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- The US Casual Dining Market - August 2011
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This report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s Casual Dining—U.S., October 2010, Casual Dining—U.S., November 2009, Casual Dining—U.S., October 2008, Casual Dining—U.S., October 2007, and Family/Midscale and Casual Dining—U.S., October 2006.
Casual dining restaurants are typically full-service restaurant chains with average checks between $8-20 per entrée. These restaurants frequently carry beer and wine licenses. With an appetizer, beverage and dessert, checks frequently come to $20 per person, though lunch specials of less than $10 for an entire meal are also common.
While Mintel’s market size incorporates a more exhaustive list, the custom consumer survey featured 16 restaurant chains to represent each of the three market segments. For the purpose of segmenting this market, casual dining chains can be divided into the following segments:
- Contemporary American and Seafood (e.g., Applebee’s, Chili’s, Red Lobster)
- Italian and Ethnic (e.g., Carrabba’s Italian Grill, Olive Garden, P.F. Chang’s)
- Steakhouse (e.g., Logan’s Roadhouse, Outback Steakhouse, Texas Roadhouse)
Scope and Themes
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Mintel Menu Insights
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
Executive Summary
Casual dining market overview
Market attracts high-income households, but recession stifles growth
Age and presence of kids are influential demographics
Competition for consumers’ dining-out dollar remains intense
Segment performance
Breaking down the casual dining menu
Utilizing an integrated marketing approach
Casual dining restaurants have strong reach
Olive Garden is the most widely used casual dining chain
Consumers spend significantly more during dinner
Value is a topmost factor in selecting a casual restaurant
Healthy food ranks top improvement for casual restaurants
Insights and Opportunities
Key points
The healthy food “opportunity”
Casual dining players jumping on the small plate bandwagon
Applebee’s—Casual dining “health” success story
Underutilized dayparts
Breakfast
Snack time
Figure 1: Time periods for snacking at restaurants, February 2011
Figure 2: Incidence of snack items,* by restaurant segment, Q1 2011
Inspire Insights
Trend: “Experience Is All”
Market Size
Challenging economic conditions continue to plague market
Figure 3: Total U.S. sales at casual dining restaurants, at current prices, 2006-16
Figure 4: Total U.S. sales of casual dining restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
Fan chart forecast
Figure 5: Fan chart of market value for casual dining restaurants, at current prices, 2006-16
Figure 6: Best and worst case forecast for casual dining restaurants, at current prices, 2011-2016
Market Drivers
Restaurant industry trying to forge ahead, but challenges remain
Figure 7: NRA performance indices, January 2009-May 2011
Restaurant sales trending upward
Figure 8: Adjusted foodservice and drinking places sales, January 2008–May 2011
Challenges exist as unemployment and underemployment remain high
Figure 9: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007–June 2011
Little change in personal income reason for weak consumer confidence
Figure 10: Real personal disposable income, January 2007–May 2011
Figure 11: Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007–June 2011
Catering to both old and young restaurant-goers
Figure 12: Population, by age, 2006-16
The importance of families
Figure 13: Households by presence of children, 2000-10
Figure 14: Average annual expenditures for food away from home, all consumer units vs. parents, 2005-09
Competitive Context
Key point
Casual dining players are just one option in a highly competitive market
Family midscale—Advantage breakfast
QSRs—Advantage convenience/value nexus
Fast casual—Advantage quality
Pizza—Advantage takeout
Segment Performance
Key points
Contemporary American and Seafood
The Cheesecake Factory and Chili’s produce steady growth
Figure 15: System-wide U.S. restaurant sales of leading contemporary American and seafood casual dining chains, 2008 and 2010
Italian and Ethnic
Olive Garden remains untouchable
Figure 16: System-wide U.S. restaurant sales of leading Italian and ethnic casual dining chains, 2008 and 2010
Steakhouse
Outback suffering from steep sales loss and unit decline
Figure 17: System-wide U.S. restaurant sales of leading steakhouse casual dining chains, 2008 and 2010
Restaurant Analysis—Applebee’s
Overview
Rebound in recent sales
Figure 18: Applebee’s system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth, percentage increase, 2006-Q1 2011*
Brand revitalization in progress
Menu development
Figure 19: Applebee’s menu, Q1 2011
Applebee’s has universal appeal
Figure 20: Applebee’s usage, October 2009-December 2010
Restaurant Analysis—Chili’s
Overview
Chili’s seeking brand transformation to fuel growth
Figure 21: Chili’s system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth, percentage increase, 2006-Q3 11*
Menu transformation
Figure 22: Chili’s menu, Q1 2011
Balancing value and innovation
Figure 23: Chili’s E-mail club coupon, June 2011
Figure 24: Incidence of online activity, by Chili’s users, October 2009-December 2010
Restaurant Analysis—Olive Garden
Overview
Flat performance
Figure 25: Olive Garden’s system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth, percentage increase, 2006-Q3 2011*
Distinct lunch and dinner menus
Figure 26: Olive Garden menu, Q1 2011
Sustainable approach to value pricing
Under-35s and affluent are core demographics for Olive Garden
Figure 27: Olive Garden usage, October 2009-December 2010
Restaurant Analysis—Outback Steakhouse
Overview
Solid start in sales growth for 2011
Figure 28: Outback Steakhouse system-wide comparable restaurant sales growth, percentage increase, 2006-Q1 2011*
Limited, high-quality menu
Figure 29: Outback Steakhouse menu, Q1 2011
Affluent restaurant-goers are Outback’s core user
Figure 30: Outback Steakhouse usage, October 2009-December 2010
Menu Analysis—The Casual Dining Menu
Key points
Most casual dining chains serve Traditional American menu items
Figure 31: Top 10 casual dining menu item cuisine, by incidence, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
Italian dishes are the most expensive menu items
Figure 32: Top 10 casual dining menu items, by incidence and average price, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
Steak is a differentiating menu item for casual operators
Figure 33: Top 10 casual dining menu items, by incidence, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
The premium price point of steaks helps to drive ticket sales
Figure 34: Top 10 casual dining menu items, by incidence and average price, Q1 2009- Q1 2011
Menu Analysis—Marketing the Casual Dining Menu
Key points
Freshness is topmost marketing claim used on the menu
Figure 35: Top 10 ingredient marketing claims on casual dining menus, by incidence, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
Marketing claims that speak to the senses command highest prices
Figure 36: Top 10 ingredient marketing claims on casual dining menus, by incidence and average price, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
Wellness nutritional claims appeal to larger audience
Figure 37: Top 10 ingredient nutritional claims on casual dining menus, by incidence, Q1 2009- Q1 2011
Higher prices are associated with menu items featuring wellness nutritional claims
Figure 38: Top 10 ingredient nutritional claims on casual dining menus, by incidence and average price, Q1 2009- Q1 2011
Menu Analysis—The Casual Dining Beverage Menu
Key points
Alcoholic beverages: cocktails are a hot trend at casual dining
Figure 39: Top 10 alcoholic beverages on casual dining menus, by incidence, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
Nonalcoholic beverages: milk is becoming more common on menus
Figure 40: Top 10 nonalcoholic beverages on casual dining menus, by incidence, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
Menu Analysis—The Casual Dining Kids’ Menu
Key points
Chicken fingers lead kids’ menu offerings
Figure 41: Top 10 kids’ menu items on casual dining menus, by incidence, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
High cost of beef makes kids’ steaks an expensive item
Figure 42: Top 10 kids’ menu items on casual dining menus, by incidence and average price, Q1 2009-Q1 2011
Marketing Strategies
Overview
TV ads
Promoting value and discount prices
Figure 43: Carrabba’s Italian Grill TV ad, April 2011
Figure 44: Red Lobster TV ad, November 2010
Figure 45: O’Charley’s Restaurant TV ad, March 2011
Figure 46: Red Robin TV ad, February 2011
Food quality and unique flavors
Figure 47: Olive Garden TV ad, March 2011
Figure 48: Chili’s TV ad, January 2011
The social experience
Figure 49: Hooters TV ad, September 2010
California Pizza Kitchen—Integrated marketing strategy
Figure 50: CPK email adventure club coupon, 2011
Figure 51: CPK.com monthly people, December 2010-May 2011
Figure 52: Ziosk tabletop technology, 2011
Ad spend
Figure 53: Select casual dining restaurant advertisers, 2008 and 2009
Casual Dining Restaurant Usage and Usage Frequency
Key points
Casual dining restaurants more likely to be used for dinner
Figure 54: Casual dining restaurant usage, by age, April 2011
Affluent households more likely to use casual restaurants for lunch and dinner
Figure 55: Casual dining restaurant usage, by household income, April 2011
Families more likely to dine at casual restaurants
Figure 56: Casual dining restaurant usage, by presence of children in household, April 2011
Casual restaurants are perceived as too expensive for lunch
Figure 57: Reasons for not dining at casual restuarants for lunch, by age, April 2011
Wealthier households can afford casual dining at lunch, but they say it takes too long
Figure 58: Reasons for not dining at casual restaurants for lunch, by household income, April 2011
Frequency of use
Figure 59: Frequency of casual dining restaurant use, by age, April 2011
High-income earners dine at casual restaurants most frequently
Figure 60: Frequency of casual dining restaurant use, by household income, April 2011
Households with children dine at casual restaurants more often
Figure 61: Frequency of casual dining restaurant use, by presence of children in household, April 2011
Casual Dining Restaurant Chain Usage
Key points
Olive Garden is the leading casual dining chain used
Figure 62: Casual dining restaurants used for lunch and dinner, April 2011
Dinner
Chili’s attracts under-35s for dinner
Figure 63: Casual dining restaurants used for dinner, by age, April 2011
Affluent households skew higher in usage of Chili’s and Outback for dinner
Figure 64: Casual dining restaurants used for dinner, by household income, April 2011
Families have strong acceptance for several leading casual dining chains for dinner
Figure 65: Casual dining restaurants used for dinner, by presence of children in household, April 2011
Lunch
Under-25s show uptick in usage of Olive Garden for lunch
Figure 66: Casual dining restaurants used for lunch, by age, April 2011
High-income households seek out other casual dining restaurants
Figure 67: Casual dining restaurants used for lunch, by household income, April 2011
Families are more likely to use a variety of casual dining chains at lunch
Figure 68: Casual dining restaurants used for lunch, by presence of children in household, April 2011
Spending at Casual Dining Restaurants
Key points
Check average at dinner is a third higher than lunch tickets
Figure 69: Casual dining check average and party size, by daypart, April 2011
Dinner
Affluent restaurant-goers spend more at dinner
Figure 70: Casual dining check average and party size for dinner, by household income, April 2011
Families spend less per person at casual restaurants for dinner
Figure 71: Casual dining check average and party size for dinner, by presence of children in household, April 2011
Lunch
Adults aged 25-34 have highest check average at lunch
Figure 72: Casual dining check average and party size for lunch, by household income, April 2011
Casual Dining Selection Factors
Key points
Value and menu equally influential in restaurant selection
Figure 73: Important factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, April 2011
Women want a good variety of food choices
Figure 74: Important factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by gender, April 2011
Older restaurant-goers most influenced by value, menu items, and location
Figure 75: Important factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by age, April 2011
Alcoholic beverage options and promotions aren’t highly influential
Figure 76: Important factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by age, April 2011
Restaurant performance in meeting demand of important attributes
Figure 77: Casual dining restaurant performance on important attributes, April 2011
Men give restaurant higher rank for doing a good job in fresh, natural/organic foods
Figure 78: Casual dining restaurant performance on important attributes, by gender, April 2011
Older restaurant-goers give restaurants higher score for value, menu items, and location
Figure 79: Casual dining restaurant performance on important attributes, by age, April 2011
Under-35s are satisfied with casual dining efforts in alcoholic drink promotion
Figure 80: Casual dining restaurant performance on important attributes, by age, April 2011
Consumer Demands for Casual Dining Restaurants
Key points
Healthier menu options and seafood top list of demands
Figure 81: Improvements for casual dining, April 2011
Women want healthier food choices
Figure 82: Improvements for casual dining, by gender, April 2011
Over-65s looking for smaller portions, seafood, fruits, and veggies
Figure 83: Improvements for casual dining, by age, April 2011
Attitudes Toward Casual Dining Experience
Key points
Full-service experience remains cornerstone of casual dining
Figure 84: Attitudes toward casual dining experience, April 2011
Healthier options could attract women to casual dining more often
Figure 85: Attitudes toward casual dining experience, by gender, April 2011
Younger restaurant-goers perceive casual dining as expensive
Figure 86: Attitudes toward casual dining experience, by age, April 2011
Cluster Analysis
Fresh, Healthy Sitters
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Unimpressed and Optionless
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Casually Satisfied
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristic tables
Figure 87: Casual dining clusters, April 2011
Figure 88: Important factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by casual dining clusters, April 2011
Figure 89: Improvements for casual dining, by casual dining clusters, April 2011
Figure 90: Casual dining restaurant performance on important attributes, by casual dining clusters, April 2011
Figure 91: Attitudes toward casual dining experience, by casual dining clusters, April 2011
Cluster demographic tables
Figure 92: Casual dining clusters, by gender, April 2011
Figure 93: Casual dining clusters, by age, April 2011
Figure 94: Casual dining clusters, by household income, April 2011
Figure 95: Casual dining clusters, by race, April 2011
Figure 96: Casual dining clusters, by Hispanic origin, April 2011
Cluster methodology
Custom Groups—Average Spend Percentiles
Lunch selection factors by average spend group
Figure 97: Important factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by average spend groups for lunch, April 2011
Dinner selection factors by average spend group
Figure 98: Important factors in selecting a casual dining restaurant, by average spend groups for dinner, April 2011
Lunch demands by average spend groups
Figure 99: Improvements for casual dining, by average spend groups for lunch, April 2011
Dinner demands by average spend groups
Figure 100: Improvements for casual dining, by average spend groups for dinner, April 2011
Appendix—Trade Associations
- American Heart Association, Inc.
- Applebee's International Inc.
- Brinker International Inc.
- Bureau of Economic Analysis
- California Pizza Kitchen Inc.
- Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
- Culinary Institute of America (CIA)
- Darden Restaurants Inc.
- Dave & Buster's
- Denny's Corporation
- DineEquity Inc.
- Domino's Pizza LLB
- Facebook, Inc.
- Food and Drug Administration
- Food Distributors International
- Food Marketing Institute
- Foursquare
- GE Capital
- Giordano's Enterprises, Inc.
- Hooters of America, Inc.
- International Food Information Council Foundation (IFIC)
- International Food Service Executives Association (IFSEA)
- International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA)
- International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA)
- International Franchise Association (IFA)
- Legal Sea Foods Inc.
- Logan's Roadhouse, Inc.
- McCormick & Schmick's Seafood Restaurants, Inc.
- McDonald's U.S.A.
- Moe's Southwest Grill, LLC
- National Council of Chain Restaurants (NCCR)
- National Nutritional Foods Association
- National Restaurant Association (NRA)
- National Retail Federation (NRF)
- Neiman Marcus (retail stores)
- O'Charley's Inc.
- OSI Restaurant Partners, Inc.
- P.F. Chang's China Bistro Inc.
- Pizza Hut Inc
- Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.
- Ruby Tuesday Inc.
- Skyy Spirits LLC
- Subway
- TGI Friday's
- The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
- Twitter, Inc.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- U.S. Bureau of the Census
- U.S. Department of Agriculture
- University of Michigan, The
- Uno Restaurant Holdings Corp.
- US Department of Commerce
- USA Today
- Weight Watchers International Inc.
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