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Cider - UK - January 2013

“Cider producers should be looking to build value into their products to justify a higher price, with purity, limited/special editions and single origins/batches the best ways of encouraging drinkers to trade up.”

– Chris Wisson, Senior Drinks Analyst


Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How can cider brands leverage product origin more effectively?
  • How can fruit-flavoured cider win over older users?
  • How much potential is there for boxed cider?
  • How can cider improve on areas of weakness in its image?

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definitions
        • Excluded
          • Abbreviations
          • Executive Summary

              • The market
                • Forecast
                  • Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2007-17
                • Market factors
                  • Rising duty adds pressure on cider producers…
                    • …although craft producers are growing in number
                      • Low consumer confidence is a threat to the market…
                        • …while there are also threats associated with population changes
                          • Weather also plays a strong role in determining cider’s performance
                            • Companies, brands and innovation
                              • Strongbow still leads the way
                                • Figure 2: Leading brands’ market shares in value sales of cider in the off-trade, 2012
                              • The consumer
                                • Apple cider under increasing pressure from pear
                                  • Figure 3: Usage of different types of cider within the past six months, November 2012
                                • Brand name is the most important factor for users when buying cider
                                  • High levels of enthusiasm for new innovation in the cider market
                                    • Figure 4: Users’ attitudes towards cider, November 2012
                                  • Cider fares well on a number of positive associations
                                    • What we think
                                    • Issues in the Market

                                        • How can cider brands leverage product origin more effectively?
                                          • How can fruit-flavoured cider win over older users?
                                            • How much potential is there for boxed cider?
                                              • How can cider improve on areas of weakness in its image?
                                              • Trend Application

                                                  • Premiumization & Indulgence
                                                    • Fauxthenticity
                                                      • 2015: East Meets West
                                                      • Internal Market Environment

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Duty rises driving up retail prices
                                                            • Figure 5: Value and volume sales of the total UK alcoholic drinks market, 2007-12
                                                            • Figure 6: Index of price rises for wine, spirits and cider – on-trade versus off-trade, 2000-12
                                                          • Rising prices are becoming an escalating issue
                                                            • Figure 7: UK excise duty rates for cider, beer, wine and spirits, 2003-12
                                                          • Rising prices of apples add to upward pressure on the price of cider
                                                            • Yet the craft cider market is in robust growth
                                                              • Cider can tap into a variety of occasions
                                                                  • Figure 8: Occasions for drinking in and out of the home, May 2012
                                                                  • Figure 9: Trends in agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2008-12
                                                                • Brand loyalty falls as price pressures continue to bite
                                                                  • Figure 10: Trends in agreement with lifestyle statements regarding loyalty and pricing, 2008-12
                                                              • Broader Market Environment

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Consumer confidence remains low despite the recession ending
                                                                    • Figure 11: Consumer Confidence Index, monthly, January 2007-December 2012
                                                                    • Figure 12: Hours of sunshine in the UK, by month, 2008-12
                                                                    • Figure 13: Frequency of drinking in pubs/bars, May 2012
                                                                  • Government focuses on a healthier population
                                                                    • An ageing population is a threat to the cider market
                                                                        • Figure 14: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2012-17
                                                                      • Growth in C2s set to be a major plus for the cider market
                                                                          • Figure 15: Changes in the adult socio-economic structure of the UK population, 2012-17
                                                                      • Competitive Context

                                                                        • Key points
                                                                          • Usage of many alcoholic drinks in decline
                                                                              • Figure 16: Usage of cider and competing drinks categories, in home and out of home, November 2012
                                                                            • In-home drinking appeals as a cost-effective option
                                                                            • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                              • Strengths
                                                                                • Weaknesses
                                                                                • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Flavour innovation
                                                                                      • Using packaging to boost shelf standout
                                                                                        • Cider brands commemorate and celebrate historic events
                                                                                          • NPD aims to create new occasions for drinking cider
                                                                                            • Interesting examples of global innovation
                                                                                            • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                • Cider’s value growth slows a little in 2012
                                                                                                  • Figure 17: UK value and volume sales of cider, 2007-17
                                                                                                  • Figure 18: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2007-17
                                                                                                • Volume sales hold up well
                                                                                                  • Figure 19: Forecast of UK volume sales of cider, 2007-17
                                                                                                • Forecast methodology
                                                                                                • Segment Performance

                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                    • Off-trade cider sales return to growth in 2012
                                                                                                        • Figure 20: UK value and volume sales of cider in the off-trade, 2007-17
                                                                                                        • Figure 21: Market size and forecast for the off-trade UK cider market, by value, 2007-17
                                                                                                      • Off-trade volume sales expected return to growth in 2012
                                                                                                        • On-trade gains share in the cider market in 2012
                                                                                                            • Figure 22: UK value and volume sales of cider in the on-trade, 2007-17
                                                                                                            • Figure 23: Market size and forecast for the on-trade UK cider market, by value, 2007-17
                                                                                                        • Market Share

                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                            • Strongbow continues to dominate the off-trade landscape
                                                                                                              • Figure 24: Value market share of top-selling cider brands in the off-trade, 2010-12
                                                                                                            • Other Heineken brands enjoy mixed fortunes
                                                                                                              • Stella Cidre and Kopparberg are the shining lights in 2012…
                                                                                                                • …with Frosty Jack’s also showing robust growth
                                                                                                                  • However, Magners finds its position under threat
                                                                                                                    • Sales of Lambrini plateau
                                                                                                                      • New wave of smaller brands flourishing
                                                                                                                      • Companies and Products

                                                                                                                        • AB InBev
                                                                                                                          • Aspall
                                                                                                                            • C&C Group
                                                                                                                              • Distell
                                                                                                                                • Heineken
                                                                                                                                  • Kopparberg UK (Cider of Sweden Limited)
                                                                                                                                    • Rekorderlig (Chilli Marketing)
                                                                                                                                      • Westons Cider
                                                                                                                                      • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                        • Brand map
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 25: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the cider sector, October 2012
                                                                                                                                          • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                                            • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 26: Attitudes, by cider brand, October 2012
                                                                                                                                            • Brand personality
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 27: Cider brand personality – macro image, October 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Cider brand personality – micro image, October 2012
                                                                                                                                            • Brand experience
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 29: Cider brand usage, October 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 30: Satisfaction with various cider brands, October 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 31: Consideration of cider brands, October 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 32: Consumer perceptions of current cider brand performance, October 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 33: Cider brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, October 2012
                                                                                                                                            • Brand index
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 34: Cider brand index, October 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 35: Cider brand index vs. recommendation, October 2012
                                                                                                                                            • Target group analysis
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 36: Target groups, October 2012
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 37: Cider brand usage, by target groups, October 2012
                                                                                                                                            • Group One – Conformists
                                                                                                                                              • Group Two – Simply the Best
                                                                                                                                                • Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
                                                                                                                                                  • Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
                                                                                                                                                    • Group Five – Individualists
                                                                                                                                                    • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • Adspend increased in 2011 and in the first ten months of 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Total adspend in the UK cider and perry market, 2008-12
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Total adspend for beer, lager and cider multi products, 2008-12
                                                                                                                                                        • Responsible marketing is strictly enforced
                                                                                                                                                          • Two large players dominate cider advertising in 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 40: Top advertisers in the cider and perry category, January-October 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Leading advertisers in the UK cider category, 2009-12
                                                                                                                                                          • Two brands dominate the adspend on cider in 2012
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Leading brands advertised in the UK cider category, January-October 2012
                                                                                                                                                          • Outdoor advertising encroaching on TV’s dominance
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Advertising in the UK cider category, by media, 2009-12
                                                                                                                                                          • Highlighting heritage and quality to support premium credentials
                                                                                                                                                            • Music and festivals offer a route for brands to build identity
                                                                                                                                                            • Channels to Market

                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                • Supermarkets remain the leading channel for cider sales…
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 44: Volume sales of cider, by on-trade and off-trade channels, 2009-11
                                                                                                                                                                • ...while the on-trade strikes back
                                                                                                                                                                • Consumer – Usage of Cider

                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                    • Three in five adults are now active cider drinkers
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Usage of different types of cider within the past six months, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 46: Usage of different types of cider, in home vs out of home, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                    • Apple cider still leads the way
                                                                                                                                                                      • Who drinks the different types of ciders?
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 47: Usage of the leading types of cider, by gender and age, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                        • Apple cider
                                                                                                                                                                          • Pear cider
                                                                                                                                                                            • Other fruit-flavoured ciders
                                                                                                                                                                              • 25-34-year-olds are the key usage groups for other types of cider
                                                                                                                                                                                • Three in ten adults drink three or more types of cider
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 48: Repertoire of purchase of different types of cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer – Barriers to Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cider needs to become more ‘top of mind’
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 49: Barriers to usage among cider users, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Summer associations may be holding the market back
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Taste also serves as a barrier to usage
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Lack of front of mind awareness and notable sweetness are the main deterrents for non-users
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Barriers to usage among cider non-users, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Branding leads the way when consumers buy cider
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 51: Choice factors when buying cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 52: Choice factors when buying cider and beer, October/November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Price is the other main influence for cider drinkers
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cider drinkers opening up to foreign brands
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Recommendations play a role in driving purchase for women and 18-24s
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Over-55s the most likely group to consider the cider producer
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • High levels of enthusiasm for new innovation in the cider market
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Users’ attitudes towards cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Potential for cider in a keg/box to grow
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 54: Users’ attitudes towards the packaging/format of cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Draught cider no longer equates to better quality for the majority
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Strong enthusiasm for ciders with adventurous flavours
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 55: Users’ attitudes towards range/flavour of cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Opportunities for mulled cider to grow in popularity
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Half of cider drinkers think that British is best
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 56: Users’ attitudes towards quality comparisons of cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Consumer – Characteristics of Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Cider leads the way for refreshment and natural associations
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Characteristics associated with cider and other drinks, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Cider performs strongly on a handful of other characteristics…
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • …but struggles on a handful of other associations
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Four target groups
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 58: Target groups for cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Explorers (32%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Disengaged (25%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Enthusiasts (24%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Unadventurous (19%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Internal Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 59: Agreement with lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 60: Agreement with lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2012 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Broader Market Environment

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 61: Usage of alcoholic drinks in the past 12 months, by demographics, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Market Size

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 62: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total cider market, by value, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 63: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total cider market, by volume, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Segment Performance

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the off-trade cider market, by value, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 65: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the off-trade cider market, by volume, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 66: UK off-trade volume sales of cider, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 67: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the on-trade cider market, by value, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 68: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the on-trade cider market, by volume, 2012-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 69: UK on-trade volume sales of cider, 2007-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 70: Brand usage, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 71: Brand commitment, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 72: Brand momentum, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 73: Brand diversity, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 74: Brand satisfaction, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 75: Brand recommendation, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 76: Brand attitude, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 77: Brand image – macro image, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 78: Brand image – micro image, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 79: Profile of target groups, by demographics, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 80: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 81: Brand usage, by target groups, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 82: Brand index, October 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 83: Usage of any cider, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 84: Usage of apple cider, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 85: Usage of pear cider, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 86: Usage of any other fruit-flavoured cider, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 87: Usage of any low/non-alcoholic cider, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 88: Usage of mulled/warm cider, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 89: Usage of cider in a box and perry, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 90: Usage of any craft cider (made by a small producer), by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 91: Usage of any other cider, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 92: Repertoire of usage of different types of cider, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 93: Usage of different types of cider, by repertoire of ciders used, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Barriers to Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 94: Barriers to usage among cider users, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 95: Most popular barriers to usage among cider users, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 96: Next most popular barriers to usage among cider users, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 97: Barriers to usage among cider non-users, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 98: Barriers to usage among cider non-users, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 99: Most popular choice factors when buying cider, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 100: Next most popular choice factors when buying cider, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes Towards Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 101: Users' attitudes towards cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 102: Agreement with the statements ‘I like to try many different brands and flavours of ciders’ and ‘I am open to drinking no/low-alcohol ciders’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 103: Agreement with the statements ‘I think that draught ciders taste better than bottled ones’ and ‘Own-label ciders taste as good as branded varieties’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 104: Agreement with the statements ‘I would like to see a better range of craft ciders in supermarkets and pubs/restaurants’ and ‘I would like to see more mulled ciders available’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 105: Agreement with the statements ‘I expect bottled ciders to taste better than those in a can’ and ‘I am happy to pay more for premium ciders’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 106: Agreement with the statements ‘I would be open to trying ciders with more adventurous flavours’ and ‘I think that British ciders taste better than foreign varieties’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 107: Agreement with the statements ‘I would be interested in trying cider from a box/keg if it was of high quality’ and ‘I prefer fizzy ciders to still/cloudy varieties’, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 108: Users' attitudes towards cider, by purchase of any cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 109: Users' attitudes towards cider, by most popular choice factors when buying cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 110: Users' attitudes towards cider, by next most popular choice factors when buying cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer – Characteristics of Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 111: Characteristics associated with cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 112: Main characteristics associated with cider, lager, wine and RTDs among cider drinkers, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 113: Association of ‘Refreshing’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 114: Association of ‘Summer drink’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 115: Association of ‘Sophisticated’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 116: Association of ‘Fashionable’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 117: Association of ‘Natural’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 118: Association of ‘Easy to drink’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 119: Association of ‘Suitable for men and women’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 120: Association of ‘Traditional’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 121: Association of ‘Innovative’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 122: Association of ‘Worth paying more for’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 123: Association of ‘Overrated’ with cider, lager, wine and RTDs, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 124: Characteristics associated with alcoholic drinks, by purchase of any cider, apple cider and pear cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 125: Characteristics associated with alcoholic drinks, by purchase of any other fruit-flavoured cider, any low/non-alcoholic cider and mulled/warm cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 126: Characteristics associated with alcoholic drinks, by purchase of cider in a box, perry and any craft cider, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 127: Target groups, by demographics, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 128: Purchase of different types of cider and other alcoholic drinks, by target groups, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 129: Choice factors when buying cider, by target groups, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 130: Users' attitudes towards cider, by target groups, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 131: Main characteristics associated with cider and other alcoholic drinks, by target groups, November 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 132: Barriers to usage among cider users, by target groups, November 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • AmBev (Companhia de Bebidas das Américas)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Anheuser Busch-InBev
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Aspall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Babco (UK) ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • C&C Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Carlsberg UK Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Distell Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • H P Bulmer Holdings PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Heineken N.V.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Interbrew UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Kopparbergs Brygegeri AB
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Rekorderlig
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Spotify AB
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Svenska Handelsbanken AB
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Tesco Plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Westons Cider
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • YouTube, Inc.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cider - UK - January 2013

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