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Cakes and Cake Bars - UK - June 2010

This report examines the UK retail market for ready-to-eat (RTE) cakes. It includes packaged (or wrapped) and unpackaged (or unwrapped) cakes that are kept at ambient temperatures. The market can be broadly segmented into large cakes, occasion cakes and individual cakes.

  • The cake & cake bars market grew strongly over the last five years to reach £1.6bn in 2009, with value sales driven by rising ingredient costs and the premiumisation trend.
  • Portability has emerged as a key issue for many consumers, particularly the 3 million parents with children under 4-years-old and the 3.8 million with children aged 5 to 9 years old, which has helped increase sales of cake bars and individually wrapped cakes, the fastest growing segment of the market.
  • Reformulations along the lines of the fruit-based Evoid Cola, could help drive further penetration of the school lunch box market. Individually wrapped cakes and cake bars have already benefited from the perception that they are less unhealthy than crisps or chocolate.
  • Cakes targeted at specific occasions such as Christmas or birthdays have out-performed the market, benefiting from a growing consumer interest in celebrations such as Easter and Halloween.
  • Half of consumers like to treat themselves to cake from time to time. But this sentiment is more pronounced among older consumers and those who tend to eat/serve cake for special occasions and afternoon tea.
  • Cakes are established snacks for the home but have yet to reach the same level of penetration in the on-the-go snacking market. The snacking at work occasion has the potential to broaden the existing cake user base if wrapped cakes and cake bars are given greater prominent in office vending machines.

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Table of contents

  1. Issues in the Market

      • Key themes
        • Definitions
          • Abbreviations
          • Future Opportunities

            • Countering the home baking trend
              • Oh-so-fashionable
                • Have your cake and eat it too
                • Market in Brief

                  • Buoyant market in face of recession
                    • Innovation in the face of market stagnation
                      • Going small
                        • Indulgence remains important to many consumers
                          • The future
                          • Internal Market Environment

                            • Key points
                              • Healthy eating rules...
                                • Figure 1: Healthy lifestyle trends, January 2009-January 2010
                                • Figure 2: Eating habit trends, January 2009-January 2010
                              • …and brings changes to consumption patterns
                                • Food to go
                                  • Let’s celebrate
                                    • Home baking is on the up
                                    • Broader Market Environment

                                      • Key points
                                        • Raw material prices climb upwards
                                          • Children’s market hit by new standards
                                            • Ageing population may restrict certain opportunities
                                              • Figure 3: Trends in UK age structure, by gender, 2005-15
                                            • One-person households continue to grow
                                              • Figure 4: Breakdown of UK household sizes, 2005-15
                                          • Competitive Context

                                            • Key points
                                              • Competition from confectionery and snack products is high
                                                • Figure 5: Trends in confectionery and snacks usage, 2005-09
                                              • Health – a key battleground
                                                • Figure 6: Retail sales of cakes and cake bars with competing healthy products, 2005-09
                                              • Eating whilst on the go – an emerging opportunity
                                                • Figure 7: Types of snacks eaten on the go most commonly, 2006 and 2008
                                              • Indulgence – cakes continue as a winner
                                                • Figure 8: Retail sales of cakes and cake bars with competing indulgent snacks, 2005-09
                                            • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market

                                              • Strengths
                                                • Weaknesses
                                                • Who’s Innovating?

                                                  • Key points
                                                    • Innovation dips during 2009...
                                                      • Figure 9: Cake and cake bar variant launches, 2007-09
                                                    • ...with own-label boosted by onset of recession
                                                      • Figure 10: Cake and cake bar variant launches, 2007-09
                                                    • Chocolate continues as most popular filling
                                                      • Figure 11: Cake and cake bar launches, by type of flavouring, 2007-09
                                                    • Drive to be natural dominates development activity
                                                      • Figure 12: Cake and cake bar launches, by product feature, 2007-09
                                                    • Own-label continues to develop
                                                      • Brands experiment with new flavours
                                                        • Health benefits
                                                          • Mixing it with confectionery
                                                          • Market Value and Forecast

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • Retail sales experience solid growth...
                                                                • Figure 13: Retail sales of cakes and cake bars, 2005-15
                                                              • ...as consumers downsize
                                                                • Figure 14: Retail sales of cakes, by type, 2007 and 2009
                                                              • Market polarisation
                                                                • Market forecast
                                                                • Segment Performance

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Wrapped cakes
                                                                      • Large cakes suffer as consumers downsize
                                                                        • Figure 15: Retail sales of large cakes, 2005-10
                                                                      • Rolls and slabs perform best
                                                                        • Figure 16: Retail sales of large cakes, by type, 2007 and 2009
                                                                      • Occasion cakes continue to remain popular
                                                                        • Figure 17: Retail sales of occassion cakes, 2005-10
                                                                      • Individual cakes represent a buoyant market
                                                                        • Figure 18: Retail sales of individual cakes and cake bars, 2005-10
                                                                      • Small is beautiful
                                                                        • Figure 19: Retail sales of small cakes, by type, 2007 and 2009
                                                                      • Unwrapped cakes
                                                                        • Popularity of unwrapped cakes continues
                                                                          • Figure 20: Retail sales of unwrapped cakes, 2005-10
                                                                      • Market Share

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Increasing polarisation evident between major brand and own-label sectors
                                                                            • Figure 21: Manufacturer and brand value shares in wrapped cakes, 2007 and 2009
                                                                          • Premier Foods dominates wrapped cakes market
                                                                            • United Biscuits suffers from lacklustre performance
                                                                              • Other brands
                                                                                • Own-label grows share
                                                                                • Companies and Products

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Premier Foods
                                                                                      • Mr Kipling
                                                                                        • Cadbury
                                                                                          • Lyons
                                                                                            • United Biscuits
                                                                                              • McVitie’s
                                                                                                • Greencore
                                                                                                  • Finsbury Food Group
                                                                                                    • Memory Lane Cakes
                                                                                                      • Lightbody
                                                                                                        • Anthony Alan Foods
                                                                                                          • Campbells Cakes
                                                                                                            • The Fabulous Bakin’ Boys
                                                                                                              • Others
                                                                                                              • Brand Elements

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • Brand map
                                                                                                                        • Figure 22: Attitudes towards and consumption/service of cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
                                                                                                                      • Brand qualities of cake and cake bar brands
                                                                                                                        • Comfort and indulgence top traits, Cadbury leads
                                                                                                                          • Figure 23: Personalities of various cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
                                                                                                                        • Experience of cake and cake bar brands
                                                                                                                          • Cadbury most popular, Gü and Krispy Kreme have lower profile
                                                                                                                            • Figure 24: Consumer consumption/service of various cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
                                                                                                                          • Brand consideration for cake and cake bar brands
                                                                                                                            • Family favourites most considered, but interest present in premium
                                                                                                                              • Figure 25: Consideration of various cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
                                                                                                                            • Brand satisfaction for cake and cake bar brands
                                                                                                                              • Mass brands most satisfying, but premium names have fervent fans
                                                                                                                                • Figure 26: Satisfaction with various cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
                                                                                                                              • Brand commitment to cake and cake bar brands
                                                                                                                                • Premium brands to be avoided?
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Commitment to various cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
                                                                                                                                • Brand intentions for cake and cake bar brands
                                                                                                                                  • Traditional brands have best retention
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Future usage intentions for various cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Brand recommendation for cake and cake bar brands
                                                                                                                                    • Mass brands most recommended
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 29: Recommendation of various cake and cake bar brands, March 2010
                                                                                                                                      • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 30: Attitudes towards the Gü brand, March 2010
                                                                                                                                      • Mr Kipling
                                                                                                                                        • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Attitudes towards the Mr Kipling brand, March 2010
                                                                                                                                        • Weight Watchers
                                                                                                                                          • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 32: Attitudes towards the Weight Watchers brand, March 2010
                                                                                                                                          • Cadbury
                                                                                                                                            • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 33: Attitudes towards the Cadbury brand, March 2010
                                                                                                                                          • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Onset of recession seems to bypass promotional support for cakes and cake bars
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Main media advertising spend on cakes and cake bars, 2006-09
                                                                                                                                              • Short-term campaigns dictate much of the movement in this market
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Advertising expenditure on cakes and cake bars, 2006-09
                                                                                                                                              • Television and press advertising as main channels for advertisers
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 36: Advertising expenditure on cakes and cake bars, by channel, 2009
                                                                                                                                              • Below-the-line activity
                                                                                                                                              • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Cake and cake bar sales, by outlet, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                                                                                • Multiples increasingly come to dominate the sale of cakes and cake bars
                                                                                                                                                  • Smaller retailers see sales stagnate
                                                                                                                                                    • Other outlets record mixed success
                                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Usage of Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • The topline
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Eat/serve fresh/unwrapped cakes, wrapped cakes and cake bars, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Nuances between the cake users
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Eat/serve fresh/unwrapped cakes, wrapped cakes and cake bars, by demographic profile, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Deserters?
                                                                                                                                                        • The Consumer – Occasion and Frequency

                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                            • The importance of occasion
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 40: When eat/serve fresh/unwrapped, wrapped and cake bars, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                            • Usage divide
                                                                                                                                                              • In-home formalities
                                                                                                                                                                • In-home snacking – a platform for all
                                                                                                                                                                  • Get back in the box
                                                                                                                                                                    • Planning those impulses
                                                                                                                                                                      • Snacking at work
                                                                                                                                                                        • Occasion boosts frequency
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Frequency of eating/serving fresh/unwrapped cakes, wrapped cakes and cake bars, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                        • Heavy use dynamics
                                                                                                                                                                          • Breaking the weekly routine
                                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Attitudes towards Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 42: Attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                              • Impulse or duress?
                                                                                                                                                                                • Muddying the waters
                                                                                                                                                                                  • The relevance of health in cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Competition
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Hang the expense
                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Repertoire and Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Occasion repertoire
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Limited occasion use
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Beyond the front door
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer typologies
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 45: Attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, by target groups, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Snacking elsewhere – 49%
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Health over indulgence – 19%
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Let them eat cake – 32%
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Usage of Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Eat/serve fresh/unwrapped cakes, wrapped cakes and cake bars, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer – Occasion and Frequency

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 47: Most popular when eat/serve fresh/unwrapped cakes, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Next most popular when eat/serve fresh/unwrapped cakes, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Most popular when eat/serve wrapped cakes, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Next most popular when eat/serve wrapped cakes, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Most popular when eat/serve cake bars, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 52: Next most popular when eat/serve cake bars, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 53: Most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Next most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Next most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Frequency of eating/serving fresh/unwrapped cakes, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Frequency of eating/serving wrapped cakes, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Frequency of eating/serving cake bars, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes towards Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Most popular attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Next most popular attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, by most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 63: Attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, by next most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, by most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 65: Attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, by next most popular fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Repertoire and Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Target groups, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, by demographics, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 69: Fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, by repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 70: Fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, by repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 71: When eat/serve fresh/unwrapped cakes, by target groups, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 72: When eat/serve wrapped cakes, by target groups, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 73: When eat/serve cake bars, by target groups, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped cakes eaten/served, by target groups, March 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 75: Repertoire of number of occasions on which fresh/unwrapped/wrapped/cake bars eaten/served, by target groups, March 2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Anthony Alan Foods Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Avana Bakeries Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Betty's and Taylors of Harrogate Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • British Market Research Bureau (BMRB)
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cadbury Schweppes Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Dr Oetker
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Finsbury Food Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Food Standards Agency
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Government Actuary's Department (GAD)
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Greencore Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Kantar Media
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Kate's Cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Krispy Kreme UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Lightbody Celebration Cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Manor Bakeries Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Matthew Walker
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Memory Lane Cakes Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • mmO2 plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Nestlé UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Research in Motion Uk Ltd.
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Somerfield
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Starbucks Coffee Company UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Stiletto Foods
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • T-Mobile (UK) Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Village Bakery Melmerby
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Thorntons Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • United Biscuits
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Virgin Media Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Virgin Mobile
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Vodafone Group Plc (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Walt Disney Company, The
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Weight Watchers Ltd. (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Wm Morrison Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Cakes and Cake Bars - UK - June 2010

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