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Coffee - US - December 2009

As the nation responded to recessionary pressures in 2008 and 2009, millions of Americans engaged in subtle lifestyle changes in an effort to maintain a high standard of living, while reducing expenditures. Among the most common lifestyle change is the tendency to spend more time cooking and entertaining at home while spending less on eating and entertainment outside the home. While demand for coffee remains relatively strong, it is also clear that consumers have become more fickle and discerning. Therefore, it is critical that marketers and product developers carefully examine sales trends—as well as the attitudes and behaviors of various consumer segments—in order to ensure optimal messaging and product positioning. Doing so can make the difference between success and failure in today’s highly competitive market.

This report provides strategic insight for coffee manufacturers and distributors. More specifically, it addresses the following questions:

  • How have retail sales of coffee fluctuated in recent years?
  • What sub-categories (e.g., roasted, instant, RTD and additives) are performing best during recession and which have shown the largest declines in retail sales?
  • Which retail channels are performing best during the recession?
  • How have sales of organic and fair trade coffee fluctuated within the natural channel in recent years, and how are sales in that channel likely to change in the future?
  • What are the key market drivers and how are trends impacting retail sales?
  • What are the most successful brands of roasted coffee, instant coffee, RTD and additives in the U.S., and what is driving growth of these brands?
  • How are leading companies marketing the most successful brands?
  • What are the central themes of the campaigns being used to promote the most successful brands?
  • What are the key elements of products that tend to sell well during the recession?
  • How has usage within the US fluctuated in recent years?
  • Which demographic and lifestyle segments tend to use the most coffee and which tend to use the least?
  • How do attitudes about the health effects of consumption vary between various demographic groups?

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Sales data
            • Consumer survey data
              • Advertising creative
                • Abbreviations and terms
                  • Abbreviations
                    • Terms
                    • Executive Summary

                        • Market continues to grow, despite recession
                          • Roasted drives overall growth as additives and RTD decline sharply
                            • Private label products boost grocery channel sales, while drug stores post declines
                              • Aging population and growth of Hispanic segment drive market growth
                                • Brand share—Roasted coffee
                                  • Brand share—Instant coffee
                                    • Brand share—Ready-to-drink coffee
                                      • Brand share—Coffee additive/flavoring, substitutes and concentrates
                                        • Incidence of use remained between 77% and 79% from 2002-09
                                          • Most are not brand loyal but Folgers and Maxwell House dominate market
                                            • Grocery stores, Walmart and coffeehouses are most popular channels
                                              • Desire to relax, gain energy, and improve concentration drive usage
                                                • Hispanics are heavy users and many prefer instant
                                                • Insights and Opportunities

                                                  • Target young adults by teaching how to create fun drinks and experiences
                                                    • Leverage bulk to target upper-income households and create value
                                                      • Coffee as a better-for-you beverage
                                                        • A mixed bag?
                                                        • Inspire Insights

                                                            • Trend: Brand Tribe
                                                              • What it’s about: To be successful, a brand doesn’t need a user base. It needs a tribe
                                                                • Create community around the brand with stories and gatherings
                                                                  • Taking it to the streets
                                                                    • Trend: Customization
                                                                      • What it’s about: Getting what you want, the way you want it
                                                                        • Playing with flavor and caffeine to create unique offerings
                                                                        • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                          • Key points
                                                                            • Sales expected to grow in 2009, despite recession
                                                                              • Coffee sales and forecast
                                                                                • Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of coffee, at current prices, 2004-14
                                                                                • Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
                                                                              • Walmart sales
                                                                              • Competitive Context

                                                                                • QSRs positioned to compete more directly with retail
                                                                                  • Energy drinks and shots could undermine future growth
                                                                                    • Natural or “better for you” alternatives to coffee coming online
                                                                                    • Segment Performance

                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                        • Ground roasted packaged coffee drives category growth
                                                                                          • Figure 3: FDMx sales of coffee, by segment, 2008 and 2009
                                                                                      • Segment Performance—Roasted Coffee

                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                          • Roasted category drives overall category growth
                                                                                            • Sales and forecast of roasted coffee
                                                                                              • Figure 4: Total U.S. sales and forecast of roasted coffee, at current prices, 2004-14
                                                                                          • Segment Performance—Instant Coffee

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Sales of instant expected to grow slightly in 2009
                                                                                                • Sales and forecast of instant coffee
                                                                                                  • Figure 5: Total U.S. sales and forecast of instant coffee, at current prices, 2004-14
                                                                                              • Segment Performance—Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Coffee

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • RTD sales plummet in the face of recession
                                                                                                    • Sales and forecast of ready-to-drink coffee beverages
                                                                                                      • Figure 6: Total U.S. sales and forecast of ready-to-drink coffee, at current prices, 2004-14
                                                                                                  • Segment Performance—Coffee Additive/Flavoring, Substitutes, and Concentrates

                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                      • Sales of additives suffer as consumers focus more on value
                                                                                                        • Sales and forecast of coffee additive/flavoring, substitutes and concentrates
                                                                                                          • Figure 7: Total U.S. sales and forecast of coffee additive/flavoring, substitutes, and concentrates, at current prices, 2004-14
                                                                                                      • Retail Channels

                                                                                                        • Food stores gain an edge on Mass in 2009
                                                                                                          • Figure 8: U.S. retail sales of coffee, by channel, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                                      • Retail Channels—Food Stores

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Grocery wins with premium private label products and convenience
                                                                                                            • Food store sales of coffee
                                                                                                              • Figure 9: U.S. food store sales of coffee, at current prices, 2004-09
                                                                                                          • Retail Channels—Drug Stores

                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                              • Growth decelerates as consumers search more for bargains and variety
                                                                                                                • Drug store sales of coffee
                                                                                                                  • Figure 10: U.S. drug store coffee sales, at current prices, 2004-09
                                                                                                              • Retail Channels—Mass and Other

                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                  • Sale at mass expected to grow in 2009
                                                                                                                    • Mass merchandiser sales of coffee
                                                                                                                      • Figure 11: U.S. mass merchandiser sales of coffee, at current prices, 2004-09
                                                                                                                  • Natural Channel/SPINS

                                                                                                                      • Sales of branded items dip but there are still opportunities in bulk
                                                                                                                        • Figure 12: Natural product supermarket retail sales of coffee, at current prices, 2007-09
                                                                                                                        • Figure 13: Natural product supermarket retail sales of coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-09
                                                                                                                      • Natural channel sales by segment
                                                                                                                        • Figure 14: Natural product supermarket retail sales of coffee, by segment, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                                                      • Brand share
                                                                                                                          • Figure 15: Select manufacturer brand natural supermarket sales of coffee, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                                                        • Organic coffee sales
                                                                                                                          • Figure 16: Natural product supermarket retail sales of coffee, by organic/non-organic, 2007 and 2009
                                                                                                                      • Market Drivers

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Rise in number of 55-74s drives growth, for now
                                                                                                                              • Figure 17: Population by age, 2004-14
                                                                                                                            • Rapid growth of Hispanic segment drives growth
                                                                                                                              • Figure 18: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2004-14
                                                                                                                            • Affinity for coffee and need for energy drive increased consumption
                                                                                                                              • Figure 19: Reason for drinking more coffee than last year, September 2009
                                                                                                                            • Lifestyle changes and other beverages drive down consumption
                                                                                                                              • Figure 20: Reason for drinking less coffee than last year, September 2009
                                                                                                                            • Average retail price declines slightly as consumers embrace value brands
                                                                                                                              • Figure 21: Average quarterly retail price paid for roasted and ground coffee in the U.S., Q3 2008-Q2 2009
                                                                                                                          • Leading Companies

                                                                                                                            • J.M. Smucker Co. posts strong growth after Folgers merger
                                                                                                                              • Kraft fends off recession with Maxwell House
                                                                                                                                • North American Coffee Partnership loses share as RTD sales plummet
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 22: Select manufacturer FDMx sales of coffee, 2008-09
                                                                                                                              • Brand Share—Roasted Coffee

                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                  • Well-known, mid-range brands drive category growth
                                                                                                                                    • Driving category growth: Folgers, Dunkin’ Donuts and Private Label
                                                                                                                                      • Manufacturer and brand sales of roasted coffee
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 23: Leading FDMx brand sales and market share of roasted coffee, 2008-09
                                                                                                                                    • Brand Share—Instant Coffee

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Category growth flat but some established brands post growth
                                                                                                                                          • Manufacturer and brand sales of instant coffee
                                                                                                                                            • Figure 24: Leading FDMx brand sales and market share of instant coffee, 2008-09
                                                                                                                                        • Brand Share—Ready-to-Drink Coffee

                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                            • NACP losses ground as Bolthouse gains slightly with wellness position
                                                                                                                                              • Manufacturer and brand sales of ready-to-drink coffee beverages
                                                                                                                                                • Figure 25: Leading FDMx brand sales and market share of ready-to-drink coffee, 2008-09
                                                                                                                                            • Brand Share—Coffee Additive/Flavoring, Substitutes and Concentrates

                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                • Sales of additives decline as consumers focus more on mid-range
                                                                                                                                                  • Manufacturer and brand sales of coffee additive/flavoring, substitutes and concentrates
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 26: Leading FDMx brand sales and market share of coffee additive/flavoring, substitutes and concentrates, 2008-09
                                                                                                                                                • Innovation and Innovators

                                                                                                                                                  • Instant coffee goes upscale: Via by Starbucks
                                                                                                                                                    • Luigi Lavazza leverages the ethical trend
                                                                                                                                                      • Supporting the troops with a Cup: The Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf campaign
                                                                                                                                                        • Leveraging the home cocktail trend: A Coffee Martini blend
                                                                                                                                                        • Brands and the Advertising Landscape

                                                                                                                                                          • Overview of the brand landscape
                                                                                                                                                            • Folgers: The power of value, Americana and high awareness
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 27: Brand analysis of Folgers
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 28: Folgers morning energy ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 29: Folgers young family ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                            • Folgers Online
                                                                                                                                                              • Maxwell House: Freshness and value for the masses
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 30: Brand analysis of Maxwell House, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 31: Maxwell House flavor lock lid ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 32: Maxwell House taste ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                              • Maxwell House Online
                                                                                                                                                                • Nescafé
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 33: Nescafé Hispanic ad, 2009
                                                                                                                                                              • Consumption

                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                  • Incidence of use remains steady
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Household consumption of coffee, 2002-09
                                                                                                                                                                  • Continue to appeal to heavy users (aged 45+), but need to reach younger segments too
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 35: Personal coffee consumption and frequency of consumption, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Lifestyle changes and health concerns drive down usage among some
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Coffee consumption compared to last year, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Most drink caffeinated coffee; decaf usage highest among elderly
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Coffee preferences, caffeinated vs. decaffeinated, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Target young adults with sweet drinks and bold names
                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 38: Coffee preferences, cream and sweet coffee drink usage, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                • Brand Preferences

                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                    • Most drinkers experiment with brands
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Coffee brand loyalty, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • National brands far more popular than gourmet and private label
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: Types of coffee brands purchased for at home consumption, 2006-09
                                                                                                                                                                    • Older Americans tend to prefer national brands
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Types of coffee brands purchased for at home consumption, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Lower-income consumers drive sales of dominant national brands
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Brands of ground and whole bean coffee used in the household, by HH income, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Folgers and Maxwell House dominate the instant segment
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Brands of instant coffee used in the household, by HH income, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 44: Flavors of instant flavored coffee used in the household, by HH income, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Starbucks closely associated with espresso/cappuccino
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 45: Household consumption of espresso/cappuccino, by HH income, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                  • Purchase Habits

                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                      • Many young adults shop coffeehouses and C-stores
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Coffee purchase locations—at home usage, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 47: Coffee purchase locations—at home usage, by HH income, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Fair trade and organic appeal primary to young adults
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 48: Types of coffee purchased, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                    • Attitudes and Opinions

                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                        • Mature adults more likely to associate drinking coffee with relaxation
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: Positive perceived effects of coffee, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Young adults considerably more likely to see coffee as a bad habit
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 50: Negative attitudes towards coffee, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • About one in five users view coffee as an element of their social life
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 51: Coffee as an important part of social life, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      • Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • Hispanics report the highest incidence of use
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 52: Coffee consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Whites and Asians more likely to prefer caffeinated and whole bean
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 53: Use of caffeinated or decaffeinated ground or whole bean coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 54: Use of ground or whole bean coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Hispanics and blacks somewhat more likely to prefer national brands
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 55: Ground or whole bean coffee brand use, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Instant popular with Spanish speakers
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 56: Consumption of instant coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 57: Consumption of instant coffee, by language spoken in the home, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 58: Instant coffee brand use, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • RTD coffee drinks garner least usage among white consumers
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 59: Use of RTD coffee drinks, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 60: Brands of RTD coffee drinks consumed, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Blacks less likely to use ethical products
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 61: Types of coffee purchased, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Blacks considerably less likely to recognize benefits of coffee consumption
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 62: Positive perceived effects of coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 63: Preference for sweetened coffee drinks over coffee, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                          • Blacks and Hispanics flock to value channels
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 64: Coffee purchase locations, at home usage, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                        • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                            • Nationalists (44%)
                                                                                                                                                                              • Premiums (30%)
                                                                                                                                                                                • Decaffeinators (26%)
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 65: Coffee clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 66: Coffee consumption and attitudes, by coffee clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 67: Frequency of consumption, by coffee clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 68: Brands of coffee purchase, at home usage, by coffee clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 69: Attitudes towards coffee, by coffee clusters, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 70: Coffee clusters, by gender, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 71: Coffee clusters, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 72: Coffee clusters, by HH income, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 73: Coffee clusters, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Custom Consumer Groups

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Men and parents tend to be heavy drinkers
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 74: Custom consumer groups with highest average number of cups consumed on days coffee is consumed, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Health concerns have little impact on the likelihood of increasing or decreasing consumption
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 75: Impact of suffering from or being diagnosed with a health condition on coffee consumption, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Working class from rural and suburban areas are heavy users
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 76: Mosaic segments with highest average consumption of regular/decaf ground or whole bean coffee, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Working class minorities represent majority of instant drinkers
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 77: Mosaic segments with the highest average daily consumption of instant coffee, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                        • IRI/Builders Panel Data

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Overview of coffee
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Ground coffee
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Consumer insights on key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 78: Brand map, selected brands of ground coffee, buying rate, by household penetration, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 79: Key purchase measures for the top brands of ground coffee, by household penetration, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Ground decaffeinated coffee
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Consumer insights on key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 80: Brand map, selected brands of ground decaffeinated coffee, buying rate, by household penetration, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 81: Key purchase measures for the top brands of ground decaffeinated coffee, by household penetration, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Instant coffee
                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Consumer insights on key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Brand map
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 82: Brand map, selected brands of instant coffee, buying rate, by household penetration, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Brand leader characteristics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Key purchase measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 83: Key purchase measures for the top brands of instant coffee, by household penetration, 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix: Additional Household Income Comparisons

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 84: Coffee consumption and preferences, by HH income, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 85: Consumption of instant coffee, by HH income, April 2008-June 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 86: Consumption compared to last year, by HH income, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 87: Brands of coffee usually purchased, by HH income, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 88: Coffee channels, by HH income, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix: Additional Age Comparisons

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 89: Coffee consumption and preferences, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 90: Consumption compared to last year, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 91: Brands of coffee usually purchased, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 92: Coffee purchase locations, at home usage, by age, September 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix: IRI/Builders Panel Data Definitions

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • IRI Consumer Network Metrics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Caribou Coffee Company Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Co-operative Group
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Coca-Cola Company (The) (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Dunkin' Brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Eight O'Clock Coffee Company, The
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Food and Drug Administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Greenfield Online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • International Coffee Organization (ICO)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Kmart Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Kraft Foods Inc. (U.S.A.)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • McDonald's U.S.A.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • National Coffee Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Nestlé USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Pepsi-Cola North America
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Procter & Gamble USA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Rainforest Alliance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Red Bull North America, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Safeway Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Specialty Coffee Association of America
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Starbucks Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Tata Coffee
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • U.S. Department of Agriculture
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Walmart Stores (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Whole Foods Market Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Wm. Bolthouse Farms Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Wolfgang Puck Worldwide Inc.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Coffee - US - December 2009

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