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Cakes and Cake Bars - UK - March 2016

“Opportunities are ripe for operators to explore healthier formulations, with significant unmet demand for such products. In this context, superfood ingredients –including ancient grains, coconut oil and vegetables – can play an important role, tapping the current focus on ‘positive nutrition’.

– Emma Clifford, Senior Food Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Scope to build on morning consumption through breakfast products
  • Cakes boasting superfoods can capitalise on interest in ‘positive nutrition’
  • Encouraging at-home personalisation can boost gifting

“Opportunities are ripe for operators to explore healthier formulations, with significant unmet demand for such products. In this context, superfood ingredients –including ancient grains, coconut oil and vegetables – can play an important role, tapping the current focus on ‘positive nutrition’.

– Emma Clifford, Senior Food Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Scope to build on morning consumption through breakfast products
  • Cakes boasting superfoods can capitalise on interest in ‘positive nutrition’
  • Encouraging at-home personalisation can boost gifting

This report examines the UK retail market for cakes and cake bars. The market size includes sales through all retail channels including direct to consumer. Mintel defines the market as comprising packaged (wrapped) cakes which are kept at ambient temperatures. Sales of cakes from in-store bakeries are only included where they carry a bar code.

The market can be broadly segmented into small cakes/cake bars/special occasion cakes and large cakes.

‘Small cakes and cake bars’ include wrapped individual cakes either sold singly, or as multipacks or assortments, as well as seasonal and occasion cakes. These include cake bars, slices, pies, tarts and mini cakes. ‘Large cakes’ include wrapped cakes intended for sharing, Swiss roll, whole cakes, slabs and loaves. It includes malt loaves such as Soreen.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Value sales grow 2.5% in 2015
              • Figure 1: UK value retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2010-20
            • Market factors
              • Sugar concerns haven’t been the downfall of cakes
                • Ageing population could stifle growth
                  • Home baking trend reduces demand for prepared cakes
                    • Companies and brands
                      • Mr Kipling boasts the most traditional and family-oriented image
                        • Own-label continues to have the upper hand
                          • Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2015/16*
                        • Companies look to bite-sized formats and after-dinner occasions
                          • Adspend continues to rise in 2015
                            • The consumer
                              • Cakes continue to enjoy high penetration
                                • Figure 3: Frequency of eating cakes/cake bars, by type, December 2015
                              • Snacking fuels usage of cakes
                                • Figure 4: Usage occasions for packaged cakes/cake bars, December 2015
                              • Fresh cakes are most appealing as gifts
                                • Figure 5: Factors deemed important when buying a packaged cakes as a gift, December 2015
                              • Strong demand for alternatives to refined sugar
                                • Figure 6: Interest in innovation in cakes, December 2015
                              • A lack of cakes sold in single portions
                                • Figure 7: Attitudes towards cakes, December 2015
                              • What we think
                              • Issues and Insights

                                • Scope to build on morning consumption through breakfast products
                                  • The facts
                                    • The implications
                                      • Cakes boasting superfoods can capitalise on interest in ‘positive nutrition’
                                        • The facts
                                          • The implications
                                            • Encouraging at-home personalisation can boost gifting
                                              • The Facts
                                                • The Implications
                                                • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                  • Value sales grow 2.5% in 2015
                                                    • Small cakes lead
                                                      • Sugar concerns haven’t been the downfall of cakes
                                                        • Ageing population could stifle growth
                                                          • Home baking trend reduces demand for prepared cakes
                                                          • Market Size and Segmentation

                                                            • Value sales grow 2.5% in 2015
                                                              • Figure 8: UK value retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2010-20
                                                            • The future
                                                              • Figure 9: UK value retail sales and forecast of cakes and cake bars, 2010-20
                                                            • Small cakes lead
                                                              • Figure 10: UK value retail sales of cakes and cake bars, by segment, 2013-15
                                                            • Growth in large cakes in 2015
                                                              • Celebration cakes are on the up
                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                • Sugar concerns pose a challenge
                                                                  • Improving the health profile of cakes
                                                                    • Ageing population could stifle growth
                                                                      • Home baking trend reduces demand for prepared cakes
                                                                      • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                        • Own-label continues to have the upper hand
                                                                          • Premier Foods dwarfs other manufacturers in branded cakes
                                                                            • Strong growth for Thorntons
                                                                              • Supermarkets extend premium ranges
                                                                                • Brands and retailers look to bite-sized formats
                                                                                  • Premier Foods and UB look to after-dinner occasions
                                                                                    • Soreen takes aim at the breakfast market
                                                                                      • Adspend continues to rise in 2015
                                                                                      • Market Share

                                                                                        • Own-label continues to have the upper hand
                                                                                          • Figure 11: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2015/16*
                                                                                          • Figure 12: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                          • Figure 13: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                        • Premier Foods steady at the top
                                                                                          • Innovation from McVitie’s has not translated into an uplift
                                                                                            • Strong growth for Thorntons
                                                                                            • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                              • Supermarkets extend premium ranges
                                                                                                • Figure 14: New product launches in the UK cake, pastries and sweet baked goods market, by private-label and branded, 2011-15*
                                                                                              • Brands and retailers look to bite-sized formats
                                                                                                • Premier Foods and UB look to after-dinner occasions
                                                                                                  • More large cakes are added to the Mr Kipling portfolio
                                                                                                    • Soreen takes aim at the breakfast market
                                                                                                      • Inspiration from the cocktail category…
                                                                                                        • …and milkshakes
                                                                                                          • Growth in gluten-free
                                                                                                            • Limited L/N/R innovation
                                                                                                              • Manufacturers’ hands are tied when it comes to sugar
                                                                                                                • Low-fat options could be further explored
                                                                                                                  • Oats boost health credentials
                                                                                                                    • Cakes continue to attract brands from other categories
                                                                                                                    • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                      • Adspend continues to rise in 2015
                                                                                                                        • Figure 15: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and cake bars, 2011-15
                                                                                                                      • Premier leads spend, supporting its Mr Kipling and Cadbury Cakes brands
                                                                                                                          • Figure 16: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and cake bars, by advertiser, 2011-15
                                                                                                                        • Mondelēz focuses on the Barny brand
                                                                                                                          • New TV advertising push for Soreen in 2016
                                                                                                                            • Retailers step up investment, particularly at Christmas
                                                                                                                              • Nielsen Media Research coverage
                                                                                                                              • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                  • What you need to know
                                                                                                                                    • Brand map
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 17: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, December 2015
                                                                                                                                    • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 18: Key metrics for selected brands, December 2015
                                                                                                                                    • Brand attitudes: Cadbury cakes are well-trusted, and win on perceptions of quality
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 19: Attitudes, by brand, December 2015
                                                                                                                                    • Brand personality: Soreen lacks excitement
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 20: Brand personality – macro image, December 2015
                                                                                                                                    • Mr Kipling boasts the most traditional and family-oriented image
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 21: Brand personality – micro image, December 2015
                                                                                                                                    • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                      • Thorntons stands out on indulgence and specialness
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 22: User profile of Thorntons Cakes, December 2015
                                                                                                                                      • Cadbury Cakes delivers a fun factor, and elicits trust
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 23: User profile of Cadbury Cakes, December 2015
                                                                                                                                      • McVitie’s Cakes are accessible and have a family slant
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 24: User profile of McVitie’s Cakes, December 2015
                                                                                                                                      • Mr Kipling seen to be traditional and family-orientated
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 25: User profile of Mr Kipling, December 2015
                                                                                                                                      • Soreen stands out on health grounds
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 26: User profile of Soreen, December 2015
                                                                                                                                      • The Fabulous Bakers
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 27: User profile of The Fabulous Bakers, December 2015
                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                      • Cakes continue to enjoy high penetration
                                                                                                                                        • Under-35s and families are the core users of most cakes
                                                                                                                                          • Snacking fuels usage of cakes
                                                                                                                                            • Scope to build on morning consumption
                                                                                                                                              • Fresh cakes are most appealing as gifts
                                                                                                                                                • Strong demand for alternatives to refined sugar
                                                                                                                                                  • Interest in ‘positive nutrition’ extends to cakes
                                                                                                                                                    • More exciting flavours needed to attract young consumers
                                                                                                                                                      • A lack of cakes sold in single portions
                                                                                                                                                        • Versatility with serving temperature would be well-received
                                                                                                                                                        • Usage of Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                          • Cakes continue to enjoy high penetration
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 28: Frequency of eating cakes/cake bars, by type, December 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • ISB cakes are most commonly eaten
                                                                                                                                                            • Cake bars and slices win in terms of frequency of usage
                                                                                                                                                              • Under-35s and families are the core users of most cakes
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Overall usage of cakes/cake bars in the last month, by type, by age group, December 2015
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 30: Usage of cakes/cake bars at least once a week, by type, by presence of children in household, December 2015
                                                                                                                                                            • Usage Occasions

                                                                                                                                                              • Snacking fuels usage of cakes…
                                                                                                                                                                • …With mid-afternoon the most popular time
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 31: Usage occasions for packaged cakes/cake bars, December 2015
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 32: Usage occasions, by age group, December 2015
                                                                                                                                                                • 45% of women eat cake as a dessert
                                                                                                                                                                  • Scope to build on morning consumption
                                                                                                                                                                  • Factors Deemed Important when Buying a Cake as a Gift

                                                                                                                                                                    • Fresh cakes are most appealing as gifts
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Factors deemed important when buying a packaged cakes as a gift, December 2015
                                                                                                                                                                      • Packaging can play an important role in aesthetics
                                                                                                                                                                        • Premium ingredients are key
                                                                                                                                                                          • Artisanal factors can create standout for gifting
                                                                                                                                                                          • Interest in Innovation in Cakes

                                                                                                                                                                            • Strong demand for alternatives to refined sugar
                                                                                                                                                                              • Natural sweeteners not a Limited option in cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Interest in innovation in cakes, December 2015
                                                                                                                                                                              • Interest in ‘positive nutrition’ extends to cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                • Ancient grains have big potential in cakes
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Raw ingredients can bolster health perceptions
                                                                                                                                                                                    • More exciting flavours needed to attract young consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sweet and savoury flavours are highly popular
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Extreme flavours would also be a draw
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Interest in flavour innovation in cakes, December 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cocktail and botanical flavours can build sophistication
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cakes can play on mood-enhancement linked to herbal teas
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Attitudes towards Cakes

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Smaller formats push up usage frequency
                                                                                                                                                                                              • A lack of cakes sold in single portions
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 36: Attitudes towards cakes, December 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Versatility with serving temperature would be well-received
                                                                                                                                                                                                • The time is right to bring hybrid cakes to the retail sector
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Launch Activity and Innovation
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Share of product launches within the UK cake, pastries and sweet goods market, by selected claim, 2011-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Market segmentation
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 38: UK value retail sales of small cakes and cake bars, by sub-segment, 2013-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: UK value retail sales of large cakes, by sub-segment, 2013-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Best- and worst-case forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of cakes and cake bars
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Forecast Methodology

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                        To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Cakes and Cake Bars - UK - March 2016

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