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Carbonated Soft Drinks - UK - June 2012

“The market must continue to advertise to keep the category front of mind with the consumer and step up innovation of healthier variants including the use of new sweeteners, to keep pace with that in competing categories such as juice drinks, which has increased NPD at a faster rate than CSDs.”

– Amy Lloyd, Senior Food and Drink Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How can the market leverage sharing occasions?
  • How can the market encourage greater usage on the go?
  • How can the category stay ahead in an increasingly competitive soft drinks market?
  • How much of a threat do own-label players pose to leading brands?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Excluded
          • Abbreviations
          • Executive Summary

              • The market
                • Figure 1: Market size and forecast for value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2007-17
              • The future
                • Market factors
                  • Discretionary spending comes under consumer reassessment
                    • A growing need to engage the older population
                      • Healthier variants drive growth
                        • Companies, brands and innovation
                          • Coca-Cola and Pepsi brands dominate the market
                            • Figure 2: Brand shares in the UK take-home carbonated soft drinks market, 2011
                          • NPD continues to drive the market
                            • Coca-Cola dominates ad investment, despite decline in spend
                              • The consumer
                                • Penetration stands at more than nine in ten
                                  • Figure 3: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by type, March 2012
                                • At home is the most popular venue for drinking CSDs
                                  • Figure 4: Occasions/locations when carbonated soft drinks have been drunk, March 2012
                                • Providing a refreshing ‘treat’ to consumers, in moderation
                                  • Figure 5: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, March 2012
                                • What we think
                                • Issues in the Market

                                    • How can the market leverage sharing occasions?
                                      • How can the market encourage greater usage on the go?
                                        • How can the category stay ahead in an increasingly competitive soft drinks market?
                                          • How much of a threat do own-label players pose to leading brands?
                                          • Future Opportunities

                                              • Make It Mine
                                                • Sense of the Intense
                                                  • Old Gold
                                                  • Internal Market Environment

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • Prices appear to have stabilised in the market
                                                        • Figure 6: Annual RPI percentage change for soft drinks, all items and food, January 2007-February 2012
                                                      • CSDs benefit from lower price positioning in soft drinks market than many competitors
                                                        • Figure 7: Prices per unit of selected soft drinks, May 2011
                                                      • A large minority of consumers look to avoid unhealthy products
                                                        • Figure 8: Trends in attitudes towards health, 2007-11
                                                      • Sunshine hours remain above long-term average
                                                        • Figure 9: Annual sunshine hours 2006-11, compared to the 1971-2000 average
                                                    • Broader Market Environment

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • The 2012 recession is expected to be shallow
                                                          • Figure 10: Consumer expenditure at constant 2012 prices, 2007-17
                                                        • Appealing to a price-sensitive consumer
                                                          • Demographic changes
                                                            • Growth in 25-34s should provide a boost to the market
                                                              • Figure 11: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-12 and 2012-17
                                                            • Rise in ABs bodes well for future growth
                                                              • Dominance of families is a positive for the sector
                                                                • Figure 12: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2007-17
                                                            • Competitive Context

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Carbonates dominate the soft drinks sphere
                                                                  • Figure 13: Trends in types of drink consumed in the past 12 months, 2007-11
                                                                • Carbonates trail juice in terms of NPD
                                                                  • Figure 14: Comparison of new product launches in carbonated soft drinks with other non-alcoholic beverages, 2009-12
                                                                • On-trade should maximise the benefits from consumers’ shift towards non-alcoholic drinks
                                                                  • Figure 15: UK pub industry turnover, by segment, 2009-11
                                                              • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                • Strengths
                                                                  • Weaknesses
                                                                  • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • The market continues to focus NPD on cola
                                                                        • Figure 16: New product launches, by flavour component (top six), 2009-12
                                                                      • Packaging formats provide innovation...
                                                                        • ...and environmental claims
                                                                          • Figure 17: Top five new product launch claims in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, 2009-12
                                                                        • CSD’s health-led NPD remains focused on low- and no-calorie/sugar variants
                                                                          • Premium varieties target 25-45-year-old women
                                                                          • Market Size, Forecast and Segmentation

                                                                            • Key points
                                                                              • Inflation continues to affect the market
                                                                                • Figure 18: Market volume and value size and forecast for the total UK carbonated soft drinks market, 2007-17
                                                                                • Figure 19: Market size and forecast for UK value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2007-17
                                                                                • Figure 20: Market size and forecast for UK volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2007-17
                                                                              • Take-home benefits from consumers spending more time at home
                                                                                • Figure 21: Market volume and value size and forecast for take-home carbonated soft drinks market, 2007-17
                                                                              • Healthier variants drive sales in the take-home channel
                                                                                • Figure 22: Value sales in the carbonated soft drinks take-home sector, by sugar content, 2009-11
                                                                              • On-trade to see a decline in volumes
                                                                                • Figure 23: Market volume and value size and forecast for on-premise carbonated soft drinks market, 2007-17
                                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                                              • Market Share

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Coca-Cola continues to account for almost half of take-home sales...
                                                                                    • Figure 24: Brand value shares in the UK take-home carbonated soft drinks market, 2009-11
                                                                                  • …but Pepsi overtakes in the on-trade
                                                                                    • Figure 25: Brand value shares of the UK on-premise carbonated soft drinks market, 2009-11
                                                                                • Companies and Products

                                                                                  • AG Barr Plc.
                                                                                    • Britvic
                                                                                      • Coca-Cola
                                                                                        • PepsiCo
                                                                                        • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Adspend in the market continues to fall
                                                                                              • Figure 26: Total advertising expenditure in the carbonated soft drinks market, 2008-11
                                                                                              • Figure 27: Advertising spend for carbonated soft drinks, by top five advertisers, 2009-11
                                                                                            • Preference for TV and outdoor advertising continues
                                                                                            • Brand Research

                                                                                              • Brand map
                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the carbonated soft drink sector, February 2012
                                                                                                • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                  • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                    • Figure 29: Attitudes, by carbonated soft drink brand, February 2012
                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Carbonated soft drinks brand personality – macro image, February 2012
                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Carbonated soft drink brand personality – micro image, February 2012
                                                                                                  • Brand experience
                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Carbonated soft drink brand usage, February 2012
                                                                                                    • Figure 33: Satisfaction with various carbonated soft drink brands, February 2012
                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Consideration of carbonated soft drink brands, February 2012
                                                                                                    • Figure 35: Consumer perceptions of current carbonated soft drink brand performance, February 2012
                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Carbonated soft drinks brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, February 2012
                                                                                                  • Brand index
                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Carbonated soft drinks brand index, February 2012
                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Carbonated soft drink brand index vs. recommendation, February 2012
                                                                                                  • Target group analysis
                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Target groups, February 2012
                                                                                                    • Figure 40: Carbonated soft drinks brand usage, by target groups, February 2012
                                                                                                  • Group One – Conformists
                                                                                                    • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                      • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                        • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                          • Group Five – Individualists
                                                                                                          • Channels to Market

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Take-home market continues to dominate
                                                                                                                • Figure 41: Volume sales in the total carbonated soft drinks market, by channel, 2009-11
                                                                                                              • Supermarkets dominate the market
                                                                                                                • Figure 42: Value and volume sales in the take-home carbonated soft drinks market, by channel, 2009-11
                                                                                                              • The impulse channel hopes for a stronger summer 2012
                                                                                                                • The on-trade should present an opportunity for future growth
                                                                                                                  • Figure 43: Trends in the number of pub outlets, 2006-11
                                                                                                              • Consumer – Usage

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • Penetration stands at more than nine in ten
                                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Drinking habits of carbonated soft drinks, March 2012
                                                                                                                    • Half of adults drink CSDs at least once a week
                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Frequency of drinking carbonated soft drinks, March 2012
                                                                                                                      • Premium formats appeal to most affluent consumers
                                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Usage of premium soft drinks, by age, socio-economic group and household income, March 2012
                                                                                                                      • Healthier versions lose ground as go-to drink
                                                                                                                          • Figure 47: Trends in kinds of colas drunk most often, 2007-11
                                                                                                                          • Figure 48: Trends in kinds of fizzy soft drinks drunk most often, 2007-11
                                                                                                                        • The young are the core users of healthier variants
                                                                                                                            • Figure 49: Usage of low/no-calorie/diet cola and non-cola, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                          • Cans continue to dominate among formats
                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Trends in types of colas drunk most often, 2007-11
                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: Trends in types of fizzy soft drinks drunk most often, 2007-11
                                                                                                                          • Consumer – Occasions

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • The home is the most popular venue to drink CSDs in
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 52: Occasions/locations when carbonated soft drinks have been drunk, March 2012
                                                                                                                                • On-premise consumption appeals most to affluent consumers
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 53: Index of drinking carbonated soft drinks in a pub/bar, restaurants/café or other out-of-home venue, by gender, age, socio-economic group and annual household income, March 2012
                                                                                                                                • A need to increase usage on the go
                                                                                                                                • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Low-calorie/Sugar Carbonated Soft Drinks

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • Attitudes of those drinking low-calorie/sugar variants
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: Agreement with statements on drinking low-calorie/sugar carbonated soft drinks-users, March 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Attitudes of those who do not drink low-calorie/sugar variants
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 55: Agreement with statements on healthier carbonated soft drinks-non-users, March 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Carbonated Soft Drinks

                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                          • Providing a refreshing ‘treat’ to consumers, in moderation
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, March 2012
                                                                                                                                            • A sizeable minority believe CSDs are ‘unhealthy’
                                                                                                                                              • Users are adventurous on flavour, not on brand
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 57: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to try new flavours’ and ‘I would like to see more limited edition flavours eg ginger-flavoured cola’, by age, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Market needs to remind consumers of affordability of CSDs
                                                                                                                                                  • New flavours should appeal to premium soft drink users
                                                                                                                                                    • Taste is a barrier to older consumers
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Net agreement on general attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks – under-45s versus over-45s*, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • Three target groups
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 59: Target groups based on attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                      • Budget-Conscious (29%)
                                                                                                                                                        • Engaged (37%)
                                                                                                                                                          • Disengaged (34%)
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Attitudes towards health, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Trends in statements on price/brand, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 62: Statements on price/brand, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 63: Average trip duration for work in the UK, 1995/97-2010
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Consumer confidence index, January 1988-January 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Market Size, Segmentation and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Best- and worst-case forecasts for carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: Best- and worst-case forecasts for carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Market size and forecast for UK volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Best- and worst-case forecasts for take-home carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Best- and worst-case forecasts for take-home carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 72: Best- and worst-case forecasts for on-premise carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 73: Best- and worst-case forecasts for on-premise carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 74: Main media advertising spend for carbonated soft drinks, by top ten brands, 2009-11
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 75: Main media advertising spend for carbonated soft drinks, by media channel, 2009-11
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 76: Brand usage, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 77: Brand commitment, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 78: Brand momentum, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 79: Brand diversity, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 80: Brand satisfaction, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 81: Brand recommendation, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 82: Brand attitude, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 83: Brand image – macro image, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 84: Brand image – micro image, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 85: Profile of target groups, by demographics, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 86: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 87: Brand usage, by target groups, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 88: Brand index, February 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer – Usage

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 89: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by frequency, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 90: Usage of drinking carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 91: Next most popular frequency of drinking carbonated soft drinks, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer – Occasions

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 92: Occasions/locations when carbonated soft drinks have been drunk, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 93: Most popular occasions when carbonated soft drinks have been drunk, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 94: Next most popular occasions when carbonated soft drinks have been drunk, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Low-Calorie/Sugar Carbonated Soft Drinks

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 95: Agreement with statements on drinking low-calorie/sugar carbonated soft drinks – users, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 96: Agreement with statements on healthier carbonated soft drinks – non-users, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 97: Agreement with most popular statements on drinking low-calorie/sugar carbonated soft drinks – users, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 98: Agreement with next most popular statements on drinking low-calorie/sugar carbonated soft drinks – users, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 99: Agreement with statements on healthier carbonated soft drinks – non-users, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Carbonated Soft Drinks

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 100: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 101: Agreement with the statements ‘I believe they are fine in moderation’ and ‘They are refreshing’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 102: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer brands I trust/are well known rather than less well-known brands’ and ‘I drink them when I want a treat’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 103: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to try new flavours’ and ‘I try to avoid them because they are unhealthy’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 104: Agreement with the statements ‘I would switch to own-label to save money’ and ‘I think they are good value, compared to other soft drinks’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 105: Agreement with the statements ‘They taste too sweet’ and ‘I would like to see more limited edition flavours’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 106: Agreement with the statements ‘Own-label tastes as good as branded’ and ‘They taste too fizzy’, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 107: Target groups, by demographics, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 108: Drinking habits of carbonated soft drinks, by target groups, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 109: Drinking habits of mixers to be used with alcohol (eg tonic water, for gin and tonic), by target groups, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 110: Occasions when carbonated soft drinks have been drunk, by target groups, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 111: Agreement with statements on drinking low-calorie/sugar carbonated soft drinks, by target groups, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 112: Agreement with statements on healthier carbonated soft drinks, by target groups, March 2012
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 113: Attitudes towards carbonated soft drinks, by target groups, March 2012

                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                          • British Pepper and Spice Co Ltd
                                                                                                                                                          • Coca-Cola GB
                                                                                                                                                          • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                          • Harvey Nichols UK
                                                                                                                                                          • Pepsi-Cola UK

                                                                                                                                                          Carbonated Soft Drinks - UK - June 2012

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