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Coffeehouses and Donut Shops - US - May 2009

This report explores the coffeehouse and donut shop market in the U.S., identifying key developments that are changing consumer habits and perceptions about how they use them. Value—brought to the forefront by the challenged U.S. economy—emerges as a key theme throughout the report.

This report identifies differing coffee drinking habits, which consumers go to what outlets, what coffeehouses are used for the most, what consumers order the most and what they want to see more of.

The report includes insights and analysis related to the following:

  • How companies can entice value-conscious consumers without compromising on perceptions of quality
  • How to best lure customers out of their homes
  • How the use of technology can promote a company’s brand
  • How to combat the growing threat of the value and variety offered by QSRs
  • Evaluation of economic spending and its negative impact on foodservice

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Table of contents

  1. Scope and Themes

    • What you need to know
      • Definition
        • Data sources
          • Consumer survey data
            • Abbreviations and terms
              • Abbreviations
                • Terms
                • Executive Summary

                  • The challenge of a recession
                    • Starbucks drags down overall sales, but broader picture not bright either
                      • Value pricing will dictate the near future
                        • Competition growing for the coffee and snack or meal
                          • 18-34 year olds are an essential demographic
                            • Social Networking (SN): A free brand propulsion tool
                              • Innovation driven by value and variety
                                • Advertising and promotional activity
                                  • Coffee and coffee drinks usage
                                    • Coffeehouse and donut shop usage
                                      • Coffee and coffee drink spending trends and rationales
                                        • Coffeehouse and donut shop drinks drunk most often
                                          • How coffeehouses are used
                                            • What coffeehouse patrons would like to see more of
                                            • Insights and Opportunities

                                              • Key points
                                                • Price incentives: Now more than ever
                                                  • The issue
                                                    • Targeting younger customers is essential
                                                      • The key strategy is providing cost incentives
                                                          • Figure 1: Incentives to dine at restaurants, by age, November 2008
                                                        • A look to Dunkin’ Donuts provides some cues:
                                                          • Making the most of technology
                                                            • The tool: Social networking
                                                              • The tool: Online reviews
                                                                • The tool: Mobile technology
                                                                  • Afternoon delight
                                                                    • Figure 2: How coffeehouses are used, February 2009
                                                                • Competitive Context

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Consumers walk out on coffeehouses
                                                                      • Takeaway
                                                                        • The bottom line
                                                                          • Figure 3: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending rationales, February 2009
                                                                          • Figure 4: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending trends, February 2009
                                                                        • The economic challenge
                                                                          • Value-driven solutions
                                                                            • QSR specter looms large; McDonald’s McCafé a game changer
                                                                              • No one wants to deal with an 800-pound gorilla
                                                                                • Broader value proposition
                                                                                  • Breakfast pressure
                                                                                    • Extended hours
                                                                                      • Variety
                                                                                        • Fast casual restaurants compete on healthfulness and brand cachet
                                                                                          • For healthier options…
                                                                                            • For sampling…
                                                                                              • Work and office: A blending of the “second” and “third” spaces
                                                                                                • Takeaway
                                                                                                  • Workers rely more on office coffee service
                                                                                                  • Inspire Insights

                                                                                                      • Simplicity and Convenience
                                                                                                        • What's it about?
                                                                                                          • What we've seen: too much choice; too much juggling
                                                                                                            • Specifics: QSR (coffeehouse) plays major role
                                                                                                              • Application: cutting through the clutter
                                                                                                                • Bottom line: A comprehensive plan for simplicity
                                                                                                                • Market Size and Forecast

                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                    • An unfortunate truth: negative sales estimated for 2009
                                                                                                                      • Starbucks drags down overall sales
                                                                                                                        • But broader picture not bright either
                                                                                                                          • Value pricing will dictate the near future
                                                                                                                            • Figure 5: U.S. systemwide sales of coffeehouses and donut shops, 2006 and 2008
                                                                                                                            • Figure 6: U.S. systemwide sales of top coffeehouses and donut shops, at current prices, 2005-11*
                                                                                                                            • Figure 7: U.S. systemwide sales of top coffeehouses and donut shops, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-11*
                                                                                                                        • Segment Performance

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Coffeehouses
                                                                                                                              • Figure 8: U.S. retail coffeehouse sales at top three chains, 2006 and 2008
                                                                                                                              • Figure 9: U.S. retail coffeehouse units at top three chains, 2006 and 2008
                                                                                                                              • Figure 10: U.S. retail coffeehouse sales per unit, top three chains, 2006 and 2008
                                                                                                                            • Donut shops
                                                                                                                              • Figure 11: U.S. retail donut shop sales at top three chains, 2006 and 2008
                                                                                                                              • Figure 12: U.S. retail donut shop units at top three chains, 2006 and 2008
                                                                                                                              • Figure 13: U.S. retail donut shop sales per unit, top three chains, 2006 and 2008
                                                                                                                          • Market Drivers

                                                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                                                              • Recession hits restaurant industry
                                                                                                                                • Figure 14: Restaurant Performance Index, current situation, and expectations, November 2007-February 2009
                                                                                                                                • Figure 15: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending trends, February 2009
                                                                                                                              • Consumer confidence undermines willingness to spend at restaurants
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 16: Consumer sentiment index, 2001-08
                                                                                                                                • Is that light at the end of the tunnel?
                                                                                                                                  • 18-34 year olds: A force to be reckoned with
                                                                                                                                      • Figure 17: Population aged 18 or older, 2004-14
                                                                                                                                  • Restaurant Analysis

                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                        • Starbucks navigates a (very) rough patch
                                                                                                                                          • Current struggles
                                                                                                                                            • Plan for the future
                                                                                                                                              • Breathing life into the brand
                                                                                                                                                • What’s on the menu
                                                                                                                                                  • Core demographic profile remains steady
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 18: Starbucks demographic profile, 2007 and 2008
                                                                                                                                                  • Dunkin’ Donuts
                                                                                                                                                    • Store format innovation
                                                                                                                                                      • Going retro
                                                                                                                                                        • What’s on the menu
                                                                                                                                                          • The demographic connection
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 19: Dunkin’ Donuts demographic profile, 2007 and 2008
                                                                                                                                                          • Tim Hortons
                                                                                                                                                            • The basics
                                                                                                                                                              • Growth through expansion
                                                                                                                                                                • On the menu
                                                                                                                                                                  • Tully’s
                                                                                                                                                                  • Analysis: The Independent Coffeehouse

                                                                                                                                                                    • Intelligentsia continues to ride the “Third Wave”
                                                                                                                                                                      • Bridgeport Coffee Company: A true neighborhood independent
                                                                                                                                                                      • Restaurant Brand Qualities

                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                          • Social networking as a brand propulsion tool
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 20: Viral marketing on social networking sites, October 2008
                                                                                                                                                                          • Dunkin’ Donuts
                                                                                                                                                                            • Starbucks
                                                                                                                                                                            • Innovation and Innovators

                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                • Spinning value
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Rewarding the regulars
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Cross-pollinating beverages
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Starbucks works to shed its “evil of excess” image
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Healthy menu choices arrive
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Advertising and Promotion

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Everybody loves to pick on Starbucks
                                                                                                                                                                                              • PJs: Starbucks isn’t local
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 21: PJs local positioning, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 22: PJs: roasted locally, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Dunkin’ Donuts: Highlighting bargains
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 23: Dunkin’ Donuts value breakfast, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 24: Dunkin’ Donuts: Dunkin’ Deals, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 25: Dunkin’ Donuts LTO, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Starbucks: “Do-gooders”
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 26: Starbucks: “What if?,” 2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 27: Starbucks: “What if?” Africa, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 28: Starbucks, volunteering, 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Coffee and Coffee Drinks Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Bring more than coffee to the table to target 18-34 year olds
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 29: Coffee and coffee drink usage, by selected demographics, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Coffeehouse and Donut Shop Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Purchased drinks
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 30: Purchased drinks at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by age, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 31: Mean purchases of drinks at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by age, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 32: Purchased drinks at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by household income, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 33: Mean purchase of drinks at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by household income, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Purchased food
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 34: Purchased food at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by age, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 35: Mean purchase of food at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by age, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 36: Purchased food at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by household income, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 37: Mean purchases of food at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by household income, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Coffee & Coffee Drink Spending Trends and Rationales

                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Spending trends point downward
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 38: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending trends, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 39: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending trends, by age, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 40: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending trends, by household income, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Spending rationales show lure of home
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 41: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending rationales, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 42: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending rationales, by age, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 43: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending rationales, by region, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Coffeehouse and Donut Shop Drinks Drunk Most Often

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Hot coffee the most popular drink
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 44: Coffeehouse and donut shop drinks drunk most often, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Coffeehouse and donut shop drinks drunk most often, by age, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 46: Coffeehouse and donut shop drinks drunk most often, by region, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • How Coffeehouses Are Used

                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • “Grab and go” remains the leading choice
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 47: How coffeehouses are used, April 2008 and February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 48: How coffeehouses are used, by age, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: How coffeehouses are used, by HH income, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 50: How coffeehouses are used, by region, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • What Coffeehouse Patrons Would Like to See More Of

                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Food enhancements and coffee variety top the most wanted list
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 51: What coffeehouse patrons would like to see more of, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 52: What coffeehouse patrons would like to see more of, by gender, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 53: What coffeehouse patrons would like to see more of, by age, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: What coffeehouse patrons would like to see more of, by region, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Custom Consumer Groups: Brand Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Favorite coffeehouse/donut shop brand, by health/indulgence preference
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 55: Favorite coffeehouse/donut shop brand, by health and indulgence preference, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Favorite coffeehouse/donut shop brand, by on-the-go lifestyle preference
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 56: Favorite coffeehouse/donut shop brand, by on-the-go lifestyle preference, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Appendix: Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 57: Lifestyle attitudes, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Custom Consumer Groups: Spending Rationales

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 58: Coffee cost saving and convenience factors, by healthfulness and on-the-go lifestyle, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Appendix: Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 59: Lifestyle attitudes, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Cluster Analysis

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Menu-unenthusiasts
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Who they are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Starbucks and other coffeehouse chain averse
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Who they are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Frequent eat and drink relaxers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Who they are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 60: Coffeehouse drinker clusters, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 61: Lifestyle attitudes, by coffeehouse drinker clusters, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 62: Purchased drinks at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by coffeehouse drinker clusters, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: Purchased food at coffeehouses and donut shops in past month, by coffeehouse drinker clusters, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 64: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending trends, by coffeehouse drinker clusters, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 65: Coffeehouse and donut shop coffee-spending rationales, by coffeehouse drinker clusters, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 66: What coffeehouse patrons would like to see more of, by coffeehouse drinker clusters, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 67: How coffeehouses are used, by coffeehouse drinker clusters, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 68: Coffeehouse drinker clusters, by gender, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 69: Coffeehouse drinker clusters, by age group, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 70: Coffeehouse drinker clusters, by income group, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 71: Coffeehouse drinker clusters, by race, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 72: Coffeehouse drinker clusters, by Hispanic origin, February 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Appendix: Trade Associations

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • AOL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Barnes & Noble, Inc
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Burger King Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Caribou Coffee Company Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • CBS Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Citysearch
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Cold Stone Creamery
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Dunkin' Brands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Einstein Noah Restaurant Group Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Facebook, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Google, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Greenfield Online
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • McDonald's U.S.A.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Naked Juice Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • National Coffee Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • National Restaurant Association (NRA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Panera Bread Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Peet's Coffee & Tea, Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Smoothie King Franchises Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sonic Corp.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Specialty Coffee Association of America
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Starbucks Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Target Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Wendy's Company
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Tim Hortons (USA)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Tops
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Tully's Coffee Corporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • U.S. Bureau of the Census
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • U.S. Department of Agriculture
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • University of Michigan, The
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • USA Today
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Yelp Inc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • YouTube, Inc.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Coffeehouses and Donut Shops - US - May 2009

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