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Christmas Shopping Habits - UK - February 2017

“It was a great Christmas, better than anyone expected. But the more one looks at the performance, the more one feels that there are warning signs. We think that people are worried about rising prices in 2017 and that they pulled spending forward for that reason. We think they are right to be worried and that real incomes are going to come under pressure as inflation rises. The prospects for Christmas 2017 are rather worse than for the Christmas just gone.”
–    Richard Perks, Director of Retail Research

This report will cover the following areas:

  • Pricing – time to restore trust
  • Why was Christmas so strong?
  • Prospects for 2017

 

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
    • Executive Summary

        • The market
          • Strong growth in the final quarter
            • Figure 1: Retail sales growth and inflation, 2011-16
          • Black Friday – Bigger, but disillusion setting in
            • Figure 2: Retail sales in December as a proportion of the full year, 2010-16
          • Consumer confidence and the economic outlook
            • Figure 3: Mintel: Consumer confidence tracker, January 2009-January 2017
          • Christmas trading performance
            • Sales in December
              • Figure 4: Main retail sectors: Year on year growth in December 2016
            • Non-store sales lead growth
              • Discounters, convenience and online lead growth in food
                • Morrisons the best performing of the big four
                  • Online pureplays lead in clothing
                    • M&S enjoys growth in clothing sales
                      • B&M Bargains leads growth for the mixed goods retailers
                        • Department stores boosted by e-commerce
                          • Dixons Carphone leverages stores to deliver strong results
                            • The consumer
                              • Black Friday bigger than last year
                                • Figure 5: Attitudes to buying gifts in the Black Friday/Cyber Monday promotions, Christmas 2016
                              • Gift buying and online
                                • Figure 6: How gifts were bought, Christmas 2016
                              • Almost every group spent more than last year
                                • Figure 7: Amounts spent on Christmas gifts, by broad spending band, Christmas 2016
                                • Figure 8: Spending relative to last Christmas, Christmas 2016
                              • Online bigger than in-store for gift buying
                                • Figure 9: Reasons for buying more gifts in-store, Christmas 2016
                                • Figure 10: Reasons for buying more gifts online, Christmas 2016
                              • Attitudes to gift buying
                                • Figure 11: Attitudes to buying Christmas gifts, Christmas 2016
                              • What we think
                              • Issues and Insights

                                • Pricing – time to restore trust
                                  • The facts
                                    • The implications
                                      • Why was Christmas so strong?
                                        • The facts
                                          • The implications
                                            • Prospects for 2017
                                              • The facts
                                                • The implications
                                                • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                  • Strong growth in the final quarter
                                                    • Black Friday
                                                      • Consumer confidence and the economic outlook
                                                      • Christmas 2016

                                                        • Retail sales up 7.1% in December
                                                          • Figure 12: Retail sales growth and inflation, 2011-16
                                                        • Why was Q4 so strong?
                                                          • Importance of December
                                                            • Figure 13: Retail sales in December as a proportion of the full year, 2010-16
                                                          • Black Friday – Past the peak?
                                                            • Undermining pricing credibility
                                                              • Signs that interest is waning
                                                                • Ignoring Black Friday with impunity
                                                                  • Different for electricals
                                                                    • How big was Black Friday in 2016?
                                                                      • Figure 14: November as proportion of all retail sales, 2010-16
                                                                    • The economy
                                                                      • Consumer confidence
                                                                        • Figure 15: Mintel: Consumer confidence tracker, January 2009-January 2017
                                                                      • Real incomes
                                                                        • Figure 16: Inflation and earnings growth, 2012-16
                                                                      • Inflation beginning to move up
                                                                        • Consumer credit – Worrying growth
                                                                          • Figure 17: UK consumer credit (excl mortgages), 2008-16
                                                                        • The housing market stable
                                                                          • Outlook for 2017 – Uncertainty rules
                                                                            • Online
                                                                              • Rapid growth
                                                                                • Figure 18: Online share of all retail sales, 2007-16
                                                                              • Store based vs pure player
                                                                                • Figure 19: Store based and pure player online retailers, share of all online sales, 2009-16
                                                                              • Growth by sector
                                                                                • Figure 20: Growth in online sales, by retail sector, 2016
                                                                              • Online sales by broad sector
                                                                                • Figure 21: Online sales, by type of retailer, 2016
                                                                              • Where next?
                                                                              • Christmas Trading Performance

                                                                                  • Sector data
                                                                                    • Figure 22: Sector sales, December 2016
                                                                                    • Figure 23: Major retail sectors, sales growth December and 4th quarter 2016
                                                                                  • Food retailers
                                                                                    • Benchmarks
                                                                                      • The companies
                                                                                          • Figure 24: Food retailers: Christmas performance, 2016
                                                                                        • Where next?
                                                                                          • Clothing and footwear retailers
                                                                                            • Benchmarks
                                                                                              • The companies
                                                                                                  • Figure 25: Clothing retailers: UK Christmas performance, 2016
                                                                                                • Where next?
                                                                                                  • Mixed goods retailers (including department stores)
                                                                                                    • Benchmarks
                                                                                                      • The companies
                                                                                                        • Figure 26: Department stores and other mixed goods retailers: UK Christmas performance, 2016
                                                                                                      • Where next?
                                                                                                        • Other sectors – Homewares, home shopping, miscellaneous
                                                                                                          • Benchmarks
                                                                                                            • Figure 27: Other stores: December and fourth quarter performance, 2016
                                                                                                          • The companies
                                                                                                            • Figure 28: Home and other miscellaneous retailers’ Christmas performance, 2016
                                                                                                          • What next?
                                                                                                          • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                            • Black Friday bigger than last year
                                                                                                              • Almost every group spent more than last year
                                                                                                                • Online and in-store used equally…
                                                                                                                  • …but more gifts now bought online
                                                                                                                    • Attitudes to gift buying
                                                                                                                    • Black Friday

                                                                                                                        • All Black Friday demand
                                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Buyers of goods during Black Friday promotions, November 2016
                                                                                                                        • Black Friday and electricals
                                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Electrical goods buyers over Black Friday, 2015 and 2016
                                                                                                                        • An online event
                                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Black Friday purchases, in-store and online, November 2016
                                                                                                                        • Attitudes towards buying on Black Friday
                                                                                                                            • Figure 32: Attitudes to Black Friday, December 2016
                                                                                                                          • Reasons for not buying
                                                                                                                            • Black Friday and Christmas gift buying
                                                                                                                              • Number of gift buyers
                                                                                                                                • Attitudes to Black Friday
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 33: Attitudes to buying gifts in the Black Friday/Cyber Monday promotions, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                • Who Bought Gifts and How They Were Bought

                                                                                                                                    • Online vs in-store – Numbers of customers
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 34: How gifts were bought, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 35: Profile of those who shop for gifts, by delivery, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                      • Online vs in-store by sales
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 36: Where most gifts were bought, in-store vs online, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                      • Device used
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 37: Devices used to buy online, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 38: Number of different devices used for online purchasing, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                    • Amount Spent on Christmas Gifts

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 39: Amounts spent on Christmas gifts, by broad spending band, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                    • Spending Relative to 2015

                                                                                                                                        • Figure 40: Spending relative to last Christmas, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 41: Spending relative to last year, by amount spent this year, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                    • Why Do People Buy More Gifts in Stores?

                                                                                                                                          • Figure 42: Reasons for buying more gifts in-store, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 43: Profile of those agreeing with the in-store shopper attitudes, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                      • Why Do People Buy More Gifts Online?

                                                                                                                                        • Convenience is key
                                                                                                                                          • Price - perception and reality
                                                                                                                                            • Delivery passes of growing importance
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Reasons for buying more gifts online, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 45: Profile of those agreeing with the online shopper attitudes, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                            • Attitudes to Buying Gifts

                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 46: Attitudes to buying Christmas gifts, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 47: Attitudes to buying Christmas gifts, difference between those who agree and those who disagree, Christmas 2016
                                                                                                                                                • Prices – Time to restore trust
                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                    • Financial definitions
                                                                                                                                                      • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                        • Consumer research methodology

                                                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                        To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                        Christmas Shopping Habits - UK - February 2017

                                                                                                                                                        US $2,478.79 (Excl.Tax)