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Children's Social Care - UK - February 2017

“The fragmented allocation of funding for parental and family support services, the majority of which comes via targeted, time-limited central government grants and not core LA budgets, makes strategic planning difficult and raises doubts over the long-term sustainability of running such services. This provides further difficulties for both commissioners and providers in how they distribute and access funding, as well as long-term planning.”
– Lewis Cone, B2B Analyst

This Report answers the following key questions:

  • How are financial pressures affecting the market?
  • Are fostering services managing to deal with demand for placements?
  • What is likely to drive future growth?

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Table of contents

  1. Executive Summary

      • Market size
        • Figure 1: UK market for children’s social care, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
        • Figure 2: Segmentation of UK market for children’s social care, by country, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
        • Figure 3: Number of children looked after, by country, 2016, (% of UK total)
        • Figure 4: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of care, 2012/13 and 2016/17, (% of total market)
      • Market trends
        • Figure 5: UK children’s home placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2012/13-2016/17, (number of children and £000)
        • Figure 6: Children’s homes in England, at 31 March 2016, by region and type of provision, (% of homes)
        • Figure 7: UK foster care placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2012/13-2016/17, (number of Children and £000)
        • Figure 8: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of provider, 2012/13-2016/17, (% of total provision)
      • Government leading drive to install new delivery model
        • Referrals to children’s social care fell for the second consecutive year in 2015/16, while completed initial assessments rose for a second time
          • Figure 9: Number of referrals and initial assessments from referrals to children’s social care, England, 2011/12-2015/16, (number)
        • London is home to the most social workers but also has the highest staff turnover
          • Market factors
            • Funding pressures are influencing the provision of services
              • Government begins market reform that aims to rejuvenate performance and outcomes
                • Companies
                  • Forecast
                    • Diminishing rate of growth expected to 2021 due to external economic factors
                      • Figure 10: UK market forecast for children’s social care, 2017/18-2021/22, (£ million)
                    • Special education spend expected to slow but still account for largest proportion of total market expenditure
                      • Figure 11: UK market segmentation forecast for children’s social care, by type of care, 2017/18-2021/22, (£ million)
                    • What we think
                    • Key Insights

                        • How are financial pressures affecting the market?
                          • Are fostering services managing to deal with demand for placements?
                            • What is likely to drive future growth?
                            • Introduction

                                • Definitions
                                  • Methodology
                                    • Abbreviations
                                      • Market positioning
                                      • UK Economy

                                        • Key points
                                          • Overview
                                            • Figure 12: UK GDP, 2006-16, (% quarterly growth and GDP in £ billion)
                                            • Figure 13: UK output, by industry, 2008-16, (Index 2013 = 100)
                                            • Figure 14: Quarters after GDP peak, 1979, 1990 and 2008, (number of quarters and GDP as % of pre-downturn peak)
                                          • Inflation
                                            • Interest rates
                                              • House prices
                                                • Figure 15: UK house price changes, 2006-16, (12-month % change)
                                              • Consumer spending
                                                • Manufacturing
                                                  • Figure 16: UK manufacturing, 2014-16, (Index, 2013 = 100)
                                                • Business investment
                                                  • Figure 17: UK GFCF 2005-16, (£ million)
                                                • Imports
                                                  • Exports
                                                  • Market Factors

                                                    • Key points
                                                      • Funding pressures are influencing the provision of services
                                                        • Push and pull factors leading to a rise in the number of care proceedings initiated in court
                                                          • Government begins market reform to rejuvenate performance and outcomes
                                                            • Industry’s existing barriers to market entry still restricting development
                                                              • Legislation
                                                              • Market Size and Trends

                                                                • Key points
                                                                    • Figure 18: UK market for children’s social care, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
                                                                    • Figure 19: UK market for children’s social care, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
                                                                  • Regional analysis
                                                                    • Figure 20: Segmentation of UK market for children’s social care, by country, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
                                                                    • Figure 21: Segmentation of UK market for children’s social care, by country, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
                                                                    • Figure 22: Number of children looked after, by country, 2012-16, (number of children)
                                                                    • Figure 23: number of children looked after, by country, 2016, (% of UK total)
                                                                    • Figure 24: Number of children looked after in England, by age and gender, as of 31 March, 2012-2016, (number of children)
                                                                    • Figure 25: Number of children looked after in Scotland, by age and gender, as of 31 July, 2012-16, (number of children)
                                                                    • Figure 26: Number of children looked after in wales, by age and gender, as of 31 March, 2012-16, (number of children)
                                                                    • Figure 27: Number of children looked after in the UK, by age and country, as of 31 March (rest of UK) and 31 July (Scotland), 2016, (% of children looked after)
                                                                • Market Segmentation

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Introduction
                                                                      • Residential care
                                                                        • Foster care
                                                                          • Special education
                                                                              • Figure 28: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of care, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
                                                                              • Figure 29: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of care, 2012/13 and 2016/17, (% of total market)
                                                                              • Figure 30: Number of children looked after, at 31 March and 31 July, by placement type, UK, 2012-16, (number of children)
                                                                            • Independent vs public supply
                                                                              • Figure 31: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of provider, 2012/13-2016/17, (% and £ million)
                                                                              • Figure 32: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by type of provider, 2012/13-2016/17, (% of total provision)
                                                                              • Figure 33: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by sector and type of provider, 2012/13-2016/17, (% and £ million)
                                                                              • Figure 34: Segmentation of the UK market for children’s social care, by sector and type of provider, 2012/13 and 2016/17, (% of total sector value)
                                                                            • Children’s homes
                                                                                • Figure 35: UK children’s home placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2012/13-2016/17, (number of children and £ 000)
                                                                                • Figure 36: UK children’s home placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2012/13-2016/17, (number of children and £ 000)
                                                                                • Figure 37: Number of children in children’s homes in Scotland, 2012-16, (number of children)
                                                                                • Figure 38: Children’s homes in England, at 31 March 2016, by region, (number)
                                                                                • Figure 39: Children’s homes in England, at 31 March 2016, by region and type of provision, (% of homes)
                                                                              • Fostering services
                                                                                  • Figure 40: UK foster care placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2012/13-2016/17, (number of children and £ 000)
                                                                                  • Figure 41: UK foster care placements and average annual cost, at 31 March of each year (England, Wales and Northern Ireland) and 31 July of each year (Scotland), 2012/13-2016/17, (number of children and £000)
                                                                                  • Figure 42: Foster placements in England, at 31 March of each year, by placement type and location, 2012-16, (number of children)
                                                                                  • Figure 43: UK fostering rates, 2016/17 and 2017/18, (£ per week)
                                                                                • Special education
                                                                                    • Figure 44: UK market for SEN care, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
                                                                                    • Figure 45: UK market for SEN care, 2012/13-2016/17, (£ million)
                                                                                    • Figure 46: Students with special educational needs, by school type, England, 2012/13-2016/17, (number of children and % of pupils in each school type)
                                                                                    • Figure 47: Students with special educational needs, by academy type, England, 2014-16, (number of children and % of pupils in each academy type)
                                                                                • Market Trends

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Government leading drive to install new delivery model...
                                                                                      • ... though the shift towards independent trusts has been met with some resistance
                                                                                          • Figure 48: Referrals and initial assessments to children’s social care, England, 2011/12-2015/16, (number and rate per 10,000 children under 18 years)
                                                                                          • Figure 49: Number of referrals and initial assessments from referrals to children’s social care, England, 2011/12-2015/16, (number)
                                                                                          • Figure 50: Referrals to children’s social care, England, by most common source of referral, 2015/16, (%)
                                                                                          • Figure 51: Initial assessments to children’s social care, England, by most common primary need, 2015/16, (%)
                                                                                        • Children in poorer communities more likely to enter care system
                                                                                          • London is home to the most social workers, but also has the highest staff turnover
                                                                                            • Figure 52: Children’s social care workers in England, 2016, (number of fte workers and % turnover rate)
                                                                                            • Figure 53: Children’s social care workers in England, 2016, (number of FTE workers and % turnover rate)
                                                                                          • Growth in fostering care demand remains unsustainable
                                                                                          • Industry Structure

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Industry Development
                                                                                                • Ofsted inspections imply slight annual decline in number of homes
                                                                                                  • Number of secure units remains constant after slight decline over previous years
                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Number of secure children’s homes in the UK, by country, 2012-16, (number)
                                                                                                  • Independent provision of services on the rise
                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Proportion of all children’s homes in England run by state or independent organisations, by region, as of 30 September 2016, (%)
                                                                                                    • Industry structure
                                                                                                      • Figure 56: Analysis of the changes in the structure of other residential care activities, 2012-16, (number of outlets and businesses)
                                                                                                      • Figure 57: Analysis of changes in the structure of ‘other residential care activities’, 2012-16, (number of outlets and businesses)
                                                                                                      • Figure 58: Analysis of the changes in the structure of other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c., 2012-16, (number of outlets and businesses)
                                                                                                    • Structure by employment
                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Analysis of the employment structure of ‘other residential care activities’, 2015 and 2016, (number of employees and outlets)
                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Analysis of the employment structure of other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c., 2015 and 2016, (number of employees and outlets)
                                                                                                    • Structure by turnover
                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Analysis of the financial structure of other residential care activities, 2015 and 2016, (£000 and number of businesses)
                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Analysis of the financial structure of other social work activities without accommodation n.e.c., 2015 and 2016, (£000 and number of businesses)
                                                                                                  • Company Profiles

                                                                                                    • Acorn Care and Education

                                                                                                          • Figure 63: Financial analysis of acorn care and education, 2011-15, (£ 000)
                                                                                                          • Figure 64: Financial analysis of fostering solutions, 2011-15, (£ 000)
                                                                                                        • Company strategy
                                                                                                        • Cambian Childcare (Formerly Advanced Childcare)

                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Financial analysis of Cambian Childcare Limited, 2011-15, (£ 000)
                                                                                                            • Company strategy
                                                                                                            • Foster Care Associates (Formerly Core Assets)

                                                                                                                  • Figure 66: Financial analysis of Foster Care Associates (formerly traded under Core Assets Group), 2011-15, (£ 000)
                                                                                                                • Company strategy
                                                                                                                • Kedleston Education

                                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Financial analysis of Kedleston Education, 2012-15, (£ 000)
                                                                                                                    • Company strategy
                                                                                                                    • Keys Group

                                                                                                                          • Figure 68: Financial analysis of Keys Group, 2012-16, (£ 000)
                                                                                                                        • Company strategy
                                                                                                                        • The National Autistic Society

                                                                                                                              • Figure 69: Financial analysis of the National Autistic Society, 2012-16, (£ 000)
                                                                                                                            • Company strategy
                                                                                                                            • National Fostering Agency

                                                                                                                                  • Figure 70: Financial analysis of the National Fostering Agency, 2012-16, (£ 000)
                                                                                                                                • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                • Priory Group

                                                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Financial analysis of the Priory Group, 2011-2015, (£ Million)
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 72: Financial analysis of the Priory Education Services, 2011-2015, (£ 000)
                                                                                                                                    • Group strategy
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Profiled companies’ combined turnover, 2011-15, (£ million)
                                                                                                                                  • Forecast

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • Market size
                                                                                                                                        • Diminishing rate of growth expected to 2021 due to external economic factors
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 74: UK market forecast for children’s social care, 2017/18-2021/22, (£ million)
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 75: UK market forecast for children’s social care, 2017/18-2021/22, (£ million)
                                                                                                                                        • Market segmentation
                                                                                                                                          • Special education spend expected to slow but still account for largest proportion of total market expenditure
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 76: UK market segmentation forecast for children’s social care, by type of care, 2017/18-2021/22, (£ million)
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 77: UK market segmentation forecast for children’s social care, by type of care, 2017/18-2021/22, (£ million)
                                                                                                                                          • Increasing adoption rates could improve market efficiency and better allocate finances
                                                                                                                                            • Improving the way that social care workers operate in the market can aid future development
                                                                                                                                              • Additional funds released to improve innovation in the market
                                                                                                                                              • Further Sources and Contacts

                                                                                                                                                • Trade associations
                                                                                                                                                  • Association of Directors of Children’s Services Ltd (ADCS)
                                                                                                                                                    • CoramBAAF Academy of Adoption and Fostering
                                                                                                                                                      • Independent Children’s Homes Association (ICHA)
                                                                                                                                                        • Nasen
                                                                                                                                                          • Nationwide Association of Fostering Providers (NAFP)
                                                                                                                                                            • National Children’s Bureau (NCB)
                                                                                                                                                              • National Portage Association
                                                                                                                                                                • Trade magazines
                                                                                                                                                                  • Child Care (Monthly)
                                                                                                                                                                    • Children & Young People Now (Fortnightly)
                                                                                                                                                                      • Social Work News (Quarterly)
                                                                                                                                                                        • Who Cares? (Quarterly)
                                                                                                                                                                          • Trade Exhibitions
                                                                                                                                                                            • ADCS Annual Conference 2017
                                                                                                                                                                              • Community Care Live Manchester 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                • National Children and Adult Services Conference 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Skills for Care Annual Conference 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                  Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                  To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                  Children's Social Care - UK - February 2017

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