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Commercial Property - UK - July 2015

“The UK’s current mild deflation is mainly due to a sharp fall in oil prices rather than weak demand in the UK, which is not expected to pose a threat to the commercial property market. Occupier demand and activity remains healthy across keys sectors of the commercial property market, while deflation is sustaining property’s appeal to investors by delaying interest rate rises.”

– Claudia Preedy, Industrial Analyst

This report addresses the following key questions concerning the UK commercial property market:

  • How have key sectors of the commercial property market performed over the last few years?
  • Who are the biggest investor types in the key sectors of the commercial property market?
  • Which sectors of the market are most attractive to investors?
  • How is the market expected to perform over the next few years? 

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Table of contents

  1. Executive Summary

      • The market
        • Commercial property market displays robust performance in 2014
          • Figure 1: Value of UK commercial property market, 200914
        • Market recovery led by London
          • Investor-owned share of commercial property rises from 48% in 2009 to 58% in 2014
            • Figure 2: Investor-owned share of UK commercial property market, 2009-14
          • Retail remains largest sector of total commercial property stock
            • Office represent strongest growth sector
              • More robust economic performance boosts industrial property sector in 2014
                • Capital value of “other” commercial sector up 5% in 2014
                  • Figure 3: Segmentation of the UK commercial property market, by sector, 201014
                • Market factors
                  • Low interest environment exerts positive influence on commercial property market
                    • Relaxation of planning policy for the conversion of office space into residential use contributes to current office space supply shortages
                      • Companies
                        • Strong rise in foreign investment – Especially in London office sector
                          • Real Estate Investment Funds (REITs) dominate shopping centre sector
                            • UK institutions hold about a fifth of the investor-owned commercial property stock
                              • Figure 4: Holdings in commercial property market, by investor type, 2014
                            • What we think
                            • Key Insights

                                • How has the relaxation of planning policy for the conversion of office space into residential impacted the office market?
                                  • Do potential interest rate rises and the current low inflation environment pose a threat to the commercial property market?
                                    • Is investor interest in the supermarket sector starting to wane?
                                      • What have been the recent trends in commercial property yields?
                                        • Who are the main investors in the UK commercial property market?
                                          • Outside the south east, which region is expected to provide the strongest opportunities for investors?
                                          • Introduction

                                              • Definitions
                                                • Methodology
                                                  • Abbreviations
                                                    • Market positioning
                                                      • The commercial property performance cycle
                                                      • UK Economy

                                                        • Overview
                                                          • Figure 5: UK GDP quarterly development, 2003-15
                                                          • Figure 6: UK GDP in economic downturns and recoveries since 1979
                                                        • Inflation
                                                          • Interest rates
                                                            • House prices
                                                              • Consumer spending
                                                                • Manufacturing
                                                                  • Business investment
                                                                    • Figure 7: UK GFCF 2003-15
                                                                • Market Factors

                                                                  • Key points
                                                                    • Economic factors
                                                                      • Record low interest rates provide positive impetus for investment market
                                                                        • UK Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for services industries
                                                                          • UK manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI)
                                                                            • Retail sales and rise in online sales
                                                                              • Figure 8: Growth of value of retail sales at current prices seasonally adjusted, 2005-15
                                                                            • Other factors
                                                                              • Impact of planning laws on commercial property supply
                                                                                • Supply and demand factors
                                                                                  • Business rates
                                                                                    • Return on property investment
                                                                                      • Figure 9: IPD UK Annual Property Index, December 2014
                                                                                    • Non-residential property transactions
                                                                                      • Figure 10: UK non-residential property transaction completions, by country, 2010-15
                                                                                      • Figure 11: UK non-residential property transaction completions, 2010-15
                                                                                    • Private commercial construction output
                                                                                      • Figure 12: Long term trend in private commercial construction output in Great Britain, 1970-2014
                                                                                      • Figure 13: Analysis of private commercial construction in Great Britain, by type, 2010-14
                                                                                    • Private industrial construction output
                                                                                      • Figure 14: Long term trend in private industrial construction output in Great Britain, 1970-2014
                                                                                      • Figure 15: Analysis of private industrial new construction work in Great Britain, by sector 2010-14
                                                                                  • Market Size and Segmentation

                                                                                    • Key points
                                                                                      • Overview
                                                                                        • Investors’ share of commercial property market on the up
                                                                                          • Investors moving into new sectors
                                                                                            • Figure 16: Value of UK commercial property market, 2009-14
                                                                                            • Figure 17: Value of UK commercial property market, 2009-14
                                                                                            • Figure 18: Investor share of UK commercial property market, 2009-14
                                                                                            • Figure 19: UK commercial property floorspace and rental value, 2007-13
                                                                                          • Market segmentation
                                                                                            • Segmentation by sector
                                                                                              • Figure 20: Segmentation of the UK commercial property market, by sector, 2010-14
                                                                                              • Figure 21: Sector share of investor-owned commercial property stock, 2014
                                                                                            • Segmentation by investor-type
                                                                                              • Figure 22: Holdings in commercial property market, by investor type, 2013-14
                                                                                              • Figure 23: Investor share of commercial property market, by sector, South East and rest of UK, 2014
                                                                                          • Office Sector

                                                                                            • Key points
                                                                                              • Overview
                                                                                                • Developers and investors returning to speculative office developments
                                                                                                  • Figure 24: Capital value of the UK office market, 2010-14
                                                                                                  • Figure 25: UK offices market, by region, 2014
                                                                                                  • Figure 26: Office property transactions in Great Britain, 2013-15
                                                                                                  • Figure 27: Office property transactions by investor type, year-to-date 2015
                                                                                                  • Figure 28: UK office floorspace and rental value, 2007-13
                                                                                              • Retail Sector

                                                                                                • Key points
                                                                                                  • Overview
                                                                                                    • Investor activity in retail sector up in 2014
                                                                                                      • Investor interest in supermarket assets starting to wane due to difficulties faced by large operators
                                                                                                          • Figure 29: Capital value of the UK retail property market, 2010-14
                                                                                                          • Figure 30: UK retail property market, by sector, 2014
                                                                                                          • Figure 31: Retail property transactions in Great Britain, 2013-15
                                                                                                          • Figure 32: Shopping centre property transactions by investor type, year-to-date 2015
                                                                                                          • Figure 33: Retail warehouse property transactions by investor type, year-to-date 2015
                                                                                                          • Figure 34: Shop/Supermarket property transactions by investor type, year-to-date 2015
                                                                                                          • Figure 35: UK retail floorspace and rental value, 2007-13
                                                                                                        • Retail sector development pipeline
                                                                                                          • Figure 36: Shopping centre development pipeline, 2004-14
                                                                                                          • Figure 37: Retail warehouse development pipeline, 2004-14
                                                                                                          • Figure 38: Grocery outlets development pipeline, 2004-14
                                                                                                      • Industrial Sector

                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                          • Overview
                                                                                                            • Investors increasingly turning to industrial & logistics sector
                                                                                                                • Figure 39: Capital value of the UK industrial property market, 2010-14
                                                                                                                • Figure 40: UK industrial property market, by region, 2014
                                                                                                                • Figure 41: Industrial property transactions in Great Britain, 2013-15
                                                                                                                • Figure 42: Industrial property transactions by investor type, year-to-date 2015
                                                                                                                • Figure 43: UK industrial floorspace and rental value, 2007-13
                                                                                                              • Upswing in speculative development in logistics sector driven by strong occupier demand
                                                                                                                • Figure 44: Industrial speculative development under construction, May 2012-February 2015
                                                                                                            • Other Commercial Sector

                                                                                                              • Key points
                                                                                                                • Overview
                                                                                                                  • Investor confidence has returned to hotel sector
                                                                                                                    • London most active market for hotel transactions globally
                                                                                                                      • Healthy hotel development pipeline in major cities across the UK
                                                                                                                        • Figure 45: Active hotel development pipeline by grading, Q4 2014
                                                                                                                      • Leisure sector returning to more healthy performance in line with improved consumer spending
                                                                                                                          • Figure 46: Capital value of the UK other commercial property market, 2010-14
                                                                                                                          • Figure 47: UK “other” commercial property market, by sector, 2014
                                                                                                                          • Figure 48: Property transactions in the leisure sector in Great Britain, 2013-15
                                                                                                                          • Figure 49: UK “other” commercial floorspace and rental value, 2007-13
                                                                                                                      • Regional Analysis

                                                                                                                        • Key points
                                                                                                                          • Regional analysis of non-domestic properties in England & Wales
                                                                                                                            • Figure 50: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by sector and region, as at 31 March 2014
                                                                                                                            • Figure 51: Rateable value of non-domestic properties in England & Wales, by sector and region, as at 31 March 2014
                                                                                                                          • Regional analysis of commercial property transactions
                                                                                                                            • Figure 52: Commercial property transactions in Great Britain, by region, 2013-15
                                                                                                                            • Figure 53: Regional importance in commercial property transactions, 2013-15
                                                                                                                        • Market Trends

                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                            • Development of commercial property yields
                                                                                                                              • Figure 54: Prime market yields, by sector, 2007-14
                                                                                                                            • Rental price developments
                                                                                                                              • Figure 55: Prime office rents in the UK, December 2011-December 2014
                                                                                                                              • Figure 56: Prime retail rents in the UK, December 2011-December 2014
                                                                                                                              • Figure 57: Prime industrial rents in the UK, December 2011-December 2014
                                                                                                                            • Trends in average lease lengths
                                                                                                                                • Figure 58: Average length of new leases, 2003 and 2013
                                                                                                                              • Shift from owner-occupied towards rented commercial property
                                                                                                                                • Commercial property development activity
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 59: Commercial development activity, 2010-15
                                                                                                                                • Trends in commercial property lending
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 60: Outstanding debt secured by commercial property lender, by lender type, 2014
                                                                                                                                • 2014 sees value of new loans on commercial property reach highest level since 2008
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 61: Allocation of loans secured by commercial property, by lender type, 2014
                                                                                                                                  • Figure 62: Allocation of loan books by property sector, 2004-14
                                                                                                                                • Loan-to-value ratios rise as investors are seeking riskier, higher returns
                                                                                                                                • Industry Structure

                                                                                                                                  • Key points
                                                                                                                                    • Overview
                                                                                                                                      • Strong rise in overseas investors
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 63: Holdings in commercial property market, by investor type, 2014
                                                                                                                                        • Figure 64: Biggest investor type in each commercial property sector, 2014
                                                                                                                                      • REITs
                                                                                                                                        • Overseas investors
                                                                                                                                          • Institutional investors
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 65: Holdings in buildings, property, land and new construction work by institutional groups, 2010-13
                                                                                                                                              • Figure 66: Net investment in buildings, property, land and new construction work by institutional groups, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                          • Company Profiles

                                                                                                                                            • British Land

                                                                                                                                                • Major recent acquisitions and disposals
                                                                                                                                                  • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 67: Financial analysis of British Land, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                • Land Securities

                                                                                                                                                    • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 68: Financial analysis of Land Securities, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                    • Great Portland Estates

                                                                                                                                                        • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 69: Financial analysis of Great Portland Estates, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                      • Hammerson

                                                                                                                                                          • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 70: Financial analysis of Hammerson, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                        • Intu Properties

                                                                                                                                                            • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 71: Financial analysis of Intu Properties, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                          • Derwent London

                                                                                                                                                              • Recent acquisitional activity
                                                                                                                                                                • Company strategy and outlook
                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 72: Financial analysis of Derwent London, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                              • A & J Mucklow Group

                                                                                                                                                                  • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 73: Financial analysis of A & J Mucklow Group, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                  • Hansteen Holdings

                                                                                                                                                                      • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 74: Financial analysis of Hansteen Holdings, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 75: Turnover analysis of Hansteen Holdings, by geographic segment, 2013 and 2014
                                                                                                                                                                    • Daejan Holdings

                                                                                                                                                                        • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 76: Financial analysis of Daejan Holdings, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                      • SEGRO

                                                                                                                                                                          • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 77: Financial analysis of SEGRO, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                        • Shaftesbury

                                                                                                                                                                            • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 78: Financial analysis of Shaftesbury, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                          • Workspace Group

                                                                                                                                                                              • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                                                • Figure 79: Financial analysis of Workspace Group, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                            • Bruntwood

                                                                                                                                                                                • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Figure 80: Financial analysis of Bruntwood, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                              • LondonMetric Property

                                                                                                                                                                                  • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 81: Financial analysis of LondonMetric Property, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                • Grosvenor Group

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Company strategy
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Figure 82: Financial analysis of Grosvenor Group, 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Standard Life Investments (Holdings)

                                                                                                                                                                                      • Company outlook
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Figure 83: Financial analysis of Standard Life Investments (Holdings), 2009-13
                                                                                                                                                                                    • Legal & General Property

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Figure 84: Financial analysis of Legal & General Property, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                      • M&G Real Estate

                                                                                                                                                                                            • Figure 85: Financial analysis of M&G Real Estate, 2010-14
                                                                                                                                                                                        • Market Forecast

                                                                                                                                                                                          • Key points
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Commercial and industrial construction output forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 86: Forecast private commercial construction output in Great Britain, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 87: Forecast of private commercial construction in Great Britain, by sector, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 88: Forecast private industrial construction output in Great Britain, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Figure 89: Forecast of private industrial new construction work in Great Britain, by sector 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                                                            • Commercial property market forecast
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Commercial property remains an attractive investment option
                                                                                                                                                                                                • Regions to attract increased investment
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 90: Forecast of UK commercial property market, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 91: Development of the UK commercial property capital value, 2009-14 (historic) and 2015-19 (forecast)
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 92: Projected investor share of UK commercial property market, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Market forecast segmentation
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 93: Forecast segmentation of the UK commercial property market, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Figure 94: Forecast segmentation of the UK commercial property market, 2015-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Key trends by sector
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Offices
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Industrial
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • “Other” commercial property
                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Further Sources and Contacts

                                                                                                                                                                                                            • Trade associations and bodies
                                                                                                                                                                                                              • British Property Federation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • The Association of Real Estate Funds
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • British Council for Offices
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • The Commercial Real Estate Finance Council Europe
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • The Investment Association
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • The Investment Property Forum
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          • Trade exhibitions and conferences
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            • RICS Commercial Property Conference 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              • MIPIM UK 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                • Trade magazines
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Estates Gazette
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Property Magazine International
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Property Week
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        • Property Wire

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Companies Covered

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        To learn more about the companies covered in this report please contact us.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Commercial Property - UK - July 2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        £995.00 (Excl.Tax)