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Chocolate Confectionery - UK - April 2016

“Flat volume sales for the UK chocolate market show the continuing need for brands to use innovation to encourage trading up, both when buying chocolate as a treat for oneself and when gift purchasing. With the majority of people thinking it is OK to eat small amounts of chocolate every day as part of a balanced diet, an increased emphasis can be placed on eating smaller amounts of more premium or luxury products as a daily treat.”
– Richard Caines, Senior Food & Drink Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

  • Opportunities presented by different reasons for purchasing
  • Ways of encouraging trading up to compensate for stagnating volumes
  • Risk posed to sales by war on sugar and portion control

The resilience of the chocolate confectionery market demonstrates the strong position chocolate occupies as a permissible treat. Indeed, the majority of users think it is fine to enjoy chocolate every day as part of a balanced diet. The strong emotional ties consumers have with chocolate have also protected it against heightened concerns over sugar.

The majority of people are willing to trade up for chocolate with particular attributes, particularly when buying as a gift, and more purchases of premium products are needed given stagnating volume sales. The launch of innovative new products along with strong advertising and in-store marketing support will be instrumental to the success of brands given the impulse nature of purchasing.

This report examines the UK retail market for chocolate confectionery. The market size includes sales through all retail channels including direct to consumer. The market size comprises packaged chocolate confectionery products, including the following segments:

  • Chocolate confectionery: This comprises all solid chocolate or chocolate-covered confectionery, including block chocolate up to 400g in weight, chocolate straight lines, chocolate-filled bars and chocolate confectionery variety packs not targeted for special occasions or gifting.
  • Chocolate assortments: This includes assortments, large bags, large boxes, tins, jars. Products include chocolates, chocolate mints, liqueurs, toffee, fudge, marzipan, truffles, jellies and nut assortments but exclude seasonal products.

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this report
      • Executive Summary

          • Resilience of market shows strong appeal of chocolate
            • Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of chocolate, 2010-20
          • Concerns about sugar only having limited impact on chocolate
            • Ageing population unlikely to benefit chocolate sales
              • Big lead for Cadbury Dairy Milk in chocolate confectionery
                • Figure 2: Leading brands in the chocolate confectionery market, % share by value, 2014/15*
              • Dairy Milk stands outs as most trusted chocolate brand
                • Branded products dominate launch activity in chocolate
                  • Chocolate has enduring appeal as an affordable treat
                    • Increase in proportion of people eating blocks of chocolate
                      • Self-treating the biggest reason for buying chocolate
                        • Figure 3: Reasons for buying chocolate confectionery, February 2016
                      • Strong incentive for brands to tap into gifting market
                        • Figure 4: Factors that would encourage people to pay more for chocolate when buying it either for themselves or as a gift, February 2016
                      • Impulse buying a key feature of purchasing behaviour
                        • Figure 5: Shopping behaviour when buying chocolate, February 2016
                      • Eating chocolate daily seen as OK as part of a balanced diet
                        • Figure 6: Attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2016
                      • What we think
                      • Issues and Insights

                        • Opportunities presented by different reasons for purchasing
                          • Facts
                            • Implications
                              • Ways of encouraging trading up to compensate for stagnating volumes
                                • Facts
                                  • Implications
                                    • Risk posed to sales by war on sugar and portion control
                                      • Facts
                                        • Implications
                                        • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                          • Growth in value sales but flat volumes
                                            • NPD and marketing activity helps sales
                                              • Decline in growth for chocolate assortments
                                                • War on sugar having limited impact on chocolate so far
                                                  • Growth in number of over-55s who eat chocolate less frequently
                                                  • Market Size and Forecast

                                                    • Value growth for chocolate despite war on sugar
                                                      • Figure 7: Total UK retail volume and value sales of chocolate*, 2010-20
                                                    • Premium launches important for future growth
                                                      • Figure 8: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of chocolate*, 2010-20
                                                      • Figure 9: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of chocolate*, 2010-20
                                                  • Segment Performance

                                                    • Innovation helps boost chocolate confectionery sales
                                                      • Figure 10: Total UK retail volume and value sales of chocolate confectionery, 2010-20
                                                      • Figure 11: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of chocolate confectionery, 2010-20
                                                      • Figure 12: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of chocolate confectionery, 2010-20
                                                    • Slowed growth for chocolate assortments
                                                      • Figure 13: Total UK retail volume and value sales of chocolate assortments, 2010-20
                                                      • Figure 14: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of chocolate assortments, 2010-20
                                                      • Figure 15: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of chocolate assortments, 2010-20
                                                  • Market Drivers

                                                    • Media coverage and new initiatives focus on reducing sugar intake
                                                      • Low sugar seen as most important element of healthy food
                                                        • Figure 16: Factors deemed important when looking for healthy food, November 2015
                                                      • Chocolate one of a number of permissible treats
                                                        • Figure 17: Snacks eaten between meals, December 2015
                                                      • An ageing population unlikely to benefit chocolate sales
                                                        • Figure 18: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2010-20
                                                    • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                                      • Cadbury Dairy Milk leads in chocolate confectionery
                                                        • Leading companies drive big increase in 2015 advertising
                                                          • New launches receive strong advertising support
                                                            • Dairy Milk the most trusted chocolate brand
                                                              • Lindt Lindor has strong association with indulgence
                                                                • Branded products dominate NPD activity in chocolate
                                                                  • Cadbury Dairy Milk a big focus of new launches by Mondelēz
                                                                    • Galaxy focuses on new flavour combinations
                                                                      • Ethical claims important in chocolate confectionery
                                                                      • Market Share

                                                                        • Dairy Milk maintains strong lead in chocolate confectionery
                                                                          • Figure 19: Leading brands in the chocolate confectionery market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                        • Celebrations and Lindt see big increases in sales in assortments
                                                                          • Figure 20: Leading brands in the chocolate assortments market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                      • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                        • Big increase in chocolate advertising in 2015
                                                                          • Figure 21: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on chocolate confectionery, 2012-15
                                                                          • Figure 22: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on chocolate confectionery, by sub-category, 2012-15
                                                                        • Mars the biggest advertiser by some distance
                                                                          • Figure 23: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on chocolate confectionery, by advertiser (top 10), 2012-15
                                                                        • Galaxy the most heavily advertised brand
                                                                            • Figure 24: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on chocolate confectionery, by brand (top 15), 2012-15
                                                                          • Coverage/methodology clarification
                                                                          • Brand Research

                                                                              • What you need to know
                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                  • Figure 25: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, January 2016
                                                                                • Key brand metrics
                                                                                  • Figure 26: Key metrics for selected brands, January 2016
                                                                                • Brand attitudes: Cadbury Dairy Milk the most trusted brand
                                                                                  • Figure 27: Attitudes, by brand, January 2016
                                                                                • Brand personality: Hotel Chocolat has most exclusive image
                                                                                  • Figure 28: Brand personality – Macro image, January 2016
                                                                                • Lindor has strong association with indulgence
                                                                                  • Figure 29: Brand personality – Micro image, January 2016
                                                                                • Brand analysis
                                                                                  • Cadbury Dairy Milk building on its strong reputation
                                                                                    • Figure 30: User profile of Cadbury Dairy Milk, January 2016
                                                                                  • Galaxy seen as more indulgent than Dairy Milk
                                                                                    • Figure 31: User profile of Galaxy, January 2016
                                                                                  • KitKat stands out for offering accessible good value
                                                                                    • Figure 32: User profile of KitKat, January 2016
                                                                                  • Lindt’s Lindor stands out for indulgence
                                                                                    • Figure 33: User profile of Lindt Lindor, January 2016
                                                                                  • Thorntons among the more special brands
                                                                                    • Figure 34: User profile of Thorntons, January 2016
                                                                                  • Hotel Chocolat seen as the most innovative brand
                                                                                    • Figure 35: User profile of Hotel Chocolat, January 2016
                                                                                  • M&M’s seen as the most fun, vibrant and cool brand
                                                                                    • Figure 36: User profile of M&M’s, January 2016
                                                                                  • Kinder stands out as a family brand
                                                                                    • Figure 37: User profile of Kinder, January 2016
                                                                                • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                  • Branded products dominate launch activity
                                                                                    • Figure 38: New product launches in the UK chocolate confectionery, share by branded products vs. private label, January 2011-December 2015
                                                                                  • Seasonal chocolate accounts for a third of launches
                                                                                    • Figure 39: New product launches in the UK chocolate confectionery market, share by sub-category, January 2011-December 2015
                                                                                  • Mondelēz and Nestlé lead 2015 launch activity
                                                                                      • Figure 40: Examples of launches by Galaxy in the UK chocolate confectionery market, 2015
                                                                                      • Figure 41: New product launches in the UK chocolate confectionery market, share by company (top 10), January 2011-December 2015
                                                                                      • Figure 42: Examples of launches by Cadbury Dairy Milk in the UK chocolate confectionery market, 2016
                                                                                      • Figure 43: Examples of Easter confectionery launches in the UK chocolate confectionery market, 2016
                                                                                    • Ethical claims increase in prominence
                                                                                        • Figure 44: New product launches in the UK chocolate confectionery market, share by claim (top 20), January 2011-December 2015
                                                                                        • Figure 45: Examples of launches in the UK chocolate confectionery market making premium claims, 2016
                                                                                      • Fewer completely new products being launched
                                                                                        • Figure 46: New product launches in the UK chocolate confectionery market, share by launch type, January 2011-December 2015
                                                                                    • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                      • Enduring appeal of chocolate as an affordable treat
                                                                                        • Increase in proportion of people eating blocks of chocolate
                                                                                          • Six in 10 people buy chocolate to treat themselves
                                                                                            • Putting an emphasis on luxury and novelty for the gifts market
                                                                                              • Trading up in self-treating more about the chocolate itself
                                                                                                • High in-store visibility important for new products
                                                                                                  • Getting a good deal on price also important to chocolate buyers
                                                                                                    • Room for chocolate as part of a balanced diet
                                                                                                      • Consumer perception that dark chocolate healthier
                                                                                                      • Frequency of Eating Chocolate and Types Eaten

                                                                                                        • No change in frequency of eating chocolate
                                                                                                          • Figure 47: Frequency of eating chocolate in the last 3 months, February 2015 and February 2016
                                                                                                        • More people eating blocks of chocolate
                                                                                                          • Figure 48: Types of chocolate confectionery eaten in the last three months, February 2015 and 2016
                                                                                                      • Reasons for Buying Chocolate Confectionery

                                                                                                        • Self-treating the biggest reason for buying chocolate
                                                                                                          • Figure 49: Reasons for buying chocolate confectionery, February 2016
                                                                                                        • Evening snacking on chocolate confectionery at home
                                                                                                          • Sharing and special occasions important for chocolate
                                                                                                          • Factors Encouraging Buyers to Pay More for Chocolate

                                                                                                            • Being seen as a luxury brand important for gifts
                                                                                                              • Figure 50: Factors that would encourage people to pay more for chocolate when buying it either for themselves or as a gift, February 2016
                                                                                                            • Trading up in self-treating more about trying unusual flavours
                                                                                                              • Specialist chocolate stores more likely to command a price premium
                                                                                                                • Combining personalisation and limited edition products
                                                                                                                  • Novelty element also important in the gift market
                                                                                                                  • Shopping Behaviour When Buying Chocolate

                                                                                                                    • New flavours a big trigger for buying chocolate
                                                                                                                      • Figure 51: Shopping behaviour when buying chocolate, February 2016
                                                                                                                    • Social media has a strong influence
                                                                                                                      • Saving money an important element to buying chocolate
                                                                                                                        • Four in 10 people limiting their chocolate buying
                                                                                                                        • Attitudes towards Chocolate

                                                                                                                          • Chocolate a permissible everyday treat
                                                                                                                            • Figure 52: Attitudes towards chocolate confectionery, February 2016
                                                                                                                          • Re-sealable packaging can help with portion control
                                                                                                                            • Dark chocolate seen as healthier than milk chocolate
                                                                                                                              • Emotional benefits provide a strong defence against health concerns
                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                    • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – The Market

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of chocolate*, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of chocolate confectionery, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of chocolate assortments, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of chocolate*, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 57: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of chocolate confectionery, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of chocolate assortments, 2010-20
                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 59: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the UK chocolate confectionery market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 60: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the UK chocolate assortments market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: New product launches in the UK chocolate confectionery market, branded vs private label share by category, January-December 2015

                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                    To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                    Chocolate Confectionery - UK - April 2016

                                                                                                                                    £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)