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Cereal Bars - UK - February 2010

  • Simply toning down the sweetness in cereal bars could win over 3.6 m adults who shun the bars for being too sweet.
  • Bigger is better. Larger cereal bars have the potential to attract over four million adults. This group doesn’t eat cereal bars as they prefer something more substantial.
  • Sharper price credentials could win over up to 13m current users who do not see cereal bars as offering value for money.
  • High fibre cereal bars could appeal to more than 12m over-55-year-olds, who are trying to include plenty of fibre in their diet. This is a particularly lucrative group, as just one in three over-55-year-olds currently eat cereal bars.
  • Sampling can be key to shaking non-users from their apathy. Just 13% of non-users see the bars as satisfying, while only 14% say they are unsatisfying, appearing to signal lack of experience and contact with the bars, rather than negative ones.
  • Cereal bars pitched as more exciting and filling could tap into a pool of 5.5m 15-24-year-olds who eat snacks between meals. Just 2.6m of them currently eat cereal bars, being the most likely age group to see the bars as boring and unsatisfying.

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Table of contents

  1. Issues in the Market

      • Key themes
        • Definition
          • Abbreviations
            • mySupermarket-Insights.co.uk
            • Future Opportunities

              • Quest for relevance
                • A confused market
                  • Simplicity is convenience
                    • A simple story and clear communication
                      • Grrranola bars
                        • Cutting through the clutter
                          • Shaking up the image
                            • Thinking outside the bar
                            • Market in Brief

                              • Market slows in 2009, forecast to regain momentum
                                • Healthy eating waning, but demographics promising
                                  • Most popular for snacking, cereal bars face stiff competition
                                    • New entrants drive product launches
                                      • Top two manufacturers hold half the market
                                        • Classic snacks the most popular
                                          • Snacking is top use for cereal bars
                                            • Convenient, not tasty?
                                              • ‘Not for me’ say two in five
                                              • Internal Market Environment

                                                • Key points
                                                  • Natural appeal waning
                                                    • Figure 1: Agreement that “I am prepared to pay more for foods that don’t contain artificial additives”, 2005-09
                                                  • The snack society
                                                    • Figure 2: Agreement that “I often eat between meals, I keep eating snacks”, 2005-09
                                                  • On-the-go opportunity
                                                    • Fibre-hunters
                                                        • Figure 3: Agreement that “I try to include plenty of fibre in my diet these days”, by selected demographics, 2009
                                                      • A slimming nation
                                                          • Figure 4: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements on diet, 2005-09
                                                        • The indulgence opportunity
                                                            • Figure 5: Agreement that “I like to treat myself to foods that aren’t good for me”, 2005-09
                                                          • Children’s advertising goes healthy
                                                            • And so do school lunches
                                                            • Broader Market Environment

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Consumer confidence and incomes
                                                                  • Figure 6: How respondents describe their financial situation, December 2009
                                                                  • Figure 7: Index of consumer expenditure, current prices, 2004-14
                                                                • More 25-34s is good news for cereal bars
                                                                    • Figure 8: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2009-14
                                                                  • Growth of ABs puts health and natural credentials in spotlight
                                                                      • Figure 9: Adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2004-14
                                                                    • Producer costs rise in 2008
                                                                      • Figure 10: UK commodity price of wheat, January 2004-November 2009
                                                                  • Competitive Context

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • The snack market is hotly competed
                                                                        • Figure 11: Performance of competing markets, 2005-09
                                                                      • Healthy snacks
                                                                          • Figure 12: Performance of competing ‘healthy’ markets, Index, 2005-09
                                                                        • Indulgent snacks
                                                                            • Figure 13: Performance of competing ‘indulgent’ markets, Index, 2005-09
                                                                          • Snacking on the go
                                                                            • Figure 14: Types of snacks eaten on the go most commonly, 2006 and 2008
                                                                        • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                          • Strengths
                                                                            • Weaknesses
                                                                            • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                • Range extensions take the lead in 2009
                                                                                  • Figure 15: NPD activity, by launch type in the UK cereal bar market, 2007-09
                                                                                • 100-calorie bars leap ahead
                                                                                    • Figure 16: NPD activity, top 16 claims in the UK cereal bar market, 2007-2009
                                                                                  • Fragmented launch activity
                                                                                    • Figure 17: Top ten companies, by NPD activity in the UK cereal bar market, 2007-09
                                                                                  • Berries take the lead
                                                                                    • Figure 18: NPD activity, top ten flavour component subgroups in the UK cereal bar market, 2007-09
                                                                                    • Figure 19: NPD activity, top ten flavour components in the UK cereal bar market, 2007-09
                                                                                  • A sharper health proposition
                                                                                    • Aiming for variety through segmentation
                                                                                    • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • 46% growth forecast over 2009-14
                                                                                          • Figure 20: UK retail value sales of cereal bars, and index of growth, 2004-14
                                                                                          • Figure 21: UK retail value sales of cereal bars, at current and constant prices, 2004-14
                                                                                        • Robust growth slows in 2009
                                                                                          • Market to regain steam
                                                                                            • Factors used in the forecast
                                                                                            • Segment Performance

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Everyday bars still lead
                                                                                                  • Figure 22: UK retail value sales of cereal bars, by type, 2009
                                                                                                • General bars large but lacklustre
                                                                                                  • Healthy bars strong
                                                                                                    • Children’s bars benefit from brand activity
                                                                                                      • Fragmented premium end
                                                                                                      • Market Share

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Apart from top two, a fragmented market
                                                                                                              • Figure 23: Manufacturers’ shares in UK retail value sales of cereal bars, 2009
                                                                                                            • Small bars with big backing leap ahead
                                                                                                              • Healthy bars continue to see robust growth
                                                                                                                • ‘Just snack’ bars lack steam
                                                                                                                  • Eat Natural robust despite top-end pitch
                                                                                                                    • Leading cereal bar brand's sales and market shares
                                                                                                                      • Figure 24: Brand shares in the cereal bar market, by value, 2007-09
                                                                                                                  • Companies and Products

                                                                                                                      • Figure 25: Leading manufacturers and brands in the UK cereal bar market, 2009
                                                                                                                    • Major players
                                                                                                                      • Eat Natural
                                                                                                                        • General Mills
                                                                                                                          • Jordans
                                                                                                                            • Kellogg’s
                                                                                                                              • Mars
                                                                                                                                • United Biscuits
                                                                                                                                  • Weetabix
                                                                                                                                  • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • Adspend cut in 2008, regains in 2009
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 26: Main monitored media advertising spend on cereal bars, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                      • Kellogg’s dominates ad spend
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 27: Main monitored media advertising spend on cereal bars, by holding company, 2007-09
                                                                                                                                      • TV remains channel of choice
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 28: Main monitored media advertising spend on cereal bars, by media channel, 2007-09
                                                                                                                                      • Three quarters of spend on three brands
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 29: Adspend by top ten brands in the cereal bars market, 2007-09
                                                                                                                                      • Bars look to engage users
                                                                                                                                        • Rambling and slimming
                                                                                                                                          • Sampling supports new launches
                                                                                                                                          • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Grocery multiples dominate
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 30: UK retail distribution of cereal bars, by value, by type of outlet, 2005, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                                                                              • 100+ lines at major grocers
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 31: Trends in online supermarket ranges of cereal bars, number of lines by retailer, December 2007-November 2009
                                                                                                                                              • Promotional activity on the rise
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Trends in online supermarket promotions on cereal bars, total number of lines on promotion, December 2007-November 2009
                                                                                                                                              • Own-label accounts for a tenth of lines
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Trends in online supermarket own-label ranges of cereal bars, number of own-label lines by grocer, December 2007-November 2009
                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Trends in and Frequency of Usage

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Cereal bar usage low at two in five
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Consumption of cereal bars in the last 12 months, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 35: Consumption of cereal bars, by frequency, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Most valuable consumers for volume sales of cereal bars, 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Two in three 11-14-year-olds eat snack bars weekly
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: Number of cereal bars eaten weekly, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Most valuable consumers for volume sales of cereal bars, 2009
                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer – Snack Preferences

                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                      • Crisps and cakes are favourite snacks
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Preferred snacks, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Few differences in favourites by age group
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Most popular snacks, by age group, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • 25-34-year-olds top users of healthy snacks
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 41: Types of snacks, by age group most likely to eat them, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                        • Who eats snack bars?
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Demographic groups the most and least likely to eat cereal bars, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Demographic groups the most and least likely to eat granola bars, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                      • Consumer – Occasions for Eating Cereal Bars

                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                          • Snacking remains main use
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 44: Occasions for eating cereal bars, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                            • One in three choose bars for one occasion only
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 45: Number of occasions for eating cereal bars, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cereal Bars

                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                              • A convenience food
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 46: Words or phrases associated with cereal bars, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Loved by users
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 47: Words or phrases associated, by users with cereal bars, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Foreign to non-users
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 48: Words or phrases associated, by non-users with cereal bars, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • 45-54-year-olds love snack bars
                                                                                                                                                                  • Consumer – Reasons for not Eating Cereal Bars

                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                      • “Not for me” say two in five
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: Reasons for not eating cereal bars as a snack, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Unsubstantial
                                                                                                                                                                          • Snack bars too sweet for women
                                                                                                                                                                            • Two in five put off by just one factor
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Repertoire of reasons for not eating cereal bars as a snack, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements on diet and health, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 52: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements on diet and health, by demographics, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements on diet and health, by demographics, 2009 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2004-14
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 55: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2004-14
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer – Trends in and Frequency of Usage

                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Consumption of cereal bars in the last 12 months, 2004-08
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 57: Consumption of cereal bars in the last 12 months, by demographics, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 58: Number of cereal bars eaten weekly, who buys them and location where eaten most, 2005-09
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 59: 11-14s who ever eat cereal bars, by demographics, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer – Snack Preferences

                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Preferred snacks, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 61: Preferred snacks, by demographics, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 62: Preferred snacks, by demographics (continued), December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 63: Preferred snacks, by demographics (continued), December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer – Occasions for Eating Cereal Bars

                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Occasions for eating cereal bars, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Occasions for eating cereal bars, by demographics, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Repertoire of occasions for eating cereal bars, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Repertoire of occasiong for eating cereal bars, by demographics, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 68: Occasions for eating cereal bars, by repertoire of occasions, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cereal Bars

                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Words or phrases associated with cereal bars, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 70: Words or phrases associate with cereal bars, by demographics, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Words or phrases associate with cereal bars, by demographics, December 2009 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 72: Words or phrases associate with cereal bars, by usage of cereal bars, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Consumer – Reasons for Not Eating Cereal Bars

                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 73: Reasons for not eating cereal bars as a snack, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 74: Reasons for not eating cereal bars as a snack, by demographics, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 75: Repertoire of reasons for not eating cereal bars as a snack, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 76: Repertoire of reasons for not eating cereal bars as a snack, by demographics, December 2009
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 77: Reasons for not eating cereal bars as a snack, by repertoire of reasons, December 2009

                                                                                                                                                                          Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                          • Aldi Stores Ltd (UK & Ireland)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Asda Group Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                          • Associated British Foods Plc
                                                                                                                                                                          • Blackstone Group (The)
                                                                                                                                                                          • British Market Research Bureau (BMRB)
                                                                                                                                                                          • British Sky Broadcasting Group plc (BSkyB)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Burton's Biscuit Company
                                                                                                                                                                          • Carman's Fine Foods Pty Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                          • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                          • Danone UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                          • Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
                                                                                                                                                                          • Food Standards Agency
                                                                                                                                                                          • Government Actuary's Department (GAD)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Häagen-Dazs
                                                                                                                                                                          • Honey Monster Foods
                                                                                                                                                                          • J. Sainsbury
                                                                                                                                                                          • Kellogg Company of GB Limited
                                                                                                                                                                          • Lidl (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Lion Capital
                                                                                                                                                                          • Marks & Spencer
                                                                                                                                                                          • Nature Valley
                                                                                                                                                                          • Nestlé UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                          • Ocado Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                          • Ofcom
                                                                                                                                                                          • Office for National Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                          • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                          • United Biscuits
                                                                                                                                                                          • Virgin Media Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                          • Wm Morrison Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                                                          Cereal Bars - UK - February 2010

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