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Coffee - US - September 2015

Total retail sales of coffee posted 8.7% gains in estimated 2015. The strong year-over-year growth seen through 2012 slowed in 2013 and 2014 as manufacturers and consumers felt coffee’s increasing prices. Overall sales are expected to continue upward as coffee remains a popular drink in consumers’ daily beverage repertoire, and segments continue to innovate with new flavors, roasts, and brew methods. Opportunities exist in the $13 billion category for each segment, namely addressing consumers’ single-cup environmental concerns, expanding RTD usage occasions, and evolving coffee's functionality.

This report includes packaged coffee and prepared coffee beverages sold for home preparation and/or consumption. The following types of coffee are included:

  • Roasted coffee - ground and whole bean; regular and decaffeinated; non-flavored and flavored
  • Single-cup coffee - cups and pods containing pre-measured coffee for use in automatic single-cup coffee makers
  • Instant coffee - regular and decaffeinated; includes both powdered instant and liquid coffee concentrates
  • Ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee - shelf-stable or refrigerated bottled/canned single-serve prepared iced coffees and coffee drinks; refrigerated RTD coffee (half-gallons and single-serving)

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Table of contents

  1. Overview

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
      • Executive Summary

        • The issues
          • Competition at foodservice
            • Figure 1: Coffee tracker, June 2015
          • Cold-Brew, liquid coffee enhancers lacking interest
            • Figure 2: Cold brew and liquid coffee enhancer interest, June 2015
          • Single-cup’s environmental troubles
            • Figure 3: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup, June 2015
          • The opportunities
            • Segments experiencing growth
              • Figure 4: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
            • Important influencers: freshness, variety, flavor
              • Figure 5: Purchasing attributes, June 2015
            • Functional opportunities
              • Figure 6: Percent of US coffee/RTD coffee launches, by functional or plus claims, 2010- Aug 17, 2015
            • Positive single-cup perceptions and interests
              • Figure 7: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup, June 2015
            • What it means
            • The Market – What you need to know

              • Category growth expected through 2020
                • Single-cup, RTD coffee sees strongest growth
                  • Hot coffee most consumed at home
                  • Market Size and Forecast

                    • Category growth forecast to continue through 2020
                      • Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
                      • Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                  • Market Breakdown

                    • Single-cup catching up to roasted coffee segment
                      • Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Single-cup, RTD coffee segments experience growth through 2020
                      • Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Cold brew sales grow 338.9% from 2010-15
                      • Figure 13: Total US retail sales of refrigerated cold-brew/concentrate coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
                    • Other channels dominate category sales, supermarkets close behind
                      • Figure 14: Total US retail sales of coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
                    • Natural channel sales grow 56.1% from 2013-15
                      • Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-15
                    • Coffee segments see sales growth at natural channels
                      • Figure 16: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending June 2013 and June 2015
                    • Organic coffees lead in natural channels sales growth
                      • Figure 17: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, by segment and organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks June 2013-15
                  • Market Perspective

                    • Hot coffee dominates usage, fuels at-home consumption
                      • Figure 18: Coffee Tracker, June 2015
                  • Market Factors

                    • 2015 coffee prices continue to decline
                      • Figure 19: Coffee retail price, US city average, trending 2010-15
                    • Household income declines through 2013
                      • Figure 20: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2003-13
                    • Majority’s median household income $50K plus
                      • Figure 21: Median household income, by age of householder, 2013
                    • Households with families’ income increasing
                      • Figure 22: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2003-13
                    • Households with children declining, Millennials becoming parents
                      • Figure 23: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
                      • Figure 24: Households with own children, by age of householder, 2013
                    • Hispanic, Asian populations experiencing growth
                      • Figure 25: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2010-20
                      • Figure 26: Households with own children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
                  • Key Players – What You Need to Know

                    • Leading companies see MULO sales growth
                      • Coffee house brands, single-cup, RTD coffee see MULO growth
                        • Instant, decaffeinated coffee decline
                          • Opportunity for functional coffees
                          • Manufacturer Sales of Coffee

                            • Leading companies see MULO sales growth
                              • Manufacturer sales of coffee
                                • Figure 27: MULO sales of coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                • Figure 28: MULO sales of coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                            • What’s Working?

                              • Coffeehouse brands dominate MULO roasted coffee sales
                                • Figure 29: MULO sales of roasted coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                              • Single-cup MULO sales sees 19.6% growth
                                  • Figure 30: MULO sales of single cup coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                • Ready-to-drink coffees see double digit MULO sales growth
                                  • Cold brew enters MULO channels
                                    • Nitro coffee – Cold brew evolution
                                      • Figure 31: Cuvee Coffee - Nitro Coffee In Cans
                                  • What’s Struggling?

                                    • Instant coffee MULO sales decline
                                      • Figure 32: Instant coffee launches, 2010-Aug 25, 2015
                                      • Figure 33: MULO sales of single cup coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                    • Decaffeinated coffees
                                      • Figure 34: Household roasted coffee consumption, by coffee type, 2011-15
                                      • Figure 35: MULO sales of decaffeinated coffee, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                      • Figure 36: Percent of total new decaffeinated coffee products launched since 2010, by year, 2010 to Aug 27, 2015
                                  • What’s Next – Functional Coffees

                                    • Consumer looking for functionality
                                      • Figure 37: Percent of coffee/RTD coffee launches with functional or plus claims (antioxidant, digestive, prebiotic, slimming, high protein, vitamin/mineral fortified, etc), 2010- Aug 17, 2015
                                      • Figure 38: Percent of US coffee/RTD coffee launches, by functional or plus claims, 2010- Aug 17, 2015
                                    • Brands with functional attributes
                                      • Protein and vitamins/minerals
                                      • The Consumer – What You Need to Know

                                        • Majority drinks coffee
                                          • Single-cup seeing environmental impact
                                            • 33% interested in cold brew trial
                                              • 26% interested in trying liquid coffee enhancer
                                              • Core Target Audiences

                                                • Older Millennials heaviest drinkers of each coffee type
                                                  • Figure 39: Usage, by generation, June 2015
                                                • Parents, particularly fathers, a core coffee audience
                                                  • Figure 40: Usage – Any consumption, by parental status, June 2015
                                                • Higher income influences single cup, RTD consumption
                                                  • Figure 41: Usage, by household income, June 2015
                                                • Acculturated Hispanics and Asians heavy coffee consumers
                                                  • Hispanics, Asians heavy coffee drinkers, by individual consumption
                                                    • Figure 42: Usage, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2015
                                                  • Acculturated Hispanics and Asians most likely drinking roasted coffee
                                                    • Figure 43: Roasted coffee household consumption, by language spoken in household, March to August 2015
                                                    • Figure 44: Roasted coffee household consumption, by generation and income, March to August 2015
                                                • Cross-consumption Variety

                                                  • Consumers drinking a variety of brews
                                                    • Moderate drinkers drink the most variety of coffee types
                                                      • Figure 45: Usage – Any drink, by usage – Any drink, June 2015
                                                  • Roasted Grounds/Bean Consumption

                                                    • Ground coffee consumed most frequently
                                                      • Parents, Millennials, Hispanics heaviest pre-ground/bean coffee drinkers
                                                        • Millennials, Asian stand out as moderate drinkers
                                                          • Figure 46: Usage, by roasted coffee type, June 2015
                                                          • Figure 47: Usage – Any and heavy consumption, by coffee type, June 2015
                                                      • Single-cup Consumption

                                                        • Single cup coffee consumption frequency dominates espressos
                                                          • Higher income Millennials, parents heaviest users
                                                            • Higher income Millennials, parents drinking weekly
                                                              • Figure 48: Usage, by single-cup type, June 2015
                                                              • Figure 49: Usage – Any and heavy consumption, by coffee type, June 2015
                                                          • Single-Cup’s Environmental Impact

                                                            • Single-cup packaging can affect volume consumption
                                                              • Reusable pod appeal
                                                                • Recyclable programs viewed favorably
                                                                  • Figure 50: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup, June 2015
                                                                • Millennial women’s purchases most affected by environmental concerns
                                                                  • Figure 51: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup coffee – CHAID – Tree output, June 2015
                                                              • Ready-To-Drink Consumption

                                                                • RTD coffee not yet an everyday beverage
                                                                  • Older Millennials are heaviest RTD drinkers
                                                                    • Figure 52: Usage, by RTD coffee type, June 2015
                                                                    • Figure 53: Usage – Any and heavy consumption, by coffee type, June 2015
                                                                • Cold Brew

                                                                  • Majority disinterested in trying cold brew
                                                                      • Figure 54: Cold brew interest, June 2015
                                                                    • Attention to new brew methods drives cold brew interest
                                                                      • Figure 55: Cold brew –Positive attributes, by cold brew usage or interest, June 2015
                                                                    • Disliking cold brew taste is top reason for disinterest
                                                                      • Figure 56: Cold brew –Negative attributes, by cold brew interest, June 2015
                                                                  • Liquid Coffee Enhancers

                                                                    • Majority disinterested in trying liquid coffee enhancers
                                                                      • Figure 57: Liquid coffee enhancer interest, June 2015
                                                                    • Curiosity, convenience drives liquid coffee enhancer interest
                                                                      • Figure 58: Liquid coffee enhancer – Positive attributes, June 2015
                                                                    • Liquid coffee enhancer disinterest
                                                                      • Figure 59: Liquid coffee enhancer – Negative attributes, June 2015
                                                                  • Important Purchase Attributes

                                                                    • Convenience influences coffee purchase
                                                                        • Figure 60: Correspondence Analysis – Purchasing attributes, June 2015
                                                                    • Purchase Location

                                                                      • Grocery stores, mass merchandisers are top purchase locations
                                                                        • Coffee shopping habits vary most with age and presence of children
                                                                          • Household income impact
                                                                            • Figure 61: Purchase location, by usage type – Heavy drinkers, June 2015
                                                                            • Figure 62: Coffee new product/new variety/new range extension, by coffee types, by retail location, rolling year ending August 2015
                                                                        • Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations

                                                                          • Data sources
                                                                            • Sales data
                                                                              • Fan chart forecast
                                                                                • Consumer survey data
                                                                                  • Abbreviations and terms
                                                                                    • Abbreviations
                                                                                      • Terms
                                                                                      • Appendix – Market

                                                                                          • Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of roasted coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                          • Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of roasted coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                          • Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-cup coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                          • Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-cup coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                          • Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of instant coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                          • Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of instant coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                          • Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-drink and cold-brew coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                          • Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-drink and cold-brew coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                          • Figure 71: Total US retail sales of refrigerated cold-brew/concentrate coffee, at current prices, 2010-20
                                                                                          • Figure 72: Total US retail sales of refrigerated cold-brew/concentrate coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
                                                                                          • Figure 73: US supermarket sales of coffee, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                                                          • Figure 74: US drugstore sales of coffee, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                                                          • Figure 75: US sales of coffee through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
                                                                                          • Figure 76: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending June 16, 2013 and June 14, 2015
                                                                                          • Figure 77: Natural supermarket sales of coffee and coffee substitutes, by segment and organic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending June 16, 2013 and June 14, 2015
                                                                                      • Appendix – Key Players

                                                                                          • Figure 78: MULO sales of roasted coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                          • Figure 79: MULO sales of single cup coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                          • Figure 80: MULO sales of instant coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                          • Figure 81: MULO sales of ready to drink coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
                                                                                      • Appendix – CHAID Analysis

                                                                                        • Methodology
                                                                                          • Figure 82: Attitudes and behaviors toward single-cup coffee – CHAID – Table output, June 2015
                                                                                      • Appendix – Correspondence Analysis

                                                                                        • Methodology
                                                                                          • Figure 83: Purchasing attributes, JUNE 2015

                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                      • Walmart Stores (USA)

                                                                                      Coffee - US - September 2015

                                                                                      £3,199.84 (Excl.Tax)