%)
                                                                                                                                                                              • Disengaged (27%)
                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Issues in the Market

                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Snacking between meals, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements on eating/cooking habits, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 55: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements on eating/cooking habits, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements on eating/cooking habits, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements on eating/cooking habits, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Trends in reasons for snacking – weekdays and weekends, 2009-11
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Reasons for snacking on weekdays, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Reasons for snacking on weekends, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Competitive Context

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 61: Usage of selected snacks competing with cakes and cake bars, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 62: Usage of selected snacks competing with cakes and cake bars, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK small cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 65: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK large/occasion cakes market, by value, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 66: Leading advertisers in the UK cakes and cake bars market, 2008-12
                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Consumer – Trends in Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 67: Usage of cakes, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 68: Trends in frequency of eating fresh or packeted cakes, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 69: Frequency of eating fresh or packeted cakes, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 70: Time of snacking on cakes and biscuits, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 71: Trends in types of cakes eaten, 2008-11
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 72: Types of cakes eaten, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 73: Repertoire of types of cakes and cake bars eaten, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Small Cakes

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 74: Types of small cakes and cake bars eaten, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 75: usage of at least one type of small cake (net), by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 76: Usage of cake bars and wrapped cake slices, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 77: Usage of individual cakes, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 78: Usage of mini cakes, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 79: Usage of in-store bakery cakes, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 80: Usage of doughnuts, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 81: Occasions for eating small cakes within the last six months, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Large Cakes

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 82: Types of large cakes and cake bars eaten, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 83: Usage of at least one type of large cake (net), by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 84: Usage of slab/loaf/regional cakes, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 85: Usage of whole cakes and sponge rolls, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 86: Usage of birthday cakes and party bakes, by frequency, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 87: Occasions for eating large cakes within the last six months, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Consumer – Increasing Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 88: Factors that would encourage usage of cakes and cake bars, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 89: Factors that would encourage usage of cakes and cake bars, by demographics, April 2012 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 90: Choice factors when buying cakes and cake bars, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 91: Choice factors when buying cakes and cake bars, by demographics, April 2012 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 92: Choice factors when buying small cakes and cake bars, by frequency of consumption, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 93: Choice factors when buying large cakes and cake bars, by frequency of consumption, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 94: Users' attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 95: Agreement with the statements ‘Flavour is more important to me than calorie content’ and ‘In moderation, cakes and cake bars are an acceptable part of children’s diets’, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 96: Agreement with the statements ‘Baking cakes at home is an effective way of saving money’ and ‘Cakes are a good snack to share (eg at work)’, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 97: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer smaller cakes/cake bars as a means of controlling calorie intake’ and ‘I tend to read the nutritional information on the packaging’, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 98: Agreement with the statements ‘I think that healthier cakes also have less flavour/taste’ and ‘Mini formats allow me to indulge on a more frequent basis’, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 99: Agreement with the statements ‘I think that cakes and cake bars are good value for money’ and ‘Branded cakes taste better than standard own-label ones’, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 100: Agreement with the statement ‘I am interested in cakes with nutritional benefits (eg high in fibre)’, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 101: Users' attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by frequency of consumption, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 102: Target groups, by demographics, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 103: Types of cakes eaten, by target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 104: Occasions for eating small cakes, by target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 105: Occasions for eating large cakes, by target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 106: Factors that would encourage usage, by target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 107: Choice factors, by target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 108: Grocery shopping habits, by target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 109: Attitudes towards healthy lifestyles, by target groups, April 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 110: Users’ attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by target groups, April 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                • Anthony Alan Foods Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                • Cadbury Trebor Bassett
                                                                                                                                                                                • Credit Suisse Group
                                                                                                                                                                                • Finsbury Food Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                • Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., The
                                                                                                                                                                                • Greencore Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                • Hillsdown Holdings Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                • Kellogg Company of GB Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                • Lightbody Celebration Cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                • London Stock Exchange plc
                                                                                                                                                                                • Mars Incorporated
                                                                                                                                                                                • McCambridge Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                • Memory Lane Cakes Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                • Northern Foods Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                • PAI Partners
                                                                                                                                                                                • Premier Foods plc
                                                                                                                                                                                • RHM Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                • Thorntons Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                • United Biscuits
                                                                                                                                                                                • Weight Watchers Ltd. (UK)

                                                                                                                                                                                Cake and Cake Bars - UK - June 2012

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