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Carbonated Soft Drinks - UK - June 2015

“That nearly half of adults view low sugar content as more important than the brand highlights how essential it is that brands’ diet/light variants are widely available to retain users. However, concerns continue to linger about artificial sweeteners, translating to marked interest in plant-derived sweeteners in the CSD (carbonated soft drink) market.”
– Colette Warren, Food and Drink Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • A strong interest in lower-sugar CSDs without sweeteners
  • NPD offers growth opportunities in own-label CSDs
  • Whilst a low sugar content is important, so is the type of sweetener used
That 44% of adults view branded carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) as more of a treat than own-label varieties signals the power of branding in this market.
 
While this suggests that own-label needs to build on its ‘treat’ credentials, it’s also good news for branded CSDs as their ‘treat’ image should support this segment when people have more money.
 

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: Forecast of total UK value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2010-20
            • Market factors
              • Sugar concerns put pressure on CSDs
                • Falling alcohol consumption should have created opportunities for CSDs
                  • Rising real incomes should support the market
                    • Companies, brands and innovation
                      • Diet brands buck the downward trend in CSDs
                        • Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by value, 2014/15*
                      • Coke retains innovation lead, new brands enter sparkling juice segment
                        • Total adspend falls by £7.5 million in 2014
                          • The consumer
                            • CSD usage stands at almost 80%
                              • Figure 3: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by type, March 2015
                            • Diet/light CSDs are drunk more frequently than standard ones
                              • Figure 4: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by frequency, March 2015
                            • More than a quarter of non-diet CSD drinkers have cut back
                              • Figure 5: Changes in usage of CSDs compared to a year ago, March 2015
                            • Minority interest in more sparkling fruit juices
                              • Figure 6: Attitudes/behaviours related to buying CSDs, March 2015
                            • A third of users limit their non-diet CSDs due to sugar concerns
                              • Figure 7: Health attitudes related to CSDs, March 2015
                            • ‘Less sugar’ is key all round
                              • Figure 8: Further attitudes towards CSDs, March 2015
                            • What we think
                            • Issues and Insights

                                • A strong interest in lower-sugar CSDs without sweeteners
                                  • The facts
                                    • The implications
                                      • NPD offers growth opportunities in own-label CSDs
                                        • The facts
                                          • The implications
                                            • Whilst a low sugar content is important, so is the type of sweetener used
                                              • The facts
                                                • The implications
                                                • Market Drivers

                                                  • Key points
                                                    • Obesity crisis puts pressure on CSD operators…
                                                      • …with sugar a focus in 2014…
                                                        • …negatively impacting usage of CSDs
                                                          • Operators should emphasise natural ingredients, including plant-derived sweeteners
                                                            • CSDs have been well placed to capitalise on cutbacks on alcohol
                                                              • Figure 9: Trends in UK per capita consumption of 100% alcohol, 2006-14
                                                            • A rise in real disposable income should help to increase usage of CSDs
                                                              • Figure 10: Financial wellbeing index, April 2009-April 2015
                                                            • Innovation will be key in capitalising on demographic changes
                                                              • Figure 11: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2009-14 and 2014-19
                                                            • Rise in older cohorts poses a challenge for the CSD market
                                                            • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                              • Strengths
                                                                • Weaknesses
                                                                • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Coca-Cola leads NPD for the fifth year
                                                                      • Figure 12: New product launches within the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by ultimate company (top 10), 2010-14
                                                                      • Figure 13: Share of new product launches within the UK CSD market, branded vs own-label, 2010-14
                                                                    • Coca-Cola Life should appeal to the third of adults who limit CSD intake due to sugar concerns
                                                                      • Own-label makes a strong start in 2015
                                                                        • More than a third of new products carry a low/no/reduced calorie claim
                                                                          • Figure 14: Share of new product launches within the UK CSD market, by top 10 claims, 2010-14
                                                                        • The increase in all-natural claims should be well received
                                                                          • Zeo cuts calories and focuses on natural ingredients in range revamp
                                                                            • Canned CSDs increase their share in the NPD landscape
                                                                              • Figure 15: Share of new product launches within the UK CSD market, by packaging type, 2010-14
                                                                            • Citrus and Tropical fruits were popular flavour choices in 2014
                                                                              • Healthy canned drinks look to superfoods for flavour inspiration
                                                                                • The rise in sparkling fruit juice NPD seems well timed
                                                                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Carbonated soft drink volumes look set to continue to fluctuate
                                                                                      • Figure 16: UK total value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks 2010-20
                                                                                      • Figure 17: Forecast of total UK value sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2010-20
                                                                                      • Figure 18: Forecast of total UK volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2010-20
                                                                                    • Retail sales are expected to see steady but modest growth
                                                                                      • Figure 19: UK retail value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2010-20
                                                                                    • On-premise sales
                                                                                      • Figure 20: UK on-premise value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2010-20
                                                                                    • Forecast methodology
                                                                                    • Segment Performance

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Diet/light drinks kept cola carbonates afloat
                                                                                          • Mixers hold their own in a flat market
                                                                                            • Figure 21: Off-trade value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks, by type, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                        • Market Share

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Coca-Cola retains top position, Coke brands take 39% of market by value
                                                                                              • Figure 22: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by value, 2014/15*
                                                                                            • Regular Coca-Cola loses share
                                                                                              • Regular Pepsi loses out to Pepsi Max
                                                                                                • Fanta doesn’t escape the sugar scare
                                                                                                  • Schweppes’ sales take a hit as CCE reduces adspend
                                                                                                    • Figure 23: Leading brands in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                                    • Figure 24: Leading brands in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                                    • Figure 25: Leading manufacturers in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Leading manufacturers in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks market, by volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                                • Companies and Products

                                                                                                  • AG Barr
                                                                                                    • Background
                                                                                                      • Recent activity
                                                                                                        • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                          • Advertising and promotion
                                                                                                            • Britvic Plc
                                                                                                              • Background
                                                                                                                • Product range
                                                                                                                  • Product innovation
                                                                                                                    • Advertising and promotion
                                                                                                                      • Coca-Cola
                                                                                                                        • Background
                                                                                                                          • Product range
                                                                                                                            • Product innovation
                                                                                                                              • Recent activity and promotion
                                                                                                                                • Fentimans
                                                                                                                                  • Background
                                                                                                                                    • Product range and innovation
                                                                                                                                      • Recent activity and promotion
                                                                                                                                        • PepsiCo
                                                                                                                                          • Background
                                                                                                                                            • Product range and product innovation
                                                                                                                                              • Recent activity and promotion
                                                                                                                                                • SHS Group
                                                                                                                                                  • Background
                                                                                                                                                    • Product range
                                                                                                                                                      • Product innovation
                                                                                                                                                        • Recent activity and promotion
                                                                                                                                                        • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                            • Total adspend falls by £7.5 million in 2014
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 27: Main monitored advertising spend on carbonated soft drinks, 2011-14
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by top 10 advertisers*, 2011-14
                                                                                                                                                            • After a year off, D&G Drinks brings Old Jamaica Ginger Beer back to our screens
                                                                                                                                                              • Adspend on regular Coca-Cola halves as the focus moves to Diet Coke and Coca-Cola Life
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 29: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on carbonated soft drinks, by top 10 brands*, 2011-14
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 30: Main monitored media advertising expenditure in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by media type, 2011-14
                                                                                                                                                              • Coca-Cola invests £3.6 million in supporting the launch of new brand Coca-Cola Life
                                                                                                                                                                • Total TV adspend fell by 31% in 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • PepsiCo drives outdoor adspend
                                                                                                                                                                  • Brand Research – Carbonated Soft Drinks

                                                                                                                                                                    • What you need to know
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 31: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, April 2015
                                                                                                                                                                      • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Key metrics for selected brands, April 2015
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand attitudes: Coca-Cola Life provides something different from other brands
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 33: Attitudes, by brand, April 2015
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand personality: Fentimans’ price and product range promotes greater exclusivity
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: Brand personality – macro image, April 2015
                                                                                                                                                                      • Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Fanta most associated with taste
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Brand personality – micro image, April 2015
                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                                                        • Fentimans’ sophisticated image promotes a particularly different proposition
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 36: User profile of Fentimans, April 2015
                                                                                                                                                                        • Coca-Cola is likely to maintain its strong position as most drunk brand
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 37: User profile of Coca-Cola, April 2015
                                                                                                                                                                        • Fanta flavours appear particularly appealing to younger consumers
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 38: User profile of Fanta, April 2015
                                                                                                                                                                        • Coca-Cola Zero has yet to fully develop trust from consumers
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: User profile of Coca-Cola Zero, April 2015
                                                                                                                                                                        • Coca-Cola Life has a more ethical image than other Coca-Cola brands
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: User profile of Coca-Cola Life, April 2015
                                                                                                                                                                        • Pepsi Max has similarity to Coca-Cola Zero but struggles to match its performance
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: User profile of Pepsi Max, April 2015
                                                                                                                                                                        • Pepsi struggles to match strength of perception of Coca-Cola
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: User profile of Pepsi, April 2015
                                                                                                                                                                        • Irn-Bru driven forward by Scotland
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: User profile of Irn-Bru, April 2015
                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Usage of CSDs

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • CSD usage reaches almost 80%
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by type, March 2015
                                                                                                                                                                          • Diet/light CSDs are drunk more frequently than standard ones
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 45: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by frequency, March 2015
                                                                                                                                                                          • More than a quarter of non-diet CSD drinkers have cut back
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 46: Changes in usage of CSDs compared to a year ago, March 2015
                                                                                                                                                                          • CSD consumption is most prevalent at home
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by location, March 2015
                                                                                                                                                                          • Cola holds strong as the most popular CSD flavour
                                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Attitudes towards CSDs

                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                              • Own-label CSDs enjoy high usage but modest sales
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 48: Attitudes/behaviours related to buying CSDs, March 2015
                                                                                                                                                                              • Opportunity to increase purchases of own-label CSDs with NPD
                                                                                                                                                                                • Boosting the offering of sparkling fruit juice would appeal
                                                                                                                                                                                  • A third of users limit their intake of non-diet CSDs due to sugar concerns
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Health attitudes related to CSDs, March 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                  • One in four use light CSDs as healthy alternative when craving something sweet
                                                                                                                                                                                  • The Consumer – Further Attitudes towards CSDs

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                      • ‘Less sugar’ is key all round
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Further attitudes towards CSDs, March 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                      • The type of sweetener is important to consumers
                                                                                                                                                                                        • A strong preference for low sugar without sweeteners
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cutting sugar is an option as many see CSDs as too sweet
                                                                                                                                                                                            • The power of branding prevails
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Share of new product launches within the UK CSD market, branded vs own-label, 2011-15
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 52: Best and worst case forecasts for the total UK carbonated soft drinks market, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 53: Best and worst case forecasts for the total UK carbonated soft drinks market, by volume, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 54: Best and worst case forecasts for the UK retail carbonated soft drinks market, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Forecast of UK retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 56: Best and worst case forecasts for the UK retail carbonated soft drinks market, by volume, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 57: Forecast of UK retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 58: Best and worst case forecasts for the UK on-premise carbonated soft drinks market, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 59: Forecast of UK on-premise sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value 2010-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 60: Best and worst case forecasts for the UK on-premise carbonated soft drinks market, by volume, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 61: Forecast of UK on-premise sales of carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2010-20

                                                                                                                                                                                            Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Coca-Cola Company (The)

                                                                                                                                                                                            Carbonated Soft Drinks - UK - June 2015

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