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Cakes and Cake Bars - UK - March 2017

“The market has remained resilient amidst the sugar debate; however, sugar reductions are now expected by the government. While there is some openness towards low-sugar cakes, many put taste ahead of healthiness in this market. Smaller formats remain a key avenue to explore as they are widely seen as a good alternative to cutting sugar content.”

Anita Winther, Research Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Taste trumps healthiness for most cake users, marked openness to portion control
  • Scope for cakes to harness 'positive nutrition' given interest from users
  • Self-treating fuels cake purchases but is rarely seen in marketing

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Cakes post value growth despite war on sugar
              • Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2011-21
            • Small cakes dominate, celebration cakes grow
              • Figure 2: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, by segment, 2015 and 2016
            • Pressures for sugar reduction mount
              • Home baking remains popular
                • Brexit spells end of deflation and growing real consumer incomes
                  • Companies and brands
                    • Own-label grows market share
                      • Figure 3: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                    • NPD targets bites and on-the-go
                      • Adspend dips in 2016
                        • The consumer
                          • Cakes remain a popular, but rare, treat
                            • Figure 4: Frequency of eating cakes/cake bars, by cake type, December 2016
                          • Self-treating fuels cake purchases
                            • Figure 5: Reasons for buying cakes and cake bars, December 2016
                          • Sizeable interest in low-sugar cakes
                            • Figure 6: Factors that would encourage increased usage of cakes/cake bars, December 2016
                          • Taste trumps healthiness for most
                            • Figure 7: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, December 2016
                          • Cakes enjoy a positive image
                            • Figure 8: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with different types of sweet treats, December 2016
                          • What we think
                          • Issues and Insights

                            • Taste trumps healthiness for most cake users, marked openness to portion control
                              • The facts
                                • The implications
                                  • Scope for cakes to harness ‘positive nutrition’ given interest from users
                                    • The facts
                                      • The implications
                                        • Self-treating fuels cake purchases but is rarely seen in marketing
                                          • The facts
                                            • The implications
                                            • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                              • Value growth despite war on sugar
                                                • Inflation expected to support value sales
                                                  • Small cakes segment continues to dominate
                                                    • Celebration cakes see strong growth
                                                      • Sugar remains in the spotlight
                                                        • Brexit spells end of deflation and growing real consumer incomes
                                                        • Market Size, Forecast and Segmentation

                                                          • Value growth despite war on sugar
                                                            • Figure 9: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2011-21
                                                          • Inflation expected to support value sales
                                                              • Figure 10: Forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2011-21
                                                            • Forecast methodology
                                                              • Small cakes segment continues to dominate
                                                                • Celebration cakes see strongest growth
                                                                  • Figure 11: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, by segment, 2015 and 2016
                                                              • Market Drivers

                                                                • Sugar remains in the spotlight
                                                                  • The Childhood Obesity Strategy sets sugar reduction targets
                                                                    • Low-sugar cakes remain rare
                                                                      • High openness to smaller packs
                                                                        • Gluten-free continues to grow
                                                                          • Raw ingredients hope to bolster health perceptions
                                                                            • Home baking remains popular
                                                                              • Appeal of cake decorating
                                                                                • Figure 12: Frequency of baking cakes at home, December 2016
                                                                              • Cakes face steep competition from other sweet treats
                                                                                • An ageing population unlikely to benefit cake sales
                                                                                  • Brexit spells end of deflation and growing real consumer incomes
                                                                                    • Cost pressures prompt price rises
                                                                                      • Household incomes set to be squeezed
                                                                                      • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                                                        • Own-label grows market share
                                                                                          • Premier Foods sees mixed results
                                                                                            • Snacking formats support growth for Thorntons and Soreen
                                                                                              • Private label continues to lead NPD
                                                                                                • NPD targets bites and on-the-go
                                                                                                  • Adspend dips in 2016
                                                                                                  • Market Share

                                                                                                    • Own-label grows market share
                                                                                                      • Figure 13: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
                                                                                                    • Premier Foods sees mixed results
                                                                                                      • McVitie’s sales fall
                                                                                                        • Snacking formats support growth for Thorntons and Soreen
                                                                                                        • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                          • Private label continues to lead NPD
                                                                                                            • Figure 14: Share of new product launches in the UK cakes, pastries and sweet baked goods market*, by company (sorted by 2016), 2012-16
                                                                                                          • Premier Foods extends Cadbury Cake brand to appeal to young
                                                                                                            • Coco Pops launches Coco Bakes
                                                                                                              • Cake bites trend continues
                                                                                                                • Cake bites cater to health concerns and sharing occasions
                                                                                                                  • Soreen, McVitie’s and Premier among recent bite-size NPD
                                                                                                                    • Brands look to the on-the-go and impulse markets
                                                                                                                      • Mr Kipling and Mini Rolls launch in twin packs
                                                                                                                        • McVitie’s and Soreen look to on-the-go
                                                                                                                          • Seasonal activity remains high
                                                                                                                            • Cakes “fit for the Queen”
                                                                                                                            • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                              • Adspend dips in 2016
                                                                                                                                • Figure 15: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and cake bars, 2013-16
                                                                                                                              • Premier Foods unveils new campaign for Mr Kipling, supports Mini Rolls
                                                                                                                                • New campaign for Mr Kipling
                                                                                                                                  • Mr Kipling partakes in ITV’s 'Queen's 90th Birthday Ad Break'
                                                                                                                                    • Summer campaign for Cadbury Mini Rolls
                                                                                                                                      • An ‘Absolutely Fabulous’ partnership for Cadbury Amaze Bites
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 16: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and cake bars, by top 8 advertisers (sorted by 2016), 2013-16
                                                                                                                                      • Mondelēz and Kellogg's support kids’ ranges
                                                                                                                                        • New TV advertising push for Soreen Lunchbox Loaves
                                                                                                                                          • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                            • Cakes remain a popular, but rare, treat
                                                                                                                                              • Single-portion cakes are top choice
                                                                                                                                                • Self-treating is top reason for cake purchases
                                                                                                                                                  • Cakes are widely chosen as a snack
                                                                                                                                                    • Sizeable interest in low-sugar cakes
                                                                                                                                                      • ‘Positive nutrition’ can resonate in cakes
                                                                                                                                                        • Taste trumps healthiness for most, openness to smaller portions
                                                                                                                                                          • Cakes enjoy a positive image
                                                                                                                                                          • Usage of Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                            • Cakes remain a popular, but rare, treat
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 17: Frequency of eating cakes/cake bars, by cake type, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                            • Single-portion and smaller cakes most popular
                                                                                                                                                              • Cakes from in-store bakeries eaten by 57%
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 18: Frequency of eating cakes/cake bars baked in-store, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                              • Under-35s and families are core user groups
                                                                                                                                                                • Workplace “cake culture”
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 19: Usage of cakes/cake bars at least once a week, by type, by employment status, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                              • Reasons for Buying Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                                • Self-treating fuels cake purchases
                                                                                                                                                                  • 18% buy cakes for a mood boost
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 20: Reasons for buying cakes and cake bars, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                                  • 40% buy cakes to snack on
                                                                                                                                                                    • ‘Convenient’ snack factor should benefit individual cakes
                                                                                                                                                                      • Everyday occasions are key for cakes
                                                                                                                                                                      • Factors Encouraging Increased Usage of Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                                        • Sizeable interest in low-sugar cakes
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 21: Factors that would encourage increased usage of cakes/cake bars, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                                        • Limited scope for sweeteners in cakes
                                                                                                                                                                          • Sugar alternatives enjoy a better-for-you image…
                                                                                                                                                                            • …but also come with challenges
                                                                                                                                                                              • Cakes with benefits appeal
                                                                                                                                                                                • ‘Positive nutrition’ trend
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cakes offering nutrients appeal to one in five
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Attitudes towards Cakes and Cake Bars

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Taste trumps healthiness for the majority
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Averseness to recipe changes poses a challenge to sugar reduction
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Openness to “less but better”
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 22: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Breakfast cakes appeal to many
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Breakfast cakes would appeal widely
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Soreen is among rare UK examples
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Seasonal cakes attract interest
                                                                                                                                                                                                • In-store personalisation a good fit for seasonal flavours
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Qualities Associated with Types of Sweet Treats

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cakes enjoy a positive image
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 23: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with different types of sweet treats, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Whole/large cakes: good for sharing but not convenient
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Only 26% view individual cakes as an everyday treat
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 24: Qualities associated with different types of sweet treats, December 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 25: Total UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Market Segmentation

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 26: UK value retail sales of small cakes and cake bars, by sub-segment, 2015 and 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 27: UK value retail sales of large cakes, by sub-segment, 2015 and 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 28: Selected claims’ share of new product launches in the UK cakes, pastries and sweet baked goods market*, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Share of new product launches in the UK cakes, pastries and sweet baked goods market*, by launch type, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 30: Share of new product launches in the UK cakes, pastries and sweet baked goods market*, by brands and own-label, 2012-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                            To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Cakes and Cake Bars - UK - March 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                            US $2,570.96 (Excl.Tax)