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Cakes and Cake Bars - UK - June 2011

This report examines the UK retail market for ready-to-eat (RTE) cakes. It includes packaged (or wrapped) and unpackaged (or unwrapped) cakes that are kept at ambient temperatures. The market can be broadly segmented into large cakes, occasion cakes and individual cakes.

  • Large cakes include whole cakes, slab or cut cakes, sponge sandwich cakes, large Swiss rolls, large pies and tarts.
  • Occasion cakes include celebration cakes (eg birthday cakes) and seasonal cakes (eg Christmas cakes).
  • Individual cakes include small cakes, tarts, slices, cake bars, mini rolls and fruit pies. These are individual portions/slices that are packaged individually within a box (eg six apple pies/12 Bakewell tarts), with some being individually wrapped (eg mini rolls, cake bars).
  • This report defines cake bars as individually wrapped cakes in a bar format. They may come in single packs, or in packs of two to six bars.

The report focuses on the wrapped cakes market. Data on unwrapped products, including those sold in high street bakeries, in-store bakeries and convenience stores, are included in the report. However, as many of the channels through which unwrapped cakes are sold, such as fêtes and cake sales, are informal and unregulated, it is difficult to obtain accurate sales figures for these distribution channels.

Excluded

Chilled and frozen cakes, or cakes/cake slices sold from the chiller/freezer in supermarkets

Jaffa Cakes – they are covered in Mintel’s report Biscuits, Cookies and Crackers – UK, April 2011.

Products covered in Mintel’s report Bread and Baked Goods – UK, January 2011, including:

Traditional British morning goods including toasting products, such as English muffins, crumpets and pikelets, scones, teacakes, malt and fruit loaves, buns and other fruited products, and hotplate lines such as pancakes and griddle scones, waffles and potato cakes.

Foreign recipe products include: croissants, pain au chocolat and pain au raisin, Danish pastries, brioches, bagels, American sweet muffins, and semi-sweet bread lines of foreign origin.

Doughnuts.

Flapjacks are also excluded.

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What's included

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Excluded
          • Abbreviations
          • Issues in the Market

              • Has the trend towards artisan cakes and bakeries contributed to growth in the take-home market?
                • How much potential is there for out of home cake consumption?
                  • How can occasions drive growth?
                    • Can healthier variants help to broaden the consumer base?
                      • What are the limitations for premiumisation in the market?
                      • Future Opportunities

                          • Fauxthenticity
                            • Play Ethic
                            • Executive Summary

                                • The market
                                  • Figure 1: Cakes and cake bars market size and forecast, 2006-16
                                • A tough 2010
                                  • The future
                                    • Market factors
                                      • Moderate consumption
                                        • Ageing population
                                          • Balancing indulgence with other determining factors
                                            • Companies, brands and innovation
                                              • Figure 2: Estimated market share of wrapped cakes and cake bars, 2010
                                            • Own-label leverages power of scale
                                              • Figure 3: Attitudes towards and usage of cake and cake bar brands, April 2011
                                            • NPD helps to drive the market
                                              • Premier Foods looks to TV
                                                • The consumer
                                                  • Figure 4: Types of cakes and cake bars eaten or bought in the last 12 months, April 2011
                                                • Wrapped cakes/cake bars largely dominate the market
                                                  • Women opt for special occasions, men for snacking
                                                    • Figure 5: Net difference* between most popular occasions for eating/serving cakes/cake bars, by gender, April 2011
                                                  • What we think
                                                  • Internal Market Environment

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • Consumption is geared towards occasional usage and afternoon snacking
                                                        • Figure 6: Trends in frequency of eating fresh or wrapped cakes, 2010
                                                        • Figure 7: Times when snacking on cakes and biscuits, 2010
                                                      • Balancing health with indulgence
                                                        • Figure 8: Change in agreement with selected lifestyle statements on diet, 2006-10
                                                      • Fighting obesity remains a legislative issue
                                                        • Snacking provides opportunities for cakes/cake bars
                                                          • Figure 9: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements on eating/cooking habits, 2006-10
                                                        • Fuelled by self-gifting
                                                          • Figure 10: Trends in reasons for snacking, 2010
                                                      • Broader Market Environment

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Rising commodity costs
                                                            • Figure 11: RPI detailed indices, biscuits and cakes, January 2010-March 2011
                                                          • Consumer confidence
                                                            • Figure 12: Gfk NOP Consumer confidence index, January 2006-April 2011
                                                          • Demographic factors affecting the market
                                                            • Growth in 25-34s will provide a boost
                                                              • Figure 13: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2006-11 and 2011-16
                                                            • There is a need to appeal to the growing AB population
                                                              • One-person households prove a challenge
                                                                • Figure 14: UK households, by percentage of population, 2006-16
                                                            • Competitive Context

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Competing with other snacking categories
                                                                  • Figure 15: UK retail sales value of selected snack categories, by value, 2010
                                                                • Popularity of home baking poses a threat
                                                                  • Figure 16: UK retail sales value of home baking products, 2005-10
                                                              • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                • Strengths
                                                                  • Weaknesses
                                                                  • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Own-label and brands competing over NPD
                                                                        • Figure 17: New product launches in the cakes and cake bars market UK, by own-label vs brands, January 2008-March 2011
                                                                      • Smaller format sizes offer indulgence and portability
                                                                        • Attempting to replicate cupcakes’ success
                                                                          • Chocolate brands entering the market
                                                                            • Catering to seasonal occasions
                                                                              • Themed celebration cakes target children’s market
                                                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • The market sees a decline in growth
                                                                                    • Figure 18: UK retail sales of cakes and cake bars, by value, 2006-16
                                                                                  • Future growth in the market
                                                                                    • Figure 19: Cakes and cake bars market size and forecast, 2006-16
                                                                                  • Segmentation
                                                                                    • Figure 20: Wrapped cakes and cake bars market size and forecast, 2006-16
                                                                                    • Figure 21: Unwrapped cakes and cake bars market size and forecast, 2006-16
                                                                                  • Methodology
                                                                                  • Segment Performance

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Figure 22: UK retail value sales of cakes/cake bars, by type, 2008-10
                                                                                    • Wrapped cakes
                                                                                      • Small cakes experience a decline in sales
                                                                                        • Figure 23: UK retail value sales and forecast of small/individual cakes/cake bars, 2006-16
                                                                                        • Figure 24: UK retail value sales of small/individual cakes/cake bars, by type, 2008-10
                                                                                      • Large cakes see sales stagnate
                                                                                        • Figure 25: UK retail value sales and forecast of large cakes, 2006-16
                                                                                        • Figure 26: UK retail value sales of large cakes, by type, 2008-10
                                                                                      • The influence of seasonal occasions
                                                                                        • Figure 27: UK retail value sales and forecast of occasion cakes, 2006-16
                                                                                      • Unwrapped cakes
                                                                                        • Figure 28: UK retail value sales and forecast of unwrapped cakes/cake bars, 2006-16
                                                                                    • Market Share

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Major brands struggle with own-label over share
                                                                                          • Figure 29: Estimated manufacturer and brand value shares in wrapped cakes/cake bars, 2009-10
                                                                                      • Companies and Products

                                                                                          • Figure 30: Major players in the cakes and cake bars market, UK, 2011
                                                                                        • Premier Foods
                                                                                          • United Biscuits
                                                                                            • Finsbury Food Group
                                                                                              • The Fabulous Bakin’ Boys
                                                                                                • Greencore
                                                                                                  • McCambridge
                                                                                                  • Brand Research

                                                                                                    • Brand map
                                                                                                        • Figure 31: Attitudes towards and usage of cake and cake bar brands, April 2011
                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Attitudes by cake and cake bar brand, April 2011
                                                                                                      • Brand personality
                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Cake and cake bar brand personality – macro image, April 2011
                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Cake and cake bar brand personality – micro image, April 2011
                                                                                                      • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                        • Brand experience
                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Cake and cake bar brand usage, April 2011
                                                                                                          • Figure 36: Satisfaction with various cake and cake bar brands, April 2011
                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Consideration of cake and cake bar brands, April 2011
                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Consumer perceptions of current cake and cake bar brand performance, April 2011
                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Cake and cake bar brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, April 2011
                                                                                                        • Brand index
                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Cake and cake bar brand index, April 2011
                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Cake and cake bar brand index vs. recommendation, April 2011
                                                                                                        • Target group analysis
                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Target groups, April 2011
                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Cake and cake bar brand usage, by target groups, April 2011
                                                                                                        • Group One – The Conformists
                                                                                                          • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                            • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                              • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                                • Group Five – The Individualists
                                                                                                                • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • 2010 sees a return to advertising investment
                                                                                                                      • Premier Foods dominates spend
                                                                                                                          • Figure 46: Advertising expenditure by brand, in the UK cakes and cake bars market, 2006-10
                                                                                                                      • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Supermarkets leverage scale of distribution
                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Food, drink and tobacco – estimated channels of distribution, 2009
                                                                                                                          • M&S and Asda stores prove popular
                                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Index of supermarkets used by those eating/serving cakes and cake bars, (Average = 100), April 2011
                                                                                                                          • Specialists offer indulgence
                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Usage

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                • Figure 49: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months, April 2011
                                                                                                                              • Penetration at over three fifths but geared towards infrequent usage
                                                                                                                                • Core base of cakes/cake bars remains women and the under-35s
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 50: Index of types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months, by gender, age, socio-economic group and annual household income, (Average = 100), April 2011
                                                                                                                                • Appealing to the larger households
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 51: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months, by household size, April 2011
                                                                                                                                • Extensive crossover between users
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 52: Crossover in types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months, April 2011
                                                                                                                              • The Consumer – Occasions

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Snacking the key motivator
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Most popular occasions for eating/serving cakes/cake bars, April 2011
                                                                                                                                  • Need to do more to drive out of home snacking
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Index of most popular occasions for eating/serving cakes/cake bars, by gender, age, socio-economic status and annual household income, (Average = 100), April 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Women opt for special occasions, men for snacking
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Net difference* between most popular occasions for eating/serving cakes/cake bars, by gender, April 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Self-gifting popular among smaller households
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Those eating/serving cakes/cake bars ‘as a treat’, by household size, April 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Defined occasions can help to drive usage
                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Behaviour

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Adventurous on flavour, apathetic on brand
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Statements on purchasing/eating cakes/cake bars, by age, April 2011
                                                                                                                                          • Promotions popular among consumers
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 58: Statements on purchasing/eating cakes/cake bars, by annual household income, April 2011
                                                                                                                                          • Threat from home baking
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 59: Index of agreement with the statement ‘I prefer to make cakes from scratch’, by gender, age, socio-economic group and annual household income, (Average = 100), April 2011
                                                                                                                                          • Balancing health and indulgence
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 60: Statements on purchasing/eating cakes/cake bars, April 2011
                                                                                                                                          • An alternative option
                                                                                                                                            • Format innovation could help to encourage out of home usage
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Index of agreement with statements on purchasing/eating cakes/cake bars, by occasions when eating/serving cakes/cake bars, (Average = 100), April 2011
                                                                                                                                            • And appeal to one-person households
                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Women are more engaged with the category
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Index of agreement with statements on cakes/cake bars, by gender, (Average = 100), April 2011
                                                                                                                                                • Providing moderate indulgence to consumers
                                                                                                                                                  • Addressing unhealthy perceptions
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 63: Index of agreement with the statement ‘Cakes/cake bars are unhealthy’, by gender, age, socio-economic group and annual household income, (Average = 100), April 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes towards occasions
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Statements on cakes/cake bars, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                    • Consumers are unconvinced on value-for-money positioning
                                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Targeting Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 65: Target groups based on attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                        • Reluctant
                                                                                                                                                          • Engaged Snackers
                                                                                                                                                            • Moderate
                                                                                                                                                              • Disengaged
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 66: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2011 prices, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 67: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 68: UK households, by size, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 69: Best- and worst-case forecasts for cakes and cake bars, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Brand usage, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 71: Brand commitment, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Brand momentum, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 73: Brand diversity, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 74: Brand satisfaction, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 75: Brand recommendation, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 76: Brand attitudes, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 77: Brand image - Macro image, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 78: Brand image - Micro image, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 79: Profile of target groups, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 80: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 81: Brand usage, by target groups, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                • Brand index
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 82: Brand index, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Consumer Usage

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 83: Types of cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 84: Wrapped cakes/slices/cake bars/fruit pies eaten/bought in the last 12 months by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 85: Unwrapped cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 86: Large cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Consumer Occasions

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 86: Popular reasons for eating/serving cakes/cake bars, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 87: Popular reasons for eating/serving cakes/cake bars, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 88: Most popular reasons for eating/serving cakes/cake bars, by wrapped cakes/slices/cake bars/fruit pies eaten/bought in the last 12 months, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 89: Most popular reasons for eating/serving cakes/cake bars by unwrapped cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 90: Most popular reasons for eating/serving cakes/cake bars by large cakes/cake bars eaten/bought in the last 12 months, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – The Consumer – Behaviour

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 91: Attitudes towards statements on purchasing/eating cakes/cake bars, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 92: Agreement with the statements ‘I tend to buy the same brands of cakes/cake bars’ and ‘I like to try new flavours of cakes/cake bars’, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 93: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to see more flavours of cakes/cake bars available’ and ‘I prefer to make cakes from scratch’, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 94: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to see a wider variety of sizes available in cakes/cake bars’ and ‘I eat cakes/cake bars as an alternative to other snacks eg chocolate bars’, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 95: Agreement with the statements ‘I have switched to buying own label cakes/cake bars as a way of saving money’ and ‘I would like to see more cakes/cake bars with premium ingredients eg superfruits, extra chocolate’, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 96: Agreement with the statements ‘I tend to eat cakes at the weekend when i can indulge myself’ and ‘I buy multipacks and eat the individual cakes/cake bars outside of my home’, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 97: Agreement with the statements ‘I buy low fat/sugar varieties whenever possible’ and ‘I tend to buy cakes/cake bars on promotion’, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Consumer Attitudes Towards Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 98: Attitudes towards statements on cakes/cake bars, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 99: Agreement with the statements ‘Cakes/cake bars are unhealthy’ and ‘Cakes/cake bars are a great way to indulge’, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 100: Agreement with the statements ‘cakes/cake bars are fine in moderation’ and ‘cakes/cake bars are suitable for lunch-boxes’, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 101: Agreement with the statements ‘Cakes/cake bars offer value for money’ and ‘Own label cakes/cake bars taste just as good as branded’, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 102: Agreement with the statements ‘Cakes/cake bars are suitable as a dessert’ and ‘Cakes are only suitable for special occasions’, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 103: Agreement with the statements ‘Cake bars are suitable for portion control’ and ‘Cakes are an essential part of afternoon tea’, by demographics, April 2011

                                                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                              • Aldi Stores Ltd (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                              • Anthony Alan Foods Limited
                                                                                                                                                              • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                              • Bank of England
                                                                                                                                                              • Betty's and Taylors of Harrogate Ltd
                                                                                                                                                              • Blackstone Group (The)
                                                                                                                                                              • British Retail Consortium
                                                                                                                                                              • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                              • Council of Mortgage Lenders
                                                                                                                                                              • Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
                                                                                                                                                              • Finsbury Food Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                              • Food Standards Agency
                                                                                                                                                              • Government Actuary's Department (GAD)
                                                                                                                                                              • Inter Link Foods Plc
                                                                                                                                                              • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                              • Kantar Media
                                                                                                                                                              • Konditor & Cook
                                                                                                                                                              • Kraft Foods UK
                                                                                                                                                              • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                              • Nestlé UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                              • Northern Foods Plc
                                                                                                                                                              • Premier Foods plc
                                                                                                                                                              • School Food Trust
                                                                                                                                                              • Somerfield
                                                                                                                                                              • Steve's Cakes
                                                                                                                                                              • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                              • The Hummingbird Bakery Ltd
                                                                                                                                                              • The Ministry of Cake
                                                                                                                                                              • Thorntons Plc
                                                                                                                                                              • United Biscuits
                                                                                                                                                              • Waitrose
                                                                                                                                                              • Weight Watchers Ltd. (UK)

                                                                                                                                                              Cakes and Cake Bars - UK - June 2011

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