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Cider - UK - January 2015

“Talking about the use of specific apple/pear varieties in a similar way as beer is now doing with hops could further build premium cues by strengthening an image of quality ingredients.”
– Chris Wisson, Senior Drinks Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Up the apples and pears
  • Leveraging the appeal of a ‘craft’ proposition
  • Driving category growth with flavour
  • Realigning cider with food

Following several years of strong growth, 2014 was a far more challenging year for the cider market. A surprising 1% dip in volumes ended a sustained period of growth when cider’s penetration in the UK has risen significantly. Over half of Brits reported to drink cider in the 12 months to October 2014 and while apple is the most popular variant and dominates sales, it saw a 1% dip in values in off-trade values last year. Pear is faring even worse, with off-trade values declining by more than a quarter, with fruit-flavoured ciders appearing to be picking up much of this business.

Cider’s muted 2014 performance is also likely to be the result of a rejuvenated beer category which saw volumes bounce back into growth for the first time since the 2008/09 onset of the economic recession. Despite another hot summer, cider only saw limited benefit as the increasingly innovative beer market also saw an uplift from the football World Cup.

Much of the innovation in the cider market has been more predictable, with a slew of new flavours adding little incremental growth to the category. Developing a more dynamic craft segment as well as giving greater emphasis to ingredient quality and heritage are two possible ways for brands to drive the cider market back into growth in 2015 and beyond.

All ciders are included within this report: low/no-alcohol to super-strength; draught and packaged cider; unflavoured and flavoured ciders; still and sparkling ciders.

The NACM (National Association of Cider Makers) Code of Practice states that the alcohol content of cider must be greater than 1.2% ABV but less than 8.5% ABV; products in excess of 8.5% ABV are classified as apple wine.

Perry and pear cider are both included in this report. Whilst it is recognised that perry refers to a drink made using fermented pear juice, this term is used to describe light perries that are sold as wine-style drinks (eg Lambrini). Perries that are sold alongside ciders are referred to, for the purposes of this report, as pear cider.

Flavoured ciders refers to those ciders that are marketed as ciders but contain flavourings or fruit other than pear or apple. Examples include Kopparberg Mixed Fruit and Brothers Strawberry and Mixed Pear Cider, among others.

Both on- and off-trade sales are included in the UK market size. Value sales throughout this report are at consumer prices. Market sizes at constant 2014 prices are devised using Mintel’s alcoholic drinks deflator. 

Excluded:

Apple-flavoured alcoholic carbonates are excluded from market size calculations in this report.

Duty-free sales and personal imports are excluded from market size calculations.

 

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Table of contents

  1. Introduction

      • Definition
        • Excluded
          • Abbreviations
          • Executive Summary

              • The market
                • Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2009-19
              • Market factors
                • Alcohol consumption is in decline
                  • Rising duty adds pressures on cider producers
                    • A sunny outlook
                      • Cider is seen as a unisex drink
                        • Population changes bring threats and opportunities
                          • Companies, brands and innovation
                            • Figure 2: Value sales of top-selling cider brands in the off-trade, 2013/14
                          • Cider adspend continues to rise
                            • The consumer
                              • Apple remains the most popular type of cider
                                • Figure 3: Usage of cider, by type, October 2014
                              • Glass bottles are much more popular than cans
                                • Figure 4: Preferences regarding various attributes of cider, October 2014
                              • Apple cider scores well on many metrics but has room for improvement
                                • High-quality ingredients are key to projecting a premium image
                                  • Figure 5: Factors associated with premium cider (any ranking 1-5), October 2014
                                • Scope for growth for food and cider matching
                                  • Figure 6: Attitudes towards cider, October 2014
                                • What we think
                                • Issues and Insights

                                    • Up the apples and pears
                                      • The facts
                                        • The implications
                                          • Leveraging the appeal of a ‘craft’ proposition
                                            • The facts
                                              • The implications
                                                • Driving category growth with flavour
                                                  • The facts
                                                    • The implications
                                                      • Realigning cider with food
                                                        • The facts
                                                          • The implications
                                                          • Trend Application

                                                              • Prove It
                                                                • Sense of the Intense
                                                                  • Objectify
                                                                  • Market Drivers

                                                                    • Key points
                                                                      • Alcoholic drink prices continue to rise
                                                                        • Figure 7: RPI indexed annual change for alcoholic drinks prices versus all items except housing, 2000-13
                                                                        • Figure 8: UK excise duty rates for selected alcoholic drinks, 2003-14
                                                                      • Cider and seasonality
                                                                        • Figure 9: Hours of sunshine in the UK, by month, 2009-14
                                                                      • Cider enjoys unisex appeal
                                                                        • Financial health recovers but remains fragile
                                                                          • An ageing population could pose a threat to the cider market
                                                                            • Figure 10: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2014-19
                                                                        • Competitive Context

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • UK consumers continue to cut back on alcohol
                                                                              • Figure 11: Trends in UK per capita consumption of 100% alcohol, 2006-13
                                                                              • Figure 12: HM Treasury estimated changes in volume consumption of alcohol over 2014/15-2018/19 following changes to alcohol duty in Budget 2014, April 2014
                                                                            • Cider has been the strongest performer since 2009
                                                                                • Figure 13: Value sales of selected alcoholic drinks categories, 2009-14
                                                                            • Strengths and Weaknesses

                                                                              • Strengths
                                                                                • Weaknesses
                                                                                • Who’s Innovating?

                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                    • Cider innovation continues to revolve mainly around flavour
                                                                                    • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Cider’s growth grinds to a halt in 2014
                                                                                          • Figure 14: UK value and volume sales of cider, at current and constant prices, 2009-19
                                                                                          • Figure 15: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2009-19
                                                                                          • Figure 16: Forecast of UK volume sales of cider, 2009-19
                                                                                        • Forecast methodology
                                                                                        • Channel and Segment Performance

                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                            • Volumes slip into decline in both channels
                                                                                              • Figure 17: UK value and volume sales of cider in the on-trade, at current and constant prices, 2009-14
                                                                                              • Figure 18: UK value and volume sales of cider in the off-trade, at current and constant prices, 2009-14
                                                                                            • Flavoured cider driving off-trade growth
                                                                                                • Figure 19: Off-trade value sales of cider, by flavour/type, 2013/14
                                                                                              • Is 2014 a one-off or a warning of things to come?
                                                                                              • Market Share

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Heineken dominates the off-trade
                                                                                                    • Figure 20: Leading manufacturers’ shares of cider sales in the off-trade, by value and volume, 2013/14
                                                                                                    • Figure 21: Value sales of top-selling cider brands in the off-trade, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                                    • Figure 22: Volume sales of top-selling cider brands in the off-trade, 2012/13 and 2013/14
                                                                                                  • Fruit ciders continue to drive market growth
                                                                                                    • Several other brands are also enjoying strong growth…
                                                                                                      • …while others are struggling
                                                                                                      • Companies and Products

                                                                                                        • AB InBev
                                                                                                          • Overview and product range
                                                                                                            • Recent activity
                                                                                                              • Aspall
                                                                                                                • Overview and product range
                                                                                                                  • Recent activity
                                                                                                                    • C&C Group
                                                                                                                      • Overview and product range
                                                                                                                        • Recent activity
                                                                                                                          • Distell
                                                                                                                            • Overview and product range
                                                                                                                              • Heineken
                                                                                                                                • Overview and product range
                                                                                                                                  • Recent activity
                                                                                                                                    • Kopparberg UK (Cider of Sweden Limited)
                                                                                                                                      • Overview and product range
                                                                                                                                        • Recent activity
                                                                                                                                          • Rekorderlig (Chilli Marketing)
                                                                                                                                            • Overview and product range
                                                                                                                                              • Recent activity
                                                                                                                                                • Westons Cider
                                                                                                                                                  • Overview and product range
                                                                                                                                                    • Recent activity
                                                                                                                                                    • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                        • Cider adspend sees a significant upturn in 2013
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 23: Above-the-line adspend in the UK cider market, 2011-14
                                                                                                                                                        • Heineken dominates cider adspend
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 24: Highest-spending manufacturers in above-the-line advertising in the UK cider market, 2011-14
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 25: Leading advertisers in the UK cider category, by company, 2013
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 26: Highest-spending brands in above-the-line advertising in the UK cider market, 2011-14
                                                                                                                                                        • Brewers continue to support their new cider brands
                                                                                                                                                          • Thatchers investing in brand growth
                                                                                                                                                            • TV falling from favour
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 27: Above-the-line advertising in the UK cider market, by media channel, 2011-14
                                                                                                                                                          • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                                            • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 28: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the cider sector, November 2014
                                                                                                                                                              • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                                                                • Brand attitudes
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 29: Attitudes, by cider brand, November 2014
                                                                                                                                                                • Brand personality
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 30: Cider brand personality – macro image, November 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 31: Cider brand personality – micro image, November 2014
                                                                                                                                                                • Brand experience
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 32: Cider brand usage, November 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 33: Satisfaction with various cider brands, November 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 34: Consideration of cider brands, November 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Consumer perceptions of current cider brand performance, November 2014
                                                                                                                                                                • Brand recommendation
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 36: Recommendation of selected cider brands, November 2014
                                                                                                                                                              • The Consumer – Usage of Cider

                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                  • Apple remains the most popular type of cider
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Usage of cider, by type, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Usage of cider at home and out of home, by type, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                  • Tough times for pear
                                                                                                                                                                    • Fruit-flavoured ciders hitting the sweet spot
                                                                                                                                                                      • Innovation in smaller cider segments looks set to drive growth
                                                                                                                                                                        • A third of adults drink one or two types of cider
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 39: Repertoire of usage of different types of ciders, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                        • 41% of cider drinkers enjoy the drink weekly
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 40: Frequency of usage of cider, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Cider Preferences

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • Glass bottles are much more popular than cans
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 41: Preferences regarding selected attributes of cider, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 42: Preferences in cider bottle size, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 43: Preferences in cider can size, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                          • Apple is the most popular cider type but fruit is growing
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 44: Quantity of cider and made wine (hectolitres) released for consumption in the UK, 2004/05-2013/14
                                                                                                                                                                            • Mainstream ciders still preferred by more drinkers than small producers’
                                                                                                                                                                              • Only a third prefer cheaper ciders
                                                                                                                                                                                • Serving and carbonation preferences are split
                                                                                                                                                                                • The Consumer – Qualities Associated with Different Types of Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Apple cider scores well for many metrics but has room for improvement
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Qualities associated with different types of cider and beer, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Fruit-flavoured ciders evoke fewer associations
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Pear fails to ‘own’ associations
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Beer viewed surprisingly negatively
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Correspondence analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 46: Correspondence map, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                          • The Consumer – Factors Associated with Premium Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                              • High-quality ingredients are key to projecting a premium image
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 47: Factors associated with premium cider (any ranking 1-5), October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 48: Qualities associated with premium cider (rank 1), October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                              • A compelling backstory can resonate
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Packaging and availability can provide supplementary premium cues
                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Consumer – Attitudes towards Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cider and food: a match made in heaven?
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 49: Attitudes towards cider, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Are there signs of NPD fatigue?
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 50: Agreement with selected statements regarding new cider products, by gender, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Growth potential for boxed ciders and those leveraging juice content
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Consumer – Target Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Four target groups
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 51: Target groups for cider, October 2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Adventurers (31%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Disengaged (29%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Traditionalists (20%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Moderators (20%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK cider market, by value, 2014-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK cider market, by volume, 2014-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Aspall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Babco (UK) ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Burn Stewart
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • C&C Group plc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Distell Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Greene King Brewing and Retailing Ltd
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • H P Bulmer Holdings PLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Heineken N.V.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Interbrew UK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • InterbrewAmBev
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Kopparbergs Brygegeri AB
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Microsoft Ltd (UK)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Rekorderlig
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Shortlist Media
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Spirit Pub Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The North Face Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Westons Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Cider - UK - January 2015

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