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Chocolate Confectionery - UK - April 2012

“Better quality of chocolate, added ingredients (such as fruit and nuts) and ethical sourcing are all potential means for brands to justify higher prices while greater transparency around the reasons for increases in price would also be likely to be warmly received by users.”

– Chris Wisson, Senior Food Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How can the market improve its value for money credentials?
  • Does the concept of ‘healthier’ chocolate hold widespread appeal?
  • How can the market reduce its dependence on ‘the big three’ operators?
  • How can the market keep the sharing bags occasion fresh?
  • Can operators leverage the sourcing of cocoa more effectively?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Abbreviations
        • Executive Summary

            • The market
              • Figure 1: UK Retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment, 2011
            • Forecast
              • Figure 2: Forecast of UK retail value sales of chocolate confectionery, 2006-16
            • Market factors
              • Chocolate remains a core part of the snacking experience despite worries over price
                • Low consumer confidence does not significantly impact upon the market
                  • Seasonal occasions of high importance
                    • Rising obesity levels see some manufacturers polish their health credentials
                      • Population changes present both opportunities and threats to the market
                        • Falling cocoa prices in 2011 eases the pressure on manufacturers
                          • Figure 3: Monthly averages of daily cocoa prices in US dollars per tonne, January 2009-12
                        • Companies, brands and innovation
                          • The ‘big three’ manufacturers account for three quarters of sales in the market
                            • Figure 4: Manufacturers’ shares in the UK chocolate confectionery market, by value, 2011
                          • Own-label NPD increases competition
                            • Adpsend falls back a little in 2011
                              • The consumer
                                  • Figure 5: Consumption of chocolate confectionery within the last year, by type, January 2012
                                  • Figure 6: Occasions for eating chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                • Consumers like to stick to the tried and trusted
                                  • Figure 7: Choice factors when buying chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                • Sharing and impulse buying remain key considerations in the market
                                  • Figure 8: Users’ attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                • What we think
                                • Issues in the Market

                                    • How can the market improve its value for money credentials?
                                      • Does the concept of ‘healthier’ chocolate hold widespread appeal?
                                        • How can the market reduce its dependence on ‘the big three’ operators?
                                          • How can the market keep the sharing bags occasion fresh?
                                            • Figure 9: Selected examples of chocolate confectionery from the US chocolate confectionery market
                                          • Can operators leverage the sourcing of cocoa more effectively?
                                          • Future Opportunities

                                              • Minimize Me
                                                • Sense of the Intense
                                                • Internal Market Environment

                                                  • Key points
                                                    • Evidence of fewer Brits snacking but chocolate remains popular
                                                      • Rising awareness of the need to eat healthily is not acted upon
                                                        • Figure 10: Agreement with selected health-related statements, 2007-11
                                                        • Figure 11: Body Mass Index, 2007-11
                                                      • The children’s market remains hampered by restrictions
                                                        • Desire for special offers erodes brand loyalty
                                                          • Figure 12: Agreement with selected price and loyalty-related statements, 2007-11
                                                        • Over half of adults interested in trying new products
                                                          • Figure 13: Agreement with selected behavioural statements, 2007-11
                                                        • Fair trade products of interest to a third of adults
                                                        • Broader Market Environment

                                                          • Key points
                                                            • Consumer confidence remains brittle
                                                              • Figure 14: Consumer confidence index, monthly, January 2007-March 2012
                                                            • Cocoa prices fall away in the second half of 2011
                                                                • Figure 15: Monthly averages of daily cocoa prices in US dollars per tonne, January 2009-12
                                                              • Changing demographics in the UK creates opportunities and threats
                                                                • Figure 16: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-16
                                                              • Opportunities
                                                                • Threats
                                                                  • Growth in the AB and C2 groups provide cause for optimism
                                                                    • Figure 17: Changes in the adult socio-economic structure of the UK population, 2011-16
                                                                • Competitive Context

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Chocolate confectionery thrives in the post-recession landscape
                                                                      • Figure 18: Performance of selected markets competing with chocolate confectionery, 2006-11
                                                                      • Figure 19: Eating habit trends by demographics, January 2009-December 2011
                                                                    • Chocolate benefits from impulse, convenience and sharing positioning
                                                                    • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                      • Strengths
                                                                        • Weaknesses
                                                                        • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Chocolate confectionery NPD rises notably over 2010-11
                                                                              • Figure 20: Product launches within the UK chocolate, sugar and gum confectionery markets, 2007-11
                                                                            • Private labels using NPD to try to get a foothold in the market
                                                                              • Figure 21: Product launches within the UK chocolate confectionery market, private label vs brands, 2007-11
                                                                            • Asda leaps to the front of the line for NPD
                                                                              • Figure 22: Product launches within the UK chocolate confectionery market, by leading companies, 2011
                                                                            • Seasonal NPD grows in popularity
                                                                              • Chocolate confectionery strongly associated with Easter
                                                                                  • Figure 23: Selected examples of NPD for the 2012 Easter season
                                                                                • Tablet and mixed assortment NPD falls from favour
                                                                                  • Figure 24: Product launches within the UK chocolate confectionery market, by type, 2007-11
                                                                                • Chocolate balls on a roll
                                                                                  • Chocolate Confectionery NPD makes fewer claims in 2011
                                                                                    • Figure 25: Product launches within the UK chocolate confectionery market, by leading claims, 2007-11
                                                                                  • Tried and tested flavours dominate NPD
                                                                                    • Figure 26: Product launches within the UK chocolate confectionery market, by flavour, 2007-11
                                                                                  • Origin becoming an important characteristic in its own right
                                                                                    • Premium brands tap into online purchasing
                                                                                      • Other selected notable launches in 2011/12
                                                                                        • Figure 27: Selected launches in the chocolate confectionery market, 2011/12
                                                                                    • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • The chocolate confectionery market continues to achieve steady growth
                                                                                          • Figure 28: UK retail value sales of private-label food and drink, at current and constant prices, 2006-16
                                                                                        • Forecast
                                                                                          • Figure 29: Forecast of UK retail value sales of chocolate confectionery, 2006-16
                                                                                        • Forecast methodology
                                                                                        • Segment Performance

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Countlines remain dominant despite mixed branded performances
                                                                                              • Figure 30: UK Retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment, 2009-11
                                                                                              • Figure 31: UK Retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment, 2011
                                                                                            • Mixed fortunes for tablets
                                                                                              • Non-individually wrapped confectionery on the rise
                                                                                              • Market Share

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Kraft, Mars and Nestlé hold three quarters of the market share
                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Manufacturers’ shares in the UK chocolate market, by value, 2009-11
                                                                                                  • Kraft retains its leading position in the market
                                                                                                    • Figure 33: Manufacturers’ shares in the UK chocolate confectionery market, by value, 2011
                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Leading brands’ shares in the Chocolate Confectionery market, by value, 2009-11
                                                                                                  • Mars sees sales grow despite two of its main brands struggling in 2011
                                                                                                    • Nestlé retains a notable share in the market
                                                                                                      • Lindt & Sprüngli achieves growth from special occasions
                                                                                                        • Own-label chocolate also makes some in-roads
                                                                                                        • Companies and Products

                                                                                                          • Mars
                                                                                                            • Kraft Foods UK
                                                                                                              • Nestlé
                                                                                                                • Ferrero
                                                                                                                  • Thorntons
                                                                                                                    • Lindt & Sprüngli
                                                                                                                    • Brand Research

                                                                                                                      • Brand map
                                                                                                                          • Figure 35: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the chocolate confectionery sector, January 2012
                                                                                                                        • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                          • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                                            • Figure 36: Attitudes by chocolate confectionary brand, January 2012
                                                                                                                          • Brand personality
                                                                                                                            • Figure 37: Chocolate confectionary brand personality – macro image, January 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 38: Chocolate confectionary brand personality – micro image, January 2012
                                                                                                                          • Brand experience
                                                                                                                            • Figure 39: Chocolate confectionary brand usage, January 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Satisfaction with various chocolate confectionary brands, January 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Consideration of chocolate confectionary brands, January 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Consumer perceptions of current chocolate confectionary brand performance, January 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Chocolate confectionary brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, January 2012
                                                                                                                          • Brand index
                                                                                                                            • Figure 44: Chocolate confectionary brand index, January 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 45: Chocolate confectionary brand index vs. recommendation, January 2012
                                                                                                                          • Target group analysis
                                                                                                                            • Figure 46: Target groups, January 2012
                                                                                                                            • Figure 47: Chocolate confectionary brand usage, by target groups, January 2012
                                                                                                                          • Group One – Conformists
                                                                                                                            • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                                              • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                                                • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                                                  • Group Five – Individualists
                                                                                                                                  • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                      • Adspend drops back to ‘typical’ levels after 2010 peak
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Main monitored media advertising spend on chocolate confectionery, 2008-11
                                                                                                                                      • Mars dominates advertising spend in the chocolate confectionery market
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 49: Main monitored media advertising spend on chocolate confectionery, by advertiser 2008-11
                                                                                                                                      • Maltesers becomes the highest brand for advertising spend
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Main monitored media advertising spend on chocolate confectionery, by brand, 2008-11
                                                                                                                                      • TV advertising accounts for over three quarters of advertising
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 51: Main monitored media advertising spend on chocolate confectionery, by media type 2008-11
                                                                                                                                    • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Grocery multiples tighten their grip on the market
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: UK retail value sales of chocolate confectionery, by outlet type, 2009-11
                                                                                                                                        • CTNs under pressure to compete
                                                                                                                                          • Supermarket petrol wars a threat to garages
                                                                                                                                          • Consumer – Trends in Usage

                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                              • Chocolate eaten by the significant majority of adults
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 53: Usage of chocolate bars and other chocolate items, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                              • Four in five users of chocolate confectionery do so weekly
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 54: Frequency of eating chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Milk chocolate strengthens its dominance in the market
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Types of chocolate bars and other chocolate items used most often, 2008-11
                                                                                                                                              • Bars and tablets the most popular types of chocolate
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 56: Consumption of chocolate confectionery within the last year, by type, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                • Despite a fall in user numbers, chocolate assortments remain popular…
                                                                                                                                                  • … with bags and pouches also used by over half of adults
                                                                                                                                                    • Women drive the gifting market
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: Novelty or boxed chocolates purchasing occasions in the last 12 months, April 2010
                                                                                                                                                      • Cooking chocolate may represent a potential avenue for growth
                                                                                                                                                        • Two in five adults eat five or more types of chocolate
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 58: Repertoire of types of chocolate confectionery eaten within the last year, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                      • Consumer – Usage by Occasion

                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                          • Mid-afternoon and evening snacking the most popular occasions for eating chocolate
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 59: Chocolate snacking throughout the day, 2009-11
                                                                                                                                                          • Chocolate continues to benefit from a strong image as being a treat
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 60: Occasions for eating chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Chocolate confectionery benefits from the trend for staying at home
                                                                                                                                                              • Three in ten eat chocolate to get an energy boost
                                                                                                                                                                • On-the-go use currently underperforming
                                                                                                                                                                • Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                    • Tried and trusted chocolate dominates user’s decision-making process
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Choice factors when buying chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Price a core consideration for only half of users
                                                                                                                                                                      • Interest in added ingredients and dark chocolate increases with age
                                                                                                                                                                        • Ethical sourcing and premium ingredients remain minority interests
                                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Chocolate Confectionery

                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                            • The majority of users end up sharing their chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 62: Users’ attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                            • Sharing and impulse purchasing remain majority behaviours
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 63: Users’ behaviour-related attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                            • Premium chocolate moving towards the mainstream
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 64: Users’ attitudes towards premium chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                            • Over half of users see dark chocolate as the healthiest type of chocolate
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Users’ health-related attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                            • Over half of chocolate users are interested in trying new formats
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Users’ newness-related attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                            • Rising prices remains a threat to the market
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 67: Users’ price-related attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                          • Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                              • Four target groups
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 68: Target groups for chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                              • Enthusiasts (23%)
                                                                                                                                                                                • Moderators (24%)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Price-conscious (28%)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Non-sharers (25%)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 69: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 70: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 71: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 72: Body Mass Index, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 73: Body Mass Index, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 74: Best and worst case forecasts for the UK chocolate confectionery market, by value, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Consumer – Trends in Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 75: Frequency of eating chocolate bars and other chocolate items, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 76: Frequency of eating chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 77: Frequency of eating chocolate confectionery by consumption of chocolate confectionery within the last year, by type, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 78: Consumption of chocolate confectionery within the last year, by type, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 79: Consumption of chocolate confectionery within the last year, by type, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 80: Consumption of chocolate confectionery within the last year, by type, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 81: Frequency of using chocolate assortments and other boxed chocolates, 2007-11
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 82: Frequency of using chocolate assortments and other boxed chocolates, by demographics, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 83: Repertoire of consumption of chocolate confectionery within the last year, by type, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 84: Brand usage, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 85: Brand commitment, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 86: Brand momentum, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 87: Brand diversity, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 88: Brand satisfaction, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 89: Brand recommendation, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 90: Brand attitude, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 91: Brand image – macro image, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 92: Brand image – micro image, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 93: Profile of target groups by demographic, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 94: Psychographic segmentation by target group, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 95: Brand usage by target group, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Brand index
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 96: Brand index, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Consumer – Usage by Occasion

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 97: Chocolate snacking throughout the day, 2009-11
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 98: Occasions for eating chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 99: Occasions for eating chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 100: Occasions for eating chocolate confectionery, January 2012 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 101: Choice factors when buying chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 102: Choice factors when buying chocolate confectionery, by demographics, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 103: Choice factors when buying chocolate confectionery, by demographics, January 2012 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 104: Choice factors when buying chocolate confectionery, by type, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 105: Choice factors when buying chocolate confectionery, by type, January 2012 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Chocolate Confectionery

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 106: Users’ attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 107: Agreement with the statements ‘I usually end up sharing my chocolate’ and ‘Dark chocolate is healthier than milk or white’, by demographics, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 108: Agreement with the statements ‘I am interested in trying new formats of chocolate’ and ‘I mostly buy chocolate on impulse’, by demographics, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 109: Agreement with the statements ‘I am happy to give my child chocolate as an occasional treat’ and ‘I would cut back on chocolate as part of a healthy eating regime’, by demographics, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 110: Agreement with the statements ‘I would cut back on chocolate if the price of my favourite bars rise’ and ‘I would only buy premium chocolates when buying someone chocolate as a gift’, by demographics, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 111: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to try new types or flavours of chocolate (eg containing chilli)’ and ‘I would like to buy chocolate which used natural sweeteners instead of sugar’, by demographics, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 112: Agreement with the statements ‘Eating chocolate tends to make me feel guilty’ and ‘Chocolate bars are good value for money’, by demographics, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 113: Examples of sharing formats of chocolate confectionery from other countries
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 114: Target groups, by demographics, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 115: Consumption of types of chocolate within the last year, by target groups, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 116: Frequency of eating chocolate, by target groups, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 117: Occasions for eating chocolate, by target groups, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 118: Choice factors, by target groups, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 119: Users’ attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, by target groups, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 120: Grocery shopping habits, by target groups, January 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 121: Eating habits, by target groups, January 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Ferrero UK Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Green & Black's Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Kraft Foods Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Kraft Foods UK
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Lindt & Sprüngli (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Mars Incorporated
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Nestlé UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Thorntons Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Wm Morrison Supermarkets

                                                                                                                                                                                    Chocolate Confectionery - UK - April 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                    £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)