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Cakes and Cake Bars - UK - June 2014

“Cake companies can look to completely new formats in their NPD (New Product Development), given the interest in these from one in four users. For example, companies could create their own versions of the hybrid sweet treats (eg cronut, duffin) which have garnered a lot of media attention in the foodservice arena.”

– Emma Clifford, Senior Food Analyst

Some issues covered in the report include:

  • Cake brands can encourage a wider range of usage occasions through marketing
  • Exciting innovation is needed to help heighten consumer engagement with the category
  • Opportunities for better-for-you cakes through sugar alternatives and healthier ingredients

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definitions
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: UK retail value sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2009-19
            • Market factors
              • Strong competition dents demand for cakes
                • The popularity of home baking stifles sales of shop-bought cakes
                  • The growth in over-55s continues to hinder the market
                    • Companies, brands and innovation
                      • Own-label accounts for over half of the cakes/cake bars market
                        • Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2013/14*
                      • Own-label continues to dominate new launches
                        • No end to the rise in adspend in cakes
                          • The consumer
                            • Cakes enjoy strong family appeal
                              • Figure 3: Types of cakes/cake bars bought or eaten in the past six months, April 2014
                            • Cakes are most commonly eaten as a treat
                              • Figure 4: Reasons for eating cakes/cake bars, April 2014
                            • Cakes stand out for being good for sharing and filling
                              • Figure 5: Most common qualities associated with different types of snacks/desserts, April 2014
                              • Figure 6: Other qualities associated with different types of snacks/desserts, April 2014
                            • One in three stock up on promotions
                              • Figure 7: Attitudes towards buying cakes/cake bars, April 2014
                            • New flavours hold strong appeal
                              • Figure 8: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, April 2014
                            • What we think
                            • Issues and Insights

                                • Cake brands can encourage a wider range of usage occasions through marketing
                                  • The facts
                                    • The implications
                                      • Exciting innovation is needed to help heighten consumer engagement with the category
                                        • The facts
                                          • The implications
                                            • Opportunities for better-for-you cakes through sugar alternatives and healthier ingredients
                                              • The facts
                                                • The implications
                                                • Trend Application

                                                    • Trend: Sense of the Intense
                                                      • Trend: Make it Mine
                                                        • Mintel Futures: Brand Intervention
                                                        • Market Drivers

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Cakes and cake bars are losing out to other snack sectors
                                                              • Figure 9: UK retail value sales performance of selected markets competing with cakes and cake bars, 2012-13
                                                            • The boom in home baking erodes cake sales
                                                              • Health concerns dampen demand for cakes
                                                                • The ageing population and growth in small households present challenges
                                                                • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                  • Strengths
                                                                    • Weaknesses
                                                                    • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Own-label continues to dominate new launches
                                                                          • Figure 10: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, own-label versus branded, 2009-14
                                                                        • Asda, Morrisons and Tesco take the lead in NPD in 2013
                                                                          • Figure 11: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, by company, 2013
                                                                          • Figure 12: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, by company, 2009-14
                                                                        • Cross-category inspiration
                                                                          • Cadbury Mini Rolls take inspiration from the ice cream category
                                                                            • Mondelēz moves into kids’ cakes with the Barny brand
                                                                              • A jump in the prevalence of the ‘no additives/preservatives’ claim in 2013
                                                                                • Figure 13: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, by claim, 2009-14
                                                                              • Low levels of ‘better-for-you’ NPD…
                                                                                • …although ‘diet’ products risk a backlash
                                                                                  • Supermarkets expand their gluten-free offering
                                                                                    • Seasonal events inspire NPD, with Halloween gaining traction
                                                                                    • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Volume and value sales in decline
                                                                                          • Figure 14: UK retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, by value and volume, 2009-19
                                                                                        • The future
                                                                                          • Figure 15: UK retail volume sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2009-19
                                                                                          • Figure 16: UK retail value sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2009-19
                                                                                        • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                        • Segment Performance

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • A shift away from large cakes towards single-serve products
                                                                                              • Figure 17: UK retail value sales of cakes and cakes bars, by segment, 2011-13
                                                                                              • Figure 18: UK retail volume sales of cakes and cakes bars, by segment, 2011-13
                                                                                            • Seasonal cakes suffer the biggest decline
                                                                                            • Market Share

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Own-label accounts for over half of the cakes/cake bars market
                                                                                                  • Figure 19: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2013/14*
                                                                                                  • Figure 20: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value and volume, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                                • Losses for Premier Foods’ leading brands
                                                                                                  • McVitie’s, Fabulous Bakin’ Boys are all in decline
                                                                                                    • Soreen benefits from its healthier positioning and grows its share
                                                                                                    • Companies and Products

                                                                                                        • Figure 21: Selected leading companies and their brands in the cakes and cake bars market, 2013
                                                                                                      • United Biscuits (UBUK)
                                                                                                        • Background
                                                                                                          • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                            • Brand communication and promotion
                                                                                                              • Premier Foods
                                                                                                                • Background
                                                                                                                  • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                                    • Brand communication and promotion
                                                                                                                      • Samworth Brothers (McCambridge Group)
                                                                                                                        • Background
                                                                                                                          • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                                            • Brand communication and promotion
                                                                                                                              • Finsbury Food Group
                                                                                                                                • Background
                                                                                                                                  • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                                                    • The Fabulous Bakin’ Boys (FBB)
                                                                                                                                      • Background
                                                                                                                                        • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                                                        • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • No end to the rise in adspend in cakes
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 22: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in total cakes and cake bars market, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                            • Morrisons and Aldi lead adspend
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 23: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in total cakes and cake bars market, by top 10 brands in 2013, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                            • Mondelēz supports the launch of Barny range to see it become the top-spending brand
                                                                                                                                              • Premier Foods cuts back on support for Mr Kipling brand
                                                                                                                                                • A big push from McVitie’s in 2014
                                                                                                                                                • The Consumer – Types of Cakes/Cake Bars Purchased or Eaten

                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                    • Cakes enjoy strong family appeal
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 24: Types of cakes/cake bars bought or eaten in the past six months, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                      • Cakes enjoy strong family appeal
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 25: Consumers who have purchased any cakes/cake bars in the last six months, by presence of children and household size, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                        • Single-serve cakes hold strong appeal
                                                                                                                                                          • Half of adults have bought ISB cakes
                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Perceptions of Different Types of Snacks/Desserts

                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                              • Cakes stand out for being good for sharing and filling
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 26: Most common qualities associated with different types of snacks/desserts, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Other qualities associated with different types of snacks/desserts, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                • Convenience is central to the appeal of cake bars and wrapped slices
                                                                                                                                                                  • Ice cream stands out for perception of exciting flavours
                                                                                                                                                                  • The Consumer – Reasons for Eating Cakes/Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                      • Cakes are most commonly eaten as a treat
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 28: Reasons for eating cakes/cake bars, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                        • Special occasions spur usage among 30% of adults
                                                                                                                                                                          • Over-55s most inclined to have cake as a dessert and with a hot drink
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 29: Consumers who eat cakes/cake bars as an alternative to dessert and to accompany a hot drink, by age, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                          • Under-35s most likely to associate cake with a mood boost
                                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Buying Cakes/Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                              • One in three stock up on promotions
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 30: Attitudes towards buying cakes/cake bars, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                • Notable demand for new formats among under-45s
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Baking shows can provide NPD inspiration
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Sizeable pool of interest in sugar alternatives
                                                                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                        • New flavours hold strong appeal
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 31: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                          • A third of parents see cakes as a suitable snack for children
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Added-value opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                              • A barrier to overcome for vegetable cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 32: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK volume sales of cakes and cake bars, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 33: Best- and worst-case forecasts for UK value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – The Consumer – Types of Cakes/Cake Bars Purchased or Eaten

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Types of cakes/cake bars bought or eaten in the past six months, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 35: Most popular types of cakes/cake eaten in the past six months, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Next most popular types of cakes/cake bars eaten in the past six months, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Next most popular types of cakes/cake bars bought in the past six months, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Repertoire of types of cakes/cake bars eaten in the past six months, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Repertoire of types of cakes/cake bars eaten in the past six months, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Reasons for Eating Cakes/Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 41: Reasons for eating cakes/cake bars, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Most popular reasons for eating cakes/cake bars, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Next most popular reasons for eating cakes/cake bars, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Perceptions of Different Types of Snacks/Desserts

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 44: Words associated with different types of snacks/desserts, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Most popular words associated with cakes, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: Next most popular words associated with cakes, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Most popular words associated with cake bars and wrapped cake slices, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Next most popular words associated with cake bars and wrapped cake slices, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Most popular words associated with sweet biscuits, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 50: Next most popular words associated with sweet biscuits, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 51: Most popular words associated with chocolate bars, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Next most popular words associated with chocolate bars, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Most popular words associated with ice cream, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Next most popular words associated with ice cream, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Buying Cakes/Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 55: Attitudes towards buying cakes/cake bars, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Most popular attitudes towards buying cakes/cake bars, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 57: Next most popular attitudes towards buying cakes/cake bars, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Most popular attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by demographics, April 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 60: Next most popular attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by demographics, April 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Apple, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Blackstone Group (The)
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Cadbury Schweppes Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Finsbury Food Group Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Galaxy Nutritional Foods, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Haribo Dunhills Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Hillsdown Holdings Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Intersnack UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                • LEGOLAND Windsor Park Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Lightbody Celebration Cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Mars Incorporated
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Marvel Entertainment
                                                                                                                                                                                                • McCambridge Foods Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Memory Lane Cakes Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Nestlé UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                • PAI Partners
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Premier Foods plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                • RHM Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Samworth Brothers
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Tate & Lyle
                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Fabulous Bakin’ Boys
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Thorntons Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                • United Biscuits
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Walt Disney Company, The
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Weight Watchers Ltd. (UK)

                                                                                                                                                                                                Cakes and Cake Bars - UK - June 2014

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