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Cider - UK - January 2017

“Interest in authenticity can be further mined by brands by providing more information about the ingredients and processes used by their skilled cider makers. Importantly, it needs to be spelled out how these factors contribute to products’ signature taste profile, highlighting the flavour as inimitable.”

– Emma Clifford, Senior Food and Drink Analyst

This report looks at the following issues:

  • Still scope for flavour innovation to engage, but it needs to be different
  • Cider makers should react to consumers' thirst for knowledge, particularly those boasting traditional methods
  • With many consumers cutting back on alcohol, innovation in smaller formats is timely

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Products covered in this Report
      • Executive Summary

          • The market
            • Third consecutive decline in volume sales in 2016
              • Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2011-21
            • The future
              • Companies and brands
                • Heineken’s lead falls slightly in 2016
                  • Traditional English ciders and world ciders are star performers
                    • Figure 2: Leading manufacturers’ shares of cider sales in the UK off-trade, 2015/16*
                  • Fruit cider continues to be a hotbed of NPD activity
                    • Adspend slashed by almost a quarter in 2015
                      • The consumer
                        • Areas of growth in cider usage, despite dip in overall usage
                          • Figure 3: Types of cider drunk, October 2015 and October 2016
                        • Locally-produced cider can help to drive growth among over-35s
                          • Still room for more flavour innovation
                            • Figure 4: Interest in innovation in cider, October 2016
                          • The single-most appealing factor is a unique taste
                            • Figure 5: Appealing factors for cider, by rank, October 2016
                          • Food pairing is an underutilised opportunity for cider
                            • An appetite for knowing more about cider making
                              • Figure 6: Attitudes towards cider, October 2016
                            • Refreshment is fundamental to the enjoyment of cider
                              • Figure 7: Consumers’ definition of a “great” cider, October 2016
                            • What we think
                            • Issues and Insights

                              • Still scope for flavour innovation to engage, but it needs to be different
                                • The facts
                                  • The implications
                                    • Cider makers should react to consumers’ thirst for knowledge, particularly those boasting traditional methods
                                      • The facts
                                        • The implications
                                          • With many consumers cutting back on alcohol, innovation in smaller formats is timely
                                            • The facts
                                              • The implications
                                              • The Market – What You Need to Know

                                                • Third consecutive decline in volume sales in 2016
                                                  • Rising prices have buoyed value growth
                                                    • Inflation to become re-embedded in the cider market
                                                      • Growth in the on-trade in 2015, despite difficult times for this channel
                                                        • Volume and value sales return to growth in the off-trade in 2016
                                                          • Concerns over sugar are a hurdle for cider
                                                            • New alcohol guidelines draw more attention to health risks
                                                              • Ageing population and slowdown in growth of 25-34s pose a challenge
                                                              • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                • Third consecutive decline in volume sales in 2016
                                                                  • Figure 8: Total value sales of cider, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
                                                                • The future
                                                                  • Inflation to become re-embedded in the cider market
                                                                    • Figure 9: Forecast of UK value sales of cider, 2011-21
                                                                  • Volume sales set to continue to slide
                                                                    • Figure 10: Forecast of UK volume sales of cider, 2011-21
                                                                  • The impact of the EU Referendum
                                                                    • Figure 11: Alternative scenarios for the cider market, 2016-21
                                                                  • Negative impacts of Brexit expected to kick in in 2017
                                                                    • Briton’s optimism demonstrates the “keep calm and carry on” ethos
                                                                      • A repeat of the 2009 sales surge is not likely on the cards
                                                                        • Forecast methodology
                                                                        • Channels to Market

                                                                          • Growth in the on-trade in 2015, despite difficult times for this channel
                                                                            • Figure 12: Value and volume sales of cider, by channel, 2010-15
                                                                          • Volume and value sales return to growth in the off-trade in 2016
                                                                          • Market Drivers

                                                                            • Concerns over sugar are a hurdle for cider
                                                                              • Unmet demand for low-calorie ciders
                                                                                • New alcohol guidelines draw more attention to health risks
                                                                                  • Smaller formats allow drinkers to still have the “real thing”
                                                                                    • The small tax relief for alcohol producers is set to be outweighed by other upward pressures on cost
                                                                                      • Figure 13: UK excise duty rates for selected alcoholic drinks, 2004-16
                                                                                    • Weakening of the Pound set to push prices of imported alcohol upwards
                                                                                      • The on-trade set to be affected by more cautious spending habits
                                                                                        • The new Pubs Code
                                                                                          • Ageing population and slowdown in growth of 25-34s pose a challenge
                                                                                            • Figure 14: Change in age structure of the UK population, 2011-16 and 2016-21
                                                                                        • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                                                                                          • Heineken’s lead falls slightly in 2016
                                                                                            • Strongbow and Magners returns to value growth in 2016
                                                                                              • Traditional English go from strength to strength
                                                                                                • Fruit ciders continue to flourish
                                                                                                  • Fruit cider remains a hotbed of NPD activity
                                                                                                    • The 330ml can format is given more attention
                                                                                                      • Adspend slashed by almost a quarter in 2015
                                                                                                      • Market Share

                                                                                                        • Heineken’s lead narrows slightly in 2016
                                                                                                          • Bulmers is the weak link in the Heineken portfolio
                                                                                                            • Strongbow returns to value growth in 2016
                                                                                                              • Figure 15: Leading manufacturers’ shares of retail cider sales in the UK, 2015/16*
                                                                                                              • Figure 16: Retail value sales of the leading cider brands in the UK, 2014/15-2015/16
                                                                                                            • Traditional English go from strength to strength
                                                                                                              • Fruit ciders continue to flourish
                                                                                                                • A turnaround in the fortunes of Magners
                                                                                                                  • Figure 17: Retail value sales of the leading cider manufacturers in the UK, 2014/15-2015/16
                                                                                                                • Lambrini holds the lion’s share of the perry market
                                                                                                                  • Figure 18: Retail value sales of the leading perry brands in the UK, 2015-16
                                                                                                              • Launch Activity and Innovation

                                                                                                                • Fruit cider continues to be a hotbed of NPD activity
                                                                                                                  • Smirnoff enters the fruit cider market
                                                                                                                    • Botanicals and spices add sophistication to fruit flavours
                                                                                                                      • Heineken goes super-premium with Cidrerie Stassen
                                                                                                                        • The 330ml can format is given more attention
                                                                                                                          • New line from Thatchers
                                                                                                                            • Weston’s expands its canned craft cider range and adds a hopped variant
                                                                                                                              • Other cider brands embracing the 330ml can format
                                                                                                                                • Packaging redesigns for mainstream brands
                                                                                                                                • Advertising and Marketing Activity

                                                                                                                                  • Adspend slashed by almost a quarter in 2015
                                                                                                                                    • Figure 19: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cider, 2012-16
                                                                                                                                  • Strongbow centres its advertising on Team GB
                                                                                                                                    • Thatchers continues to up its investment on advertising
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 20: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on cider, by top 15 advertisers in 2015, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                    • ‘Seize the day’ is the message from Kopparberg
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 21: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on cider, by top 10 brands in 2015, 2011-16
                                                                                                                                    • Old Mout becomes the third biggest spender in 2016
                                                                                                                                      • ‘Hold True’ campaign accompanies Magners’ packaging revamp
                                                                                                                                        • Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
                                                                                                                                        • Brand Research

                                                                                                                                            • Brand map
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 22: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, November 2016
                                                                                                                                            • Key brand metrics
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 23: Key metrics for selected brands, November 2016
                                                                                                                                            • Brand attitudes: Kopparberg and Rekorderlig seen most widely as worth paying more for
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 24: Attitudes, by brand, November 2016
                                                                                                                                            • Brand personality: Strongbow is seen as more tired and boring than other brands
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 25: Brand personality – Macro image, November 2016
                                                                                                                                            • Strongbow and Bulmers have the most traditional image
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 26: Brand personality – Micro image, November 2016
                                                                                                                                            • Brand analysis
                                                                                                                                              • Kopparberg has an enviable reputation all-round
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 27: User profile of Kopparberg, November 2016
                                                                                                                                              • Stark similarities in the brand personality of Rekorderlig and Kopparberg
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 28: User profile of Rekorderlig, November 2016
                                                                                                                                              • Magners has a middle-of-the-road image
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 29: User profile of Magners, November 2016
                                                                                                                                              • Stella Artois Cidre needs to build brand trust
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 30: User profile of Stella Artois Cidre, November 2016
                                                                                                                                              • Bulmers struggles to differentiate itself
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 31: User profile of Bulmers, November 2016
                                                                                                                                              • Strongbow widely seen as accessible
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 32: User profile of Strongbow, November 2016
                                                                                                                                            • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                                                                                                                              • Areas of growth in cider usage, despite dip in overall usage
                                                                                                                                                • Young consumers and ABs are the core cider drinkers
                                                                                                                                                  • Locally-produced cider can help to drive growth among over-35s
                                                                                                                                                    • Still room to for more flavour innovation
                                                                                                                                                      • The single-most appealing factor is a unique taste
                                                                                                                                                        • Food pairing is an underutilised opportunity for cider
                                                                                                                                                          • An appetite for knowing more about cider making
                                                                                                                                                            • Refreshment is fundamental to the enjoyment of cider
                                                                                                                                                            • Usage of Cider

                                                                                                                                                              • Areas of growth in cider usage, despite dip in overall usage
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 33: Types of cider drunk, October 2015 and October 2016
                                                                                                                                                              • Young consumers and ABs are the core cider drinkers
                                                                                                                                                                • Apple cider benefits most from in-home drinking the off-trade
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 34: Types of cider drunk, by location, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 35: Overall usage of cider, by gender, age and socio-economic group, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                              • Interest in Innovation

                                                                                                                                                                • Locally-produced cider can help to drive growth among over-35s
                                                                                                                                                                  • Local ciders can offer a USP for pubs and supermarkets
                                                                                                                                                                    • Cider traditional in other countries also resonate widely
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 36: Interest in innovation in cider, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                    • Opportunities in barrel-ageing
                                                                                                                                                                      • Still room for more flavour innovation
                                                                                                                                                                        • Dessert-flavours build associations with indulgence
                                                                                                                                                                          • The rise of sour beers could lift the profile of sour flavours within cider
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 37: Consumers who have not yet bought cider with selected flavours but would be interested in buying in the future, by age group, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                          • Scope to encourage more consumers to drink mulled cider at home
                                                                                                                                                                          • Appealing Factors

                                                                                                                                                                            • The single-most appealing factor is a unique taste
                                                                                                                                                                              • High-quality ingredients have strong appeal
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 38: Appealing factors for cider, by rank, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                              • Skilled artisanship and traditional methods resonate widely
                                                                                                                                                                              • Attitudes towards Cider

                                                                                                                                                                                • Food pairing is an underutilised opportunity for cider
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Scope to borrow cues from wine
                                                                                                                                                                                    • In-store activity is need to inspire shoppers when it matters
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Attitudes towards cider, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                    • An appetite for knowing more about cider making
                                                                                                                                                                                      • The cider offering can be made into a bigger selling point for pubs
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Strong interest in cider offering
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Social media offers a platform for driving venues’ cider credentials
                                                                                                                                                                                          • What Defines a “Great” Cider?

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Refreshment is fundamental to the enjoyment of cider
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 40: Consumers’ definition of a “great” cider, October 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Authenticity chimes among over-55s
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Trendiness and sophistication are on a par among under-35s for marking a “great” cider
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Consumer research methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix – Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total cider market, by value, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total cider market, by volume, 2016-21
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Forecast methodology

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                      To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Cider - UK - January 2017

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