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Carbonated Soft Drinks - UK - February 2009

Carbonates have a large, youthful constituency and the core consumers care least about the health issues that have latterly enveloped the market. Despite this, ‘healthier’ soft drinks have recorded far faster growth and NPD and marketing is trying hard to reposition fizzy drinks as ‘natural’ and ‘healthy’. This is helping carbonates to shed some of their acquired reputation as being ‘bad for you’. Nevertheless, the consumer base amongst adults and children has shrunk in the last few years.

Key report themes:

  • A huge market with slow growth and some loss of consumer base

  • The continuing ascendancy of colas over flavoured carbonates

  • The repositioning of carbonates as natural, and attempts to make them healthier

  • The massive importance of brand image and of communicating with core users via new media channels

  • Moving low calorie versions away from a ‘diet’ positioning to create more appeal amongst male drinkers.

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Table of contents

  1. Issues in the Market

      • Key themes
        • Definition
        • Future Opportunities

          • Take functionality on board
            • Play to your Strengths
            • Market in Brief

              • Size matters
                • Fighting fit?
                  • It’s the real thing
                    • The medium is the message
                      • Retail versus on-trade
                        • The future
                        • Internal Market Environment

                          • Key points
                            • The key trends
                              • The demonisation of the fizzy drink
                                • And Nanny steps in…
                                  • Healthy is as healthy does…
                                    • Figure 1: Trends for statements about health and diet, 2004-08
                                  • But core carbonates drinkers are not the most concerned
                                    • It’s only natural
                                      • Sugar-free increasing share
                                        • Soft drinking in the on-trade
                                          • Figure 2: Frequency of pub visiting for eating and drinking, 2006 and 2008
                                          • Figure 3: Trends for use of standard or low-calorie fizzy minerals/mixers for alcoholic drinks, 2004-08
                                          • Figure 4: Trends for which flavours of mixer are used for alcoholic drinks, 2004-08
                                      • Broader Market Environment

                                        • Key points
                                          • Summer? What summer?
                                            • Figure 5: average temperatures and total number of sunshine hours, UK, 2003-07
                                            • Figure 6: UK volme sales of carbonates and total hours of sunshine, 2003-07
                                          • The changing legislative climate
                                            • Population trends – favourable or not?
                                              • Figure 7: Structure of the UK population, by age, 2003-13
                                            • Opinion varies on the effects of recession
                                              • Figure 8: Trends in personal disposable income and consumer expenditure, in 2008 prices, 2003-13
                                          • Competitive Context

                                            • Key points
                                              • Healthier soft drinks are the stars
                                                • Figure 9: Carbonates and competing markets, by value, 2003-08
                                              • More competition for kids’ pocket money
                                                • Figure 10: Trends in how 7-10-year-olds spend their pocket money, 2003-07
                                            • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market

                                              • Strengths
                                                • Weaknesses
                                                • Who’s Innovating?

                                                  • Key points
                                                    • Just over half of NPD involves new product introductions
                                                      • No additives, please
                                                        • Figure 11: New product activity in carbonates, % by positioning, 2008
                                                      • Hold the sugar – but give us the best
                                                        • Coke leads the field – but niche suppliers are quick on their feet
                                                          • Trends in NPD
                                                            • Addressing the ‘natural’ trend
                                                              • Preventing loss of consumers to water and juices
                                                                • Tropicana hitches a ride
                                                                  • Packaging goes greener, too
                                                                    • Fairtrade Fizzies
                                                                      • Packaging-led NPD – a change is as good as a relaunch
                                                                        • Celebratory packaging for shelf-appeal
                                                                          • Playing the authenticity card
                                                                            • Organic makes its mark
                                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Big but hard to move
                                                                                  • Figure 12: UK value and volume sales of carbonates (on- and off-trade), 2003-13
                                                                                • The future of the market
                                                                                  • Forecast
                                                                                    • Premiumisation of market will prevent decline
                                                                                      • Figure 13: Average price paid per litre for carbonates, on- and off-trade, 2003-13
                                                                                    • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                    • Segment Performance

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Retail struggling due to discounting
                                                                                          • Figure 14: UK retail (off-trade) value and volume sales of carbonates, 2003-13
                                                                                          • Figure 15: UK retail value sales of carbonates, by type, 2006-08
                                                                                        • On-trade shows better growth
                                                                                          • Figure 16: UK on-trade value and volume sales of carbonates, 2003-13
                                                                                          • Figure 17: UK on-trade value sales of carbonates, by type, 2006-08
                                                                                      • Market Share

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Branded manufacturer shares
                                                                                            • Coca-Cola untouchable in retail, but Barr and Britivic do better
                                                                                              • Figure 18: Manufacturers’ retail value brand shares in carbonates, 2006-08
                                                                                            • On-trade led convincingly by Pepsi and Coca-Cola
                                                                                            • Companies and Products

                                                                                              • Coca-Cola Great Britain
                                                                                                • Britvic Soft Drinks
                                                                                                  • AG Barr
                                                                                                  • Brand Elements

                                                                                                      • Brand map
                                                                                                        • Figure 19: Attitudes and usage of carbonate brands, January 2009
                                                                                                        • Figure 20: Attitudes and usage of carbonate brands, January 2009
                                                                                                      • Coca-Cola
                                                                                                        • What the brand is trying to achieve
                                                                                                          • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                            • Figure 21: Attitudes towards the Coca-Cola brand, January 2009
                                                                                                          • Tango
                                                                                                            • What the brand is trying to achieve
                                                                                                              • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                • Figure 22: Attitudes towards the Tango brand, January 2009
                                                                                                              • R Whites
                                                                                                                • What the brand is trying to achieve
                                                                                                                  • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                    • Figure 23: Attitudes towards the R Whites brand, January 2009
                                                                                                                  • Pepsi
                                                                                                                    • What the brand is trying to achieve
                                                                                                                      • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                        • Figure 24: Attitudes towards the Pepsi brand, January 2009
                                                                                                                      • Fanta
                                                                                                                        • What the brand is trying to achieve
                                                                                                                          • What the consumer thinks
                                                                                                                            • Figure 25: Attitudes towards the Fanta brand, January 2009
                                                                                                                          • Brand qualities of carbonate brands
                                                                                                                            • 7UP beats Coke for refreshment, but Coke most fun
                                                                                                                              • Figure 26: Personalities of various carbonates brands, January 2009
                                                                                                                            • Experience of carbonate brands
                                                                                                                              • Colas preferred for regular drinking
                                                                                                                                • Figure 27: Consumer usage of various carbonate brands, January 2009
                                                                                                                              • Brand intentions for carbonate brands
                                                                                                                                • Coca-Cola keeping customers, Dr Pepper putting some off?
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Consideration of various carbonate brands, January 2009
                                                                                                                                • Brand momentum for carbonate brands
                                                                                                                                  • Coca-Cola still sparkling, 7UP going flat
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Momentum of various carbonate brands, January 2009
                                                                                                                                  • Brand satisfaction for carbonate brands
                                                                                                                                    • Coca-Cola most excellent, but Dr Pepper not all pep
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 30: Satisfaction with various carbonate brands, January 2009
                                                                                                                                    • Brand commitment to carbonate brands
                                                                                                                                      • Coke has greatest loyalty
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 31: Commitment to various carbonate brands, January 2009
                                                                                                                                      • Round up
                                                                                                                                      • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Brands get a lot for their money
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 32: Main monitored media above-the-line advertising spend on carbonates, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                          • Coke puts others in the shade
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 33: Main monitored media above the line advertising spend on carbonates, by advertiser, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                          • Advertising strategy
                                                                                                                                            • Stay young and beautifully streetwise
                                                                                                                                              • Marketing themes
                                                                                                                                                • In celebration of being young
                                                                                                                                                  • It’s a giveaway
                                                                                                                                                    • Quirkiness, fun and archness
                                                                                                                                                      • Brand heritage and tradition
                                                                                                                                                        • It’s Only Natural
                                                                                                                                                          • Give a little lurve…
                                                                                                                                                            • A question of taste
                                                                                                                                                              • Sisters are doing it for themselves…
                                                                                                                                                                • Prestige – it’s an image thing
                                                                                                                                                                  • Quantum of Zero
                                                                                                                                                                  • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                      • The multiples have it, on impulse
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: UK volume sales of carbonates, by outlet type, 2006-08
                                                                                                                                                                      • On-trade share falls and pubs lose out
                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Usage

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • Fewer adults drink carbonates
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Trends for usage of fizzy drinks and cola, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                                            • Fruit down, but adult fizzies up
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Trends for preferred packaging format of fizzy drinks, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                                            • Brands more popular – but relatively more people go for own-label
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 37: Trends for consumption of own-label versus branded fizzy soft drinks, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                                            • Kids drinking ‘healthier’ alternatives, especially water
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 38: Trends for consumption of fizzy and other drinks amongst kids, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                                            • Girls going for the ‘healthier’ options, but they lose favour from the age of 10
                                                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Attitudes and Motivations

                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                • Health concerns drive non-drinking
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Consumption of carbonated drinks, by brand, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Fun and taste remain most important
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: Attitudes towards carbonates, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Half drink on an evening out, mostly to replace alcohol
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 41: When consumers drink carbonates, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Diet options for the ladies
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Burger and cola is a ‘treat’
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Not so convenient for on-the-go
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Meal accompaniments
                                                                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Repertoire and Target Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Diet now almost as popular as regular
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 42: Regular and reduced-sugar soft drinks consumption, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                • And Coke has them both sewn up
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Regular and reduced-sugar soft drinks consumption, by brand, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • A third of the population drink a variety of soft drinks
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 44: How many different types/brands of fizzy drinks people have drunk in the past 6 months, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 45: Repertoire of fizzy drinks, by brands, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • More fun to drink than water?
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 46: How attitudes change as repertoire rises, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • The alcohol alternative
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 47: Repertoire of fizzy drinks, by when they are drunk, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Identifying targets
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 48: Attitudinal groups by size, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: How attitudinal groups differentiate on attitudes, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Naughty but nice (11%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Rationalisers (17%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Health sensitives (23%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Moderate drinkers (47%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Heaviest consumers are the Rationalisers and Naughty but nice
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Attitudinal groups by how many different types of fizzy drinks they have consumed in the past six months, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Naughty but nice use them as a pick-me-up
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: Attitudinal groups by occasions when they drink fizzy drinks, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Coke the most popular drink amongst all but health sensitives
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 52: Attitudinal groups by which soft drinks they consume, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Naughty but nice the most likely to consume full sugar variants
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Attitudinal groups by whether they consume regular or low sugar soft drinks, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Consumer research
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • ACORN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Advertising data
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 54: Structure of the UK population, by age and gender, 2003-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Trends in personal disposable income and consumer expenditure, in 2008 prices, 2003-13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Cans/Small Bottles drunk last Week by demographics, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Who buys fizzy drinks for kids by demographics, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Type of fizzy drinks consumed by demographics, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Where kids consume fizzy drinks by demographics, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Consumption of fizzy and other drinks by demographic, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Main monitored media advertising spend on carbonates, by brand*, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Usage/Frequency of Carbonates

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Trends for preferred flavours and format of fizzy drinks, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 63: Demographics for usage of fizzy drinks, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 64: Demographics for consumption of own-label versus branded fizzy soft drinks, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 65: Cans/small bottles drunk in last week, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Cans/small bottles drunk last week by demographics, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Trends for consumption behaviour of fizzy soft drinks amongst kids, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Repertoire and Target Opportunities

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Usage of types of carbonated drinks, by socio details, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 69: Usage of types of carbonated drinks, by socio details, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 70: Usage of types of carbonated drinks, by socio details, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Usage of types of carbonated drinks, by socio details, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 72: Agreements with statemnts about carbonates, by socio details, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Agreements with statements about carbonates, by socio details, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Agreements with statements about carbonates, by socio details, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 75: When do consumers drinks carbonates, by socio details, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Younger drinkers most likely to drink both
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 76: Regular and reduced-sugar soft drinks consumers, by demographic sub-group, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 77: Attitudinal groups by agreement with statements about fizzy drinks, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 78: Attitudinal groups, by demographics, November 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 79: Attitudinal groups by how many different types of fizzy drinks they have consumed in the past six months, November 2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Carbonated Soft Drinks - UK - February 2009

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