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Chocolate Confectionery - Canada - April 2015

“Demographic changes in Canada are likely to impact the chocolate confectionery industry. While an aging population presents challenges, this may be offset a Millennial cohort entering into their family and therefore ‘prime chocolate eating’ years. Canada’s increasing reliance on immigration for population growth can also translate into an avenue of category evolution given chocolate’s popularity among Chinese Canadians.”
– Joel Gregoire, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

  • Canada’s aging population presents challenges for chocolate 
  • Women have different expectations of chocolate
  • Chinese Canadians are a benefit for chocolate confectionery
  • Focus on families should continue

Highly popular among Canadians, 93% eat chocolate bars with similarly high adoption rates among other formats such as bagged or boxed chocolates. Despite near universal appeal, opportunity for growth remains by driving frequency with just over half of the population eating chocolate bars at least a few times per month. Correspondingly, frequency levels drop notably across other formats examined, bottoming out among chocolates sold in bulk or loose form.

Canada’s evolving ethnic make-up can also support category growth. As this report examines, Chinese Canadians support an even higher adoption rate of chocolate versus the overall population. Adapting new product innovation, developing focused and relevant messaging and promoting Eastern holidays, such as Chinese New Year, can result in competitive advantages among this growing consumer base.

This report explores the profile and habits of Canadian chocolate consumers; including the frequency they eat chocolate, what influences their purchase decisions, the importance of different occasions and locations and factors that lead consumers to choose one chocolate over another. This report also examines attitudes towards the category across various demographic groups and identifies opportunities for innovation.

 

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Methodology
          • Abbreviations
          • Executive Summary

              • The market
                • Figure 1: Forecast of Canada retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by value, 2009-19
                • Figure 2: Forecast of Canada retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by volume, 2009-19
              • Increasing number of overweight or obese Canadians may necessitate adjustments for chocolate confectionery
                • Figure 3: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2009-13
              • Canada’s aging Millennial and Boomer cohorts to impact chocolate growth in the coming years
                • Figure 4: Projected trends in the age structure of the Canadian population, 2014-19
              • Canada’s aging Millennial and Boomer cohorts to impact chocolate growth in the coming years
                • The consumer
                  • Nearly all Canadians eat chocolate
                    • Figure 5: Types of chocolate consumed, December 2014
                  • Consumers consider price, brand and flavour when making decisions
                    • Figure 6: Reasons for choosing one chocolate over another, December 2014
                  • The majority of Canadians enjoy snacking on chocolate
                    • Figure 7: Occasions when chocolate is typically eaten, December 2014
                  • Consumers purchase chocolate at a diverse set of locations
                    • Figure 8: Locations where chocolate is purchased, December 2014
                  • Opportunity to leverage functional benefits
                    • Figure 9: Summary of attitudes towards chocolate, December 2014
                  • What we think
                  • Issues and Insights

                      • Canada’s aging population presents challenges for chocolate
                        • The facts
                          • The implications
                            • Women have different expectations of chocolate
                              • The facts
                                • The implications
                                  • Chinese Canadians are a benefit for chocolate confectionery
                                    • The facts
                                      • The implications
                                        • Focus on families should continue
                                          • The facts
                                            • The implications
                                            • Trend Application

                                                • Trend: Transumers
                                                  • Trend: Moral Brand
                                                    • Trend: Immaterial World
                                                    • Market Drivers

                                                      • Key points
                                                        • Demographic overview
                                                          • Canadian population expected to grow
                                                            • Figure 10: Share of population of Canada, by territory/province, 2014
                                                          • Canada’s population is aging and will continue to do so in the coming years
                                                            • Figure 11: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
                                                            • Figure 12: Projected trends in the age structure of the Canadian population, 2014-19
                                                          • Over half of Canadians are overweight or obese
                                                            • Figure 13: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2009-13
                                                          • Economic overview
                                                            • Consumers’ economy to pick up, but risks remain
                                                              • Figure 14: Household disposable income and savings rate in Canada, Q1 2008-Q1 2014
                                                            • Consumer confidence may waver with falling oil prices
                                                              • Key economic indicators suggest slight increases in food costs in the future, holding true for food sold from both stores and restaurants
                                                                • Figure 15: Monthly movements in selected major components of the Canadian Consumer Price Index, seasonally adjusted, January 2010-July 2014
                                                              • Canada’s employment rates remain steady
                                                                • Figure 16: Canada’s unemployment rate, by gender, January 2008-January 2014
                                                            • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                              • Strengths
                                                                • Weaknesses
                                                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Chocolate confectionery sales to show modest growth
                                                                      • Figure 17: Canada value sales of chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 2009-19
                                                                      • Figure 18: Canada volume sales of chocolate confectionery, 2009-19
                                                                      • Figure 19: Forecast of Canada retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by value, 2009-19
                                                                      • Figure 20: Forecast of Canada retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by volume, 2009-19
                                                                    • Forecast methodology
                                                                    • Segment Performance and Market Share

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • Chocolate bars and tablets account for most of chocolate
                                                                          • Figure 21: Retail market section, by volume (000 tonnes), 2010-14
                                                                          • Figure 22: Retail market segmentation, by value (m cad), 2010-14
                                                                        • Smaller companies capturing volume and dollar share
                                                                          • Figure 23: Company retail market share, by volume (000 tonnes), 2013 and 2014
                                                                          • Figure 24: Company retail market share, by value (m cad), 2013 and 2014
                                                                      • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • More overall launches in chocolate confectionery category
                                                                            • Figure 25: Share of chocolate confectionery launches, by type, 2010-14
                                                                            • Figure 26: Share of chocolate confectionery launches, by claim type, 2010-14
                                                                          • Leveraging holidays
                                                                            • Co-branding opportunities with popular entertainment properties
                                                                              • Capitalizing on cross-category brand recognition
                                                                                • Exciting and ‘loud!’ innovation
                                                                                • Companies and Products

                                                                                    • Nestlé
                                                                                      • Overview and product range
                                                                                        • Recent activity and innovation
                                                                                          • The Hershey Company
                                                                                            • Overview and product range
                                                                                              • Recent activity and innovation
                                                                                                • Mondelēz International
                                                                                                  • Overview and product range
                                                                                                    • Recent activity and innovation
                                                                                                      • Mars, Incorporated
                                                                                                        • Overview and product range
                                                                                                          • Recent activity and innovation
                                                                                                          • Social Media – Chocolate Confectionery

                                                                                                            • Key findings
                                                                                                              • Market overview
                                                                                                                • Key social media metrics
                                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Key social media metrics, April 2015
                                                                                                                • Brand usage and awareness
                                                                                                                  • Figure 28: Brand usage and awareness for selected chocolate confectionery brands, December 2014
                                                                                                                • Interactions with chocolate confectionery brands
                                                                                                                  • Figure 29: Interactions with selected chocolate confectionery brands, December 2014
                                                                                                                • Social media activity and campaigns
                                                                                                                  • What we think
                                                                                                                    • Online conversations
                                                                                                                      • Figure 30: Online conversations for selected chocolate confectionery brands, by day, 9 April 2014-9 April 2015
                                                                                                                    • Where are people talking about chocolate confectionery?
                                                                                                                      • Figure 31: Online conversations for selected chocolate confectionery brands, by page type, 9 April 2014-9 April 2015
                                                                                                                    • What are people talking about?
                                                                                                                        • Figure 32: Topics of conversation around selected chocolate confectionery brands, 9 April 2014-9 April 2015
                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Consumption of Chocolate

                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                        • Nearly all Canadians eat chocolate
                                                                                                                          • Figure 33: Types of chocolate consumed, December 2014
                                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Frequency of types of chocolate consumed, December 2014
                                                                                                                        • Younger Canadians are somewhat more likely to be ‘chocoholics’
                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Chocolate bar consumption, by age, December 2014
                                                                                                                          • Figure 36: Types of chocolate consumed, by format, overall population versus 35-44-year-olds, December 2014
                                                                                                                        • Opportunity to grow frequency in chocolate
                                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Monthly consumption of chocolate, by type, December 2014
                                                                                                                        • Closing the frequency gap between women and men
                                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Chocolate bars consumed, by frequency, 18-34s, by gender, December 2014
                                                                                                                        • Different formats appeal to different consumers
                                                                                                                          • Consumers eat multiple types of chocolate
                                                                                                                            • Figure 39: Repertoire analysis of different types of chocolate, December 2014
                                                                                                                        • The Consumer – Reasons for Choosing Chocolate

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Consumers consider price, brand and flavour when making decisions
                                                                                                                              • Figure 40: Reasons for choosing one chocolate over another, December 2014
                                                                                                                            • Demands for chocolate change with age
                                                                                                                              • Figure 41: Select reasons for choosing one chocolate over another, by age, December 2014
                                                                                                                            • Boomers and seniors want ‘the real thing’
                                                                                                                              • Figure 42: Health-related reasons for choosing one chocolate over another, by age, December 2014
                                                                                                                            • Chocolate holds more visceral appeal for women
                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Occasions When Chocolate is Eaten

                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                • The majority of Canadians enjoy snacking on chocolate
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 43: Occasions when chocolate is typically eaten, December 2014
                                                                                                                                • Relationship with the category differs across genders
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Occasions when chocolate is typically eaten, by gender, December 2014
                                                                                                                                • Different occasions are more important to older and younger chocolate consumers
                                                                                                                                  • Quebec consumers are less likely to snack on chocolate
                                                                                                                                    • Consumers’ demands vary by occasion
                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Locations Where Chocolate is Purchased

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Consumers purchase chocolate at a diverse set of locations
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 45: Locations where chocolate is purchased, December 2014
                                                                                                                                        • Women responsible for most chocolate purchases across retail segments
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 46: Locations where chocolate is purchased, by gender, December 2014
                                                                                                                                        • Age impacts where chocolate is purchased
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 47: Select locations where chocolate is purchased – 18-24-year-olds versus overall population, December 2014
                                                                                                                                        • Region impacts where consumers purchase chocolates
                                                                                                                                        • The Consumer – Attitudes towards Chocolate

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • Opportunity to leverage functional benefits
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 48: Summary of attitudes towards chocolate, December 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Opportunity to leverage functional benefits
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 49: Health-related attitudes towards chocolate, December 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Canadians place limits on innovating chocolate flavours
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Flavour-related attitudes towards chocolate, December 2014
                                                                                                                                            • Price is superseded by other considerations
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: Price-related attitudes towards chocolate, December 2014
                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Chocolate Confectionery and Chinese Canadians

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Chinese Canadians eat more chocolate
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 52: Types of chocolate consumed, Chinese Canadians versus overall population, December 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Brand supersedes price for Chinese Canadians
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 53: Choice factors for chocolate confectionery, Chinese Canadians versus overall population, December 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Snacking more important for Chinese Canadians when eating chocolate
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 54: Occasions for chocolate confectionery, Chinese Canadians versus overall population, December 2014
                                                                                                                                              • Chinese Canadians are more open to new varieties of chocolate
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Summary of attitudes towards chocolate, Chinese Canadians versus overall population, December 2014
                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Four target groups
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 56: Target groups for chocolate confectionery, December 2014
                                                                                                                                                • Chocolate Enthusiasts (31%)
                                                                                                                                                  • Value Seekers (24%)
                                                                                                                                                    • Disengaged (24%)
                                                                                                                                                      • Impulsive Experimenters (21%)

                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

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                                                                                                                                                      Chocolate Confectionery - Canada - April 2015

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