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Cider - UK - January 2016

“Positioning 750ml sharing bottles of ciders alongside wines on restaurant/pub menus should help to boost cider’s perceived sophistication and links to food-led drinking occasions.”

– Chris Wisson, Senior Drinks Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

  • Cider can move into wine’s territory
  • Can cloudy cider point the way back to growth for apple cider?
  • Cross-category promotions can boost cider (and beer) sales
  • Cider can compete with beer more effectively

Cider has been one of the best-performing drinks categories over the past decade. While some apple cider brands have enjoyed a successful few years, much of this growth was – and continues to be – driven by fruit ciders such as Kopparberg and Rekorderlig. However, the past two years have been sobering for the category. A dip in volume sales in 2014 was followed up by a larger 20 million litre decline in 2015, while values fell into decline for the first time in over a decade last year.

Cider penetration remains high, only 7 percentage points less than beer. However, cider continues to lack sessionability and it remains a much smaller market than beer. The majority of NPD (New Product Development) continues to focus on flavoured variants, taking the category further away from its traditional roots. Cider sales are also likely to have been hampered by the market not effectively leveraging the ‘craft’ trend which has served beer so well in recent years.

As such, cider stands at something of a crossroads and it is unclear whether the category will regain momentum or fall back into its pre-2005 malaise. Mintel expects the market to post modest value growth in the coming years.

All ciders are included within this report: low/no-alcohol to super-strength; draught and packaged cider; unflavoured and flavoured ciders; still and sparkling ciders. Both on- and off-trade sales are included in the UK market size.

The NACM (National Association of Cider Makers) Code of Practice states that the alcohol content of cider must be greater than 1.2% ABV (Alcohol by Volume) but less than 8.5% ABV; products in excess of 8.5% ABV are classified as apple wine. This definition of cider is used for this report.

Perry and pear cider are both included in this report. Whilst it is recognised that perry refers to a drink made using fermented pear juice, this term is used to describe light perries that are sold as wine-style drinks (eg Lambrini). Perries that are sold alongside ciders are referred to, for the purposes of this report, as pear cider.

Flavoured cider refers to drinks marketed as ciders that contain flavourings or fruit other than pear or apple. Examples include Kopparberg Mixed Fruit and Brothers Strawberry and Mixed Pear Cider, among others.

Apple-flavoured alcoholic carbonates are excluded from market size calculations in this report. Duty-free sales and personal imports are also excluded from market size calculations.

 

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Covered in the report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Cider value sales dip into decline
              • The on-trade outperforms the off-trade
                • Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2010-20
              • Companies, brands and innovation
                • Heineken leads in the retail cider market
                  • Strongbow holds onto its lead despite the rise of fruit ciders
                    • Mixed fortunes for fruit ciders
                      • Figure 2: Retail value sales of the leading cider brands in the UK, 2014/15*
                    • Cider adspend on the rise
                      • Cloudy cider back on the NPD radar
                        • The consumer
                          • Cider penetration stands at 56%
                            • Figure 3: Usage of types of cider, October 2015
                          • Half of cider drinkers list apple as their favourite flavour/type
                            • Cider becomes less seasonal
                              • Supermarkets remain the most popular place to buy cider
                                • Standard formats gain highest preference
                                  • Only 30% of cider drinkers are prepared to spend more than £4 per pint
                                    • Figure 4: Amount willing to spend on a pint of cider, October 2015
                                  • Strong interest in cloudy ciders and cider from different countries
                                    • Figure 5: Attitudes towards cider, October 2015
                                  • What we think
                                  • Issues and Insights

                                    • Cider can move into wine’s territory
                                      • The facts
                                        • The implications
                                          • Can cloudy cider point the way back to growth for apple cider?
                                            • The facts
                                              • The implications
                                                • Cross-category promotions can boost cider (and beer) sales
                                                  • The facts
                                                    • The implications
                                                      • Cider can compete with beer more effectively
                                                        • The facts
                                                          • The implications
                                                          • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                            • Cider struggles to regain momentum
                                                              • The on-trade outperforms the off-trade
                                                                • Alcoholic drink prices continue to rise
                                                                  • UK consumers continue to cut back on alcohol
                                                                    • Cider becoming more of an all-year-round drink
                                                                    • Market Size and Segmentation

                                                                      • Cider struggles to regain momentum
                                                                        • Figure 6: Total value sales of cider, at current and constant prices, 2010-20
                                                                        • Figure 7: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2010-20
                                                                      • The on-trade outperforms the off-trade
                                                                        • Fruit ciders continue to thrive
                                                                          • Figure 8: Value and volume sales of cider, by channel, 2010-15
                                                                      • Market Drivers

                                                                        • Alcoholic drink prices continue to rise
                                                                          • Figure 9: UK excise duty rates for selected alcoholic drinks, 2005-15
                                                                        • Cider enjoys a lower excise duty than beer
                                                                          • Fruit-flavoured ciders are taxed as made wines
                                                                            • UK consumers continue to cut back on alcohol
                                                                              • Government focus on healthy lifestyles
                                                                                • An embattled on-trade industry
                                                                                  • Cider becoming more of an all-year-round drink
                                                                                    • Figure 10: Hours of sunshine in the UK, by month, 2010-15
                                                                                  • Cider appeals to both genders
                                                                                    • Figure 11: Quantity of cider and made wine released for consumption in the UK, 2004/05-2014/15
                                                                                  • Population changes could also impact the market
                                                                                  • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                                                                    • Heineken leads in the retail cider market
                                                                                      • Strongbow holds onto its lead
                                                                                        • Mixed fortunes for fruit ciders
                                                                                          • Cider adspend on the rise
                                                                                            • Cloudy cider back on the NPD radar
                                                                                            • Market Share

                                                                                              • Heineken leads the retail cider market
                                                                                                • Figure 12: Leading manufacturers’ shares of cider sales in the UK off-trade, 2014/15*
                                                                                              • Strongbow holds onto its lead despite the rise of fruit ciders
                                                                                                • Figure 13: Retail value sales of the leading cider brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15
                                                                                              • Traditional apple cider brands still strong
                                                                                                • Magners and Frosty Jack’s continue to see sales slide
                                                                                                • Brand Communication and Promotion

                                                                                                  • Cider adspend on the rise
                                                                                                    • Heineken continues to be the big spender on cider advertising
                                                                                                        • Figure 14: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on cider, by company, 2011-15
                                                                                                        • Figure 15: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on cider, by brand, 2011-15
                                                                                                      • Other selected brand campaigns
                                                                                                        • Beer brands pitch for premium image
                                                                                                          • Traditional cider brands focus on quality
                                                                                                            • Kopparberg continues pop-up festival
                                                                                                              • Outdoor becoming more popular for cider advertisers at TV’s expense
                                                                                                              • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                • A return to cloudy cider
                                                                                                                  • Flavour innovation remains popular
                                                                                                                    • More brands look to forge a premium image
                                                                                                                      • New entrants innovate with provenance
                                                                                                                      • Brand Research

                                                                                                                          • What you need to know
                                                                                                                            • Brand map
                                                                                                                              • Figure 16: Attitudes towards and usage of selected cider brands, November 2015
                                                                                                                            • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                              • Figure 17: Key metrics for selected cider brands, November 2015
                                                                                                                            • Brand attitudes: Strongbow seen as a good value option
                                                                                                                              • Figure 18: Attitudes, by cider brand, November 2015
                                                                                                                            • Brand personality – Kopparberg and Magners share an upbeat brand image
                                                                                                                              • Figure 19: Brand personality – Macro image, November 2015
                                                                                                                            • Westons associated with tradition and authenticity
                                                                                                                              • Figure 20: Brand personality – Micro image, November 2015
                                                                                                                            • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                              • Kopparberg strongly appeals to 18-24s
                                                                                                                                • Figure 21: User profile of Kopparberg, November 2015
                                                                                                                              • Magners has an all-round image
                                                                                                                                • Figure 22: User profile of Magners, November 2015
                                                                                                                              • Westons is associated with tradition, but struggles to connect with young groups
                                                                                                                                • Figure 23: User profile of Westons, November 2015
                                                                                                                              • Stella Cidre is thought of as stylish and sophisticated
                                                                                                                                • Figure 24: User profile of Stella Cidre, November 2015
                                                                                                                              • Carling Cider reaches equal awareness to Kopparberg
                                                                                                                                • Figure 25: User profile of Carling Cider, November 2015
                                                                                                                              • Strongbow noted for value but has lower recommendation
                                                                                                                                • Figure 26: User profile of Strongbow, November 2015
                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                              • Cider penetration stands at 56%
                                                                                                                                • Half of cider drinkers list apple as their favourite flavour/type
                                                                                                                                  • Cider becomes less seasonal
                                                                                                                                    • Supermarkets remain the most popular place to buy cider
                                                                                                                                      • Standard formats gain highest preference
                                                                                                                                        • Only 30% of cider drinkers are prepared to spend more than £4 per pint
                                                                                                                                          • Strong interest in cloudy ciders and cider from different countries
                                                                                                                                            • Cider can tap into the craft trend
                                                                                                                                            • Usage of Cider

                                                                                                                                              • Cider penetration stands at 56%
                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Usage of beer and cider, by age, October 2015
                                                                                                                                                • Apple is still core to the market
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 28: Usage of types of cider, October 2015
                                                                                                                                                  • Ciders made by large and small producers
                                                                                                                                                    • Usage of other types of cider remains niche
                                                                                                                                                      • A third of adults drink one or two types of cider
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 29: Repertoire of usage of types of cider, October 2015
                                                                                                                                                    • Favourite Types of Cider

                                                                                                                                                      • Half of cider drinkers list apple as their favourite flavour/type…
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 30: Favourite flavours/types of cider, October 2015
                                                                                                                                                        • …while 24% identify fruit ciders as their favourite
                                                                                                                                                        • Cider and Seasonality

                                                                                                                                                          • Over-ice serve has linked cider to summer
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 31: Frequency of drinking cider, by season, October 2015
                                                                                                                                                          • Selected quotes about cider and seasonality
                                                                                                                                                          • Locations for Buying Cider

                                                                                                                                                            • Supermarkets remain the most popular place to buy cider
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Locations for buying cider, October 2015
                                                                                                                                                              • Online opportunities?
                                                                                                                                                                • On-trade purchasing venues
                                                                                                                                                                • Preferred Packaging Formats

                                                                                                                                                                  • Standard formats gain highest preference
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 33: Preferred packaging formats for cider, October 2015
                                                                                                                                                                  • Opportunities for smaller formats
                                                                                                                                                                    • Larger formats only gain limited preference
                                                                                                                                                                    • On-trade Spending on Cider

                                                                                                                                                                      • Only 18% of cider drinkers would spend less than £3 per pint
                                                                                                                                                                        • Nearly half of drinkers would spend £3 or more
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Amount cider drinkers are willing to spend on a pint of cider, October 2015
                                                                                                                                                                        • Half of drinkers expect a half pint for less than £2
                                                                                                                                                                          • £2-2.49 can be a lucrative bracket for half pints
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 35: Amount cider drinkers are willing to spend on a half pint of cider, October 2015
                                                                                                                                                                        • Attitudes towards Cider

                                                                                                                                                                          • Strong interest in cider from different countries
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 36: Attitudes towards cider, October 2015
                                                                                                                                                                          • Cloudy cider has wide appeal
                                                                                                                                                                            • Can cider leverage a craft positioning?
                                                                                                                                                                              • Interest in details of how cider is made
                                                                                                                                                                                • Concerns about ingredients
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Scope to cut out the middleman
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Promoting cider and food matching
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Building a sophisticated image
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                                                                                                                                        • Data sources
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Brand research
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Size and Segmentation

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total cider market, by value, 2015-20
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Appendix – Market Share

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Manufacturers’ shares of cider sales in the UK off-trade, 2014/15*
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 39: Retail volume sales of the leading cider brands in the UK, 2012/13-2014/15

                                                                                                                                                                                                Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                Cider - UK - January 2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                £1,995.00 (Excl.Tax)