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Children's Footwear - US - March 2017

"The children’s footwear market is driven largely by replacement purchasing, yet a stable economy could result in more discretionary purchases. It may impact how often parents purchase children’s shoes, when they do so, how many pairs they buy, and if they are willing to spend more for special features. A steady stream of advertising and promotional communication is necessary to keep brands top-of-mind and inform parents about sales, new offerings, service enhancements, and more. The market is set to grow mildly, so competitive pressures are sure to be rampant as retailers and brands all clamber to get a piece of a small pie."
- Diana Smith, Associate Director - Retail & Apparel

This Report discusses the following key topics:

  • Sales continue to climb slowly upward
  • Need to try on drives in-store purchasing up
  • Casual is still “in”

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Sales continue to climb slowly upward
            • Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of children’s footwear, at current prices, 2011-21
          • Need to try on drives in-store purchasing up
            • Figure 2: Top five channels and retailers shopped for children’s footwear, October 2016
          • Casual is still “in”
            • Figure 3: Top five types of children’s footwear purchased, October 2016
          • The opportunities
            • Remain seasonless
              • Figure 4: Reasons for purchase, by gender, October 2016
            • Make shoe shopping fun for kids
              • Figure 5: Important attributes, by gender, October 2016
            • Keep the brand top of mind
              • Figure 6: Purchase incentives, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2016
            • What it means
            • The Market – What You Need to Know

              • Slow but steady growth anticipated
                • Birthrate stabilization will help
                  • Let’s “wait and see” what happens
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • More of the same expected in the coming years
                      • Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of children’s footwear, at current prices, 2011-21
                      • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of children's footwear, at current prices, 2011-21
                  • Market Factors

                    • Consumer factors
                      • Kid population fueled by the youngest segment
                        • Figure 9: Population of kids, by age group, 2017-22
                      • The most diverse generations
                        • Figure 10: Distribution of kids population, by age and race/Hispanic origin, 2016
                      • Millennial parents hold great influence
                        • Birthrates holding steady
                          • Figure 11: Annual birth and fertility rates, 2006-15
                        • Fewer households with children
                          • Figure 12: Percentage of households, by presence of related children, 2006-16
                        • Changes in family dynamics can impact purchase behaviors
                          • Figure 13: Percentage of parents with children under age 18 in the household, by living arrangement, 2016
                        • Obesity still a major issue, but Americans trying to be healthier
                          • Macroeconomic factors
                            • Family household income improves
                              • Figure 14: Median household income of families with related children, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2004-14
                            • Consumer confidence soars while unemployment falls
                              • Figure 15: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-17
                            • Many consumers in “wait and see” mode postelection
                                • Figure 16: How consumers rate their financial situation, November 2016
                            • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                              • Athletic shoes and stores on a good run
                                • Abundance of choice means some brands will struggle
                                  • Cause marketing a common strategy
                                    • If the shoe fits…
                                    • What’s Working?

                                      • Athletic brands/stores faring well
                                        • Giving kids a say
                                          • Shoes for a cause
                                            • In parents’ words
                                              • Indifferent
                                                • Opinionated
                                                • What’s Struggling?

                                                  • Some brands struggle in current retail landscape
                                                    • Crocs
                                                      • Stride Rite
                                                        • Shoes.com
                                                          • Payless
                                                          • What’s Next?

                                                            • Shoes are getting fancy
                                                              • 3D Printing
                                                                • Wearable technology
                                                                  • Going vegan
                                                                    • Sister-sister designs
                                                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                      • Dads are the real softies
                                                                        • New shoes again?
                                                                          • Specialized shoe stores may have a “foot” up
                                                                            • Advertising serves as strong reminder communication
                                                                            • Purchase Incidence

                                                                                • Age more of a factor than gender
                                                                                  • Figure 17: Purchase incidence, October 2016
                                                                                • Dads play a bigger role when kids are older
                                                                                  • Figure 18: Purchase incidence, by gender, October 2016
                                                                                • Blacks are planning to spend more on footwear for BTS
                                                                                  • Figure 19: Purchase incidence, by race and Hispanic origin, October 2016
                                                                                • Average annual spending hovers close to $100
                                                                                  • Figure 20: Amount spent on shoes/footwear, by age of child, July 2015-August 2016
                                                                              • Types of Footwear Purchased

                                                                                  • Athletic shoes dominate the market
                                                                                    • Figure 21: Types of footwear purchased, October 2016
                                                                                  • Regional variations offer opportunity for localization of merchandise
                                                                                    • Figure 22: Types of footwear purchased, by region, October 2016
                                                                                  • Gender drives shoe choice, but will this evolve as gender-neutral apparel becomes more apparent?
                                                                                    • Figure 23: Types of footwear purchased, by gender and age of child, October 2016
                                                                                  • In their words
                                                                                  • Reasons for Purchase

                                                                                      • Replenishment is main reason for purchase
                                                                                        • Figure 24: Reasons for purchase, October 2016
                                                                                        • Figure 25: Reasons for replacement, by age of child, October 2016
                                                                                      • Are dads the real softies?
                                                                                        • Figure 26: Reasons for purchase, by gender, October 2016
                                                                                      • Seasonality a factor, but not to major degree
                                                                                      • Retailers Shopped

                                                                                          • Specialized shoe stores important part of shopping journey
                                                                                            • Figure 27: Retailers shopped, October 2016
                                                                                            • Figure 28: Retailers shopped, by age of child, October 2016
                                                                                          • Kids need to try on shoes; leads to high in-store shopping rates…
                                                                                            • …but online shoe shopping is gaining ground
                                                                                              • Open to buying online
                                                                                                • Hesitant about buying online
                                                                                                  • Resale market less of an opportunity for footwear compared to clothing
                                                                                                    • Open-minded
                                                                                                      • Hesitant or against buying pre-owned footwear
                                                                                                      • Important Attributes

                                                                                                          • Style does matter
                                                                                                            • Figure 29: Important attributes, October 2016
                                                                                                          • Ancillary features are nice-to-have but not essential
                                                                                                            • Dads are drawn to these little extras
                                                                                                              • Figure 30: Select important attributes, by gender, October 2016
                                                                                                            • It’s worth it to pay more for quality
                                                                                                              • Figure 31: Attitudes toward footwear, July 2016
                                                                                                          • Purchase Incentives

                                                                                                              • Advertising helps to keep brands top-of-mind
                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Purchase incentives – Advertising, October 2016
                                                                                                              • Coupons still hold ample influence
                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Purchase incentives – Coupons, October 2016
                                                                                                              • Influence of advertising and coupons rises with HHI
                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Purchase incentives – Advertising versus coupons, by household income, October 2016
                                                                                                              • User reviews prompt one in five consumers to shop
                                                                                                                • Figure 35: Other purchase incentives, by key demographics, October 2016
                                                                                                            • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                                              • Data sources
                                                                                                                • Sales data
                                                                                                                  • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                                    • Consumer survey data
                                                                                                                      • Consumer qualitative research
                                                                                                                        • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                            • Terms
                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Market

                                                                                                                                • Figure 36: Total US retail sales and forecast of children's footwear, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
                                                                                                                                • Figure 37: Population of boys and girls, by age group, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                • Figure 38: Population by age, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                • Figure 39: Population by generation, 2012-22
                                                                                                                                • Figure 40: Annual births and fertility rate, 2003-15
                                                                                                                                • Figure 41: Births and fertility rates, by race and Hispanic origin, 2003-14
                                                                                                                                • Figure 42: Households, by presence and ages of own children, 2016
                                                                                                                                • Figure 43: Percentage of births to unmarried women, 2000-15
                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Percentage of youth with overweight or obese BMI, by age, gender, and race/Hispanic origin, 2011-12
                                                                                                                                • Figure 45: Median household income, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2005-15
                                                                                                                                • Figure 46: Median household income, by type of household, 2015
                                                                                                                                • Figure 47: Living arrangements of children under age 18, by race and Hispanic origin, 2016
                                                                                                                            • Appendix – Consumer

                                                                                                                              • Shopping influencers
                                                                                                                                • Figure 48: Back-to-school shopping influencers – Parents, October 2016
                                                                                                                              • Additional qualitative research

                                                                                                                              Companies Covered

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                                                                                                                              Children's Footwear - US - March 2017

                                                                                                                              US $3,995.00 (Excl.Tax)