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Cereal, Energy and Snack Bars - UK - March 2013

“Despite high promotional activity, the market continues to struggle with a weak value perception. Marketing initiatives that focus around the quality and nutritional benefits of the bars may therefore offer the most potential for operators to enhance the category’s value image.”

– Heidi Lanschützer, Food Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • What can manufacturers do to increase usage among the over-55s?
  • What key issues should the market address to encourage uptake of cereal bars among current non-users?
  • How can brands utilise the bars’ healthy image more effectively?
  • What inspiration can brands take from other markets to tap into the high interest in new types of bars?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

    • Definition
      • Abbreviations
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Figure 1: UK retail value sales of cereal, snack and energy bars, by type, 2011 vs 2012
          • Forecast
            • Figure 2: Forecast of UK retail sales of cereal, energy and snack bars (incl. breakfast biscuits), by value, 2007-17
          • Market factors
            • Consumers seek a more balanced way of eating
              • On-the-go snacking becomes more widespread
                • Demographic changes represent both opportunities and threats
                  • Companies, brands and innovation
                    • Kellogg’s loses share as competition intensifies
                      • Figure 3: Shares of leading brands in the cereal, energy and snack bars market (incl. breakfast biscuits), by value, 2012*
                    • NPD activity rises and remains dominated by brands
                      • Adspend rises considerably, driven by Kellogg’s and General Mills
                        • The consumer
                          • Usage of cereal bars rises
                            • Figure 4: Repertoire of consumption of brands of cereal, energy and snack bars (incl. breakfast biscuits) in the last six months, November 2012
                          • A focus on satiety and energy may help to drive sales of cereal bars
                            • Figure 5: Occasions for eating cereal, energy and snack bars (incl. breakfast biscuits), November 2012
                          • Cost and flavour are priority for users
                            • Figure 6: Factors influencing choice of cereal, energy and snack bars, November 2012
                          • Consumers’ interests revolve around nutrition and flavour innovation
                            • Figure 7: Users’ attitudes towards cereal, energy and snack bars (incl. breakfast biscuits), November 2012
                          • Value perception remains the main deterrent for non-users of cereal bars
                            • Figure 8: Non-users’ attitudes towards cereal, energy and snack bars, November 2012
                          • What we think
                          • Issues in the Market

                              • What can manufacturers do to increase usage among the over-55s?
                                • What key issues should the market address to encourage uptake of cereal bars among current non-users?
                                  • How can brands utilise the bars’ healthy image more effectively?
                                    • What inspiration can brands take from other markets to tap into the high interest in new types of bars?
                                    • Trend Application

                                        • Trend: FSTR/HYPR
                                          • Trend: A Simple Balance for Health
                                            • 2015 trend: Old Gold
                                            • Market Drivers

                                              • Key points
                                                • Consumer sentiment remains gloomy
                                                  • Figure 9: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index, January 2007-January 2013
                                                • Changing demographics create both opportunities and threats
                                                  • Figure 10: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2012-17
                                                • Lunchbox market remains challenging, however, lucrative for cereal bars
                                                  • Soaring input costs increase pressure on cereal bar manufacturers
                                                    • Growing on-the-go snacking represents key opportunity for cereal bars
                                                      • Health vs. indulgence – The battle continues
                                                        • Figure 11: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2008-12
                                                    • Competitive Context

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Cereal bars benefit from their guilt-free treat image…
                                                          • Figure 12: Performance of selected markets competing with cereal, energy and snack bars, by value, 2007-12
                                                        • …however, competition from snacks with stronger health or indulgence positioning increases
                                                        • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                          • Strengths
                                                            • Weaknesses
                                                            • Who’s Innovating?

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Cereal bars rank as second most active snacking category for NPD
                                                                  • Figure 13: The top ten snack* categories’ share of total new product launches in the UK snack market, 2009-12
                                                                • Kellogg’s recaptures position as top innovator in 2012
                                                                  • Figure 14: Product launches within the UK cereal, energy and snack bars market (incl. breakfast biscuits), by manufacturer, 2012
                                                                  • Figure 15: Own-label and brands’ share of product launches within the UK cereal, energy and snack bars market (incl. breakfast biscuits), 2009-12
                                                                • Added-value claims grow in 2012
                                                                  • Figure 16: Product launches in the UK cereal, snacks and energy bars market (incl. breakfast biscuits), by claims, 2011 and 2012
                                                                • Key themes
                                                                  • Indulgent flavours on the rise
                                                                    • Figure 17: Leading flavour components in new cereal, energy and snack bars (incl. breakfast biscuits), 2011 and 2012
                                                                  • Breakfast biscuits category continues to grow…
                                                                    • ...with Belvita continuing to dominate NPD activity
                                                                      • International innovation
                                                                      • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Market growth accelerates further in 2012…
                                                                            • Figure 18: UK retail sales of cereal, energy and snack bars, by value, 2007-17
                                                                          • …driven by a handful of key brands and high NPD activity
                                                                            • Forecast
                                                                              • Figure 19: Forecast of UK retail sales of cereal, energy and snack bars (incl. breakfast biscuits), by value, 2007-17
                                                                              • Figure 20: Forecast of UK retail sales of cereal, energy and snack bars (incl. breakfast biscuits), by volume, 2007-17
                                                                            • Drivers of future performance
                                                                              • Forecast methodology
                                                                              • Segment Performance

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Cereal/granola bars continue to account for bulk of sales in 2012…
                                                                                    • …however, breakfast biscuits are gaining share
                                                                                      • Figure 21: UK retail value sales of cereal, snack and energy bars, by type, 2011 vs 2012
                                                                                      • Figure 22: Segment breakdown for cereal, energy and snack bars, 2012
                                                                                    • Fruit bars face competition from fresh fruit
                                                                                      • Eat Natural drives success of nut/seed bars
                                                                                      • Market Share

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Belvita and Nature Valley end Kellogg’s brands’ leadership
                                                                                            • Figure 23: Shares of leading brands in the cereal, energy and snack bars market (incl. breakfast biscuits), by value, 2012*
                                                                                          • Belvita sales skyrocket
                                                                                            • Figure 24: Leading brand shares in the cereal, energy and snack bars market (incl. breakfast biscuits), by value, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                            • Figure 25: Leading brand shares in the cereal, energy and snack bars market (incl. breakfast biscuits), by volume, 2011 and 2012
                                                                                          • Kellogg’s dominance in the market starts to erode
                                                                                            • All-natural proposition is thriving, however, brands without clear positioning under increased pressure
                                                                                              • Own-label still struggles to stand its ground
                                                                                              • Companies and Products

                                                                                                • Eat Natural
                                                                                                  • General Mills
                                                                                                    • Kellogg’s
                                                                                                      • Kraft Foods/Mondelēz International
                                                                                                        • United Biscuits
                                                                                                          • Weetabix
                                                                                                          • Brand Research

                                                                                                            • Brand map
                                                                                                                • Figure 26: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the cereal, energy and snack bar sector, December 2012
                                                                                                              • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Attitudes by cereal, energy and snack bar brand, December 2012
                                                                                                                • Brand personality
                                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Cereal, energy and snack bar brand personality – macro image, December 2012
                                                                                                                  • Figure 29: Cereal, energy and snack bar brand personality – micro image, December 2012
                                                                                                                • Brand experience
                                                                                                                  • Figure 30: Cereal, energy and snack bar brand usage, December 2012
                                                                                                                  • Figure 31: Satisfaction with various cereal, energy and snack bar brands, December 2012
                                                                                                                  • Figure 32: Consideration of cereal, energy and snack bar brands, December 2012
                                                                                                                  • Figure 33: Consumer perceptions of current cereal, energy and snack bar brand performance, December 2012
                                                                                                                  • Figure 34: Cereal, energy and snack bar brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, December 2012
                                                                                                                • Brand index
                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Cereal, energy and snack bar brand index, December 2012
                                                                                                                  • Figure 36: Cereal, energy and snack bar brand index vs. recommendation, December 2012
                                                                                                                • Target group analysis
                                                                                                                  • Figure 37: Target groups, December 2012
                                                                                                                  • Figure 38: Cereal, energy and snack bar brand usage, by target groups, December 2012
                                                                                                                • Group One – Conformists
                                                                                                                  • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                                    • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                                      • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                                        • Group Five – Individualists
                                                                                                                          • Appendix – Brand Research
                                                                                                                            • Figure 39: Brand usage, December 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Brand commitment, December 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Brand momentum, December 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Brand diversity, December 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Brand satisfaction, December 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Brand recommendation, December 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 45: Brand attitude, December 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 46: Brand image – macro image, December 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Brand image – micro image, December 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Profile of target groups, by demographics, December 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 49: Psychographic segmentation by target groups, December 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 50: Brand usage by target groups, December 2012
                                                                                                                          • Brand index
                                                                                                                            • Figure 51: Brand index, December 2012
                                                                                                                        • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Adspend picks up in 2012
                                                                                                                              • Figure 52: Total advertising expenditure in the cereal, energy and snack bars market (incl. breakfast biscuits), 2009-12
                                                                                                                            • Breakfast biscuits add new dynamics to category
                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: Total advertising expenditure in the cereal, energy and snack bars market, by segment, 2009-12
                                                                                                                            • Top three advertisers increase adspend
                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: Total advertising expenditure in the cereal, energy and snack bars market (incl. breakfast biscuits), by top ten advertisers, 2009-12
                                                                                                                            • Kellogg’s brands dominate advertising activity
                                                                                                                              • Figure 55: Advertising expenditure in the cereal, energy and snack bars market (incl. breakfast biscuits), by top five brands, 2012
                                                                                                                            • Advertisers continue to favour TV advertising for above-the-line activity
                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Advertising expenditure in the cereal, energy and snack bars market (incl. breakfast biscuits), by media type, 2009-12
                                                                                                                          • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Supermarket giants dominate sales…
                                                                                                                                • Figure 57: Retail distribution of cereal, energy and snack bars, by outlet type, 2009-12
                                                                                                                              • …and are further increasing their stake by expanding into the impulse segment
                                                                                                                              • Consumer – Usage of Cereal, Energy and Snack Bars by Type

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Usage of cereal bars edges up over 2011 and 2012
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Usage and purchase of cereal, energy and snack bars (incl. breakfast biscuits) in the last six months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Cracking the over-55s can open new avenues of growth
                                                                                                                                      • Majority of users appear to be brand-loyal
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 59: Repertoire of consumption of brands of cereal, energy and snack bars (incl. breakfast biscuits) in the last six months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                    • Consumer – Usage of Cereal, Energy and Snack Bars by Occasion

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Greater focus on satiety may help to drive sales of cereal bars
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 60: Occasions for eating cereal, energy and snack bars (incl. breakfast biscuits), November 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Tapping into the treat occasion appears promising
                                                                                                                                            • Capitalising on the tea occasion may help drive cereal bar consumption among the over-55s
                                                                                                                                            • Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Price holds a slim lead ahead of flavour
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 61: Factors influencing choice of cereal, energy and snack bars, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                  • Flavour innovation crucial to maintain consumer interest
                                                                                                                                                    • Combining naturalness with health proposition may help to justify price premium
                                                                                                                                                    • Consumer – Users’ Attitudes towards Cereal, Energy and Snack Bars

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • Nutrition and flavour innovation spark majority interest
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 62: Users’ attitudes towards cereal, energy and snack bars (incl. breakfast biscuits), November 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Nutritional benefits spark interest among majority of users
                                                                                                                                                            • Value-for-money perception of cereal bars has improved considerably
                                                                                                                                                              • Boosting the on-the-go occasion for breakfast biscuits
                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer – Non-Users’ Attitudes towards Cereal, Energy and Snack Bars

                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                  • Doubts about value for money, healthiness and taste remain key barriers
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 63: Non-users’ attitudes towards cereal, energy and snack bars, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Poor value perception remains issue for cereal bars
                                                                                                                                                                      • One in four non-users do not buy into the health positioning of cereal bars
                                                                                                                                                                        • Greater focus on indulgence may convince male non-users
                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                            • Four target groups
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Target groups for cereal, energy and snack bars, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                            • Adventurous (22%)
                                                                                                                                                                              • Bar Lovers (24%)
                                                                                                                                                                                • Health Benefit Seekers (26%)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Disengaged (28%)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market Drivers

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 65: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Best- and worst-case forecasts for cereal, snack and energy bars, by value, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Best- and worst-case forecasts for cereal, snack and energy bars, by volume, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Brand usage, December 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 69: Brand commitment, December 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 70: Brand momentum, December 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Brand diversity, December 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 72: Brand satisfaction, December 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Brand recommendation, December 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Brand attitude, December 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 75: Brand image – macro image, December 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 76: Brand image – micro image, December 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 77: Profile of target groups, by demographics, December 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 78: Psychographic segmentation by target groups, December 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 79: Brand usage by target groups, December 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Brand index
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 80: Brand index, December 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 81: Total advertising expenditure in the cereal, energy and snack bars market (incl. breakfast biscuits), by top brands*, 2009-12
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Cereal, Energy and Snack Bars by Type

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 82: Most popular cereal, energy and snack bars purchased in the last six months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 83: Most popular types of cereal, snack and energy bars purchased in the last six months, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 84: Next most popular types of cereal, snack and energy bars purchased in the last six months, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 85: Other types of cereal, snack and energy bars purchased in the last six months, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 86: Most popular cereal, energy and snack bars consumed in the last six months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 87: Most popular types of cereal, snack and energy bars consumed in the last six months, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 88: Next most popular types of cereal, snack and energy bars consumed in the last six months, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 89: Other types of cereal, snack and energy bars consumed in the last six months, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 90: Repertoire of purchase of cereal, snack and energy bars in the last six months, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 91: Types of cereal, snack and energy bars purchased in the last six months, by purchase repertoire, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Cereal, Snack and Energy Bars by Occasion

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 92: Occasions for eating cereal, snack and energy bars, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 93: Most popular occasions for eating cereal, snack and energy bars, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 94: Next most popular occasions for eating cereal, snack and energy bars, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 95: Trends in agreement with the statement ‘I like to treat myself to foods that are not good for me’, 2008-12
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 96: Agreement with the statement ‘I like to treat myself to foods that are not good for me’, by demographics, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 97: Occasions for eating cereal, snack and energy bars, by most popular types of cereal, snack and energy bars purchased in the last six months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 98: Occasions for eating cereal, snack and energy bars, by next most popular types of cereal, snack and energy bars purchased in the last six months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 99: Occasions for eating cereal, snack and energy bars, by other types of cereal, snack and energy bars purchased in the last six months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 100: Occasions for eating cereal, snack and energy bars, by most popular types of cereal, snack and energy bars consumed in the last six months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 101: Occasions for eating cereal, snack and energy bars, by next most popular types of cereal, snack and energy bars consumed in the last six months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 102: Occasions for eating cereal, snack and energy bars, by other types of cereal, snack and energy bars consumed in the last six months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 103: Most popular factors considered when choosing cereal, snack and energy bars, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 104: Next most popular factors considered when choosing cereal, snack and energy bars, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 105: Occasions for eating cereal, snack and energy bars, by most popular factors considered when choosing cereal, snack and energy bars, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 106: Occasions for eating cereal, snack and energy bars, by next most popular factors considered when choosing cereal, snack and energy bars, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 107: Attitudes towards cereal, snack and energy bars, by most popular factors considered when choosing cereal, snack and energy bars, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 108: Attitudes towards cereal, snack and energy bars, by next most popular factors considered when choosing cereal, snack and energy bars, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer – Users’ Attitudes Towards Cereal, Energy and Snack Bars

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 109: Attitudes towards cereal, snack and energy bars, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 110: Agreement with the statements ‘Cereal/snack bars make for a good guilt-free treat’ and ‘I trust the health claims of cereal/snack bars’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 111: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to see a wider range of bars with added health benefits’ and ‘I like to try new types of cereal/snack/energy bars’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 112: Agreement with the statements ‘Breakfast biscuits provide a nourishing start to the day’ and ‘Cereal/snack bars are good for breakfast on the go’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 113: Agreement with the statements ‘Own-label cereal/snack/energy bars are just as good as branded varieties’ and ‘Cereal/snack bars are good value for money’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 114: Agreement with the statements ‘Cereal/snack bars with natural ingredients are worth paying more for’ and ‘I would like to see more cereal/snack bars high in protein’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 115: Agreement with the statements ‘I find cereal/snack bars inspired by dessert flavours appealing’ and ‘Cereal, snack and energy bars are too processed’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Non-users’ Attitudes Towards Cereal, Energy and Snack Bars

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 116: Non-users’ attitudes towards cereal, snack and energy bars, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 117: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2008-12
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 118: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 119: Attitudes towards cereal, snack and energy bars, by target groups, by ‘any agree’, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 120: Attitudes towards cereal, snack and energy bars, by target groups, by ‘any disagree’, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 121: Purchase and consumption of cereal, snack and energy bars in the last six months, by type, by target groups, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 122: Occasions for eating cereal, snack and energy bars, by target groups, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 123: Factors considered when choosing cereal, snack and energy bars, by target groups, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 124: Target groups, by demographics, November 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Bright Food Co Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cadbury Trebor Bassett
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Eat Natural Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                  • General Mills Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Häagen-Dazs
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Intersnack UK
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Kellogg Company of GB Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Kraft Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Kraft Foods UK
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Lion Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Nature Valley
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Nectar
                                                                                                                                                                                  • PAI Partners
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Twitter, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                  • United Biscuits
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Weetabix Ltd.

                                                                                                                                                                                  Cereal, Energy and Snack Bars - UK - March 2013

                                                                                                                                                                                  £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)