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Center of Store - US - January 2017

"The shelf-stable and frozen and shelf-stable packaged food categories of the center store have generated only minimal growth in recent years as shoppers have gravitated to perimeter departments offering foods they perceive to be fresher, healthier, and tastier. While center-store brands are making changes to their products to align with shifting consumer preferences, product improvements alone may not be enough to accelerate growth. Retailers and brands should also look to create a more engaging and idea-driven shopping experience in the center store. "
- John Owen, Senior Analyst – Food & Drink

This Report discusses the following key topics:

  • Only minimal growth for center-store food as a whole
  • Young adults far less likely to shop center-store at supermarkets
  • Center store trails perimeter on fresh, healthy, and tasty

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Only minimal growth for center-store food as a whole
            • Figure 1: MULO sales and fan chart forecast of center of the store, at current prices, 2011-21
          • Young adults far less likely to shop center-store at supermarkets
            • Figure 2: Grocery purchase locations – Primary store, by age, October 2016
          • Center store trails perimeter on fresh, healthy, and tasty
            • Figure 3: Grocery department associations – Healthy, authentic, fresh, tasty, October 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Center-store assets to be leveraged: time-saving, helpful, a good value
              • Figure 4: Grocery department associations – Time-saving, a good value, helpful, October 2016
            • Young adults more likely to break out of the routine
              • Figure 5: Food shopping behaviors, by age, October 2016
            • Young adults interested in improved shopping experience
              • Figure 6: Interest in center-store concepts, by age, October 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Only minimal growth for center-store food as a whole
                • Shelf-stable food sets pace for center-store overall
                  • Declines for meals/entrees cut into growth for frozen food
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Only minimal growth for center-store food as a whole
                      • Figure 7: MULO sales and fan chart forecast of center of the store, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 8: MULO sales and forecast of center of the store, at current prices, 2011-21
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Shelf stable outpaces frozen food
                      • Figure 9: MULO sales and forecast of center of the store, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 10: MULO sales and forecast of shelf stable foods, at current prices, 2011-21
                    • Frozen food
                      • Figure 11: MULO sales and forecast of frozen food, at current prices, 2011-21
                  • Market Drivers

                    • Americans are trying to be healthier
                      • Figure 12: Attitudes toward food, by diet status, June 2016
                    • Younger generations reportedly shopping more
                      • Figure 13: US population by generation, 2016
                    • Growing Hispanic and Asian markets continue to influence grocery sector
                      • Figure 14: Generations, by race and Hispanic origin, 2016
                  • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                    • Encouraging flavor exploration
                      • Facilitating healthier eating
                        • Enabling snacking
                          • Providing small indulgences
                            • Prepared meals fight processed image
                              • Cold cereal lacks convenience, satiety
                                • Shelf-stable vegetables overshadowed by fresh
                                • What’s Working?

                                  • Encouraging flavor exploration
                                    • Figure 15: MULO sales of spices and seasonings, Mexican foods, and all other sauces, 2011-16
                                  • Facilitating healthier eating
                                    • Figure 16: MULO sales of rice, frozen fruit, and frozen seafood, 2011-16
                                  • Enabling snacking
                                    • Figure 17: MULO sales of snack nuts/seeds/corn nuts, salty snacks, snack bars/granola bars, and crackers, 2011-16
                                  • Providing small indulgences
                                    • Figure 18: MULO sales of chocolate candy, ice cream/sherbet, and cookies, 2011-16
                                • What’s Struggling?

                                  • Prepared meals fight processed image
                                    • Cold cereal lacks convenience, satiety
                                      • Shelf-stable vegetables overshadowed by fresh
                                        • Figure 19: MULO sales of frozen dinners/entrees, frozen pizza, soup, vegetables, and cold cereal, 2011-16
                                    • What’s Next?

                                      • Packaging innovation: greater transparency and functionality
                                        • Power to the plants
                                          • Making healthy and fresh faster
                                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                            • Supermarkets still the top center-store channel
                                              • Young adults far less likely to shop center-store at supermarkets
                                                • Center store trails perimeter on fresh, healthy, and tasty
                                                  • Center-store assets to be leveraged: time-saving, helpful, a good value
                                                    • Young adults more likely to break out of the routine
                                                      • Young adults interested in improved shopping experience
                                                        • Natural/specialty shoppers critical of center-store but also see improvement
                                                        • Grocery Purchase Locations

                                                          • Supermarkets still the top center-store channel
                                                            • Figure 20: Grocery purchase locations, October 2016
                                                          • Young adults far less likely to shop center-store at supermarkets
                                                            • Figure 21: Grocery purchase locations – Primary store, by age, October 2016
                                                          • Lower-income shoppers more likely to rely on mass, dollar channels
                                                            • Figure 22: Grocery purchase locations – Primary store, by household income, October 2016
                                                          • Hispanic, Asian shoppers less likely to rely on traditional supermarkets
                                                            • Figure 23: Grocery purchase locations – Primary store, by household income, October 2016
                                                          • In their words: overall shopping experience
                                                          • Grocery Department Associations

                                                            • Methodology
                                                              • Center store trails perimeter on fresh, healthy, and tasty
                                                                • Center-store assets to be leveraged: time-saving, helpful, a good value
                                                                  • Figure 24: Correspondence analysis – Grocery department associations, October 2016
                                                                  • Figure 25: Grocery department associations, October 2016
                                                                • In their words: prioritizing health convenience and taste:
                                                                • Food Shopping Behaviors

                                                                  • Routine dominates center-store shopping
                                                                    • Figure 26: Food shopping behaviors, October 2016
                                                                  • Young adults more likely to break out of the routine
                                                                    • Figure 27: Food shopping behaviors, October 2016
                                                                  • In their words: shopping routines
                                                                  • Interest in Center-store Concepts

                                                                    • Everyday low prices a priority over short-term promotions
                                                                      • Figure 28: Interest in center-store concepts, October 2016
                                                                    • Young adults more interested in improved shopping experience
                                                                      • Figure 29: Interest in center-store concepts, by age, October 2016
                                                                    • Natural/specialty shoppers more likely to look beyond price
                                                                      • Figure 30: Interest in center-store concepts, by retail channel shopped most often for center-store items, October 2016
                                                                    • In their words: reimagining the center-store experience
                                                                    • Attitudes toward Center Store

                                                                      • Young adults focused on price but also likely to enjoy center-store shopping
                                                                        • Figure 31: Attitudes toward center of the store – Any agree, by age, October 2016
                                                                      • Natural/specialty shoppers critical of center-store but also see improvement
                                                                        • Figure 32: Attitudes toward center of the store – Any agree, by age, by retail channel shopped most often for center-store items, October 2016
                                                                    • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                      • Data sources
                                                                        • Sales data
                                                                          • Fan chart forecast
                                                                            • Consumer survey data
                                                                              • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                                • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                                    • Terms
                                                                                    • Appendix – Market

                                                                                        • Figure 33: Total US sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                        • Figure 34: MULO sales of top edible grocery categories, 2011-16
                                                                                        • Figure 35: MULO sales of top frozen food categories, 2011-16
                                                                                        • Figure 36: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21

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                                                                                    Center of Store - US - January 2017

                                                                                    US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)