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Carbonated Soft Drinks - UK - June 2011

For the purposes of this report, Mintel defines the carbonates market as covering all carbonated soft drinks sold in either the off- or on-trade. Energy/sports drinks are excluded.

The basic ingredients of soft drinks are water, a sweetener, an acid and flavouring. Under European regulations, carbonated drinks are "a manufactured drink, optionally sweetened, acidulated, carbonated and which contain fruit, fruit juice and other salts; the flavour may derive from vegetable extracts or flavourings".

Optional ingredients include fruit, carbon dioxide, preservative and colouring. Water is always the major ingredient and represents 86% of any carbonate. In order to maintain consistency with previous Mintel reports, the following categories are used:

  • colas
  • lemonades (including lemon-and-lime flavours)
  • mixers (including tonic water, ginger ale, soda water and bitter lemon); soda water differs from fizzy water with the addition of sodium and its status as a mixer rather than a drink to be consumed on its own
  • other (including general fruit-flavoured carbonates, flavoured waters, ‘traditional’ carbonates such as ginger beer and shandy, and products such as root beer, carbonated iced teas, etc).

All mainstream carbonated soft drinks are covered, although some specialised markets (such as premium, or adult, soft drinks) are covered by the separate titles indicated above.

Diet carbonates are included. Products that state ‘reduced sugar’ on labels must contain at least 25% less sugar than the normal full-sugar variant of the drink: such products are not sugar-free. Products which state ‘no added sugar’ on labels are drinks which have had no additional sugar added. As with reduced sugar drinks, these products are not sugar-free as they may have natural sugar derived from one of their ingredients, such as the sugar from natural orange juice.

Excluded

Specifically excluded are energy drinks, natural bottled waters and premium (adult) soft drinks, including carbonated herbal drinks; these are covered in separate reports.

A flavoured still water is not water but what is commonly known as a clear soft drink. Under EU bottled water regulations, nothing may be added to water, except carbon dioxide. As soon as any other ingredient is added, whether it is a colour, flavour or sugar, the product becomes a soft drink.

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Excluded
          • Abbreviations
          • Executive Summary

              • The market
                • Figure 1: Market size and forecast for value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2006-16
              • Market factors
                • Figure 2: Trends in yearly price inflation (RPI) changes for UK soft drinks compared to all items, 2000-10
              • Companies, brands and innovation
                • Figure 3: UK take-home brand share of the carbonated soft drinks market, 2010
              • The consumer
                  • Figure 4: Occasions people buy carbonated soft drinks for, April 2011
                • What we think
                • Issues in the Market

                    • Where are the future growth opportunities in such a mature market?
                      • Do energy drinks pose the greatest threat to the CSD market?
                        • Which usage occasions represent the greatest opportunities for growth?
                          • What are currently the key purchase drivers for carbonated soft drinks?
                          • Future Opportunities

                              • Premiumisation and indulgence
                                • A Simple Balance for Health
                                • Internal Market Environment

                                  • Key points
                                    • Raw costs of soft drinks are rising exponentially…
                                      • Figure 5: Trends in yearly price inflation (RPI) changes for UK soft drinks compared to all items, 2000-10
                                    • …but carbonated soft drinks remain a cheap option for consumers
                                      • Figure 6: Price comparison for standalone soft drinks, May 2011
                                    • Economic downturn puts health worries in perspective
                                      • Figure 7: Agreement with healthy lifestyle statements, December 2008-March 2011
                                    • Are soft drinks starting to replace alcohol?
                                      • Figure 8: Total UK value sales (in £ billions, at constant 2006 prices) of alcoholic versus non-alcoholic beverages, 2000-10
                                    • More sunshine means more sales
                                      • Figure 9: Annual sunshine hours 2003-10, compared to the 1971-2000 average
                                    • The rising importance of ethical branding
                                      • Figure 10: Consumer attitudes towards packaging and recycling, July 2009
                                  • Broader Market Environment

                                    • Key points
                                      • Consumers’ squeezed income benefits cheaper categories…
                                        • Figure 11: % change in average weekly earnings compared to inflation in the UK, January 2005-April 2011*
                                      • …and drinks remains fairly high up on people’s list of spending priorities…
                                        • Figure 12: Trends in what extra money is spent on, May 2011
                                      • …not to mention those of kids
                                        • Figure 13: Trends in how 7-14-year-olds spend their pocket money, 2010
                                      • Manufacturers are staying ahead of the legislatory curve
                                        • Growth of 25-34s will benefit category
                                          • Figure 14: Trends in the growth of the UK 25-34-year-old population, 2006-16
                                        • Growth of AB population means premiumisation remains important
                                          • Figure 15: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
                                      • Competitive Context

                                        • Key points
                                          • Carbonated soft drinks dwarf the increasing competition
                                            • Figure 16: Trends in drink types consumed in the past 12 months, 2006-10
                                          • Economic downturn changes market dynamics
                                            • Energy drinks hone in on young men
                                              • Figure 17: Index of consumption of the major soft drink categories – 15-24-year-olds versus all adults, 2010
                                            • Mainstream health options fail to take off
                                              • Fruit juice/smoothies give way to fizzy drinks among teenagers
                                                • Figure 18: Trends for consumption of fizzy and other drinks amongst kids, by age, 2006-10
                                            • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market

                                              • Strengths
                                                • Weaknesses
                                                • Who's Innovating?

                                                  • Key points
                                                    • Colas lead innovation…
                                                      • Figure 19: NPD, by flavour (top 6), 2008-10
                                                    • ...and there is a general lack of exciting new flavours
                                                        • Figure 20: Trends in flavours of fizzy soft drinks (excluding cola) drunk most often, 2007-10
                                                      • Environmental packaging comes to the fore
                                                        • Figure 21: Most popular claims for new carbonated soft drink products, 2008-10
                                                    • Market Size, Forecast and Segmentation

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Market performs steadily but will increasingly be impacted by high inflation
                                                          • Figure 22: Market volume and value forecast for the total carbonated soft drinks market, 2006-16
                                                        • Take-home sales will continue to rise but margins are becoming squeezed
                                                          • Figure 24: Market volume and value forecast for take-home carbonated soft drinks market, 2006-16
                                                        • Diet/low-calorie brands are fuelling take-home sales
                                                          • Figure 25: Value sales in the take-home sector, by sugar content, 2008-10
                                                        • Despite its potential in the on-trade, growth is likely to remain slow
                                                            • Figure 26: Market volume and value forecast for on-premise carbonated soft drinks market, 2006-16
                                                          • Forecast methodology
                                                          • Market Share

                                                            • Key points
                                                              • Coca-Cola accounts for just under a half of take-home revenue...
                                                                  • Figure 27: UK take-home brand share of the carbonated soft drinks market, 2008-10
                                                                • …but Pepsi is going head to head in the on-trade
                                                                  • Figure 28: UK on-premise brand value share of the carbonated soft drinks market, 2008-10
                                                              • Companies and Products

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • AG Barr plc
                                                                    • Background
                                                                      • Product range
                                                                        • Recent activity
                                                                          • Britvic
                                                                            • Background
                                                                              • Product range
                                                                                • Recent activity
                                                                                  • Coca-Cola
                                                                                    • Background
                                                                                      • Product range
                                                                                        • Recent activity
                                                                                          • PepsiCo
                                                                                            • Background
                                                                                              • Product range
                                                                                                • Recent activity
                                                                                                • Brand Research

                                                                                                  • Brand map
                                                                                                      • Figure 29: Attitudes towards and usage of fizzy drink brands, March 2011
                                                                                                    • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                      • Figure 30: Attitudes, by fizzy drink brand, March 2011
                                                                                                    • Brand personality
                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Fizzy drink brand personality – macro image, March 2011
                                                                                                      • Figure 32: Fizzy drink brand personality – micro image, March 2011
                                                                                                    • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                      • Brand experience
                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Fizzy drink brand usage, March 2011
                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Satisfaction with various fizzy drink brands, March 2011
                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Consideration of fizzy drink brands, March 2011
                                                                                                        • Figure 36: Consumer perceptions of current fizzy drink brand performance, March 2011
                                                                                                        • Figure 37: Fizzy drink brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, March 2011
                                                                                                      • Brand index
                                                                                                        • Figure 38: Fizzy drink brand index, March 2011
                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Fizzy drink brand index versus recommendation, March 2011
                                                                                                      • Target group analysis
                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Target groups, March 2011
                                                                                                        • Figure 41: Fizzy drink brand usage, by target groups, March 2011
                                                                                                      • Group One – The Conformists
                                                                                                        • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                          • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                            • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                              • Group Five – The Individualists
                                                                                                              • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • The take-home channel is more dominant than ever
                                                                                                                    • Figure 42: Volume sales in the total carbonated soft drinks market, by channel, 2008-10
                                                                                                                  • Supermarkets draw in value-conscious customers…
                                                                                                                    • Figure 43: Volume and value sales in the take-home carbonated soft drinks market, by channel, 2008-10
                                                                                                                  • …but impulse is starting to pick up
                                                                                                                    • Challenging on-trade environment
                                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Number of pub outlets, 2005-15
                                                                                                                  • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                      • Adspend declines as revenues pick up
                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Above-the-line spend for the total carbonated soft drinks market, 2006/07-2010/11*
                                                                                                                      • Original Coke advertising is omnipresent…
                                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Above-the-line spend for the top ten brands in the carbonated soft drinks market, 2008-11*
                                                                                                                      • …but low-calorie brands are increasingly seeing support
                                                                                                                        • Diet Coke embraces fashion
                                                                                                                        • Consumer Usage of Carbonated Soft Drinks

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • A recessionary boost – particularly for non-colas
                                                                                                                                • Figure 47: Trends in drink types consumed in the past 12 months, 2006-10
                                                                                                                              • Colas benefit from greater frequency of usage
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 48: Number and frequency of occasions for drinking fizzy carbonates, 2010
                                                                                                                                • Fizzy carbonates mainly drunk by younger C2DEs
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Average drinking occasions per month for carbonated soft drinks, by gender, age and socio-economic group, 2010
                                                                                                                                  • Diet drinks overtake standard
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 50: Carbonated soft drinks bought or drunk in the past 12 months, April 2011
                                                                                                                                    • Low-calorie colas find right combination between taste and dieting
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 51: How attitudes towards taste and price of carbonated soft drinks have changed now compared to a year ago – standard drinkers versus low/no-calorie drinkers, April 2011
                                                                                                                                      • Premium soft drinks are the logical next step for low-calorie drinks
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: Index of standard, low/no-calorie and premium carbonated soft drinks bought or drunk in the past 12 months, by gender, age and socio-economic group, April 2011
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 53: Major three reasons people would pay more for a premium soft drink, December 2009
                                                                                                                                        • Cans are king – but there is a lack of flexibility around smaller formats
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 54: Trends in types of colas drunk most often, 2007-10
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 55: Trends in kinds of fizzy soft drinks (excluding colas) drunk most often, 2007-10
                                                                                                                                      • Consumer Occasions for Carbonated Soft Drinks Usage

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Carbonated soft drinks remain largely for in-home consumption
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Occasions people buy carbonated soft drinks for, April 2011
                                                                                                                                            • Expanding their focus more towards out-of-home occasions…
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 57: Occasions people buy carbonated soft drinks for compared to occasions that people buy bottled water for, April 2011
                                                                                                                                            • …particularly when targeting young drinkers
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 58: Occasions people buy carbonated soft drinks for – 16-24-year-olds versus all drinkers, April 2011
                                                                                                                                            • Consumer Attitudes towards Carbonated Soft Drinks

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Consumers increasingly care about the calories they consume
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 59: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks now compared to a year ago, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 60: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks now compared to a year ago, by gender, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                • Consumers put their trust in the big brands
                                                                                                                                                  • Being cheap and a treat makes carbonates a compelling proposition
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: General attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                    • Young drinkers love the fact that carbonates are a ‘guilty pleasure’
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 62: Net agreement in general attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks – 16-34-year-olds versus over-35s*, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                      • Variety keeps young drinkers interested…
                                                                                                                                                        • …and is a key appeal of premium soft drinks
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 63: General attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks – all drinkers versus premium drinkers, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 64: What extra money is spent on, selected statements, by demographics, May 2011
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 65: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2006 prices, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 66: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2006-16
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Competitive Context

                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 67: Drink types consumed in the past 12 months, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 68: Drink types consumed in the past 12 months, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 69: Brand usage, March 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 70: Brand commitment, March 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 71: Brand momentum, March 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 72: Brand diversity, March 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 73: Brand satisfaction, March 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 74: Brand recommendation, March 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 75: Brand attitude, March 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 76: Brand image – Macro image, March 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 77: Brand image – Micro image, March 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 78: Profile of target groups, by demographics, March 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 79: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, March 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 80: Brand usage, by target groups, March 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 81: Brand index, March 2011
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Consumer Usage

                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 82: Frequency of drinking colas, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 83: Frequency of drinking fizzy soft drinks (excluding cola), by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 84: Frequency of drinking fizzy minerals as mixers for alcoholic drinks, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 85: Volumetric for drinking colas, by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 86: Volumetric for drinking fizzy soft drinks (excluding cola), by demographics, 2010
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 87: Most popular carbonated soft drinks bought or drunk in the past 12 months, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 88: Next most popular carbonated soft drinks bought or drunk in the past 12 months, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 89: Most popular carbonated soft drinks bought or drunk in the past 12 months, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 90: Next most popular carbonated soft drinks bought or drunk in the past 12 months, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Consumer Occasions for Carbonated Soft Drinks Usage

                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 91: Occasions people buy carbonated soft drinks for, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 92: Most popular general attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 93: Next most popular general attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                        • Appendix – Consumer Attitudes towards Carbonated Soft Drinks

                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 94: Most popular attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks now compared to a year ago, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 95: Next most popular attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks now compared to a year ago, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 96: Most popular attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks now compared to a year ago, by demographics, April 2011
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 97: Next most popular attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks now compared to a year ago, by demographics, April 2011

                                                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                        • AG Barr
                                                                                                                                                        • British Beer and Pub Association
                                                                                                                                                        • British Dietetic Association (BDA)
                                                                                                                                                        • Britvic Soft Drinks
                                                                                                                                                        • Cadbury Schweppes Plc
                                                                                                                                                        • Coca-Cola GB
                                                                                                                                                        • Fentimans Limited
                                                                                                                                                        • Pepsi-Cola UK
                                                                                                                                                        • Wm Morrison Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                                        Carbonated Soft Drinks - UK - June 2011

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