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Chocolate Confectionery - Ireland - October 2016

“Concerns over sugar are putting pressure on sales as Irish consumers limit their consumption of chocolate and buy healthier snacks compared to a year ago, indicating that consumers are switching to healthier alternatives. Placing a greater emphasis on smaller-portion formats can help brands position chocolate as a treat that can be enjoyed in moderation and as part of a balanced diet.”
– James Wilson, Research Analyst

This report examines the following areas:

  • What types of chocolate do Irish consumers buy?
  • Sugar concerns pose risk to chocolate sales
  • Why are Irish consumers buying chocolate?

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Issues covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Figure 1: Estimated value and volume of the chocolate confectionery market, IoI, NI and RoI, 2011-16
          • Forecast
            • Figure 2: Estimated value and volume of chocolate confectionery retail sales, by value, NI and RoI, 2011-21
          • Market factors
            • Global cocoa prices remain high while milk prices fall
              • Chocolate retail prices continue falling
                • Irish waistlines set to expand
                  • NI and RoI governments targeting reduction in obesity levels
                    • Companies, brands and innovations
                      • The consumer
                        • Irish consumers eating chocolate two to three times a week
                          • Figure 3: How often consumers have eaten chocolate confectionery in the last three months, NI and RoI, August 2016
                        • Share bags and block chocolate popular
                          • Figure 4: Types of chocolate eaten in the last three months, NI and RoI, August 2016
                        • Chocolate seen as a permissible treat
                          • Figure 5: Reasons that consumers bought chocolate confectionery (including blocks, bars, wrapped, unwrapped and boxed) in the last 3 months, NI and RoI, August 2016
                        • Promotions encourage consumers to eat more chocolate
                          • Figure 6: Agreement with statements relating to chocolate confectionery, NI and RoI, August 2016
                        • What we think
                        • Issues and Insights

                          • What types of chocolate do Irish consumers buy?
                            • The facts
                              • The implications
                                • Sugar concerns pose risk to chocolate sales
                                  • The facts
                                    • The implications
                                      • Why are Irish consumers buying chocolate?
                                        • The facts
                                          • The implications
                                          • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                            • Irish chocolate market to grow in value and volume terms
                                              • Chocolate confectionery prices fall in 2016
                                                • Obesity a key issue in Ireland
                                                  • Chocolate a popular snack among Irish consumers
                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                      • Growth forecast for chocolate confectionery market in 2016
                                                        • Figure 7: Estimated value of chocolate confectionery retail sales, by value, IoI, NI and RoI, 2011-21
                                                      • Chocolate sales to continue growing though to 2021
                                                        • Figure 8: Indexed estimated value of chocolate confectionery retail sales, by value, NI and RoI, 2011-21
                                                      • 2016 to see growth in chocolate volume sales
                                                        • Figure 9: Estimated volume of the chocolate confectionery market, IoI, NI and RoI, 2011-21
                                                    • Market Drivers

                                                      • Raw materials see significant price increases
                                                        • Figure 10: Average yearly global cocoa prices, euros per tonne, 2012-16
                                                      • Milk prices falling across Ireland
                                                        • Figure 11: Average yearly milk prices, pence per litre, NI, 2011-16
                                                        • Figure 12: Average yearly milk prices, cents per litre, RoI, 2011-15
                                                      • Irish consumers willing to pay more for milk
                                                        • Figure 13: How much extra consumers are willing to pay for a two-litrecontainer of milk, NI and RoI, July 2016
                                                      • Retail chocolate prices decline significantly in NI
                                                        • Figure 14: Food price inflation vs chocolate prices, UK (including NI), 2012-16*
                                                        • Figure 15: Food price inflation vs chocolate prices, RoI, 2012-16
                                                      • Obesity remains a major issue for Ireland
                                                        • Figure 16: Percentage of RoI population estimated to be obese or overweight, by gender, 2010 and 2030
                                                        • Figure 17: Percentage of the UK (including NI) population estimated to be obese or overweight, by gender, 2010 and 2030
                                                      • RoI launch new health strategy to tackle obesity
                                                        • Healthy snacks are popular but consumers also looking for indulgence
                                                          • Figure 18: Top five types of snack foods that consumers use as a snack in typical week, NI and RoI, November 2015
                                                          • Figure 19: Volume of chocolate consumed per capita globally, top 10 countries, 2015
                                                      • Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know

                                                        • Chocolate confectionery experiences growth in NPD
                                                          • Sustainability claims enter mainstream in chocolate confectionery
                                                            • NPD in dark chocolate surges
                                                              • Hazelnut is a flavour trend to watch out for
                                                              • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                • Chocolate confectionery experiences strong growth in NPD between 2012 and 2015
                                                                  • Figure 20: New products launched in chocolate confectionery market, UK and Ireland, 2012-16
                                                                • Chocolate tablets driving NPD
                                                                  • Figure 21: New product launches in chocolate confectionery market, by sub-category, UK and Ireland, 2011-16
                                                                • Sustainability claims enter mainstream in chocolate confectionery
                                                                  • Figure 22: New product launches in chocolate confectionery market, by claim, UK and Ireland, 2011-16
                                                                • Hazelnut is a growing flavour trend in chocolate confectionery
                                                                  • Figure 23: Fastest-growing flavours in chocolate confectionery category, UK and Ireland, 2012-16
                                                                • NPD in dark chocolate surges
                                                                  • Asia influences innovation in chocolate confectionery
                                                                  • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                    • Chocolate eaten two to three times a week
                                                                      • Chocolate purchased as a treat
                                                                        • Larger chocolate formats appeal to Irish consumers
                                                                          • Multipack and share bag promotions encourage consumers to eat more
                                                                          • The Consumer – Frequency of Eating Chocolate Confectionery

                                                                              • Consumers eating chocolate two to three times a week
                                                                                • Figure 24: How often consumers have eaten chocolate confectionery in the last three months, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                              • Late Millennials and early Gen-Xers eating chocolate daily
                                                                                • Figure 25: Consumers who have eaten chocolate confectionery once a day or more in the last three months, by age, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                              • Gender impacts frequency of chocolate consumption
                                                                                • Figure 26: Consumers who have eaten chocolate confectionery two to three times a week in the last three months, by gender, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                                • Figure 27: Consumers who have eaten chocolate confectionery once a day or more in the last three months, by gender, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                            • The Consumer – Types of Chocolate Confectionery Eaten

                                                                                • Single bars and blocks the most popular types of chocolate
                                                                                  • Figure 28: Types of chocolate eaten in the last three months, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                                • Single chocolate bars appeal to Irish students
                                                                                  • Figure 29: Consumers who have eaten single chocolate bars (eg KitKat, Mars, Snickers) in the last three months, by work status, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                                  • Figure 30: Consumers who have eaten multipack chocolate bars (eg four-pack of Dairy Milk) in the last three months, by work status, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                                • Share bags and block chocolate popular among Irish singletons
                                                                                  • Figure 31: Consumers who have eaten share bags (eg 100g or more) of unwrapped chocolate pieces (eg Wispa Bites, Twirl Bites) in the last three months, by marital status, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                                  • Figure 32: Consumers who have eaten blocks of chocolate (eg Dairy Milk, Galaxy) in the last three months, by marital status, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                                • Children an influence on single-serve bags of chocolate
                                                                                  • Figure 33: Consumers who have eaten single-serving bags (eg 40g) of unwrapped chocolate pieces (eg Maltesers, Galaxy Minstrels) in the last three months, by presence of children in the household, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                              • The Consumer – Reasons for Buying Chocolate Confectionery

                                                                                  • Strong usage of chocolate as a treat
                                                                                    • Figure 34: Reasons that consumers bought chocolate confectionery (including blocks, bars, wrapped, unwrapped and boxed) in the last 3 months, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                                  • Irish women treating themselves with chocolate
                                                                                    • Figure 35: Consumers buying chocolate as a treat in the last three months, by gen der and age, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                                  • Rural consumers buying chocolate for in-home consumption
                                                                                    • Figure 36: Consumers buying chocolate for an evening at home (eg watching a movie) in the last three months, by location, NI, August 2016
                                                                                    • Figure 37: Consumers buying chocolate for an evening at home (eg watching a movie) in the last three months, by location, RoI, August 2016
                                                                                  • Parents buy chocolate to share
                                                                                    • Figure 38: Consumers buying chocolate to share with others (eg family, friends, colleagues) in the last three months, by presence of children in the household, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                                • The Consumer – Attitudes towards Chocolate Confectionery

                                                                                    • Multipack promotions driving chocolate consumption
                                                                                      • Figure 39: Agreement with statements relating to chocolate confectionery, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                                    • Multipack promotions encouraging students to eat more chocolate
                                                                                      • Figure 40: Agreement with the statement ‘Promotions on multipack/share bag chocolate encourage me to eat more’, by work status, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                                    • NI parents limiting chocolate purchases because of sugar
                                                                                      • Figure 41: Agreement with the statement ‘Concerns over sugar have made me limit the amount of chocolate I buy compared to a year ago’, by presence of children in the household, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                                    • Discounter chocolate appeals to less affluent
                                                                                      • Figure 42: Agreement with the statement ‘I’m buying more chocolate from discounters compared to a year ago (eg Aldi, Lidl, Poundland)’, by social class, NI and RoI, August 2016
                                                                                      • Figure 43: Agreement with the statement ‘I’m buying more chocolate from discounters compared to a year ago (eg Aldi, Lidl, Poundland)’, by gross annual household income, NI, August 2016
                                                                                      • Figure 44: Agreement with the statement ‘I’m buying more chocolate from discounters compared to a year ago (eg Aldi, Lidl, Poundland)’, by gross annual household income, RoI, August 2016
                                                                                  • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                    • Data sources
                                                                                      • Generational cohort definitions
                                                                                        • Abbreviations
                                                                                        • Appendix – The Consumer

                                                                                          • NI Toluna data
                                                                                            • Figure 45: How often consumers have eaten chocolate in the last three months, by demographics, NI, August 2016
                                                                                            • Figure 46: Types of chocolate consumers have eaten in the last three months, by demographics, NI, August 2016
                                                                                            • Figure 47: Types of chocolate consumers have eaten in the last three months, by demographics, NI, August 2016 (continued)
                                                                                            • Figure 48: Types of chocolate consumers have eaten in the last three months, by demographics, NI, August 2016 (continued)
                                                                                            • Figure 49: Reasons why consumers have bought chocolate confectionery in the last three months, by demographics, NI, August 2016
                                                                                            • Figure 50: Reasons why consumers have bought chocolate confectionery in the last three months, by demographics, NI, August 2016 (continued)
                                                                                            • Figure 51: Reasons why consumers have bought chocolate confectionery in the last three months, by demographics, NI, August 2016 (continued)
                                                                                            • Figure 52: Agreement with statements relating to chocolate confectionery, by demographics, NI, August 2016
                                                                                            • Figure 53: Agreement with statements relating to chocolate confectionery, by demographics, NI, August 2016 (continued)
                                                                                            • Figure 54: Agreement with statements relating to chocolate confectionery, by demographics, NI, August 2016 (continued)
                                                                                          • RoI Toluna data
                                                                                            • Figure 55: How often consumers have eaten chocolate in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, August 2016
                                                                                            • Figure 56: Types of chocolate consumers have eaten in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, August 2016
                                                                                            • Figure 57: Types of chocolate consumers have eaten in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, August 2016 (continued)
                                                                                            • Figure 58: Types of chocolate consumers have eaten in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, August 2016 (continued)
                                                                                            • Figure 59: Reasons why consumers have bought chocolate confectionery in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, August 2016
                                                                                            • Figure 60: Reasons why consumers have bought chocolate confectionery in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, August 2016 (continued)
                                                                                            • Figure 61: Reasons why consumers have bought chocolate confectionery in the last three months, by demographics, RoI, August 2016 (continued)
                                                                                            • Figure 62: Agreement with statements relating to chocolate confectionery, by demographics, RoI, August 2016
                                                                                            • Figure 63: Agreement with statements relating to chocolate confectionery, by demographics, RoI, August 2016 (continued)
                                                                                            • Figure 64: Agreement with statements relating to chocolate confectionery, by demographics, RoI, August 2016 (continued)

                                                                                        Chocolate Confectionery - Ireland - October 2016

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