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Cider - UK - January 2014

“There are strong signs of longevity in the flavoured cider segment and, with 49% of cider drinkers being interested in flavoured ciders with unusual ingredients, new flavours could help it to retain momentum.”

– Chris Wisson, Senior Drinks Analyst

Some questions answered in this report include:

  • How could possible tax and pricing changes influence the cider market?
  • Where can flavoured cider go next?
  • How can cider continue to develop its all-year-round image?
  • How can perry assert itself within the cider market?

Cider is still a relatively small market in the alcoholic drinks landscape, but is in the enviable position of being one in the ascendancy. Cider’s close associations with refreshment meant that the warm summer of 2013 buoyed sales in the off-trade, although the market is now looking to position cider as a drink which is suitable all year round.

Three in five adults now drink cider and while apple continues to dominate sales, the market is evolving beyond this and pear into flavoured ciders. Fruit-flavoured ciders continue to drive growth, with brands such as Kopparberg and Rekorderlig posting strong sales. 2013 also saw the market leader, Strongbow, move beyond apple and pear with the Dark Fruit variant, a move which has helped it to retain market share.

While volume sales in the market are posting only modest growth, value sales continue to grow as rising prices and the growing popularity of premium ciders are expected to boost the value of the market.

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Excluded
          • Abbreviations
          • Executive Summary

              • The market
                • Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2008-18
                • Figure 2: Forecast of UK volume sales of cider, 2008-18
              • Market factors
                • Alcohol consumption is in decline
                  • Rising duty adds pressures on cider producers
                    • A sunny outlook
                      • Population changes bring threats and opportunities
                        • Companies, brands and innovation
                          • Strongbow remains way out in front
                            • Figure 3: Value sales of top-selling cider brands in the off-trade, 2012/13
                          • Brands continue to step up investment in advertising
                            • The consumer
                              • Apple remains the most popular flavour
                                • Figure 4: Usage of cider, by type, October 2013
                              • Summer remains the key season
                                • Figure 5: Usage of cider in summer and winter, October 2013
                              • Cider only seeing a slight dip in usage
                                • Cider performs well in both up-tempo and low-key occasions
                                  • Cider enjoys a positive image as a refreshing and unisex drink
                                    • Figure 6: Attitudes towards cider, October 2013
                                  • Tropical and citrus flavours garner most interest
                                    • What we think
                                    • Issues in the Market

                                        • How could possible tax and pricing changes influence the cider market?
                                          • Where can flavoured cider go next?
                                            • How can cider continue to develop its all-year-round image?
                                              • How can perry assert itself within the cider market?
                                              • Trend Application

                                                  • Trend: Secret, Secret
                                                    • Trend: Prove It
                                                      • Mintel Futures: Brand Intervention
                                                      • Internal Market Environment

                                                        • Key points
                                                          • Taxes on alcoholic drinks on the rise since 2008
                                                            • Figure 7: UK excise duty rates for selected alcoholic drinks, 2003-13
                                                            • Figure 8: Index of alcoholic drinks prices versus all items prices, 2006-12
                                                          • Alcohol minimum pricing plans shelved in England and Wales
                                                            • Cider and seasonality
                                                              • Figure 9: Hours of sunshine in the UK, by month, 2008-13
                                                            • Cider enjoys unisex appeal
                                                            • Broader Market Environment

                                                              • Key points
                                                                • Consumer confidence bounces back
                                                                  • Figure 10: Consumer Confidence Index, monthly, January 2007-December 2013
                                                                • Health considerations play a part in drinking habits
                                                                  • Figure 11: Calorie and alcohol unit content of selected types of alcoholic drinks, 2013
                                                                • An ageing population needs consideration
                                                                  • Figure 12: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2013-18
                                                                • Cs and Ds could hold the key to growth
                                                                  • Figure 13: Projected changes in the socio-economic structure of the UK adult population, 2013-18
                                                              • Competitive Context

                                                                • Key points
                                                                  • Consumers cutting back on alcohol consumption
                                                                    • Figure 14: Trends in UK per capita consumption of 100% alcohol, 2006-12
                                                                    • Figure 15: Value sales of selected alcoholic drinks, 2008-12
                                                                • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                  • Strengths
                                                                    • Weaknesses
                                                                    • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                      • Key points
                                                                        • The changing face of cider NPD
                                                                          • Spirit ciders arrive on the scene
                                                                            • Coming over to the dark side
                                                                              • Global context – interesting cider launches from overseas in 2013
                                                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                  • Cider hits new heights in 2013
                                                                                    • Figure 16: UK value and volume sales of cider, at current and constant prices, 2008-18
                                                                                  • Robust growth predicted for value sales
                                                                                    • Figure 17: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2008-18
                                                                                  • Volume sales expected to continue creeping up
                                                                                    • Figure 18: Forecast of UK volume sales of cider, 2008-18
                                                                                  • Forecast methodology
                                                                                  • Segment Performance

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • 2013 was a tougher year for the on-trade
                                                                                        • Figure 19: UK value and volume sales of cider in the on-trade, at current and constant prices, 2008-18
                                                                                      • One-off events boosted sales in 2012
                                                                                        • A weaker performance in 2013
                                                                                          • A challenging 2014 ahead
                                                                                            • Figure 20: Forecast of UK value sales of cider in the on-trade, 2008-18
                                                                                            • Figure 21: Forecast of UK volume sales of cider in the on-trade, 2008-18
                                                                                          • The off-trade fared well in 2013…
                                                                                            • Figure 22: UK value and volume sales of cider in the off-trade, at current and constant prices, 2008-18
                                                                                          • …and is expected to continue providing cider operators with a safe haven
                                                                                            • Figure 23: Forecast of UK value sales of cider in the off-trade, 2008-18
                                                                                            • Figure 24: Forecast of UK volume sales of cider in the off-trade, 2008-18
                                                                                          • The off-trade is steadily increasing its share of value sales
                                                                                            • Figure 25: Share of value sales of cider in the UK, by channel, 2008-18
                                                                                        • Market Share

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Heineken and Strongbow continue to lead the way
                                                                                              • Figure 26: Share of off-trade sales of cider, by manufacturer, 2012/13
                                                                                              • Figure 27: Value sales of top-selling cider brands in the off-trade, 2011/12 and 2012/13
                                                                                            • Bulmers enjoys a strong performance
                                                                                              • Kopparberg vies for second position
                                                                                                • Magners loses further ground
                                                                                                  • Ciders from beer brewers prove popular
                                                                                                    • Frosty Jack’s and Lambrini look to leverage affordability
                                                                                                      • Many smaller players enjoy strong growth
                                                                                                      • Companies and Products

                                                                                                        • AB InBev
                                                                                                          • Aspall
                                                                                                            • C&C Group
                                                                                                              • Distell
                                                                                                                • Heineken
                                                                                                                  • Kopparberg UK (Cider of Sweden Limited)
                                                                                                                    • Rekorderlig (Chilli Marketing)
                                                                                                                      • Westons Cider
                                                                                                                      • Brand Advertising, Perceptions and Social Media

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Cider adspend continues to rise
                                                                                                                            • Figure 28: Topline above-the-line advertising spend in the UK cider market, 2009-13
                                                                                                                          • TV losing its appeal for advertisers
                                                                                                                            • Figure 29: Advertising in the UK cider category, by media, 2010-13
                                                                                                                          • Heineken dominates adspend in the market
                                                                                                                            • Figure 30: Highest-spending manufacturers in above-the-line advertising in the UK cider market, 2010-13
                                                                                                                            • Figure 31: Highest-spending brands in above-the-line advertising in the UK cider market, 2010-13
                                                                                                                          • Kopparberg leads the way among other advertisers
                                                                                                                            • Brewers support their cider launches with strong adspend
                                                                                                                              • Q2 and Q3 are key seasons for advertisers
                                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Above-the-line adspend on cider, by quarter, 2010-12
                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Advertising spend of selected cider brands over time, 26th December 2011-26th November 2013
                                                                                                                                • Figure 34: Rekorderlig advertising spend, January 2012- November 2013
                                                                                                                              • Brand perceptions
                                                                                                                                • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Key brand metrics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the cider sector, October 2013
                                                                                                                                  • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                                    • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 37: Attitudes, by cider brand, October 2013
                                                                                                                                    • Brand personality
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Cider brand personality – macro image, October 2013
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Cider brand personality – micro image, October 2013
                                                                                                                                    • Brand usage
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: Brand usage of brands in the cider sector, October 2013
                                                                                                                                    • Brand experience
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Experience of selected brands in the cider sector, October 2013
                                                                                                                                    • Social media and online buzz
                                                                                                                                      • Social media metrics
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 42: Social media metrics for selected cider brands, November 2013
                                                                                                                                      • Online conversation
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 43: Selected cider brands’ share of voice, January – November 2013
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 44: Online mentions of cider brands, January-November 2013
                                                                                                                                      • Topics of conversation
                                                                                                                                        • Flavour is the biggest driver of conversation
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 45: Topics of conversation around cider brands, January – November 2013
                                                                                                                                        • Apple is the least talked about cider flavour
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 46: Percentage of online conversation around different flavours when brands are mentioned, January-November 2013
                                                                                                                                          • Figure 47: Online sentiment towards selected cider flavours, January-November 2013
                                                                                                                                        • Online analysis by brand
                                                                                                                                          • Kopparberg
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 48: Word cloud surrounding online mentions of Kopparberg, January-November 2013
                                                                                                                                          • Strongbow
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 49: Topic cloud surrounding online mentions of Strongbow, January-November 2013
                                                                                                                                          • Stella Cidre
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 50: Topic cloud around mentions of Stella Artois, January – November 2013
                                                                                                                                          • Magners
                                                                                                                                            • Bulmers
                                                                                                                                              • Stowford Press
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 51: Types of conversation around Stowford Press, January – November 2013
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 52: Topic cloud surrounding non-competition conversation around Stowford Press, January – November 2013
                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – Usage of Cider

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • The apple of cider drinkers’ eye
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 53: Usage of cider, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 54: Usage of cider at home and out of home, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                • Pear looks to upset the apple cart
                                                                                                                                                  • Ciders by brewers hit the big time
                                                                                                                                                    • Fruit-flavoured ciders gain mainstream role
                                                                                                                                                      • Craft, low-alcohol and mulled ciders hold growth potential
                                                                                                                                                        • Boxed cider could forge a value-for-money proposition
                                                                                                                                                          • A quarter of adults drink four or more types of cider
                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Seasonality and Cider

                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                              • Summer remains the key season for cider
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Usage of cider in summer and winter, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                              • Winter usage holds up reasonably well
                                                                                                                                                              • The Consumer – Usage Trends

                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                  • The majority of cider drinkers have maintained usage
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 56: Change in usage of cider, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                  • Many drinks have been hit by cutting back
                                                                                                                                                                    • Cider has proven more resilient than many competing categories
                                                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Occasions for Usage

                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                        • Cider performs well in both up- and low-tempo occasions
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 57: Occasions for usage of cider, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                        • Cider proves popular at events
                                                                                                                                                                          • Relaxing at home leads the way
                                                                                                                                                                            • Cider and food: a match made in heaven?
                                                                                                                                                                              • The social side of cider
                                                                                                                                                                              • The Consumer – Attitudes towards Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Summary of attitudes towards cider
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Attitudes towards cider, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cider enjoys a strong unisex appeal
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 59: Attitudes relating to the positioning of cider, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Sharing bottles could provide scope for growth
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Strong interest in trying adventurous flavours
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 60: Attitudes relating to flavours of cider, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cider could push premium cues harder
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 61: Attitudes relating to the premiumisation of cider, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Tastes are split among cider drinkers
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 62: Attitudes relating to preferences of cider, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Lower-alcohol variants could provide opportunities for growth
                                                                                                                                                                                    • The Consumer – Interest in Flavoured Ciders

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Strong interest in tropical and citrus flavours
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 63: Interest in different flavours of cider, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 64: Interest in different flavours of cider, by gender, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                        • ‘Adult’ flavours offer potential routes to appeal to older cider drinkers
                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Four target groups
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Target groups, September 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Fruit Fanatics (33%)
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Traditionalists (24%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Enthusiasts (22%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Disengaged (21%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market Size and Segment Performance

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 66: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the cider market, by value, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 67: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the cider market, by volume, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 68: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the on-trade cider market, by value, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 69: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the on-trade cider market, by volume, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 70: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the off-trade cider market, by value, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 71: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the off-trade cider market, by volume, 2013-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Market Share

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 72: Volume sales of top-selling cider brands in the off-trade, 2011/12 and 2012/13
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – Brand Advertising, Perceptions and Social Media

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Brand usage, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 74: Brand commitment, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 75: Brand diversity, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 76: Brand satisfaction, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 77: Brand recommendation, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 78: Brand attitude, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 79: Brand image – macro image, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 80: Brand image – micro image, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Online mentions
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 81: Online mentions of selected cider brands, 30th December 2012 – 24th November 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 82: Online mentions by topics of discussion, 30th December 2012 – 24th November 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 83: Breakdown of flavour mentions, by flavour, 30th December 2012 – 24th November 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Usage of Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 84: Types of cider drunk at home, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 85: Most popular types of cider drunk at home, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 86: Next most popular types of cider drunk at home, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 87: Types of cider drunk out of home, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 88: Most popular types of cider drunk out of home, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 89: Next most popular types of cider drunk out of home, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 90: Non-usage of cider, by type, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 91: Non-usage of types of cider, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 92: Non-usage of types of cider, by demographics, October 2013 (continued)
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Repertoire
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 93: Repertoire of most popular types of cider, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Seasonality and Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 94: Usage of cider in summer and winter, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 95: Usage of cider in summer, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 96: Usage of cider in winter, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Usage Trends

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 97: Changes in drinking habits of cider, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 98: Changes in drinking habits of cider, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Occasions for Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 99: Occasions for drinking cider, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 100: Most popular occasions for drinking cider, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 101: Next most popular occasions for drinking cider, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 102: Other occasions for drinking cider, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes towards Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 103: Attitudes towards cider, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 104: Agreement with the statements ‘Cider is a drink which is suitable for both men and women’ and ‘Cider is more refreshing than beer on sunny days’, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 105: Agreement with the statements ‘I am interested in trying flavoured ciders with unusual ingredients ’ and ‘Apple ciders are of higher quality than those with other fruit flavours’, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 106: Agreement with the statements ‘I am interested in larger ‘sharing’ bottles for when I drink cider at home’ and ‘It is worth paying more for ciders which have taken longer to produce’, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 107: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer ciders from smaller companies to those produced by large companies’ and ‘Cider is a sophisticated drink’, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 108: Agreement with the statements ‘Ciders made from only one type of apple/pear are better than those which use several types’ and ‘It is worth paying more for ciders which use the first harvest of apples’, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 109: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer still/cloudy ciders to fizzy ones’ and ‘I prefer ciders with lower alcohol content to those with a higher alcohol content’, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix – The Consumer – Interest in Flavoured Ciders

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 110: Interest in different flavours of cider, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 111: Most popular interest in different flavours of cider, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 112: Next most popular interest in different flavours of cider, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Examples of international innovation using some of these flavours
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – The Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 113: Target groups, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 114: Target groups, by demographics, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 115: Types of cider drunk either at home and/or out of home (eg in pubs, bars), by target groups, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 116: Usage of cider in summer and winter, by target groups, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 117: Drinking habits of cider, by target groups, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 118: Occasions for drinking cider, by target groups, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 119: Attitudes towards cider, by target groups, October 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 120: Interest in different flavours of cider, by target groups, October 2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

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                                                                                                                                                                                                    Cider - UK - January 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                    £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)